NASAg03 said:

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Insightful thread here:

1/ In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) September 17, 2022

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It's Twitter, is there an actual source for the claims made?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Faces-An-Exodus-Of-Energy-Intensive-Industries.html

Is this a legit info source? It's not surprising on the article.

Energy intensive industries are slowing down, and future investment will be in the US where energy is cheaper and more reliable.

Im back from vacation......Thread Bump


This is an interesting one.....Either pure propaganda via RT or pure censorship from Western media/gov'ts. I can only find one source (RT) for the open letter from German Frozen Food Institute. Makes sense that frozen food producers who depend heavily on refrigeration via electricity would be having a hard time but also makes sense that RT would be trying to instill panic in Germany/the West......

Quote:

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German producers warn of food shortages

Germany's frozen and fresh food producers warned that rising energy prices may soon force them to stop operations, according to Die Welt.

The letter was initiated by the German Frozen Food Institute and the Association of German Cold Storage and Logistics Companies, and signed by five other industry groups. It was addressed to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck and Federal Minister for Food Cem Ozdemir.

According to the authors of the letter, the financial standing of food producers is deteriorating every day, which could soon result in a wave of bankruptcies in the industry. They warn that government intervention is needed to salvage the situation. In particular, they are calling for financial support for energy-intensive medium-sized producers in the deep-freeze chain.

The food industry is currently experiencing the worst crisis since the end of the Second World War… It's a minute to twelve. Act now otherwise the refrigerators and freezers of the German population will soon be empty," the letter urges.

https://www.rt.com/business/563407-food-shortages-warning-germany/

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Quote:

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Europe's Energy Crisis Will Not Be "A One Winter Story"

Reduced energy supply due to the sanctions against Russia and Moscow shutting down key pipeline gas export routes will leave Europe scrambling for oil and gas well after the coming winter as the current crisis is not "a one winter story," according to analysts at consultant Energy Aspects.

"This is not a one winter story, let's just make it very, very clear," Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg television in an interview on Friday.

Europe will need to ration demand in order to be able to balance the market, not only this winter but also the next winter and potentially the one after that, she noted.

The energy crisis is already pushing Germany Europe's biggest economy into a recession, which will deepen as we head into the winter months amid the ongoing natural gas and energy crisis, Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, said in its monthly report earlier this week. Germany also moved this week to nationalize its biggest gas importer, Uniper, to prevent a collapse of the German energy and gas suppliers. Across Europe, industries are forced to curb or shut down production due to soaring energy prices, and several European industry associations say the European Commission's proposals to reduce energy prices and help households and businesses through the crisis are not enough to help them survive the winter.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Energy-Crisis-Will-Not-Be-A-One-Winter-Story.html

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Quote:

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Europe's First Cold Snap Begins This Week Amid Worsening Energy Crisis


Europe is plagued with an energy crisis, and the cold season is coming ahead of schedule.
The stability of the EU's natural gas reserves now depends on a mild winter. But new weather forecasts for next week indicate that "Arctic chill will blow across western Europe through next week will be the first test of how willing people are to delay switching on the heating in a bid to save energy and ease household budgets," according to Bloomberg.

Forecaster Maxar WeatherDesk said temperatures in London would sink 5 degrees Celsius below average, falling as low as 6.5 degrees Celsius overnight on Sept. 27. In Frankfurt, Germany, temperatures will fall 3.5 degrees Celsius below normal levels on the 28th, while France and Spain will see temperatures 3-4 degrees lower than the seasonal norm.


https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/europes-first-cold-snap-begins-next-week-amid-worsening-energy-crisis

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-prices-cca7e5afd38fbcfc1ad72934e8e59bd9

"Even if there is gas this winter, high prices already are pushing people and businesses to use less and forcing some energy-intensive factories like glassmakers to close.

It's a decision also facing fruit and vegetable growers in the Netherlands who are key to Europe's winter food supply: shutter greenhouses or take a loss after costs skyrocketed for gas heating and electric light."

Buttholes are clenching and winter hasn't begun.

