Are the Saudis buying Russian oil and re-selling it to the US?

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I don't think we're in a world war.

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Don't re-fight the last war.

This about the future and the economic system that will govern it. Destroy the economic activity of your enemies and you usually win. China and Russia don't benefit any longer from using the western central bank controlled economic currency system. China used debt to build out their infrastructure and connect billions of new customers via Belt and Road. Russia sees the US dollar thru the FED as a direct threat to their existence and is taking active steps to save themselves and destroy the Dollar.

This war is being fought at the political and finance levels. And yes, it's extremely active. Don't need to shoot and drop bombs on your enemies, if you can collapse their economies by bribing political *****s in the west to commit economic suicide.

Why do you think China was having regular business deals with the Bidens? Just maybe blackmail......

Zobel said:

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I think the engines are Rolls-Royce RB211s but I'm not sure if the overhaul is on the gas generator (jet engine) itself or its coupled power turbine, RT-62 or something similar. Either way, the Montreal facility repairs the RR engines, and Siemens purchased the aeroderivative part of RR back around 2014.

Supply chains for this are messy, multiple parts are sanction-able and I know for a fact some of the technology used is export controlled (some of the coatings and manufacturing methods). I'm sure several governments - like the US - were involved in this decision. Good popcorn viewing, wish I could have been a fly on the wall for that meeting.

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Found more info - based on the info here are the reported size of the engines it looks like the eight engines are six Trents and two RB211s

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/friendly-fire-sanctions-against-gazprom-trigger/

That actually makes more sense as I have been told in the past that Siemens / RR repaired the Trents only in Montreal. The JV Rolls Wood Group (RWG) handles the RB211 for Siemens and they have multiple locations (not Montreal).

Also.. the compressors on that pipeline are Dresser-Rand (now also part of Siemens) Datum compressors. That's US tech. Wonder how the export paperwork for any maintenance parts for those is going...

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Also.. the compressors on that pipeline are Dresser-Rand (now also part of Siemens) Datum compressors.

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Would have been really ironic if they had been Neuman & Esser recips.

The RB211's are ancient. I can't believe only Montreal is capable of doing those, we're talking 60's tech.

The Trent is a whole line of engines, somewhat related (basically all 3 spool), but again while some are modern there are RR MRO shops on every continent. Delta, Korean, Lufthansa, all the major RR widebody partners would have a ship doing a lot of those (in the family).

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The RB211's are ancient. I can't believe only Montreal is capable of doing those, we're talking 60's tech.

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That's exactly why only one place does them.

Two fold strategy of keeping ancient tech out of your other facilities while at the same time making it more of a pain in the arse for your customers to keep them going, which then leads to your customers reaching an economic switching point. OR a phased out obsolescence.

Rolls signed a JV with Wood Group (much like Pratt did) to form RWG for the overhauls. This is pre-Siemens days. Siemens bought the RR aeroderivative side, but RWG remains an authorized service center for the RB211 and the Allison 501K, Avons, etc. Siemens still sells brand new A35s - they're not ancient. They're a workhorse aeroderivative engine.

The flight and industrial / aeroderivative engine and repairs aren't the same. The engines themselves are "similar" and often use identical parts under different part numbers, but some modifications are made when they convert them for land use. You can't just drop it in. I mean, yeah, if you wanted to overhaul it there you could but that's not really how these facilities work.

Siemens canned the Industrialized Trent, doesn't even list it on their website any more - memory holed. Montreal is where they repair those, and they never set up a licensee to my knowledge. There was a plant that was built in Mexico (I think?) that was in a bind because Montreal couldn't / wouldn't provide timely support for one of their Trents. So this is par for Siemens.

Ironically the new engine is the one with the crap supply chain here. But still the issue is not the engine but the sanctions. Even if it were an RB211 that you could overhaul at any RWG facility you're still going to be under UK, US, Canadian sanctions.

Justin2010 said:

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For decades Pat Buchanan has been warning of the dangers of allowing your nation to be less and less self-reliant.

We're getting a taste of the fruits of globalism now, and they're bitter.

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Thanks to all the "free traders" who believed sending manufacturing jobs overseas to an emerging enemy country for short term gain would be worthwhile.

They need natural gas storage to be close to 100% entering winter to have any chance of surviving without Russian gas. Pre-Ukraine, that was usually what they were shooting for just from a system management standpoint (buying in the summer when prices were lower). If they have to use that gas now, just to keep the power on, because of the drought, they will really be hurting come winter.

aginresearch said:

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This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.

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You ever play Age of Empires? I always played Egyptians because they kicked ass in the Bronze Age. I would either overwhelm my Iron Age opponents early or play the long game. As soon as the board ran out of gold, they were screwed.

In the case of the coming deglobalization and total collapse of many countries into Libya style hell holes, the Russians are sitting pretty. They have the food, they have the oil, they have metals and fertilizers and they already run on 1980 technology. They just have to starve the euros of food and resources and wait.

