Did Sweden end up taking the best approach?

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DadHammer
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9:09a, 4/12/20
AG
going to be an interesting comparison very soon.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

If I am reading that correctly, which maybe I am not, they seem to be doing ok. They will also reach herd immunity way before everyone else with way less damage to their economy and family stress from loss of jobs and financial ruin.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

Interesting.
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zachsccr
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9:25a, 4/12/20
AG
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3105426
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DadHammer
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In reply to zachsccr • 9:26a, 4/12/20
AG
That is a backfire thread.
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culdeus
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In reply to DadHammer • 9:29a, 4/12/20
AG
DadHammer said:
That is a backfire thread.


Is that a type of plane that the Germans bombed the moon with?
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FrecklesDad
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In reply to DadHammer • 9:30a, 4/12/20
AG
I have thought all along that was the best approach. Killing the economy is going to kill way more people than this virus is.
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DadHammer
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In reply to culdeus • 9:31a, 4/12/20
AG
Very similar.

Was hoping for a better more polite discussion on why, just maybe, Sweden is going to come out the best after all is said and done. It's very interesting and it's the approach I actually prefer. Depending on population density and available med care. Places with super high population density like NY cannot be compared to say Houston for example with our more spread out way of life and hotter more humid weather, as an example.

I just think it's going to be an interesting test case. As more of their population is infected and heals, their death rate will drop much faster than isolated populations. More deaths early but less later on kind of thing. If the old and sick are isolated then why isolate the rest of the population if you don't have too? Just wondering.
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benchmark
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9:44a, 4/12/20
AG
Quote:
The problem with lockdowns is that "you tire the system out," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist, told the Guardian. "You can't keep a lockdown going for months it's impossible." He told Britain's Daily Mail: "We can't kill all our services. And unemployed people are a great threat to public health. It's a factor you need to think about."
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DadHammer
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In reply to benchmark • 9:45a, 4/12/20
AG
Benchmark, I actually agree with that.
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FrecklesDad
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In reply to DadHammer • 9:46a, 4/12/20
AG
I would be interested to see what their infection rate is. That alone will bring down their death rate tremendously.
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DadHammer
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In reply to FrecklesDad • 9:51a, 4/12/20
AG
From what I could tell, and I could be wrong here, I don't think they are aggressively testing because they decided to let the virus run it's course but isolate the old and sick and be smart and protect yourself. Letting people decide for themselves how much to shelter in place vs going out.
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unmade bed
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In reply to DadHammer • 9:52a, 4/12/20
The difference in us and Sweden is population size which increases the burden on the healthcare system. If we would have taken the Sweden approach (which I agree is a valid and potentially more effective approach) we were told it would overrun our healthcare system. NYC got dangerously close to that until the sheltering in place kicked in.

We will not reduce the number of cases or deaths by our actions, just extend them out over time to ease burden on hospitals and possibly allow time for treatment/vaccine (pipe dream imo).

Economies of entire world were destined to be wrecked once this thing broke out. Sweden going to take a huge hit to economy even with their approach.
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Player To Be Named Later
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9:55a, 4/12/20
AG
The Swedes are also much more likely to follow basic rules to minimize risks and spread while keeping many things open.

Most of our population here at home would not be so good at those things. Hell, we've locked most things down but a ton of people are still being idiots.

I have a feeling the Swedes do much better at keeping things open but also safe than most of America would.
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DadHammer
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In reply to unmade bed • 9:59a, 4/12/20
AG
You make great points. Don't want to over run the hospital. In Texas I don't think we are Even close to that.

But their economy will not be effected nearly as bad as others that have shut down. It will be effected for sure. To me, imho, we have approached overkill status and need to open up but in a smart way like Sweden. No big events, tables farther apart, limited numbers in stores based on sqrft and number of employees per sqrft. Stuff like that. People will not quarantine much longer. People who want to isolate are free to do so. I believe I will get this sooner or later so I prefer sooner.
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Federale01
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In reply to DadHammer • 10:00a, 4/12/20
AG
I just don't see how you isolate the old and the sick. Those are cared for by younger people either in long term care facilities or multigenerational homes. If you let this wash over the population, you can't isolate them from it as people will have to treat/feed/care for that population. If they live independently, then they have to shop, etc. We can't stayed shutdown much longer, it's just not feasible. But I don't know how you can protect older folks from this.
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MaxPower
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10:02a, 4/12/20
I don't see how Sweden's healthcare system could handle all those sick people at once either. The system scales with the population. Almost 20% of their population is over 65. This thing spreads like wildfire once it gets into these elderly communities so it will be interesting for sure. The cynic in me thinks this is the way for a socialist country to wipe out their elderly, high cost population.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 10:03a, 4/12/20
AG
Player, do you think it's time to start opening back up to save the economy or you think it's still too early?

At some point I think people will start to ignore the lock downs as outlined by their reasoning to stay open more. Not entirely just more. No big gatherings and such.