BREAKING: Scenes of chaos in a supermarket in #Tunisia to collect sugar sachets. The country has been plagued by major shortages and rationing of basic food products for several weeks 🚨

🔊optional pic.twitter.com/6udSKMTMZW

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 27, 2022

Is Tunisia not able to get foodstuffs from adjacent countries on the continent? Its a little surprising that Europe's disruption is impact there.

agracer said:

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NASAg03 said:

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Insightful thread here:

1/ In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) September 17, 2022

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It's Twitter, is there an actual source for the claims made?

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Wood Scarcity and Empire - History Workshop

Interesting read.

I'm wondering if what's going on in Tunisia had any effect on Italy's election.

Gas is pouring into the Baltic sea near Denmark from leaks in Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines creating clouds of up to a kilometre wide in one section.

Denmark’s PM has blamed the leaks on “deliberate acts”. pic.twitter.com/7JnbBrWAqr

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) September 27, 2022

And with that Germany is done. This winter is going to be a *****.

Quote:

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In Dramatic Escalation, European Nat Gas Prices Soar After Gazprom Warns Ukraine Flows At Risk

In a day of constant news surrounding European gas flows, including the potential sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, moments ago, Russia state-owned gas giant Gazprom PJSC warned that another major source of gas flows to Europe was at risk, just hours after three massive gas pipelines were hit by suspected sabotage.

As Bloomberg reports, in a dramatic escalation of the energy standoff between Russia and Europe in little over 24 hours, the Nord Stream pipeline was knocked out by what German officials said looked like sabotage. Gazprom then said that one of two remaining routes bringing gas to Europe - via Ukraine - was at risk because of a legal spat.

Specifically, as Reuters notes, Gazprom rejected all claims from Ukraine's energy firm Naftogaz in arbitration proceedings over Russian gas transit, and had notified the arbitration court. It also said that Russia may introduce sanctions against Naftogaz in case it further pursues the arbitration case, meaning Gazprom would be prohibited by the sanctions from paying Ukraine the transit fees.


Naftogaz had initiated a new arbitration proceeding against Gazprom earlier this month, saying the Russian company did not pay for the rendered service of gas transportation through Ukraine. The company had said "funds were not paid by Gazprom, neither on time nor in full" for the gas transit.
Gazprom said on Tuesday that Naftogaz had no "appropriate reasons" to reject its obligations on transit via the Sokhranovka point, a key route for Russian gas exports to Europe.

In May, Ukraine suspended the flow of gas through Sokhranovka, which it said delivers almost a third of the fuel piped from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, blaming Moscow for the move and saying it would move the flows elsewhere.

Following the report that Russia may soon halt natgas transit via Ukraine, gas prices quickly jumped almost 20% as traders factored in the prospect that Europe will have to live without Russian gas this winter - and beyond.





https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dramatic-escalation-european-nat-gas-prices-soar-after-gazprom-warns-ukraine-flows-risk

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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One of the most scary days in European history of energy supplies

A thread 1/n

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) September 27, 2022

Now this is interesting....

I'm not going to quote it, just read it.

The timing is interesting (to say it the least) as the Baltic Pipe running through the same waters was opened today

The Baltic Pipe will supply Poland with 10bcm pr year from Norway to Poland

3/n pic.twitter.com/gis1vYCzyU

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) September 27, 2022

If Russia can strike Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, they can certainly strike the Baltic Pipe as well, but what about the Norwegian pipes to UK and Germany?

Norway delivers 25% of ALL European natural gas

4/n pic.twitter.com/EcQSgrHJiM

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) September 27, 2022

Gazprom warning there’s a risk Moscow will sanction Ukraine’s Naftogaz, which would prevent it from being able to pay transit fees, and therefore put at risk gas flows to Europe via Ukraine

This could further worsen the flow situation in Europe (see below)

6/n pic.twitter.com/vnAq6pvl6r

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) September 27, 2022

Ok. Changed my mind.

If RU has no access...they may go after Norwegian pipelines...that deliver 25% of all Europe NG. But that'd be a strike against NATO.

Non nuclear...but if it's underwater this would be hard to prove and absolutely devastating to Europe.

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Posted this in the war thread. But if Gazprom can't move Turkeys NG through Ukraine, they can also go after Norwegian pipeline supply. Losing another 25% of deliveries would absolutely screw Europe who cannot afford to lose any daily supply.

