No, it's saying that our nat gas prices are within the range they've been in the past twenty years.

They're going up because we are using more and more, and exporting more and more. But coming off of essentially zero doesn't make them high.

We literally flare nat gas because it's effectivley a waste byproduct that isn't economical to transport. What food product do we do that with?

But whatever. Keep believing that HH prices are high. It's tone deaf.

Yes the guy who sees how higher energy prices are leading to rampant inflation that is further destroying small businesses and disproportionately damaging the middle/lower class is the tone deaf one.

Just like with covid, you look at numbers as if they are just that numbers. Reality is there are assumptions and factors beyond those numbers that are critical for the meaning drawn from them. In this case Fracking. But have a nice weekend!

Zobel said:

---

No, it's saying that our nat gas prices are within the range they've been in the past twenty years.

They're going up because we are using more and more, and exporting more and more. But coming off of essentially zero doesn't make them high.

We literally flare nat gas because it's effectivley a waste byproduct that isn't economical to transport. What food product do we do that with?

But whatever. Keep believing that HH prices are high. It's tone deaf.

---

I think you're wearing the tin foil hat here. The data clearly shows that nat gas has been below $5 for most of the last 30 years, with exceptions from 2003-2008 and a flash spike in 2000. Roughly 75% of the time in the chart below nat gas has ranged from $2 to $5.

Today's price of $6.80 is well above the normal range.

this all started because you said "we can't even get close to approving a new nuclear plant despite high natural gas and coal costs."

nat gas costs



current admin policies have nothing to do with nuclear plant vs nat gas vs coal. and our prices aren't high except only compared to an extremely narrow window. gas turbines were rising as power source going back to the 90s (remember enron / calpine heyday?) which is well before the shale gas boom that began in earnest in2006. US nuclear capacity has been flat since the 90s. look at the HH prices back then.



i agree HH prices are higher than they were a couple of years ago, but doesn't make them high. and i agree that rising energy prices hurt small businesses.

you want to talk about the meaning behind numbers, go ahead. why is HH price rising? here's a big part of it


the other big part is olefins production. we're even to the point that we're turning nat gas into feedstocks for gasoline at this point. final investment decision on all of these plants were made years ago.

and even with all that, HH prices are still not high.

Yes - LNG exports are increasing the coupling of our domestic market to global pricing, that's a trend that will probably continue. On the other hand US NG production can scale quickly. I don't know what the "natural" HH price will be in the future when the market has hit some equilibrium between increased export demand and increased production supply.

texagbeliever said:

---

Zobel said:

---

I feel like your price memory is incredibly short. Nat gas prices are not expensive globally or historically.

---

Have prices been higher, yes. Was coal much more dominant and cheaper during higher Nat Gas prices, BIG time yes. You are much more ignorant on energy fuel mixes and energy prices then you realize. Natural Gas units use to be primarily peakers they are now base units across the country.

---

*** Stop derailing the thread -- Staff ***

I dont get your point. Price of Natural gas is clearly elevated and causing an economic burden in most sectors of industry. Forward thinking by politicians and business would have seen the strategic benefit of a diverse energy mix especially with Nuclear. Having more Nuclear base load would drop natural gas demand even further helping relieve prices in the north east which are way higher than $6. The fact that you use a non-basis tied node such as HH is also some fine cherry picking for your argument. Why not use AGT?

NE is a whole other problem of their own NIMBY stupidity. It's asinine that they've put themselves in the situation where they need to get LNG in the CONUS.

The reason you won't get nukes built is because they're a phenomenally bad ROI compared to a CCGT even at NG prices much higher than today.

Zobel said:

---

NE is a whole other problem of their own NIMBY stupidity. It's asinine that they've put themselves in the situation where they need to get LNG in the CONUS.

The reason you won't get nukes built is because they're a phenomenally bad ROI compared to a CCGT even at NG prices much higher than today.

---

It also has to do with the largest exporting facility being off the AGT line. So NE gas prices are tied to European gas prices.

Nuclear plants could be built if regulation was much less. Instead good ol' government is preventing the best green energy source from being used. Shocker!