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DadHammer
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In reply to Federale01 • 10:07a, 4/12/20
AG
I know that's a tough one. Grandma is in the home in CS right now at 102 years old. We have a camera so we can see her. In the end can we realistically protect her 100%. I actually don't think we can but we are doing our best and that's all you can really do. At some point I think almost everyone gets this virus and if she gets it we don't think she will recover. Too many underlying conditions. It's just a bad situation and a reminder of how precise the little time we have on earth really is.
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DadHammer
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In reply to MaxPower • 10:08a, 4/12/20
AG
Max, I thought about that also. But so far they are handling the sick. They are a small population so maybe that's why they can handle it better?
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Lemmys Rickenbacker
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10:10a, 4/12/20
Lockdowns will never happen again. You cannot hide from Viruses and hope they die off. You have to approach them head on like Sweden and most countries below the equator did. You develop antibodies in the populace kills it off. You cannot hide until a Vaccine is developed. Even if one came out tomorrow only about half the population at best would take it. If you are sick or care for an ill individual protection should be up to you not locking down the entire population
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nortex97
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10:16a, 4/12/20
AG
It sounds like their approach wasn't so terrible as advertised;



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Complete Idiot
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10:16a, 4/12/20
Now sure why another thread was needed. For both threads, the results of different approaches around the world can't be determined until we have the final data and some hindsight.

Sweden is geographically between Finland and Norway, as of today the deaths per 1 million population (as shown at the link OP provided)

Sweden 89
Norway 23
Finland 10


But of course a country being more open now would have higher numbers at this stage of the pandemic. It would take about a year, or more, to get final data and see if there are waves that hit due to limiting of activities and then opening back up later.
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Dad
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In reply to DadHammer • 10:24a, 4/12/20
AG
DadHammer said:
You make great points. Don't want to over run the hospital. In Texas I don't think we are Even close to that.

But their economy will not be effected nearly as bad as others that have shut down. It will be effected for sure. To me, imho, we have approached overkill status and need to open up but in a smart way like Sweden. No big events, tables farther apart, limited numbers in stores based on sqrft and number of employees per sqrft. Stuff like that. People will not quarantine much longer. People who want to isolate are free to do so. I believe I will get this sooner or later so I prefer sooner.

I agree.

We need to have a goal to not overwhelm our hospitals. Our goal cannot be to slow the spread for 18 months and wait on this vaccine, It is spreading now even with the economy shut down so it's not like we can stop it completely and then go back to normal 4 weeks later.

I think there are plenty of ideas out there that if all used together could slow the spread enough to not overwhelm our healthcare system without causing an economic depression that will kill ten times the amount of people as the virus.
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PJYoung
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10:30a, 4/12/20
AG
I think the goal of our lock down has always been to buy us time to equip our hospitals with enough PPE, not overload our ICUs and get us closer to a viral remedy that lessens the severity of the virus. I've always felt like slowly opening things up by May 1st for most of the country was the way to go.

I think most of our hospitals should be equipped by then.
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unmade bed
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10:33a, 4/12/20
Sweden has socialized healthcare so they are able to deal with the onslaught by rationing care and "death panels." We don't have that in the US nor an appetite for it, so that is why we are doing what we are doing.

2 different approaches but ultimately I think results will be similar on both health and economic outcomes. We chose to rip bandaid off on economy and use socialism to address economic damage in order to drag out effects on healthcare system. Swedes chose to rip bandaid off on healthcare and will use socialism to address the damage, so their economy probably won't tank as quickly as ours, but it will decline. Our economy will eventually come back and it will come back at a rate much greater than Sweden's comeback, so in long run I think results will be pretty much the same. The difference is just timelines of the suffering in both the economy and health.
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PJYoung
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10:33a, 4/12/20
AG


Keep in mind they are a country of just 10 million.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 10:48a, 4/12/20
AG
The other thread was too negative. Thanks for your input though. Happy Easter!
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DadHammer
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In reply to unmade bed • 10:50a, 4/12/20
AG
Good post, but I think Sweden's economy will rebound to its pre virus state way faster than we will. They haven't shut down near as much as we have. In the end our way of life is way better so our economy will always pass theirs, agree with that for sure.
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HouAggie2007
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In reply to DadHammer • 11:02a, 4/12/20
Too negative or just not the echo chamber of agreement you were looking for?
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Sq 17
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11:19a, 4/12/20
there maybe no official lockdown but i would be quite certain the bars and restaurants in Sweden have very few customers and everyone who can is working from home. I would also be surprised if Dentists , Salons and Gyms were operating with normal numbers of customers
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cone
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11:30a, 4/12/20
AG
the Swedes are going to look like *******s if a strong therapeutic is developed over summer
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DadHammer
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In reply to Sq 17 • 11:30a, 4/12/20
AG
They are definitely not operating as normal, I think the article was saying 50% or so, but way better than shut down completely . Way better.
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DadHammer
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In reply to cone • 11:31a, 4/12/20
AG
I hear you but we can't stay locked up much longer. If we stayed locked up all summer there won't be much to go back too. The economic collapse would be mind bottleing!
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cone
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:32a, 4/12/20
AG
the problem is no amount of time would prepare the hospitals for a strong wave

and there's no sentinel surveillance to mitigate that wave

so this is just wishful thinking in mid April
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Pumpkinhead
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12:15p, 4/12/20
AG
The UK tried the Sweden approach for awhile and it kind of backfired on them. Maybe it will work out better for the Swedes, but presumably still too early to definitively tell.

It does seem logical that there is not a 'one size fits all' thing to this, what may be the best approach in Sweden may not be the best approach in New York City, and the approach best for New York City may not make sense in Wyoming, and so forth.
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TXAggie2011
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12:22p, 4/12/20
AG
You obviously asked the question rhetorically.

So, all I'll say is (1) "very soon" is going to be too soon to make most comparisons and (2) be careful in believing approaches would result in the same results in different places.
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