Say goodbye Germany, then the rest of the EU

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titan
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9:09a, 7/18/22
S

Of course the cynical thing would be for Germany to get the pipeline flow restored by giving up on the Ukraine boycott and mollifying Russia. THEN, build like they did in 1930's at a madcap pace militarily, so they can impose sanctions from a stronger position whenever Putin goes after his next country.

This is different from appeasement because it would be part of a planned ramp up for fighting. Buying time when you know that is all you are doing is not appeasement but strategy.

Appeasement means you "give them what they want" and YOU continue as before. It is not if you are using the time for full militarization. Appeasement should not be confused with a deliberate delaying tactic.
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LMCane
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In reply to Ghost Mech • 9:10a, 7/18/22
MuchosPollos said:

Quote:
Gazprom Reportedly Declares Force Majeure, Will Halt Gas Flows To Germany Indefinitely

Already days before the July 22 European "Doomsday" when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end - but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its "good functioning" due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions - the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer.

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, "Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters." The letter is reportedly dated July 14.

The letter invoked "extraordinary" circumstances outside the company's control, Reuters continues, citing a source saying the customer in question is Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

As we've been detailing, German authorities have of late taken unprecedented steps in anticipation of an enduring Russian gas halt, essentially dimming the lights across the country - which has included everything from limiting hot water, to shutting down swimming pools, to quite literally dimming city street lights as it entered "alarm" stage over dwindling supply.

It seems this letter declaring its legal release from supply obligations going back to June 14 is in preparation for definitive action on July 22, namely that the pipeline's operations are likely to remain suspended.

BS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe: It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in the Stoxx 600 and the euro would drop to 90 cents. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely
Looks like the Russians grew wary of waiting to tell Germany to F-off.

No Russia natural gas is a head shot. Without a miracle, it's just a matter of time before the German economy crumbles and takes the EU with it.......And the rest of the western world too.



not the rest of the Western world

the Israelis have massive stores of LNG all along their coast.

now the Euros and the Biden idiots (who STOPPED ISRAEL FROM CREATING AN EASTERN MED CONSORTIUM) may rethink things

it's not impossible to move the LNG from the rigs at Leviathan through Cyprus to Greece and then throughout Europe. it's just a question of national will and monetary investment.
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Funky Winkerbean
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In reply to TefIon Don • 9:11a, 7/18/22
AG
TefIon Don said:
So tired of Trump being right…..about everything.
And the libs double down on being wrong..
It is so easy to be wrong—and to persist in being wrong—when the costs of being wrong are paid by others.
Thomas Sowell
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LMCane
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9:11a, 7/18/22


Since the discovery of offshore natural gas last decade, Israeli officials have ambitiously pursued an export agreement that would deliver natural gas to Europe. And last week, Israel took its most meaningful step yet toward achieving this goal by signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) together with Egypt and the European Union.

The MOU articulates that Israel and Egypt will increase natural gas sales to EU countries, who in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are trying to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

According to the agreement, Israel will deliver natural gas via pipeline to Egypt, where it will then be converted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and sold on the European market.
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YouBet
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In reply to LMCane • 9:14a, 7/18/22
AG
LMCane said:


Since the discovery of offshore natural gas last decade, Israeli officials have ambitiously pursued an export agreement that would deliver natural gas to Europe. And last week, Israel took its most meaningful step yet toward achieving this goal by signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) together with Egypt and the European Union.

The MOU articulates that Israel and Egypt will increase natural gas sales to EU countries, who in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are trying to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

According to the agreement, Israel will deliver natural gas via pipeline to Egypt, where it will then be converted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and sold on the European market.
Lol.

Europe's dependence on bad actor Russia switches to....the Jews.

Can't wait for the all hand wringing on that one.
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CDUB98
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In reply to Ghost Mech • 9:17a, 7/18/22
AG
MuchosPollos said:
YouBet said:
Has it ever been confirmed if Russia's claim that Canada is holding up parts and equipment as the cause of this is true?
They were initially. Last I heard, Canada shipped the components.


I hate to be fair to the Russian *******s, but even if the components were shipped, if shipped late, there is a cascading effect on the schedule of installation, startup, and commissioning.
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AlaskanAg99
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In reply to titan • 9:17a, 7/18/22
AG
That will take years and at best Germany has months to deal with gas supply issues.
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aggie93
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:17a, 7/18/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
Russia has a history of letting their citizens suffer, collapse of their economy may not be a big concern. If their belief is win in Ukraine, dominate the Uke energy fields, then the rest of the EU will be so starved for resources, they'll take whatever Putin gives them at high prices along with complete removal of all sanctions.