I don't believe that regulation is the problem. The regulations have been in response to the fact that the nuclear industry has continually discovered new ways to have problems or failures. The increased regulations have always been reactionary in that regard. The other issue with conventional nuclear is the scale of capital investment required. Until nuclear plants can standardize or become modular and decentralize by reducing reactor size, the capital constraints are always going to stand in the way. The payback period is simply too long to be a financially viable alternative to other thermal generation. The only way to do anything big with nuclear is through direct government intervention. Maybe you would say that's the way to go for strategic reasons, but if that's the case the prices of NG is moot. You can't mix market analysis in as you like it. Just my opinion.

Regulation is 70% of the problem. South Carolina has a nuclear plant that is nearly 2x or 3x over budget because of regulation.

Regulations, for nuclear energy?

Seems like something a Yalie would come up with.

BREAKING: Protests break out in the UK, Households are facing inflation of almost 10% and are worried about whether they will be able to heat themselves or pay their mortgage this winter 🇬🇧 🚨

🔊 pic.twitter.com/wBQ2jWUpGy

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 1, 2022

texagbeliever said:

---

Regulation is 70% of the problem. South Carolina has a nuclear plant that is nearly 2x or 3x over budget because of regulation.

---

Let's take the LNG discussion to its own thread please.......

Quote:

---

Blinken Calls Sabotage Attacks On Nord Stream Pipelines A "Tremendous Opportunity"


Just when speculation and an avalanche of theories have inundated the web on an array of international outlets, the Biden administration has bluntly (and apparently lacking self-awareness) boasted that the pipeline bombings present an "opportunity".

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Friday joint press briefing with Canada's top diplomat that the damage and disruption to the pipelines are being seen in Washington as a "tremendous opportunity" to greatly reduce European energy imports on Russia

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blinken-calls-sabotage-attacks-nord-stream-pipelines-tremendous-opportunity

---

Yep, we did it.....10% for the big guy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/inflation-in-europe-now-looks-even-less-transitory-than-in-us

When pandemic inflation took off last year, it was seen as more likely to stick around in the US -- where stimulus was much bigger and consumer demand stronger -- than in Europe. But the energy crisis has upended that picture.

Euro-area price increases have now outpaced the US for two straight months. The gap likely widened in September, when Europe-wide inflation hit 10% while in Germany it accelerated to 10.9%. US numbers aren't due out for another 10 days....

The reason is Europe's natural-gas crunch, the result of shortfalls in Russian imports that got worse after the invasion of Ukraine. That sent electricity prices soaring too, helping drive up costs in pretty much every corner of the economy -- with the result that inflation is now broader in Europe, as well as higher....

It means Europe's central bankers who are applying the same inflation medicine as their US peers, by rapidly raising interest rates have less ability to address the root problem, and run more risk of hurting their economy in the attempt. ...

"Core inflation is likely to take longer to fall in Europe than in the US, partly because Europe will continue to suffer from a bigger energy supply shock," analysts at Capital Economics wrote last month. "While we expect the Fed to cut rates in the second half of 2023, we doubt that the BoE and ECB will be able to do so before 2024."

Europe right now; a Czech school is giving out blankets instead of turning on the heating.#energy #EnergyCrisis #energytwitter pic.twitter.com/7nuKkhFy2z

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 3, 2022

JUST IN - HAK, one of the largest vegetable brands in Northern Europe, to shut down production for six weeks due to high energy costs. pic.twitter.com/t1rfo6fjtV

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) October 3, 2022

Revolution In Air As Brits Burn Power Bills Amid Historic Energy Crisis
[url=https://gettr.com/share?&text=Revolution%20In%20Air%20As%20Brits%20Burn%20Power%20Bills%20Amid%20Historic%20Energy%20Crisis%20&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Frevolution-air-brits-burn-power-bills-amid-historic-energy-crisis][/url]
Thousands of Brits marched in London and other metro areas this weekend in protest of being thrown into energy poverty while inflation is at forty-year highs.
There were countless videos on social media showing Brits holding signs about their dire financial situation. "Can't afford to live," "Freeze profit, not people," and "Eat the Tories," read some of the signs people held.

The protest was organized by Don't Pay UK, an anonymous group spearheading the effort to have more than one million Brits boycott paying their power bills this winter (the movement is nearly 200,000 strong).