I am just glad they made the mistake of destroying much of their military capability on the special operation.

aginresearch said:

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Also United States: Thanks for the business, Russia!

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Only if we're smart enough to take advantage of it.

This doesnt hurt Russia, as much as it hurts Germany, because of China.

China has increased their Russian natural gas imports by around 70% this year. They are filling the gap for Putin.

If China wants to upset the apple cart, they'll reduce how much they're buying from Russia. But they wont do that, because they are trying to prop up Russia until they have access to the new pipeline.

Long term, they'll open their new pipeline in about 18 months. Then Europe really has an issue.

Waffledynamics said:

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aginresearch said:

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Also United States: Thanks for the business, Russia!

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Only if we're smart enough to take advantage of it.

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Spoiler alert: we aren't. The nation just 'elected Joe Biden' 22 months ago.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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It's going to get so bad, in the EU people shop near daily, they do not behave the way the US does usually due to a lack of space. So no real ability to prep and create a stock now.

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This is 100% true.

The only people that have food stored away in bulk are the farmers in rural and semi-rural areas. There's nowhere to store food in a typical apartment in Europe. People buy what fits in their cupboard and tiny ass refrigerator freezer. Giant deep freezers like we have here are very rare.

pfo said:

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This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.

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Yeah....but as England and Japan learned the hard way-

You need vital and rare raw materials much more than you need manufacturing.

Manufacturing can always move.

Germany by next spring:

In a world where trade is restricted you need both. This is a great example. What good is natural gas if you don't have the technology to run the compressors to export it?

The nightmare scenario is where people starve even though there are 'technically' functional resources all around them but the massive bureaucracy and holes all over the supply chain (due to said bureaucracy and shutdowns) cause people to look at each other wondering what to do next.

Whirligigs said:

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The nightmare scenario is where people starve even though there are 'technically' functional resources all around them but the massive bureaucracy and holes all over the supply chain (due to said bureaucracy and shutdowns) cause people to look at each other wondering what to do next.

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not our problem to save those people.

Whirligigs said:

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The nightmare scenario is where people starve even though there are 'technically' functional resources all around them but the massive bureaucracy and holes all over the supply chain (due to said bureaucracy and shutdowns) cause people to look at each other wondering what to do next.

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See my gif above.

Zee Germans leaders have rightfully F ed their country about 82 years after they F ed them the first time. For a country that brags about all the smart people they have, they really are a bunch of dumb MFers over there in Germany.

Trump warned them 5-6 years ago to not put all their cards into the Russian energy business, they ignored him and did it anyway... In fact, the German leaders took bribes from the Russians on this green energy bull**** and it bit them in the ass. Hitler was their leader and led them down this same road regarding their economy and how it should work.

Germans are not as smart as they think they are... they are easily bribed and controlled by their leaders.. they must like wearing sheeple clothing, because their sheeple leaders put them in this situation.. lets hope for Europes sake that they find enough energy to make their way out of this.

Sounds like our Ivy League products.

Why can't we just give them a few trillion as a bridge gift, or however much they want? I think we have given Ukraine over $50-billion so what is there to worrying about? If we can give illegal immigrants $200k each, we can keep great ally, Germany, on solid footing.

How about it you cheap bast*rds?

CardiffGiant said:

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Bunch of goobers who are not as smart as they think they are!

Zobel said:

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Rolls signed a JV with Wood Group (much like Pratt did) to form RWG for the overhauls. This is pre-Siemens days. Siemens bought the RR aeroderivative side, but RWG remains an authorized service center for the RB211 and the Allison 501K, Avons, etc. Siemens still sells brand new A35s - they're not ancient. They're a workhorse aeroderivative engine.

The flight and industrial / aeroderivative engine and repairs aren't the same. The engines themselves are "similar" and often use identical parts under different part numbers, but some modifications are made when they convert them for land use. You can't just drop it in. I mean, yeah, if you wanted to overhaul it there you could but that's not really how these facilities work.

Siemens canned the Industrialized Trent, doesn't even list it on their website any more - memory holed. Montreal is where they repair those, and they never set up a licensee to my knowledge. There was a plant that was built in Mexico (I think?) that was in a bind because Montreal couldn't / wouldn't provide timely support for one of their Trents. So this is par for Siemens.

Ironically the new engine is the one with the crap supply chain here. But still the issue is not the engine but the sanctions. Even if it were an RB211 that you could overhaul at any RWG facility you're still going to be under UK, US, Canadian sanctions.

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Incredible. Thx.

DamnGood86 said:

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Why can't we just give them a few trillion as a bridge gift, or however much they want? I think we have given Ukraine over $50-billion so what is there to worrying about? If we can give illegal immigrants $200k each, we can keep great ally, Germany, on solid footing.

How about it you cheap bast*rds?

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The US taxpayer is funding all three sides of this war.