Option 2: Putin is removed and someone takes over that's willing to play ball to save the Russian economy.

Option 3: Putin is removed and a hardliner takes over, orders a general mobilization for war in Ukraine and EU countries are forced to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Russia has never cared about their citizens and they are culturally very different than Western Europe. They have no real democratic tradition and the country isn't set up well to be a democracy. It has been and will likely always be led by a strongman. Either that or it breaks apart.

The most frustrating thing about all of this is so much of it was preventable and the obvious solution (US going all in on energy production and using our tech and Navy to dominate the market) is not only off the table we are trying to go in the other direction.

Russia and China aren't strong enough though to really take advantage and they are insanely flawed and corrupt. It's going to be an "everybody loses" situation and the only real glimmer of hope is that people seem to be waking up to just how dangerous the WEF/Davos crowd is.

It is so incredibly frustrating that people don't understand just how many people around the world are going to suffer because we went from Trump to Biden. We need a real leader so badly right now that actually puts America first and the world will follow.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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dmart90
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In reply to jefe95 • 9:18a, 7/18/22
AG
jefe95 said:
Really? Going after zerohedge?

It links a Reuters article.
I see that now. But the Reuters article doesn't make the same leaps that zerohedge did...

Sorry you don't like we questioning zerohedge - they've been way off base in the past.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to TefIon Don • 9:19a, 7/18/22
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TexAgs91
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9:20a, 7/18/22
AG
We knew Germany's end was already coming when Merkle allowed millions of immigrants into her country.
I identify as Ultra-MAGA
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CDUB98
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In reply to LMCane • 9:22a, 7/18/22
AG
LMCane said:


Since the discovery of offshore natural gas last decade, Israeli officials have ambitiously pursued an export agreement that would deliver natural gas to Europe. And last week, Israel took its most meaningful step yet toward achieving this goal by signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) together with Egypt and the European Union.

The MOU articulates that Israel and Egypt will increase natural gas sales to EU countries, who in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are trying to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

According to the agreement, Israel will deliver natural gas via pipeline to Egypt, where it will then be converted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and sold on the European market.


I wonder if there are any plans to build LNG facilities is Israel. Seems only logical to liquify the stuff yourself rather than using energy to ship it all the way to Egypt. There are a couple of EPC contractors out there who could have a bare bones facility up and running in a couple of years if they can get materials.
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titan
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:22a, 7/18/22
S
AlaskanAg99 said:
That will take years and at best Germany has months to deal with gas supply issues.
True, but you see some of the other options with Israel and such. What they need is a little time. Then seek to cut in half the difference. If it will take years, cut that in half by more doubling down with lessons of ramp up learned from the past, then speed up these other alternates.

Unfortunately for them, they have put themselves in a `need immediate' solution by the way they intervened after the fact rather than firm threats before the invasion. It has not easy solutions, but when you are serious things can be made to take far less time than any projection says. As long as the emphasis is not on regulations, chain of command, or safety. Allied programs of 1940-1942 ignored all three in favor of speed.
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Burdizzo
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In reply to BigRobSA • 9:31a, 7/18/22
AG
BigRobSA said:
aginresearch said:
He has systematically purged his enemies of 25 years. There's really no one around to challenge him. Unfortunately, complete chaos will be the result when this house of cards collapses.


I knew about that, but at a certain point the general populace becomes his enemy. I guess he's extremely isolated himself, and this fairly secure.


It has been about 100 years since the the last violent revolution in Russia. The rest of the time they have lived under thugs . When Putin is gone, his successor will also be a thug. That is the Russian way.
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Hoyt Ag
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In reply to CDUB98 • 9:33a, 7/18/22
AG
CDUB98 said:
Question for you upstream folks:

What does this do to Russia's gas wells? Is gas a bit different than oil and you can just shut them in for a bit?
One is a liquid. One is a gas. Very different.
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CDUB98
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In reply to Hoyt Ag • 9:35a, 7/18/22
AG
Hoyt Ag said:
CDUB98 said:
Question for you upstream folks:

What does this do to Russia's gas wells? Is gas a bit different than oil and you can just shut them in for a bit?
One is a liquid. One is a gas. Very different.


