Say goodbye Germany, then the rest of the EU

85,433 Views | 749 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Madman
Zergling Rush
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Quote:

Gazprom Reportedly Declares Force Majeure, Will Halt Gas Flows To Germany Indefinitely

Already days before the July 22 European "Doomsday" when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end - but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its "good functioning" due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions - the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer.

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, "Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters." The letter is reportedly dated July 14.

The letter invoked "extraordinary" circumstances outside the company's control, Reuters continues, citing a source saying the customer in question is Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

As we've been detailing, German authorities have of late taken unprecedented steps in anticipation of an enduring Russian gas halt, essentially dimming the lights across the country - which has included everything from limiting hot water, to shutting down swimming pools, to quite literally dimming city street lights as it entered "alarm" stage over dwindling supply.

It seems this letter declaring its legal release from supply obligations going back to June 14 is in preparation for definitive action on July 22, namely that the pipeline's operations are likely to remain suspended.

BS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe: It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in the Stoxx 600 and the euro would drop to 90 cents. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely

Looks like the Russians grew wary of waiting to tell Germany to F-off.

No Russia natural gas is a head shot. Without a miracle, it's just a matter of time before the German economy crumbles and takes the EU with it.......And the rest of the western world too.


TefIon Don
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AG
So tired of Trump being right…..about everything.
pfo
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This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.
LRHF
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This will have worldwide impacts as Germany manufactures lots of goods.
Fireman
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**** em. Let them live off solar and wind energy.
Clob94
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Anyone got eyes on those German clowns that laughed at Trump during that speech?


They still laughing?
aggiehawg
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pfo said:

This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. Two sides to that transaction. Can they get the same price for the same volume somewhere else?
aginresearch
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This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.
BCG Disciple
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pfo said:

This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.
Pardon my unit of measurement math, but that's about $45/mcf, compared with Henry hub currently at $7.25. Just knowing how this impacts our price of electricity, I'd have a difficult time watching my electric bill go from $300 to $1800.
Justin2010
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For decades Pat Buchanan has been warning of the dangers of allowing your nation to be less and less self-reliant.

We're getting a taste of the fruits of globalism now, and they're bitter.
TRX
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Good. They deserve it.

We will too when we lose power and / or prices continue to skyrocket because renewables can't keep up.
FJB
BigRobSA
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aginresearch said:

This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.


How has he not been assassinated, yet? Not from without, but within. Serious question.
aginresearch
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Also United States: Thanks for the business, Russia!
Get Off My Lawn
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It's interesting that you've gotta guess WHICH Germany crushing circumstance a thread will be about when clicking it: gas or their population entering retirement.
aginresearch
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He has systematically purged his enemies of 25 years. There's really no one around to challenge him. Unfortunately, complete chaos will be the result when this house of cards collapses.
dmart90
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Anyone else reporting this? Ol' Tyler is not the most reliable source...
BigRobSA
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aginresearch said:

He has systematically purged his enemies of 25 years. There's really no one around to challenge him. Unfortunately, complete chaos will be the result when this house of cards collapses.


I knew about that, but at a certain point the general populace becomes his enemy. I guess he's extremely isolated himself, and this fairly secure.
jefe95
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Really? Going after zerohedge?

It links a Reuters article.
sports
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Hello WW3
Zergling Rush
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aginresearch said:

This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.

Hope is not a strategy......


Wake up people. We are in a world war. Russia/China are winning by destroying NATO economically from within. Why fight with guns when you can play economic jenga to pummel your enemies?

Russia will find other outlets to sell their NG and Oil, if they don't they'll store it up for strategic reserves to be used when we are in a shooting war a year from now.




texagbeliever
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BCG Disciple said:

pfo said:

This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.
Pardon my unit of measurement math, but that's about $45/mcf, compared with Henry hub currently at $7.25. Just knowing how this impacts our price of electricity, I'd have a difficult time watching my electric bill go from $300 to $1800.