Quote:

---

"Millions of us simply won't be able to keep our heads above water and many will freeze when the weather turns cold," a spokesman for the campaign said

---

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/revolution-air-brits-burn-power-bills-amid-historic-energy-crisis

🔥 London! #dontpayuk #EnoughIsEnough pic.twitter.com/1OGv7OeKmH

— Don't Pay. (@dontpayuk) October 1, 2022

Burn your bills. https://t.co/C7dGinFBla 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/PZ6gx03OKi

— Don't Pay Birmingham (@DontPayBrum) October 1, 2022

So many photos! Pls reply with your favourite ones. Together no one is going cold this winter! https://t.co/dhNjVZHzDD pic.twitter.com/0mq04j7qRS

— Don’t Pay Manchester (@DontPay_Manc) October 1, 2022

#EnoughIsEnough #DontPay #Birmingham pic.twitter.com/9IVVvM0hKO

— Kefentse Dennis (@KefentseDennis) October 1, 2022

The advice by @fbirol was wrong at the time. Governments who were serious about climate change should have *increased* investment in natural gas given that it has been the main driver of carbon emissions around the world including in Europe pic.twitter.com/knSFyIKTfv

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 3, 2022

LFG!!! pic.twitter.com/ciMTK0f1cN

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 3, 2022

https://t.co/En6rbDapWu

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 3, 2022

Some interesting pieces in this thread about the ongoing disaster the 'great reset' a la green bs is wreaking on the world.

https://news.yahoo.com/eu-prepares-possible-power-cuts-220341669.html

"BERLIN (Reuters) - The European Commission is preparing for power cuts and other emergencies within the European Union, media group RND reported, citing a senior EU official, amid concerns over the conflict in Ukraine and a possible energy crisis within the bloc.

Falling Russian fossil-fuel exports to the bloc have pushed several EU states to put into effect emergency plans that may lead to rationing as they race to find alternative supplies.

The EU is preparing for two scenarios. In the first scenario, only a small number of member states are affected by an incident such as a blackout and other EU states can supply power to the affected members, EU crisis management commissioner Janez Lenarcic was quoted as saying by RND on Tuesday."

Any stories about reserves being 88% full and that Europe is "fine" is absolute BS.

Winter is coming.

Blackouts, major food processing plants closing, riots protesting high utility costs. Ukraine war is most certainly not not devastating to the middle class in Western Europe.

What I'm curious about is the rest of their infrastructure. They have other thermal power plants in various stages of mothball and shutdown. Gas has never broken 20% of the mix for Europe. We only need to go back to 2015 to see 25% of their energy coming from coal. I don't know enough to know why recommissioning those plants isn't an immediate priority.

In addition to.major industries shutting down, steel for example, they're also shutting down fertilizer plants. Which won't have an immediate impact, but they're gambling the future.

There has to be a term for the fallacy that if Group A shuts something down expecting Group B to pick up the slack and increase production to keep the market stable. Except Group B is also trying to kill the same industries and that supply may (read Will) not be available in thr market.

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

In addition to.major industries shutting down, steel for example, they're also shutting down fertilizer plants. Which won't have an immediate impact, but they're gambling the future.

There has to be a term for the fallacy that if Group A shuts something down expecting Group B to pick up the slack and increase production to keep the market stable. Except Group B is also trying to kill the same industries and that supply may (read Will) not be available in thr market.

---

Between the EU/Dutch nitrogen fertilizer insanity, energy prices/scarcity, and as well the loss of much of their fertilizer inputs too (Ukraine) for multiple seasons, it's pretty highly likely this will be the first extended/significant drop in agricultural productivity in all of Europe since the 40's.

There are a lot of trickle on effects, to some very interesting business decisions some big and small players are making right this moment. The macro-view is that the wealthy/developed nation markets will get (almost all of) their food because they can/do pay a premium for it, and poorer people will starve/suffer from the agriculture mess the greens have created in Europe.

RWE CEO: IN TERMS OF ENERGY SUPPLY, THE WINTER OF 2023/2024 WILL BE FAR MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE CURRENT ONE.

It sure will

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) October 4, 2022

All connected to this… something @DoombergT warned about for awhile…https://t.co/weJkxqDhGb

— Weimar Silver Baron (@BankerWeimar) October 5, 2022

Que Te Gusta Mas said:

---

RWE CEO: IN TERMS OF ENERGY SUPPLY, THE WINTER OF 2023/2024 WILL BE FAR MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE CURRENT ONE.