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Ghost Mech
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In reply to LMCane • 9:38a, 7/18/22

Quote:
not the rest of the Western world

the Israelis have massive stores of LNG all along their coast.

Can they ramp up production by the end of July to supply German for the winter?


This is a short term/immediate crisis. Markets don't react well to surprises, extremes, and unknowns. ECB and The FED can only manipulate markets for so long before reality sets in (GERMANY (EU) HAS LITTLE TO NO POWER). The TBTF banks are all interconnected. DB has one of the worlds largest derivative positions in the Trillions. If they get caught on the wrong side of a trade, DB goes down, so do the rest.


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titan
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9:46a, 7/18/22
S

They need time. They need to play dead and ramp up like crazy from every direction possible.

The trick is they also have Russia where they don't want to keep it turned off---use that.

Doubt the Ukrainian war can be won by EU without risking full blown damage to them.
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PA24
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9:56a, 7/18/22
AG
Biden predicted a winter of death, he was a just one year off. Europe will freeze this winter and starvation will be a norm all over the world. Europe has some tough choices to make and unfortunately this new liberal world order of a one Godless government drags us into this dog crap.

TEXIT
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LRHF
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In reply to CDUB98 • 9:59a, 7/18/22
AG
CDUB98 said:
Question for you upstream folks:

What does this do to Russia's gas wells? Is gas a bit different than oil and you can just shut them in for a bit?


Generally speaking- natural gas wells don't have issues when shut in for an extended period. There was a time in the US when most gas wells were SI for the summer because of low demand (=low prices).
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TxLawDawg
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In reply to LRHF • 10:10a, 7/18/22
AG
LRHF said:
CDUB98 said:
Question for you upstream folks:

What does this do to Russia's gas wells? Is gas a bit different than oil and you can just shut them in for a bit?


Generally speaking- natural gas wells don't have issues when shut in for an extended period. There was a time in the US when most gas wells were SI for the summer because of low demand (=low prices).
I could be off base, but my understanding was that Russia's primary oil and gas fields were in the frozen Siberian tundra, and shutting in wells even for short periods of time was a very high risk of catastrophic damage to the well itself. In other words, not keeping the gas/oil flowing continuously would cause the well to freeze in such that it wasn't recoverable. You would have to drill new wells, which apparently takes much longer and is much more difficult and expensive in that climate. That's the risk to the Russian O&G industry of these sanctions - they don't have the storage capacity built to just store oil and gas pulled out of the ground and wait for a customer. If they don't sell and ship it immediately they risk production going offline permanently.
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CDUB98
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In reply to TxLawDawg • 10:17a, 7/18/22
AG
I don't doubt there are situations like that, but heat tracing and sheltering easily solves this, so I doubt it's much of an issue these days.
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twk
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10:28a, 7/18/22
AG
Germany may end up in the ditch even before a lack of gas causes problems.

All the europhiles like to complain about how the US is behind the times because it doesn't have a great rail system like in Europe and Germany. Well, in fact, the US has a great rail system, best in the world, its just that it's a freight rail system, not passenger rail. Europe's freight rail pales in comparison. They make up for this mostly by using more river freight. But, the drought this summer is just about to the point where it will close the Rhine. That means shipments of coal going to power plants needed to keep the electricity going will have to be rerouted to rail for some distance, and it would also close down the critical German chemical industry (BASF is just upstream from the key shallow point). So, if the drought doesn't let up, German industry may already be shut down before a gas shortage kicks in.
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TxLawDawg
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In reply to CDUB98 • 10:42a, 7/18/22
AG
CDUB98 said:
I don't doubt there are situations like that, but heat tracing and sheltering easily solves this, so I doubt it's much of an issue these days.
Like I said, I could be wrong, but I read that somewhere. May have been from Peter Zeihan, I'm not sure.
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Boozer92
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10:42a, 7/18/22
AG
Looks like Canada sent the repaired turbines yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-sent-repaired-turbine-nord-stream-germany-kommersant-2022-07-18/
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AlaskanAg99
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10:46a, 7/18/22
AG
There's the other major issue with food supply.

Netherlands was told to take a 30% haircut. Ukraine and Russia is mostly offline and the massive heat waves and droughts will impact crop yields in Sept. That's already on top of declining productivity.

