Keegan99 said:
UTExan said:
Sweden now looking at over 17,000 projected deaths. Way up.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden
Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
To get to 17,000 deaths, the Swedes would need over two straight months of 185 deaths, with 185 chosen since it is the most daily deaths they've had to date, and which occurred two weeks ago. The mean daily deaths over the subsequent two week period has been 65.
So where is the growth?
There is no indication that infections or deaths in Sweden are increasing at anything resembling an exponential rate. The active cases curve over the last month is very nearly linear.
Based on the logarithmic curve for deaths it will be a bit of a shock if deaths even reach 10,000.
Why are you limiting the time period to 2 months. The infections could continue for a year or more and the deaths will continue to rack up.
I think Sweden's pop. is about 30 mil and it takes 60% of the pop to get it to reach herd immunity, then 18,000,000 people ultimately will get it (unless a vaccine comes along sooner - doubtful). And if the mortality rate is 0.1% - that's 18,000 people that will die.
The ultimate mortality rate is the probably the biggest unknown. That can swing the numbers pretty significantly. And if there is a therapy that proves to be highly effective it could be reduced.
The US has basically 11 times the population of Sweden, so do those numbers.