Attacking the Norwegian line would result in direct action by NATO. Perhaps something like destroying the Russian naval base at Sebastopol and the bridge crossing the Kirch Straight -- perhaps a blockade of the Baltic. Right now, it seems like the Russians are trying to use the Nordstream explosions as a false flag event, but if they go after Norway's pipeline, that strategy is out the window.

Pretty much. It's on the table same as destroying all pipelines in Ukraine.

If they can't win, no one wins.

September 27, 2022 and WW3 rolls on.

Quote:

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Red-Hot European Inflation Hits A New Record, Rising By Double Digits For The First Time

Another month, another red hot inflation print in Europe.

In the flash inflation release for September, Euro area headline HICP inflation rose 82bp to a record 10.0% (technically 9.96%), well above the median forecast of 9.7% and marks the fifth straight month the result has exceeded consensus. Before the inflation data, every one of the 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a record outcome this month, with four reckoning on 10%.

While energy and food once again drove inflation, an underlying measure that excludes them also topped estimates to reach an all-time high of 4.8%, above expectations of 4.70%, and piling pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/red-hot-european-inflation-hits-new-record-rising-double-digits-first-time

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MuchosPollos said:

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Quote:

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Red-Hot European Inflation Hits A New Record, Rising By Double Digits For The First Time

Another month, another red hot inflation print in Europe.

In the flash inflation release for September, Euro area headline HICP inflation rose 82bp to a record 10.0% (technically 9.96%), well above the median forecast of 9.7% and marks the fifth straight month the result has exceeded consensus. Before the inflation data, every one of the 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a record outcome this month, with four reckoning on 10%.

While energy and food once again drove inflation, an underlying measure that excludes them also topped estimates to reach an all-time high of 4.8%, above expectations of 4.70%, and piling pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/red-hot-european-inflation-hits-new-record-rising-double-digits-first-time

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Which country gets 80% of their power from nuclear energy?

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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September 27, 2022 and WW3 rolls on.

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/30/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

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President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday asserted that four Ukrainian regions would become part of Russia and decried the United States for "Satanism" and "neocolonial hegemony" in a speech that marked a new escalation in Moscow's seven-month war against Ukraine and positioned Russia, in newly stark terms, as fighting an existential battle with the West.
. . .

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Good news, Putin is fighting "Satanism", which is always a popular thing to position yourself against for consumption purposes. We can add that to Nazis, NATO, bioweapons labs, corruption, yada, yada.

twk said:

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Attacking the Norwegian line would result in direct action by NATO. Perhaps something like destroying the Russian naval base at Sebastopol and the bridge crossing the Kirch Straight -- perhaps a blockade of the Baltic. Right now, it seems like the Russians are trying to use the Nordstream explosions as a false flag event, but if they go after Norway's pipeline, that strategy is out the window.

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If they blow those pipes, NATO should bomb every pipeline out of Russia in retaliation.

Lol, putin can be a bad guy and still be right about the bad people 'leading' this country too.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Pretty much. It's on the table same as destroying all pipelines in Ukraine.

If they can't win, no one wins.

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Why is this assumed to be their attitude so automatically?

That was Hitler's in March 1945, but remember, Russia has actually passed this test in 1991. Putin was even in the picture.

Our govt hasn't yet faced the test--- and especially where the Left is concerned, are not sure it would pass it, rather than choosing destruction.

President Trump did not make it on the 2022 Forbes richest in the world this year by being wrong and laughed at by Germans. President Trump is laughing now.

titan said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Pretty much. It's on the table same as destroying all pipelines in Ukraine.

If they can't win, no one wins.

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Why is this assumed to be their attitude so automatically?

That was Hitler's in March 1945, but remember, Russia has actually passed this test in 1991. Putin was even in the picture.

Our govt hasn't yet faced the test--- and especially where the Left is concerned, are not sure it would pass it, rather than choosing destruction.

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I'd have to find his quote but Putin said a world without Russia (aka Putin) isn't a world worth having. The implication if they fail, they do as much damage as possible. Because your take is Putin is making rational decisions. Clearly he isn't. Clearly western war tech is handing him his ass and he's betting the future of his country via mobilization.