Fear InoculAg said:

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MuchosPollos said:

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aginresearch said:

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This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.

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Hope is not a strategy......


Wake up people. We are in a world war. Russia/China are winning by destroying NATO economically from within. Why fight with guns when you can play economic jenga to pummel your enemies?

Russia will find other outlets to sell their NG and Oil, if they don't they'll store it up for strategic reserves to be used when we are in a shooting war a year from now.

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I don't think we're in a world war. Russia and China are mostly just letting the west destroy itself by gratuitously abandoning reliable energy. Yes, they are taking measures here and there to help it along. But if, for example, all western nations just ramped up coal mining, drilling, refining, and nuclear power infrastructure, this energy "crisis" would be solved for the long term within one year.

If you're relying on a foreign government that hates you to sell you the energy you need to keep the lights on in your country, that's entirely your own fault. When the spigot gets turned off, that's not an act of war. It's a completely foreseeable eventuality.

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Correct. One of the world's largest gas fields and a primary European Supply, Groningen just w3st of the German border was shut in by theNetherlands government over the past three years. additionally, Germany is purported to have massive shale reserves that aren't being drilled due to their Green Party policies. Let them freeze at their own stupidity and not worry about them as they have choices.

AG N ASIA said:

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Fear InoculAg said:

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MuchosPollos said:

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aginresearch said:

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This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.

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Hope is not a strategy......


Wake up people. We are in a world war. Russia/China are winning by destroying NATO economically from within. Why fight with guns when you can play economic jenga to pummel your enemies?

Russia will find other outlets to sell their NG and Oil, if they don't they'll store it up for strategic reserves to be used when we are in a shooting war a year from now.

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I don't think we're in a world war. Russia and China are mostly just letting the west destroy itself by gratuitously abandoning reliable energy. Yes, they are taking measures here and there to help it along. But if, for example, all western nations just ramped up coal mining, drilling, refining, and nuclear power infrastructure, this energy "crisis" would be solved for the long term within one year.

If you're relying on a foreign government that hates you to sell you the energy you need to keep the lights on in your country, that's entirely your own fault. When the spigot gets turned off, that's not an act of war. It's a completely foreseeable eventuality.

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Correct. One of the world's largest gas fields and a primary European Supply, Groningen just w3st of the German border was shut in by theNetherlands government over the past three years. additionally, Germany is purported to have massive shale reserves that aren't being drilled due to their Green Party policies. Let them freeze at their own stupidity and not worry about them as they have choices.

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It also doesn't help that it isn't written in stone that first (a) you made yourselves dependent on them, and then (b) chose to oppose them in something. In a way Biden putting any kind of accent on the Islamist reporter in Saudi Arabia if he did is the same problem on a smaller scale. If you have let yourself get into (a) you really should just punt on (b).

Nobody has mentioned that the US Navy could be the ultimate protection racket. In fact, we ought to start using black ops pirates to intercept Iranian oil. Could starve the Iranians and Chinese into submission in a matter of months.

Everyone wants to say how many ships and sailors the PLN has. Cool, but talk to me after they win a few engagements. They bootleg mediocre Russian hardware.

Really a shame Trump is not in office. He would be twisting it in the Germans until the blade broke off.

twk said:

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Germany may end up in the ditch even before a lack of gas causes problems.

All the europhiles like to complain about how the US is behind the times because it doesn't have a great rail system like in Europe and Germany. Well, in fact, the US has a great rail system, best in the world, its just that it's a freight rail system, not passenger rail. Europe's freight rail pales in comparison. They make up for this mostly by using more river freight. But, the drought this summer is just about to the point where it will close the Rhine. That means shipments of coal going to power plants needed to keep the electricity going will have to be rerouted to rail for some distance, and it would also close down the critical German chemical industry (BASF is just upstream from the key shallow point). So, if the drought doesn't let up, German industry may already be shut down before a gas shortage kicks in.

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Man, you weren't exaggerating. Just saw this picture of the Rhine in Cologne.

Germany may have a reprieve. Putin may have been signaling a warning and something to `think about'. They may be getting a preview and second chance. Hmmm.

Remember Russia said officially it was going down for `maintenance' --- no open admission of deliberate --- so its an oblique way to say it could be a preview.

Notice this though:
Nord Stream probably to resume at `less' capacity....

Ukraine Latest: Putin in Iran; Nord Stream Gas Flows May Resume (msn.com)

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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Nobody has mentioned that the US Navy could be the ultimate protection racket. In fact, we ought to start using black ops pirates to intercept Iranian oil. Could starve the Iranians and Chinese into submission in a matter of months.

Everyone wants to say how many ships and sailors the PLN has. Cool, but talk to me after they win a few engagements. They bootleg mediocre Russian hardware.

Really a shame Trump is not in office. He would be twisting it in the Germans until the blade broke off.

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Seems like a great way to start ww3