BREAKING: UK government launches a £40 billion fund with the Bank of England to support energy companies to access extra liquidity | #EnergyCrisis #EnergyTwitter

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 8, 2022

Isn't this just going to make it where once you hit your cap you just use whatever electricity you want without being penalized? Although 2500 in electricity is a lot

BREAKING: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announces plans to limit typical household energy bills to £2,500 a year for the next two years to help Britons cope with the soaring cost of living

More: https://t.co/fUmGNolelv pic.twitter.com/Ho24wx94pS

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) September 8, 2022

Ziehan laying it out.

Beyond just energy inputs from Russia, Germany already killed their meaningful coal and nuclear. They have to buy very expensive NG.

On top of that, they've essentially killed off their petrochemical industry, when this shuts down it will also take countries who rely on Germany's industrial sector...

Netherlands, Belgium, Austria. Poland, Slovakia, Hungry and the Czech Republic are all going to be wiped out.

You can't make this **** up......

Quote:

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Europe Is Buying All The Russian Oil It Can Before Banning It

• Europe is currently importing over one million barrels per day of Russian oil, attempting to fill up before the EU-wide embargo on Russian crude imports comes into effect.
• Oil prices have fallen as demand concerns grow and China struggles with Covid lockdowns, and Europe is attempting to take advantage of those lower prices to stock up on oil.
• Alternative sources of crude oil are abundant for Europe, but the price will be set by the seller and the EU may soon find itself paying more for this critical energy source.

Three months from now, an EU-wide embargo on Russian crude oil imports will kick in, shutting off almost all shipments of the commodity from Russia to Europe. But right now, Europe is importing over 1 million barrels of Russian crude daily and has been doing so for the last month. Someone is stocking up before the taps turn dry.

While they publicly condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine and equally publicly assure their constituents that sanctions are working, European (and other) politicians make no mention of the continuing Russian oil purchases.

Yet, Russia is exporting some 3.32 million barrels of crude daily by sea, Bloomberg calculations have shown, which means Europe is buying a third of that, while it still can. And this means that nothing has changed since June when the embargo was approved, and Europe will have to find alternative oil suppliers at a time of likely higher prices.


Exports of oil from Russia to northern Europe rose particularly markedly in the first week of this month, the Bloomberg calculations showed, suggesting India's Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, who told CNBC this week that "I said the Europeans buy more in one afternoon than I do in a quarter. I'd be surprised if that is not the condition still."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-Is-Buying-All-The-Russian-Oil-It-Can-Before-Banning-It.html

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Source:https://t.co/hLosqPG5nK

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 8, 2022

Putin deep ****ing everybody and they lovin' it.

They can't get enough.

twk said:

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Again, whatever the short term outcome in the energy markets, Putin has lost the long term war. His military has been shown to be a joke, and long term, he is losing his best energy customers and will have to construct new pipelines and infrastructure in order to sell his gas to new customers. The people who are making out like bandits are the Chinese, India, and other countries that are buying oil from him at a steep discount then reselling it on the international market (hiding the origin).

No, it's quite safe to say that Putin is no genius. He has a bit of short term leverage due to the imbecility of western European leadership (who, collectively, have been dumber than Putin, I'll give him that much), but he's using that leverage up by the day and it won't ever come back.

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Putin also didn't think to move half of Russia's reserves out of Western banks (over $300 billion) when Russia invaded Ukraine because he didn't think the EU and the US would freeze the funds with sanctions. After all we didn't when Russia took Crimea.

That blunder amounted to around 20% of a year's GDP for Russia.
Putin's short term moves weren't great either.

Agreed that China and India are beneficiaries with the discounted oil.

Y'all are both missing the point......

Putin has fractured the EU with a simple military operation which captured pretty much all the productive capabilities of Ukraine.

Furthermore, he's been able to maneuver governments throughout the continent to having choose between accepting social unrest, very significant decline in quality of life for millions, drastic cuts in industrial and economic capacity, extreme stress in financial markets, and facing the threat of millions freezing to death this winter all while dumping billions of financial and military aid to a corrupt gov't in Ukraine, accepting millions of migrants from Ukraine, and diplomatically taking in the ass from a dementia riddled pedophile and his incompetent minions who couldn't manage a Dairy Queen

OR

Negotiate a peace and end this madness.


The choice is pretty clear BUT as we are seeing the ECB, WEF folks, and the Soros backed Gov't leaders are 100% on board the suicide train.


At a minimum, he's caused trillions in damage to the EU GDP. Over the next few weeks/months, we will witness whether or not Putin achieves a soul crushing victory. Hint: It's not looking good for the West right now.


BTW - that $300 billion in Reserves.......it's a pretty small price to pay to defeat your enemies.

Wow!

