I think you are underestimating how weak Western Europe is strategically. They need Russia for a healthy economy. They need USA in case Russia says no in order to prevent a total collapse. It is USA exports that are keeping gas prices relatively stable and promise relief in a few years if this issue isn't resolved. So Europe can't go do there own thing against the will of America.

texagbeliever said:

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I think you are underestimating how weak Western Europe is strategically. They need Russia for a healthy economy. They need USA in case Russia says no in order to prevent a total collapse. It is USA exports that are keeping gas prices relatively stable and promise relief in a few years if this issue isn't resolved. So Europe can't go do there own thing against the will of America.

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Europe doesn't need Russia for a healthy economy. The Russian economy is very small. They are only a trading partner on energy. As far as needing cheap Russian gas, the need is only there because of some incredibly stupid policy decisions made by the Europeans. These policy decisions take some time to undo, but they are not irrevocable.

As far as the US role in Europe's energy supply, it's not that big simply because the infrastructure to make it so is lacking on both ends -- we don't have enough LNG producing facilities or shipping, and they don't have enough LNG receiving facilities. Yes, we'll sell more gas to them in the long run, but not as much as we could sell right now if we had the facilities. US producers are wary of sinking too much money into these facilities for fear that Europe will tap other sources and that this will not be the kind of money maker that it is right now. Europe will produce more nuclear energy, and, if necessary, go back to coal (they have plenty of that to mine if they want to). The UK will now apparently start fracking in an effort to exploit their significant gas reserves. They will also buy LNG from the Arabs (a much shorter trip).

Where they are weakest is militarily. They are absolutely pathetic when it comes to strength levels. That's where they are wholly dependent on the US, and likely will be for a long time.

I think you are downplaying the urgency of the issue presently facing the European economies. Yes Russia over 20 years shouldn't have much influence but now they do. It is a bit like the Texas revolutionary war. Santa Anna had 3-4x the troops. Yet he surrendered. Why, because he was captured after unnecessarily risking himself due to arrogance. Yes Western Europe could survive a cold winter without Russian or American gas. However, the politicians and financial elite likely would not, and that is who will be making the decisions. Those politicians will want to play nice and make the situation as tolerable as possible to keep their power.

twk said:

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File5 said:

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NATO proxy war would be correct also too, IMO. But where we go, they go it seems. Does the EU care as much about Ukraine winning as the US does? To me it seems no, especially since EU is reliant on Russian gas, already hurting, and about to have a cold winter. Joe can't be seen to lose another "war" before the midterms at the very least, which aren't very far away thankfully.

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Look, no one has a lower opinion of Biden than me, but you are making the mistake of thinking that the world revolves around the US, sort of like people used to think that the universe revolved around the Earth. European opinion is not monolithic, but the continent has largely owned up the fact that being dependent on Russian gas was a mistake. While their are some folks who are fearful of making it through the short term without Russian gas, in the long run, pretty much everyone over there would like to correct their mistake and not be so vulnerable to Russia. If you think that Biden is calling the shots, then you are severely overestimating his power. The Europeans do not want Russia overrunning its former empire -- not even the Europeans on the Russian payroll want that. The question of what kind of price they are willing to pay to prevent this is yet to be answered, but it's clearly a lot higher price than people would have thought (including Putin) before February 24.

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What you are saying might apply to the average European but the WEF elitists in the EU and UN would be quite happy for things to go back to how they were. They are convinced that, given a little more time and a lot more of their middle class taxpayer's wealth, that their green initiatives would have allowed them to break away from Russian energy. They will try to stimmy their way through this hoping to avoid violent insurrection and then go back to the green energy grift once things moderate.

texagbeliever said:

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I think you are downplaying the urgency of the issue presently facing the European economies. Yes Russia over 20 years shouldn't have much influence but now they do. It is a bit like the Texas revolutionary war. Santa Anna had 3-4x the troops. Yet he surrendered. Why, because he was captured after unnecessarily risking himself due to arrogance. Yes Western Europe could survive a cold winter without Russian or American gas. However, the politicians and financial elite likely would not, and that is who will be making the decisions. Those politicians will want to play nice and make the situation as tolerable as possible to keep their power.

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The amount of gas that Europe would need to conduct business as normal simply isn't going to be there. Maybe there are some WEF elites who dream of a sudden capitulation by Ukraine and reversal of economic sanctions against Russia, but that's not happening. European industry is getting hammered this winter. That cake is already baked.

I agree with all of that. It is now a question of how tolerable conditions in Hell are. If they can make it a manageable 7 then the political elite will keep power. If it is a 9 or 10 then heads might be on the chopping block. My point was/is that I think the USA can play a huge factor in keeping things at a 7 rather than a 9 or 10. That gives them quite a bit of leverage.

Also need to define "survive" as compare to the 2019 economic activity.

The irony of the EU begging for US NG. Made mostly through fracking, and the outright refusal to permit their domestic supply.

ESG scores should get docked for every mcf of fracked gas imported to EU.

ESG scores should also get docked for every bbl of Russian crude delivered to the west through a Saudi middleman.