It sure will

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) October 4, 2022

---

Correct. They have a lot of NG in storage to make it through this winter. It's the next year when it gets sketchy without the Russian gas

Like I've been saying for months, if a BASF steam cracker has to go off-line, you'd better hold onto your asses.

Wonder how much silver a place on the French Coast will cost in 2024 after Europe's economic collapse.

Hubris is a mother ****er

AgResearch said:

---

Que Te Gusta Mas said:

---

RWE CEO: IN TERMS OF ENERGY SUPPLY, THE WINTER OF 2023/2024 WILL BE FAR MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE CURRENT ONE.

It sure will

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) October 4, 2022

---

Correct. They have a lot of NG in storage to make it through this winter. It's the next year when it gets sketchy without the Russian gas

---

So we can put off saying goodbye to Germany, and then the rest of the EU until winter 2023/24?

Here's a hint: They are lying and not telling you that Europeans will have to live in dystopian third world status (rolling black outs, rationing, no street lights, govt control over your thermostats, etc) to survive this winter.

Beyond the energy issues, the goodbye will be seen mostly in the financial sector. Derivatives will implode and bring everything down with them.

Beyond those two issues, food inflation is going to cause protests and unrest.


Won't be long now.

Remember a few pages back when Russia said that an Oil Price Cap by the EU is a red line?

Quote:

---

EU Ambassadors Agree On A Russian Oil Price Cap

European Union ambassadors reached an agreement on Wednesday to impose a new package of sanctions on Russia, including banning maritime transportation for Russian oil to third-party countries unless the oil is sold below or at a certain price cap.

Quote:

---

"Ambassadors reached a political agreement on new sanctions against Russia - a strong EU response to Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories," the Czech rotating presidency of the EU said in a tweettoday.

---

The eighth package of sanctions includes "Prohibition of maritime transport of Russian oil to third countries above the oil price cap and a ban on related services." The additional sanctions also extend import bans on goods such as steel products, wood pulp, paper, machinery and appliances, chemicals, plastic, and cigarettes.

---

Quote:

---

"Please Don't Panic Buy": France Taps Strategic Reserve After Gas Stations Run Out Of Fuel

Several days after we learned that gas stations in France have run out of gasoline due to long-running oil refinery strikes, today the French government said that France has tapped its strategic fuel reserves to resupply petrol stations that have run dry, amid ongoing strikes by workers that have stunted refining production and blocked gasoline deliveries.

Government spokesman Olivier Veran acknowledged "tensions" but said there was no shortage of fuel stocks on a national level. He urged consumers not to panic-buy, which of course is the surest way to encourage panic buying, long lines, rationing and all the ugly scenes from those black and white photos of the 1970s.

"We are obviously monitoring very, very closely the situation together with the operators and, here and there, when it was necessary, we have used our strategic stocks to enable the stations to be supplied," Veran told reporters.

A walkout by hard-left CGT trade union members at TotalEnergies has disrupted operations at two refineries and two storage facilities, while two Exxon Mobil refineries have faced similar problems since Sept. 20. The industrial action has left more than 60% of France's refining capacity offline.

Veran said roughlyONe in every 10 service stations nationally were experiencing some shortages, but that in the north the figure was closer to one in every three.

The UFIP has previously said France has enough strategic reserves of oil products to cover average demand for about three months. TotalEnergies has said it has increased imports and has additional stocks "that could last between 20 days and a month."

After that France will be effectively paralyzed, only it won't be Putin's fault but the labor unions.

It gets worse: outages in France's refining sector are creating uncertainty in the refined oil trade amid a heavy oil refinery maintenance season in Europe this autumn. "The strikes continue unabated", the union said in a statement on Wednesday evening, adding "the wage negotiations are far from over."

A few more weeks of this chaos, and it won't matter if the unions reach a deal: France will be out of strategic reserves for good and every incremental barrel will cost so much more.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/please-dont-panic-buy-france-taps-strategic-reserve-after-gas-stations-run-out-fuel

---

Got word that Germany is not exporting any energy to regional allies. "Every man for himself" type attitude.

The EU is dead in all but formality.

The european elite will cause many deaths this winter due to their efforts to bring utopia to the masses.
Too bad it won't be them suffering.

Perhaps the French can loan the Germans their guillotines.