It's going to get so bad, in the EU people shop near daily, they do not behave the way the US does usually due to a lack of space. So no real ability to prep and create a stock now.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 10:46a, 7/18/22
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:
That will take years and at best Germany has months to deal with gas supply issues.
They would have had years had they listened to Trump.

Oh and here's another kicker, think of Germany freezing to death with the latest Omicron strain running rampant. I know there is a ton of overhype with Covid but it can still do a lot of damage to the elderly.

As someone mentioned, Biden (and his handlers) were a year off with the winter of death rhetoric.
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I am always wrong
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In reply to Ghost Mech • 10:52a, 7/18/22
MuchosPollos said:
aginresearch said:
This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.

Hope is not a strategy......


Wake up people. We are in a world war. Russia/China are winning by destroying NATO economically from within. Why fight with guns when you can play economic jenga to pummel your enemies?

Russia will find other outlets to sell their NG and Oil, if they don't they'll store it up for strategic reserves to be used when we are in a shooting war a year from now.






I don't think we're in a world war. Russia and China are mostly just letting the west destroy itself by gratuitously abandoning reliable energy. Yes, they are taking measures here and there to help it along. But if, for example, all western nations just ramped up coal mining, drilling, refining, and nuclear power infrastructure, this energy "crisis" would be solved for the long term within one year.

If you're relying on a foreign government that hates you to sell you the energy you need to keep the lights on in your country, that's entirely your own fault. When the spigot gets turned off, that's not an act of war. It's a completely foreseeable eventuality.
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pfo
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:55a, 7/18/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
pfo said:
This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. Two sides to that transaction. Can they get the same price for the same volume somewhere else?


No Hawg. Only Europe and Japan are paying astronomical prices but Russia can't get their gas to Japan. So lost nat gas sales are lost forever.Putin is making another big mistake here.
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LMCane
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In reply to BigRobSA • 10:55a, 7/18/22
BigRobSA said:
aginresearch said:
This is the correct take. Germany is no doubt in a world of hurt for the short to medium term. However, this is far more damaging to Russia long term. I for one am looking forward to the complete collapse of Russia and the ignominious end of Putin.


How has he not been assassinated, yet? Not from without, but within. Serious question.
Americans need to realize that the guy to replace Putin-

may be worse than Putin.
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EX TEXASEX
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11:04a, 7/18/22
I must be a little slow. At the time I didn't get the joke, but know I do and it is indeed quite funny Fritz.



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Zobel
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In reply to YouBet • 11:04a, 7/18/22
AG
I think the engines are Rolls-Royce RB211s but I'm not sure if the overhaul is on the gas generator (jet engine) itself or its coupled power turbine, RT-62 or something similar. Either way, the Montreal facility repairs the RR engines, and Siemens purchased the aeroderivative part of RR back around 2014.

Supply chains for this are messy, multiple parts are sanction-able and I know for a fact some of the technology used is export controlled (some of the coatings and manufacturing methods). I'm sure several governments - like the US - were involved in this decision. Good popcorn viewing, wish I could have been a fly on the wall for that meeting.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to pfo • 11:05a, 7/18/22
AG
Thanks. What I thought.
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nortex97
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In reply to twk • 11:10a, 7/18/22
AG
twk said:
Germany may end up in the ditch even before a lack of gas causes problems.

All the europhiles like to complain about how the US is behind the times because it doesn't have a great rail system like in Europe and Germany. Well, in fact, the US has a great rail system, best in the world, its just that it's a freight rail system, not passenger rail. Europe's freight rail pales in comparison. They make up for this mostly by using more river freight. But, the drought this summer is just about to the point where it will close the Rhine. That means shipments of coal going to power plants needed to keep the electricity going will have to be rerouted to rail for some distance, and it would also close down the critical German chemical industry (BASF is just upstream from the key shallow point). So, if the drought doesn't let up, German industry may already be shut down before a gas shortage kicks in.
They are saying about 35% of the coal power might be offline in a few months, but of course some of that depends on rain/precipitation coming in this fall not happening. Realistically, I think they could be in for a tough time but I think the nat. gas storage is sufficient to avoid a catastrophe at least through mid September.



But really, I have no idea, not my circus, not my monkeys.
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captkirk
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11:12a, 7/18/22
AG
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