That is exactly what happened in Germany. Went from $50 1 year forward to $300+. That is just a simple weighted volume so even higher for residential usage.
GAC06
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Invade after the Olympics. Cut off the gas in the middle of summer. Good thinking Russia.
aggie93
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Fireman said:

**** em. Let them live off solar and wind energy.
They tried but they don't have much wind and way too many clouds there. On top of that they shut down their nuclear plants because they went all in on Russian energy. Beyond idiocy. Germany has really screwed itself in each direction on this with the topper being how they expended huge political capital with the US to pressure us to go along with Nordstream 2 (which Biden did) that was the final tinder for the Ukraine war. It's amazing how hard Germany worked to commit suicide and ignored common sense. The other problem they have is they are a complete demographic nightmare and things are going to get much harder for them to recover so when they do they will be a shell of what they once were.

At least the French never stopped on nuclear and the French in general don't give a crap about what other countries want them to do. France also has halfway decent demographics compared to most of Europe. France is going to overtake Germany as the leader of Europe, it's only a matter of time.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
Ag87H2O
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TefIon Don said:

So tired of Trump being right…..about everything.
Trump tried to warn them and they were foolish not to heed his advice.

"The way of a fool is right in his own eyes, but a wise man listens to advice." Proverbs 12:15
Tom Doniphon
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WWIII looms
3 Toed Pete
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aggie93 said:

Fireman said:

**** em. Let them live off solar and wind energy.
They tried but they don't have much wind and way too many clouds there. On top of that they shut down their nuclear plants because they went all in on Russian energy. Beyond idiocy. Germany has really screwed itself in each direction on this with the topper being how they expended huge political capital with the US to pressure us to go along with Nordstream 2 (which Biden did) that was the final tinder for the Ukraine war. It's amazing how hard Germany worked to commit suicide and ignored common sense. The other problem they have is they are a complete demographic nightmare and things are going to get much harder for them to recover so when they do they will be a shell of what they once were.

At least the French never stopped on nuclear and the French in general don't give a crap about what other countries want them to do. France also has halfway decent demographics compared to most of Europe. France is going to overtake Germany as the leader of Europe, it's only a matter of time.
No doubt the merkel admin profited very well off of selling out their country. Seems kind of funny until you realize our own clown potus is doing the same thing with China and others.
wbt5845
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CDUB98
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Quote:

The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.


Hmmm. The Bund is actually up 1.2% (0.097 basis) this morning at the time of this post writing.

Somebody on one side of the trades is wrong.
AlaskanAg99
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Russia has a history of letting their citizens suffer, collapse of their economy may not be a big concern. If their belief is win in Ukraine, dominate the Uke energy fields, then the rest of the EU will be so starved for resources, they'll take whatever Putin gives them at high prices along with complete removal of all sanctions.

Option 2: Putin is removed and someone takes over that's willing to play ball to save the Russian economy.

Option 3: Putin is removed and a hardliner takes over, orders a general mobilization for war in Ukraine and EU countries are forced to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.
The Chicken Ranch
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Where is the "You hate to see it" emoji?
YouBet
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Has it ever been confirmed if Russia's claim that Canada is holding up parts and equipment as the cause of this is true?
CDUB98
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Question for you upstream folks:

What does this do to Russia's gas wells? Is gas a bit different than oil and you can just shut them in for a bit?
Zergling Rush
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CDUB98 said:

Quote:

The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.


Hmmm. The Bund is actually up 1.2% (0.097 basis) this morning at the time of this post writing.

Somebody on one side of the trades is wrong.

Money printing is great and all (via the ECB "emergency measures" aka QE, bond buying, special purpose vehicles, etc) but it won't keep the lights on this winter.


This is going to take a few weeks/months to sort out.......We will know all we need to know by September, maybe sooner.
Zergling Rush
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YouBet said:

Has it ever been confirmed if Russia's claim that Canada is holding up parts and equipment as the cause of this is true?
They were initially. Last I heard, Canada shipped the components.
YouBet
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From the Reuters article:

Quote:

Even before Nord Stream began maintenance on July 11, Gazprom had on June 14 reduced shipments through the pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany, citing the delay of a turbine being maintained in Canada by equipment supplier Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE).
I've never seen anyone question this claim by Russia so I guess it's true. The schadenfreud here is almost too good to be true which is why I've wanted some confirmation.

Siemens, a German company, is f'ing it's own country by way of Canada who is now a tyrannical leftist country.

I would say you can't make this stuff up, but we do live in the Era of Leftist Idiocracy now.
 
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