NEW - Companies declared insolvent in England and Wales jumped by 42% in August compared to last year, according to government data — Guardian

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) September 16, 2022

File5 said:

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I think you're on the money, they don't have manufacturing capability right now due to gas shortages. Just putting out there way someone would normally be interested in a lower Euro.

The US proxy war comment implies that the US is propping this whole stalemate up regardless of the EUs best interest because the US can't be seen to lose this, whereas if we weren't then these countries would be forced to accept terms that would be better for their economies, albeit at the expense of Ukraine.

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I think Kim is also ignoring the global recession that is underway.

UK currently has 9 TWh of gas stored, compared with 217 TWh in Germany, 122 TWh in France & 162 TWh in Italy.

"The UK government dismantled its largest gas storage facility in 2017, a decision taken by then chief secretary to the treasury – Liz Truss." https://t.co/mTMtIbcFw4 pic.twitter.com/cUmaXpgl7t

— Jan Rosenow (@janrosenow) September 17, 2022

Sort of meaningless if we don't know their demand.

UK also produces gas, about 3x Germany/Italy/France combined

Insightful thread here:

1/ In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) September 17, 2022

Meanwhile, Austria’s 100 year govt bond, maturing in June 2120, has in 10 months gone from 140 to 42… a loss of 70%…

The hodlers since inception are enjoying an annual coupon of 0.85% for the next 98 years… pic.twitter.com/3Ux3fY9n5p

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 20, 2022

Germany PPI increased 7.9% MoM in August, the fastest pace since records began… YoY prices increased a staggering 45.8%…

Weimar 2.0… pic.twitter.com/lyn53YUDSo

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 20, 2022

Russia will crater when we stop by from them.

Lefty EU

Wow, they were at 8.2% way back when Senator Obama was promising to stop the seas from rising. Many, many dollars and euro's ago.

Europe's fertilizer production shutdowns, in one map 👇#oatt #Fertilisers #fertilizer #Europe #inflation pic.twitter.com/coaZ0w2j4x

— Prof. Michael Tanchum (@michaeltanchum) September 22, 2022

In the replies to the fertilizer post.

I hope all this was worth the virtue felt when you added that Ukraine flag to your Facebook.

Thiel: “There are 3 tangible futures. Islamic sharia law, Chinese totalitarian AI, or hyper-environmentalism” pic.twitter.com/tz8mMIsMd5

— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) September 23, 2022

MORE - This was in part an agreement to appease the Green parties in government who have been noteworthy for their long-standing opposition to nuclear power, according to the Brussel Times.https://t.co/SfKJ62vzuU

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) September 23, 2022

Muh democracy

She's literally threatening to impose sanctions on countries that democratically elect leaders the EU doesn't like. They already did it to Hungary.

The EU is a totalitarian outrage. https://t.co/17V3KQr3X9

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) September 23, 2022

I believe it will fall in its current form. There are just too many issues working against them (of their own making).

Outstanding!

Great job to everyone involved. Nice work.

Never go full Biden.

YouBet said:

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I'm at the point where the EU, in its current form, needs to fail.

This lady threatens that if a sovereign people don't vote right then she has tools to course correct them, and then in the same breath says governments should be accountable to the people.

The latter is exactly what those people are doing. You can't have both you hypocritical moron.

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Maybe you start to get your wish tomorrow. Isn't Italy's election the Right is projected to win with an anti globalist candidate tomorrow? (the 25th).

Edit: Oops, I see that is exactly what is being discussed a few posts above yours. So much the better.

Got to know a couple of professionals from northern Italy a couple years ago while Brexit was going on. They told me that they wouldn't be surprised is Italy bailed from the EU at some point. This sentiment is primarily by people in the north which is the driver of the Italian economy. I would't be surprised if Italy is the first one out the door if shtf.

For what it's worth.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Outstanding!

Great job to everyone involved. Nice work.

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That is crazy. Even if the Russians felt driven to such an extreme, it would still be a mad idea. I mean, why not trying just blowing up the govts wanting war first (and informal ones like Brussels and Davos), and see how that "Mad Max" world works out if they feel trapped? Even by MAD and nuclear scenarios, it doesn't make sense to blow up everything.

NUTS.

Yawn

https://fortune.com/2022/09/24/europe-energy-crisis-winter-natural-gas-putin/amp/

"But as bad as it is now, these might still be the good days for Europe. With winter and higher gas demand on the way, experts told Fortune that Europe's energy market has never been more vulnerable. Even the slightest uptick in energy demand anywhere in the world could push entire sectors of Europe's manufacturing industry to shut down entirely, devastating European economies with a wave of unemployment, high prices, and in all likelihood public unrest and divisions between European nations."

**** has yet to hit the fan.

Globalist media in full-on panic mode https://t.co/F4ArEH1Xtn

— Jack Posobiec XLV (@JackPosobiec) September 25, 2022

Europe is running out of the wood needed to power a modern economy!https://t.co/cWmOYohVPd@WallStreetSilv @DoombergT @wmiddelkoop @HarmlessYardDog pic.twitter.com/xQAcpw90PX

— Weimar Silver Baron (@BankerWeimar) September 26, 2022