***** Official 2017 Astros Off Season Thread *****

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diehard03
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8:39a, 12/2/16
Quote:
I agree. The Astros can build an unbelievable package for Sale without including Bergman or Springer... they are just negotiating right now.

Honestly I dont think so. The White Sox are under immense pressure to substantially win any trade with Sale because of what Epstein did in his trades during the fire sales in the past. (Little brother syndrome exists heavily @ White Sox. See the chatter about the White Sox refusing to deal with Cubs due to rivalry). I can't imagine any trade with the Astros that doesn't include Bregman would be perceived as a "win" to this city and it's media. White Sox brass has very thin skin (read: Kenny Williams)

Maybe Quintana instead of Sale would be palatable.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to diehard03 • 8:44a, 12/2/16
AG
diehard03 said:
Quote:
I agree. The Astros can build an unbelievable package for Sale without including Bergman or Springer... they are just negotiating right now.

Honestly I dont think so. The White Sox are under immense pressure to substantially win any trade with Sale because of what Epstein did in his trades during the fire sales in the past. (Little brother syndrome exists heavily @ White Sox. See the chatter about the White Sox refusing to deal with Cubs due to rivalry). I can't imagine any trade with the Astros that doesn't include Bregman would be perceived as a "win" to this city and it's media. White Sox brass has very thin skin (read: Kenny Williams)

Maybe Quintana instead of Sale would be palatable.
The Astros still have 5-6 Top 100 prospects including some young pitching that's not counting anymore like Michael Feliz and Devenski, etc.

I do like Quintana a lot.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 8:56a, 12/2/16
AG
According to MLB

29. Martes
49. Tucker
69. Whitley
70. Paulino
83. Fisher

I think Martes & Tucker have potential to be above average big league players. It is too early to tell on Whitley, but I think Paulino & Fisher are just guys at the next level. This is obviously just guesses on my part, but that is what you have to do for prospects. If we were to give up all 5 I am not sure the Sox would accept it.
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The Beef01
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9:02a, 12/2/16
AG
This thread is fantastic and I don't give enough credit where it's due during the season...I have spent all the offseasons looking around for Astros discussion elsewhere and had the total blind spot for the MLB board over here.

Love the depth of knowledge of the farm system over here and the aggregation of rumors; nothing else to add at the moment other than to say that it has been a great offseason thus far and I'm imagining the next week should be hot-and-heavy.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to The Beef01 • 9:04a, 12/2/16
AG
The Beef01 said:
This thread is fantastic and I don't give enough credit where it's due during the season...I have spent all the offseasons looking around for Astros discussion elsewhere and had the total blind spot for the MLB board over here.

Love the depth of knowledge of the farm system over here and the aggregation of rumors; nothing else to add at the moment other than to say that it has been a great offseason thus far and I'm imagining the next week should be hot-and-heavy.
It is. I occasionally write for the CrawfishBoxes and the discussion in the comments over there used to be really good when the Astros were losing over 100 per season, but the last 2 seasons, the number of commenters on that board have shot through the roof and the comment section is a wasteland nowadays. This is a great spot to discuss here. Enough knowledgeable commenters to make it interesting and enough different viewpoints to generate some nice discussion/debate.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:06a, 12/2/16
AG
aggie1906 said:
According to MLB

29. Martes
49. Tucker
69. Whitley
70. Paulino
83. Fisher

I think Martes & Tucker have potential to be above average big league players. It is too early to tell on Whitley, but I think Paulino & Fisher are just guys at the next level. This is obviously just guesses on my part, but that is what you have to do for prospects. If we were to give up all 5 I am not sure the Sox would accept it.
You're right. Those 5 won't get you Sale.

If the White Sox won't back away from Bregman, then I'm out. Someone wrote a very good article on fangraphs about losing Bregman and gaining Sale would likely only increase total team WAR by around 2 or something. I'm going to go find that.
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irish pete ag06
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9:09a, 12/2/16
AG
Found it...



Quote:
Sale, of course, is better than all of them. He projects as a five-win pitcher in 2017, one of the legitimate true aces in the sport. A team with Sale is better than a team with Bregman, Turner, or any of the rest.

But when including one of these guys, the magnitude of the upgrade becomes a lot smaller. For the Astros or the Nationals, they'd be swapping out a +3 WAR player for a +5 WAR player, which has roughly the same effect on the team's expected record as, say, signing Josh Reddick. Reddick is a nice player who made the Astros better, but I didn't hear too many people talking about how that move dramatically changed the course of Houston's 2017 season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-and-giving-up-a-stud/
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Farmer1906
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 9:16a, 12/2/16
AG
To me that doesn't pass the smell test. And as previously mentioned having Sale for the postseason would likely be a huge impact. If Dallas doesn't return to form then that leaves on McCullers as potential ace. We all know about his injury and high pitch count issues.

Do we really want to only have McCullers when we got head to head vs say Kluber, Carrasco, & Salazar in a 5 or 7 games series.
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iBrad
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9:18a, 12/2/16
AG
A trade for Sale that included Bregman would be less about the regular season and more about the playoffs, in my opinion. The idea of starting a series with Sale on the mound and bumping the rest of the rotation down a spot looks pretty damn enticing.

While Sale would be a marginal boost during the season, the post-season is where his value would really be felt.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to iBrad • 9:26a, 12/2/16
AG
iBrad said:
A trade for Sale that included Bregman would be less about the regular season and more about the playoffs, in my opinion. The idea of starting a series with Sale on the mound and bumping the rest of the rotation down a spot looks pretty damn enticing.

While Sale would be a marginal boost during the season, the post-season is where his value would really be felt.
Marginal.

