Right on, gas prices about to go down woohoo!

… but Labor Day is coming up when they historically fall anyway.

I love the sunshine pumpers as much as anyone, but this kind of rhetoric is just not correct. It will take years for the VZ output to really rise, and we were already getting something like half of the 1.2 mbpd they have going out right now. We also will need refineries reconfigured beyond the one that can handle that sour crude variety I think (plus pipeline deals to the ones in the midwest etc. that do so).

So, I am just going to post this as it's fun but again not correct imho. Gas is going to be around 3 bucks still when Nov. hits at this point, imho (factoring in the leftist states that want it closer to $6 and have no intention of dropping their regulatory/tax burdens on their sheeple).

Oil will go under $50.
Gas prices will crater to $2/gallon.
Inflation will plummet.
Stocks will go parabolic.
Job market will shock everyone.
AI bubble never pops.
All before midterms.
The golden age is here folks.
Get your seatbelt in and enjoy the ride.
Red wave incoming. pic.twitter.com/UOA7P96gRH

— Jon Elder (@BlackLabelAdvsr) August 29, 2026

The seasonal drop in demand will be nice though, and help as much as anything else such as VZ or Hormuz.

LegalDrugPusher said:

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Gas is-/low as $3.21 here in DFW in a few places

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Last year, at this time, average gas prices in Texas hovered around $2.80. Believe we'll be back to those prices by November.

The VZ deal is another generational game changer, but you are correct regarding immediate effect on gas prices.

What it does do is end discussion on the SPR running dry, what happens when the next conflict breaks out in the ME and it continues to weaken the oil cartels (OPEC and such).

The overall optimism may impact prices but not directly. The dredging and alternates for the SOH have the more immediate impact, whilst also having a generational impact.

People can mock the mission accomplished memes all they want, but in 2026 Trump secured a 65 billion barrel oil reserve, a boon to US producers as well, decoupled us from ME oil, and isolated Iran from its friends and foes alike.

That's a lot of sunshine to pump. But back to pumping gas, the VZ deal will still impact the price and the human psyche, perhaps the latter more than the former.

flown-the-coop said:

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The VZ deal is another generational game changer, but you are correct regarding immediate effect on gas prices.

What it does do is end discussion on the SPR running dry, what happens when the next conflict breaks out in the ME and it continues to weaken the oil cartels (OPEC and such).

The overall optimism may impact prices but not directly. The dredging and alternates for the SOH have the more immediate impact, whilst also having a generational impact.

People can mock the mission accomplished memes all they want, but in 2026 Trump secured a 65 billion barrel oil reserve, a boon to US producers as well, decoupled us from ME oil, and isolated Iran from its friends and foes alike.

That's a lot of sunshine to pump. But back to pumping gas, the VZ deal will still impact the price and the human psyche, perhaps the latter more than the former.

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All true.

And means exactly zilch if the price of gas doesn't veer massively downward.

Most of my friends are right of center, but don't really enter the political world, nor vote. Lots of them are pissed because gas, which affects prices of most things, are where they're at and everything is more expensive....even if that's merely illusory.

One can be mad a gas ticking a smidge higher and still vote with a good conscience at the ballot box (as I know you do).

Tell your friends to carpool and drive the minivan more. Gas price anxiety is psycho-political warfare.

Gas prices are not set by government policy (taxes on them are) and the navigation of national security, global stability cannot be based on gas prices alone.

That said, Trump will be going non-stop on gas prices if the market remains stubborn.

Prepaid Golden Trumo gas cards, gas tax holidays, etc… not a damn thing would surprise me over the next 60 or so days.

The Venezuelan deal will have change prices far down the road. Oil prices are based on what can be delivered on a certain date, not who has rights to an oil field. Their infrastructure is crap and people are still (rightly so) super cautious about spending real money down there.
Additionally, you don't really believe the dredging rumor do you? That would take a legit fleet of dredges months or years to do. The fleet would have been painfully obvious to see, as would the spoil.
.

EFR said:

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The Venezuelan deal will have change prices far down the road. Oil prices are based on what can be delivered on a certain date, not who has rights to an oil field. Their infrastructure is crap and people are still (rightly so) super cautious about spending real money down there.

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Hold onto that hope our oil companies won't invest in VZ.

I'm not saying they won't, but folks have been burned bad before, and even when they do you are looking at years before realizing any meaningful return. It make shock some to learn that companies aren't excited about giving the Venezuelans an oil industry for free, again, simply based on the word of trump.

EFR said:

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The Venezuelan deal will have change prices far down the road. Oil prices are based on what can be delivered on a certain date, not who has rights to an oil field. Their infrastructure is crap and people are still (rightly so) super cautious about spending real money down there.
Additionally, you don't really believe the dredging rumor do you? That would take a legit fleet of dredges months or years to do. The fleet would have been painfully obvious to see, as would the spoil.
.