Putin is clearly winning the energy wars. His production, revenue, and currency are all doing ok/better now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-10/europe-s-energy-crisis-putin-is-winning-the-war-in-the-oil-market

Quote:

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No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region's governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies.

Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.

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That article is a month old, but it is all still fairly accurate from a non-military perspective.

Quote:

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The second indicator is the price of Russian oil. Initially, Moscow was forced to sell its flavors of crude at huge discounts to other varieties to entice buyers. In recent weeks, however, the Kremlin has regained pricing power, taking advantage of a tight market.

ESPO crude, a category of Russian oil from the Far East, is a good example of the new trend. At the low earlier this year, it sold at a discount of more than $20 a barrel to Dubai crude, the regional oil benchmark for Asia. Recently, ESPO crude has changed hands at parity to Dubai. Urals crude, the flagship Russian oil export to Europe, isn't benefiting as much as ESPO, as its key buyers have traditionally been countries such as Germany rather than India. But it's also recovering in price, selling recently at $20 to $25 a barrel cheaper than the Brent benchmark, after trading at a discount of almost $35 in early April.

Moscow is finding new commodity traders, often operating from the Middle East and Asia and probably financed by Russian money, willing to buy its crude and ship it to hungry markets. With Brent crude hovering at close to $100 a barrel, and with Russia able to offer smaller discounts, there's plenty of money coming in to the Kremlin. For now at least, energy sanctions aren't working.

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Winter is coming.

Report from a local in Hungary:



It appears that Hungary is in the process of collapsing.

Not good. People have been fighting over the Austo-Hungarian lands for a long time.

BAP Enthusiast said:

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Report from a local in Hungary:



It appears that Hungary is in the process of collapsing.

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Texted a friend in Hungary this.

Me: 'Is this true about Hungary?'

Response: 'Yeah, Hungarian reality. And it is sugarcoated'

Mass protests are already starting and it's early September.

Fun with maps. Go to Google earth, hit map style and add Lat/Long lines. Just about everything (except the southern 1/2) of Spain is 40d or higher in latitude.

Where's 40dN lat in the US? About the bottom border of Pennsylvania. Denver is just south of 40dN. The bulk of Germany would be in Canada. When winter hits, it's going to have a very outsized impact. I figure most Texans probably aren't aware of the equilivants being we are so far south. And that's 50dN.

Anyway, just some reference material why people are panicking now.

I enjoy listening to Ziehan.

RiverAg 80 said:

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I enjoy listening to Ziehan.

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I'd prefer a transcript than listening to him.

I hate video talks..

MuchosPollos said:

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Y'all are both missing the point......

Putin has fractured the EU with a simple military operation which captured pretty much all the productive capabilities of Ukraine.

Furthermore, he's been able to maneuver governments throughout the continent to having choose between accepting social unrest, very significant decline in quality of life for millions, drastic cuts in industrial and economic capacity, extreme stress in financial markets, and facing the threat of millions freezing to death this winter all while dumping billions of financial and military aid to a corrupt gov't in Ukraine, accepting millions of migrants from Ukraine, and diplomatically taking in the ass from a dementia riddled pedophile and his incompetent minions who couldn't manage a Dairy Queen

OR

Negotiate a peace and end this madness.


The choice is pretty clear BUT as we are seeing the ECB, WEF folks, and the Soros backed Gov't leaders are 100% on board the suicide train.


At a minimum, he's caused trillions in damage to the EU GDP. Over the next few weeks/months, we will witness whether or not Putin achieves a soul crushing victory. Hint: It's not looking good for the West right now.


BTW - that $300 billion in Reserves.......it's a pretty small price to pay to defeat your enemies.

---

Yup - the western strategy still mimics the sentiment of the Ukraine thread - somehow it's all going to be won over there. Madness - and we are still throwing away billions to that region.

People need to go to the WEF and string them up in the streets. Bring out the guillotine - French Revolution style.

Day 200 of my 3 day war. The Russian army advances rearwards exactly as planned while Ukrainian military flees in a panic chasing after it.

I remain a master strategist.

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) September 11, 2022

If u voted for Biden, u voted for war.

Nice laugh.

Pioneers of ESG gonna be burning that diesel baby!

“The request was triggered by a trading error by one of France’s regional energy providers, which accidentally oversold huge amounts of electricity over a two-day period…”

Source: https://t.co/gG3qiuhM21

— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) September 11, 2022

Quote:

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Germany's Arms Pipeline To Ukraine Has 'Crossed Red Line', Kremlin Says

The Kremlin has again called out Germany for abandoning its historic neutrality regarding shipping weapons to foreign conflicts, with Russia's ambassador to Berlin stressing the German government has violated a red line.

