***** Official 2017 Astros Off Season Thread *****

287,834 Views | 2546 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Mr.Bond
iBrad
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11:30p, 12/5/16
AG
I didn't realize Hinch and Beltran played two seasons together in Kansas City. Only three years separate them in age.

I wonder what it's like having a former teammate that couldn't hit for **** now determine when and where you play.
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titanmaster_race
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In reply to Buck Compton • 11:50p, 12/5/16
Buck Compton said:
aggie1906 said:
Correra kind of dresses like a weirdo sometimes.
I think it's the sideburns as much as the over-sized coat. They're hideous.


He's ushering in a new Era of patchy lambchops
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k20dub
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7:30a, 12/6/16
AG
Still moves to be made but...

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gigemJTH12
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7:51a, 12/6/16
AG
Not listening to any projections this year. Especially one that has us over the Rangers.

Not at least until we start beating them.
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diehard03
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8:17a, 12/6/16
Quote:
Not listening to any projections this year. Especially one that has us over the Rangers.

Barring injury or upcoming trades, I don't know that I'd worry about the Rangers so much. They got 95 wins last year on a run differential of 8 which was less than yours. (and overshot their Pythagorean W-L by 13 wins).

I wouldn't expect them to repeat this.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to diehard03 • 8:19a, 12/6/16
AG
diehard03 said:
Quote:
Not listening to any projections this year. Especially one that has us over the Rangers.

Barring injury or upcoming trades, I don't know that I'd worry about the Rangers so much. They got 95 wins last year on a run differential of 8 which was less than yours. (and overshot their Pythagorean W-L by 13 wins).

I wouldn't expect them to repeat this.
Not a chance, but that seems silly to "not worry" about them. They have a good club and will win games with a better differential.
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:30a, 12/6/16
aggie1906 said:
Correra kind of dresses like a weirdo sometimes.
It's smart. Harden dresses weird and Adidas threw 200 mil at him.
7nine
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diehard03
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:30a, 12/6/16
Rangers aren't projected to gain much (a whole 2 runs) in differential to 2017.

Save the BAS until the season.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to diehard03 • 8:36a, 12/6/16
AG
diehard03 said:
Rangers aren't projected to gain much (a whole 2 runs) in differential to 2017.

Save the BAS until the season.
No BAS. They've won 87 or more games per year 7 out of the last 8 years. I know 8 years ago has nothing to do with next year, but they've proven to be a solid team over time. The off season isn't over and they have strong young group of guys in their early 20s to go with some solid vets.
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diehard03
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8:54a, 12/6/16
Quote:
No BAS. They've won 87 or more games per year 7 out of the last 8 years. I know 8 years ago has nothing to do with next year, but they've proven to be a solid team over time. The off season isn't over and they have strong young group of guys in their early 20s to go with some solid vets.

Their run differential was much higher in those years and they played you when you were bad. If they hold to the projection of a run differential of 10, then things bode well.

My original point was just to say that one shouldn't expect the Rangers to sustain the wins on that level of performance.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to diehard03 • 8:55a, 12/6/16
AG
diehard03 said:
Quote:
No BAS. They've won 87 or more games per year 7 out of the last 8 years. I know 8 years ago has nothing to do with next year, but they've proven to be a solid team over time. The off season isn't over and they have strong young group of guys in their early 20s to go with some solid vets.

Their run differential was much higher in those years and they played you when you were bad. If they hold to the projection of a run differential of 10, then things bode well.

My original point was just to say that one shouldn't expect the Rangers to sustain the wins on that level of performance.
I agree and that is why I said "They have a good club and will win games with a better differential."
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diehard03
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9:08a, 12/6/16
And, as of today, the Astros have made moves (and some regression to the mean with current players) to garner a projection of 7 more wins and a 71-point increase in differential.

The Rangers have garnered a 13 win reduction and a net gain of 2 runs in differential and are due for a serious regression against their Pyth W-L.

I get the cautiously optimistic approach. Cubs fans watched the Cardinals make up players on their way to 100 wins. Then, 2016 happened. (Baseball happened.) But, so far, I see little to get anyone worried about the Rangers...and neither do the predictions.

Yes, you still have to play the games. No reason not to recognize he most likely outcome though.
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Farmer1906
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9:23a, 12/6/16
AG

Quote:
And, as of today, the Astros have made moves (and some regression to the mean with current players) to garner a projection of 7 more wins and a 71-point increase in differential.

The Rangers have garnered a 13 win reduction and a net gain of 2 runs in differential and are due for a serious regression against their Pyth W-L.
What projections are you using?
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Thriller
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9:40a, 12/6/16
AG
Looking at predictions now is silly. There are a ton of runs scored and runs saved sitting out there waiting to be signed. Any prediction now assumes they won't be signed and therefore won't impact the season.
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diehard03
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:47a, 12/6/16
Fangraphs. The source of the records in the justice tweet linke earlier.
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Nuke LaLoosh
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9:49a, 12/6/16
AG
I will be surprised if we think we roll into next season with our current pitching staff. Still don't think we bode well in a 7 game series with our staff. Who knows what you get out of keuchel, who knows if lance or Morton stay healthy, who knows what you end up getting out of Musgrove, Fiers sucks. Collin is the only guy where we know what we get, and it's around a #4 caliber starter.