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Yea, I said as much about immediate impact on gas prices and to an extent on oil prices. But generally optimism over the long term brought on by the VZ deal will still have a suppressive impact on the WTI price.

And outside of Orange Man Lies, do you have evidence the dredging is just a rumor?

EFR said:

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I'm not saying they won't, but folks have been burned bad before, and even when they do you are looking at years before realizing any meaningful return. It make shock some to learn that companies aren't excited about giving the Venezuelans an oil industry for free, again, simply based on the word of trump.

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Which companies have voiced their disinterest? Burisma?

I am cautiously optimistic about the VZ deal but am very curious about the exact terms. They just signed over the rights? What rights exactly? Are we really counting them as US oil reserves? And of course what happens if things deteriorate politically and they try to take them back again?

It's a positive to secure access to reserves not in the ME but anything not under the jurisdiction of US law enforcement, courts, and business environment has to include a significantly higher risk premium.

I would love to chat with some REs working on Venezuela right now, I don't know much about the challenges it faces. Seems like a very interesting project. The idealistic version of me sees this as a chance to have another example of "evil fossil fuels" lifting a society out of poverty and accelerating development. I hope it pans out.

None of that has anything to do with the own-goal that is, was, and continues to be the Iran conflict. The SPR is still very close to the functional minimum, diesel supplies are near all time lows, and crude and refined product prices/spreads are high.

flown-the-coop said:

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EFR said:

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I'm not saying they won't, but folks have been burned bad before, and even when they do you are looking at years before realizing any meaningful return. It make shock some to learn that companies aren't excited about giving the Venezuelans an oil industry for free, again, simply based on the word of trump.

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Which companies have voiced their disinterest? Burisma?

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Exxon called VZ "uninvestible" earlier this year. Maybe this deal changes that though.

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/news-releases/2026/our-perspective-regarding-the-situation-in-venezuela#Darrendeliveredthefollowingremarks

"….what happens if things deteriorate politically and they try to take them back again?"

We Maduro them, once again.

Texas12&0 said:

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"….what happens if things deteriorate politically and they try to take them back again?"

We Maduro them, once again,

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Do you think oil companies will want to invest in a project that relies on US sanctioned military coups to keep it functional? What if someone else is in power? Clown response.

Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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EFR said:

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I'm not saying they won't, but folks have been burned bad before, and even when they do you are looking at years before realizing any meaningful return. It make shock some to learn that companies aren't excited about giving the Venezuelans an oil industry for free, again, simply based on the word of trump.

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Which companies have voiced their disinterest? Burisma?

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Exxon called VZ "uninvestible" earlier this year. Maybe this deal changes that though.

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/news-releases/2026/our-perspective-regarding-the-situation-in-venezuela#Darrendeliveredthefollowingremarks

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Darren has expressed multiple times he is more open to VZ.

And common sense tells you that if they are cool with Nigeria and Iraq, they probably can sort out VZ.

Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:

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Texas12&0 said:

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"….what happens if things deteriorate politically and they try to take them back again?"

We Maduro them, once again,

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Do you think oil companies will want to invest in a project that relies on US sanctioned military coups to keep it functional? What if someone else is in power? Clown response.

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Though the details haven't come out, I'd imagine there will be government backed loan protection. And to protect that loan protection we will Maduro them. There's always a solution to a problem with the right leaders in charge.

Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:

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Texas12&0 said:

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"….what happens if things deteriorate politically and they try to take them back again?"

We Maduro them, once again,

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Do you think oil companies will want to invest in a project that relies on US sanctioned military coups to keep it functional? What if someone else is in power? Clown response.

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Except they do exactly that all the time around the world. Clown meet world.

Chevron obviously is down there as they work with the state owned companies. I am not aware of any of the other majors stampeding to get boots on the ground down there. And even if they were, any benefit is years down the road. So while good, someone investing billions in VZ today has no effect on the current gas situation.

Who cares if the benefit is down the road? Geez, guy, things like this don't happen overnight.

I obviously understand that, which I why I said that. I was responding to posters that are under the impression gas is going to drop on Monday morning.

EFR said:

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I obviously understand that, which I why I said that. I was responding to posters that are under the impression gas is going to drop on Monday morning.

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Gas will not. But VZ will impact oil prices Monday morning.

General optimism over the announcement will ensure that. Though the dredging near Oman likely has the larger impact.

I would love to see some actual (non AI) pics of the fleet of dredges, barges and support ships that did this in record time…

I don't think this was a digging of the Panama Canal-level event. Also note that Oman recently had some other dredging projects so equipment may have been in the vicinity.