We would be basically be replacing Sale for Fiers right? Maybe Sale for Musgrove?

If it is Fiers then we improve from

ERA: 4.48 -> 3.46
WHIP: 1.358 -> 1.037
K: 134 -> 233
QS: 14 -> 23

It wouldn't be hard to imagine we win an additional 5 games in the regular season right?

Oh wait we finished 5 games behind the WC teams.
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Sea Gull
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9:47a, 12/2/16
AG
I don't think you trade away any of the core pieces. Springer would be ok to trade, but, at this point, the Astros need to keep the core of Bregman, Correa, and Altuve intact. Plus grow the wolfpack by one with EE.
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Bulldog73
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9:49a, 12/2/16
AG
While I like what Bregman will do on the field, Springer really seems to be the catalyst these guys rally around. Sure, if he were to be traded, someone else would hopefully step up, but he gets the team going it seems.
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iBrad
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:46a, 12/2/16
AG
But, you'd be losing Bregman and downgrading an everyday player, so yes, marginal over the course of a 162-game season.

Once Bregman got past his initial slump, he was a significant piece of our offense that had us back in the WC race. When he got hurt, our offense went to **** again and so did our season.

The playoffs is a different animal. While you'd lose offense with Bregman, having Sale pitch twice and bumping someone like Fiers, Morton, or Musgrove out of the playoff rotation would have a much bigger impact.

If we add Encaracion, I think the offense could withstand losing Bregman, both this year and the next three or four. If we add Beltran, there's no way I'm giving up Bregman.

Lastly, if Bregman is the centerpiece of the deal, the supporting pieces of the deal need to be dialed back a bit. Sale isn't worth the farm.
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texasaggie2015
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1:53p, 12/2/16
AG
We should wait until he goes on Sale
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AgDC
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6:58p, 12/2/16
irish pete ag06
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 7:27p, 12/2/16
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
We should wait until he goes on Sale


Maybe see if we can pair him with something to Eaton.
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3B Paul 97
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7:52p, 12/2/16
AG
Things have seemed to slow. Hopefully that is not due to other teams jumping in and driving up the price. I hope they keep Bregman.
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E
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8:00p, 12/2/16
AG
I think it has more to do with the CBA
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Basketball and Chain
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In reply to E • 8:10p, 12/2/16
AG
E said:
I think it has more to do with the CBA

Yup, I think teams wanted to know what the luxury tax threshold was going to be and also have a final decision on roster sizes.

I think it'll heat up around the Winter Meetings.
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Nuke LaLoosh
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 9:43a, 12/3/16
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
Found it...



Quote:
Sale, of course, is better than all of them. He projects as a five-win pitcher in 2017, one of the legitimate true aces in the sport. A team with Sale is better than a team with Bregman, Turner, or any of the rest.

But when including one of these guys, the magnitude of the upgrade becomes a lot smaller. For the Astros or the Nationals, they'd be swapping out a +3 WAR player for a +5 WAR player, which has roughly the same effect on the team's expected record as, say, signing Josh Reddick. Reddick is a nice player who made the Astros better, but I didn't hear too many people talking about how that move dramatically changed the course of Houston's 2017 season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-and-giving-up-a-stud/


Good article, and it makes sense. HOWEVER, it discounts the value of a stud like Sale in the playoffs. If you assume we will make the playoffs either way with sale or bregman, you have to believe that Sale starting 2 games every series trumps what bregman brings to the table over his replacement.

I'm not mad at it either way, as there are obvious pluses and minuses to both situations, but I'm in favor of dealing him for Sale. IMO it's always better to have the known quantity versus the unknown, especially when you're going for the gold.
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Ag_07
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10:30a, 12/3/16
AG
Y'all remember when Scott Kazmir was the known talent and we were front runners in the AL after adding him? Yeah...

Nothing is a known when making these kinds of trades and there's always risk involved no matter which you play it.

I'm on board with the thinking that if we land EE keep Breg, but if we land Beltran deal Breg for Sale.
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iBrad
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In reply to Ag_07 • 11:27a, 12/3/16
AG
Remember when we traded for Gomez and he was supposed to be one of the best on the team in WAR last year?
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Psych
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11:38a, 12/3/16
AG
I member.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ag_07 • 12:10p, 12/3/16
AG
Ag_07 said:
Y'all remember when Scott Kazmir was the known talent and we were front runners in the AL after adding him? Yeah...

Nothing is a known when making these kinds of trades and there's always risk involved no matter which you play it.

I'm on board with the thinking that if we land EE keep Breg, but if we land Beltran deal Breg for Sale.
I think you have it backwards.
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NotGibbs
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12:23p, 12/3/16
BELTRAN?!?
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aggiematt235
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12:23p, 12/3/16
AG


Fack
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titanmaster_race
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12:24p, 12/3/16
Fack. Hope this doesn't mean we are losing bregman
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Mr.Bond
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12:25p, 12/3/16
AG
**** this means probably no Edwin
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. . .
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12:25p, 12/3/16
1 year, $16M, full no-trade clause
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astros4545
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12:26p, 12/3/16
AG
Booooooooooooooo


He better produce or he is gonna get some hate
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Psych
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12:31p, 12/3/16
AG
Why would this mean we lose Bregs?
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Mr.Bond
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12:34p, 12/3/16
AG
I swear to God if we trade bregman....... It will forever haunt this franchise
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astros4545
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In reply to Psych • 12:35p, 12/3/16
AG
Yah, not sure where that's coming from

We have more money to sign rich Hill or someone similar
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Sea Gull
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12:36p, 12/3/16
AG
****. Hate this move.
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Sea Gull
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12:37p, 12/3/16
AG
And I'm still never cheering for this dewsh bag.
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