The west isn't backing down. Putin sees that resistance as an indication NATO is planning to invade.

Just one theory.

tremble said:

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twk said:

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Attacking the Norwegian line would result in direct action by NATO. Perhaps something like destroying the Russian naval base at Sebastopol and the bridge crossing the Kirch Straight -- perhaps a blockade of the Baltic. Right now, it seems like the Russians are trying to use the Nordstream explosions as a false flag event, but if they go after Norway's pipeline, that strategy is out the window.

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If they blow those pipes, NATO should bomb every pipeline out of Russia in retaliation.

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That is a bad idea. Yeah that hurts Russia but western Europe NEEDS that oil production almost more than Russia does.

From an economic perspective In the long run Russia has been incredibly damaged…

Western business investment in that country will take a loong time to come back to anything close to what it was…certainly not while Putin or a clone of his is running the show.

This is forcing Europe to work through and dramatically expedite ways to become much more independent of Russia energy sources. How is that going to be a good thing for Russia in the long term?

That land Putin just annexed in Ukraine was an incredibly expensive piece of real estate. Not even counting all the tragic thousands and thousands of dead and displaced.

Putin ran his country completely off the tracks.

I think this is a rosy take that ultimately assumes too much competence and proper governance on behalf of western Europe political leaders. Germany shut down their substantial nuclear energy because of ***ushima. Despite having none of the same geographical concerns. Look at America we can't even get close to approving a new nuclear plant despite high natural gas and coal costs.

What is more likely to happen is that there will be a growing conflict between the old powerful western Europe (France, UK, & Germany) vs the mid western Europe nationalistic states (Poland, Italy, Hungary). As the former will looks to assert and maintain dominance through EU pressure and sanctions.

In what world does the US have high natural gas costs???

Zobel said:

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In what world does the US have high natural gas costs???

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That would be right now in the Biden dystopian dream we're living in. Have you paid a gas bill lately?

Zobel said:

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In what world does the US have high natural gas costs???

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$5 instead of $2 means power prices (at least in Texas) go from $24 to $60. That is a HUGE deal for industry.

Also wait for winter in the north east. It will likely be closer to $15-25 if a sustained cold spell happens.

Gazprom just shut off all gas flow to Italy

I feel like your price memory is incredibly short. Nat gas prices are not expensive globally or historically.

Zobel said:

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I feel like your price memory is incredibly short. Nat gas prices are not expensive globally or historically.

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Have prices been higher, yes. Was coal much more dominant and cheaper during higher Nat Gas prices, BIG time yes. You are much more ignorant on energy fuel mixes and energy prices then you realize. Natural Gas units use to be primarily peakers they are now base units across the country.

And? Prices are lower now than in 2000s or early 2010s: and NG capacity factor and share of electricity mix is higher and consistently has increased since 2012. US NG prices are only high relative to a very short window of historical lows and only to themselves. They are not high historically or globally.

You do realize that technological advancements that completely chang the cost of a good make history pretty pointless right? Natural gas prices shouldn't be above $3 in Texas during non winter months. Doubling that price which is a doubling of energy price $30 ->$60 impact is significant. Higher energy costs will impact economic growth.

I guess you think that because gas prices are $3 Biden has saved us since they were $5! Forgetting the fact that they were in the low $2s during Trump.

The factors contributing to high Henry hub prices began before the Biden admin. Nat gas was cheap because it's a stranded / captive feedstock here. The cheaper it is the higher economic pressure becomes to utilize it, whether that's by building ethylene plants or LNG export terminals or CCGT plants.

And it STILL doesn't make our natural gas prices high. The only reason you're saying that is because during President Trump's admin. Price history exists before that. Even on a ten year timeline our prices today are not high.

Thats like saying food prices are insanely cheap right now. Given that throughout history food costs were closer to 1/3 of a budget rather than modern day 1/5 (made up numbers but general idea is true). Well okay but the world has changed significantly such that food prices at these levels ARE really high. Just because history is blind to technological advancement doesn't mean a thinking person should be.