There has not been other reporting, but also no indication it's false. It may be overrepresented in the X port by "Morse Report".

flown-the-coop said:

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I don't think this was a digging of the Panama Canal-level event. Also note that Oman recently had some other dredging projects so equipment may have been in the vicinity.

There has not been other reporting, but also no indication it's false. It may be overrepresented in the X port by "Morse Report".

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That's what I'm talking about. The Iranians used their ace card and the other countries took counter measures like this and the pipelines. Iran and the communist Dems didn't think this through. It's never happened before so it remained outside their realm of possibilities. But here it is and the whole region and the world's oil supply will be more stable than ever.

Thanks Mr. Trump.

Texas12&0 said:

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Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:

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Texas12&0 said:

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"….what happens if things deteriorate politically and they try to take them back again?"

We Maduro them, once again,

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Do you think oil companies will want to invest in a project that relies on US sanctioned military coups to keep it functional? What if someone else is in power? Clown response.

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Though the details haven't come out, I'd imagine there will be government backed loan protection. And to protect that loan protection we will Maduro them. There's always a solution to a problem with the right leaders in charge.

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More details are coming out. 100 year deal.

Venezuela's own statement just filled in the gap Trump's post left open.

The mechanism is a joint venture between the US government and a Venezuelan operator: the US gets a 55% equity stake in output + the right to buy crude at cost, structured through 100 year concessions.… https://t.co/xL0NHInSQ8 pic.twitter.com/1EEDOTT9at

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) August 29, 2026

More here. Venezuelans seem likely to benefit quite a bit too.

Quote:

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The deal will kickstart development in 17 of Venezuela's most promising oil and gas fields, said Delcy Rodrguez, Venezuela's interim president.
She called the agreement a "historic milestone in bilateral relations between Venezuela and the US" that would "usher in a new era of recovery, growth, production, security and prosperity for our people".

Most of Venezuela's oil reserves are found in the Orinoco belt, an area of 21,000 square miles along the South American nation's Orinoco river, with significant reserves also found under Lake Maracaibo.

The deal has the potential to be transformational for US energy security at a time when supplies have been severely affected by Washington's prolonged war with Iran.

Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, who is tasked with bringing Caracas into the fold, said the deal demonstrated how "President Trump's bold foreign policy is driving America First wins: securing stable reserves and low-cost oil in our hemisphere and lowering gas prices here at home".
"For the Venezuelan people, this deal will bring nearly $100bn in private investment, support thousands of high-paying jobs and drive the reconstruction of Venezuela's economy," he added.

With the 17 fields housing an estimated 90 billion barrels of proven reserves, it would enable the US to double the amount of oil and gas it is sitting on. Venezuela says it has 300 billion barrels of proven reserves, the largest in the world.

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The big loser is probably China, so Democrats of course came out highly upset. Jack had more yesterday on what will be needed to really boost this production. It's not a simple process, but no doubt Chevron/US oil and gas companies can make this work much better than it does at present.

🇻🇪🛢️The Orinoco Belt holds some of the largest oil deposits on Earth, and none of it reaches a tanker without four separate upgrading plants first.

Venezuela's extra heavy crude has to pass through Hamaca Petropiar, Petrocedeno, Petromonagas and Petro San Felix, a combined… pic.twitter.com/I8z5azx9Lj

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) August 29, 2026

"It is processed by Chevron..."
Chevron, CITGO, Aramco, and others use it. Many Gulf Coast refineries were modified long ago to profitably process heavy sour crude. (Chevron has claims on VZ crude because they have had extensive E & P operations in VZ, but they use it when it…

— EthanolPaul (@ethanol_paul) August 29, 2026

I agree with the reply. The strikes impacting the price of diesel globally are not coming from the Houthi/Iranian shorelines.

Yes. Yes. Yes. Plunder and pillage the oil. Lift them up but keep them as serfs. Iran will never do this so we'll just have to steal it from them and continue to subjugate them until they will.

Choke off China.

$3.59 at 209 E/W State Highway 71, Ellinger, TX

1876er said:

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You guys are beyond delusional if you think we are actually going actually going to get this Venezuelan oil. This will be exactly like all the trade deals Trump has made that don't actually ever get signed.

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Trump has trade deals that are never signed are you just making things up now?

ChoppinDs40 said:

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Yes. Yes. Yes. Plunder and pillage the oil. Lift them up but keep them as serfs. Iran will never do this so we'll just have to steal it from them and continue to subjugate them until they will.

Choke off China.

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yes things were better for Venezuela before Trump good point.

Labor Day weekend coming up. Don't expect prices to drop.