"The very fact that the Ukrainian regime is being supplied with German-made lethal weapons, which are used not only against Russian military service members, but also the civilian population of Donbass, crosses the red line," Ambassador Sergey Nechaev told Izvestia newspaper in a fresh interview, subsequently republished in English in state sources.

Invoking Moscow's previously stated objective to "de-nazify" Ukraine, the ambassador said that Germany should know better than to cross Russia's red lines, "considering the moral and historic responsibility that Germany has before our people for the Nazi crimes."

Nechaev continued by saying Germany "has unilaterally acted to destroy bilateral relations [with Russia] that were unique in scale and depth and had been built over decades," and that, "In essence, the post-war reconciliation of our nations and peoples is being eroded."

Addressing the soaring cost of utility bills the German population is already suffering - which is set to grow worse into the winter months amid the Nord Stream gas pipeline stoppage - the ambassador said the anti-Russia "sanctions war" led by government leaders will be increasingly seen by the German people as a case of "shooting yourself in the foot", which is likely to lead to energy and cost-of-living protests.

"We believe the ongoing processes to be Germany's domestic issue, in which we do not get involved," Nechaev said. "And we certainly are not in the habit of delivering pompous lectures, the likes of which the West constantly makes about Russians."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germanys-arms-pipeline-ukraine-has-crossed-red-line-kremlin-says

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Looks like the diplomacy is working well.......

Pompous lectures from the West vs outright lies and targeting civilians from the rus.

Not that hard to choose the lesser of the two evils here...

It's looking more and more like Putin is going to actually lose the war on the ground, but I guess he'll get his pound of flesh from the Europeans this winter, for all the good that it will do him (none). The Russians have been putting out bogus economic numbers to make it look like they have weathered the sanctions storm well, but those are all lies. Still, unless some kind of quick peace is negotiated, you'll see a lot of European industry shut down in order to minimize gas consumption -- with a favorable winter weather forecast, they might just make it to spring without a bunch of people freezing to death, but some of those industries that shut down now will never come back.

We gonna see a huge amount of particulate matter in the air over northern Europe this winter from people burning wood and trash in fireplaces.

Older houses have unused fireplaces still installed but a lot are converted to electric or heating oil. Are we gonna see a bunch of fires from people starting up old fireplaces that haven't been swept in decades?

We gonna see people scrambling for firewood. Burning public property, trash and anything that they can get ahold of?

How equipped are people to deal with reduced heat / no heat day-to-day?

Most all urban and suburban areas in northern / central Europe are decades removed from that level of resilience. We talking both people and infrastructure.

We sleepwalking into a massive global crisis.

You know, imo, of course.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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We gonna see a huge amount of particulate matter in the air over northern Europe this winter from people burning wood and trash in fireplaces.

Older houses have unused fireplaces still installed but a lot are converted to electric or heating oil. Are we gonna see a bunch of fires from people starting up old fireplaces that haven't been swept in decades?

We gonna see people scrambling for firewood. Burning public property, trash and anything that they can get ahold of?

How equipped are people to deal with reduced heat / no heat day-to-day?

Most all urban and suburban areas in northern / central Europe are decades removed from that level of resilience. We talking both people and infrastructure.

We sleepwalking into a massive global crisis.

You know, imo, of course.

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Latest forecasts that I have seen, as mentioned in my post above, indicate that Europe might just make it through winter without having to cut off gas to residential users, thanks to curtailing major industrial users. Now, will some folks try to go the wood burning route in order to save money? Yes. And, some accidents will happen, and there will be more particulate in the air than usual this winter. But, the crisis that will result will be more of a slow burn. When a lot of those energy dependent manufacturers are unable to resume business in the spring, then we'll start to see some fallout, but it will probably be more gradual than dramatic.

Back in '93 or '94 our furnace went out for a week in the middle of winter in Anchorage. Texans probably can't conceptualize how cold COLD is. We were using electric space heaters only in parts of the house we were in.

It's not "I'll put on a coat and mittens and will be able to hack it". It's absolutely miserable.

The Russians have shot their bolt in terms of using the gas weapon: things are still very bad but not getting worse and they are beginning to get better. End of energy fear porn https://t.co/vURZOkHDE1

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) September 12, 2022

Futures prices for commodities are often disconnected from reality.

74OA said:

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The Russians have shot their bolt in terms of using the gas weapon: things are still very bad but not getting worse and they are beginning to get better. End of energy fear porn https://t.co/vURZOkHDE1

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) September 12, 2022

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This is like spiking the football down by 10 in the 4th quarter.

Also volume is important. If large volume bought up the price of gas and small volume is selling off then prices havent "leveled off". What matters is what price of gas will consumers be paying for. If you lock in a contract to pay $200/MMBTU and the market falls to $100 you are still paying $200.