In the same note, why trade mchugh? He's far from a world beater but we definitely need him in our rotation.

If we can sign EE with a front loaded contract, that would open up numerous trade scenarios for a top arm. Archer makes all too much sense to me. Sale is a pipe dream without giving up Bregman.

Would you trade springer for Quintana?

Any pitchers who were injured last year that we could make a run at? This is a very astros thing to do.
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aggiematt235
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In reply to Nuke LaLoosh • 10:31a, 12/6/16
AG
Would not trade Springer for Quintana at this point.

I think there are moves to be made, but I'd rather trade prospects at this point than every day starters.

Springer, while not a world beater at the plate, is a solid bat and a stud defender as well as a team leader.

Would rather roll out Springer every day than have Quintana every 5 days at this point.
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Ag_07
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In reply to aggiematt235 • 11:16a, 12/6/16
AG
The thinking is that in a couple years when the young core is due their big contracts Springer would be the one they let walk. Like you stated he is a decent bat and stud defender but he's not quite as dependable, super streaky, and somewhat injury prone.

If he's gonna walk in 2018 might as well trade him for something in return while his stock is high. He's young, proven at an MLB level, and cheap.

I wouldn't be super excited about it but if they were trade anyone I rather it be him than a young arm like Musgrove or high ceiling prospect like Tucker (the younger). The fact is you're going to have give something up to get something and Springer is a nice piece of trade bait for multiple reasons.
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Farmer1906
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11:21a, 12/6/16
AG
But losing Springer now we lose our 2nd to 5th best bat. If we're a team that is going to dominate on offense then I would rather push my chips all in and trade a prospect and go for it now before we're forced to lose someone to not being able to afford it.
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Nuke LaLoosh
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11:28a, 12/6/16
AG
Don't agree w it all, but a good read

https://theringer.com/houston-astros-roster-brian-mccann-josh-reddick-carlos-beltran-4edbb6e73a35#.278jsds5v
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Sq16Aggie2006
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In reply to Nuke LaLoosh • 11:30a, 12/6/16
My wife wishes I had gone "paunchy" like Beltran
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diehard03
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11:32a, 12/6/16
Quote:
Would not trade Springer for Quintana at this point.

I know it's projections, but Quintana about a 0.5 WAR above Springer.
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Sq16Aggie2006
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11:32a, 12/6/16
Holy Crap; I had totally forgotten our Opening Day payroll was 26 million in 2013....what the hell.
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titanmaster_race
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In reply to Nuke LaLoosh • 11:37a, 12/6/16
Nuke LaLoosh said:
Don't agree w it all, but a good read

https://theringer.com/houston-astros-roster-brian-mccann-josh-reddick-carlos-beltran-4edbb6e73a35#.278jsds5v


This article claims Fiers is a dependable starter. I quit reading.
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Thriller
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12:19p, 12/6/16
AG
Sale to Red Sox, according to my MLB app. Moncada the centerpiece
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mAgnoliAg
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12:21p, 12/6/16
AG
Yep
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Nuke LaLoosh
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In reply to titanmaster_race • 12:27p, 12/6/16
AG
titanmaster_race said:
Nuke LaLoosh said:
Don't agree w it all, but a good read

https://theringer.com/houston-astros-roster-brian-mccann-josh-reddick-carlos-beltran-4edbb6e73a35#.278jsds5v


This article claims Fiers is a dependable starter. I quit reading.


I took that as more of - "you know what you're getting" with Fiers
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Nuke LaLoosh
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12:27p, 12/6/16
AG
At least Sale isn't in our division...
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iBrad
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In reply to titanmaster_race • 12:37p, 12/6/16
AG
In terms of staying consistent the whole season, Fiers and McHugh were our most dependable starters. Fiers gave us 30 starts last year. He had 14 quality starts and we were 18-12 in his starts. McHugh had 33 starts with 16 quality starts. We were 21-12 in his starts. They were pretty much the same guys all year long. Both had a slightly down year, but they weren't the problem with the rotation.
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diehard03
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12:38p, 12/6/16
Quote:
At least Sale isn't in our division...

Let us know if that's any consolation when he's the Game 1 starter.
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Ag_07
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12:51p, 12/6/16
AG
Interesting

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iBrad
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12:55p, 12/6/16
AG
The Red Sox gave up their top prospect, Yoan Moncada and number five prospect, pitcher Michael Kopech, plus two other prospects. So essentially, that would be Bregman and Paulino for us. I'm interested to see the quality of the two other prospects.
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Mr.Bond
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12:58p, 12/6/16
AG
Is bregman still a prospect? If so when does that tag drop off?
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PETE2019
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In reply to Mr.Bond • 1:00p, 12/6/16
AG
No he isn't, you lose your status as prospect when you lose your rookie status
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titanmaster_race
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In reply to iBrad • 1:00p, 12/6/16
I'd like to look at average run support per start by pitcher. It felt like every time Fiers took the mound, he gave up tons of runs. Yet he would always get incredible run support. Perhaps that's just my bias wanting to confirm my distaste for him.
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