GAC06 said:

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Can anyone explain why Sweden's cases continue a steady climb, but their deaths peaked two weeks ago and have dropped sharply?

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GAC06 said:

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Can anyone explain why Sweden's cases continue a steady climb, but their deaths peaked two weeks ago and have dropped sharply?

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Sandman98 said:

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In consecutive posts you said the winter is responsible for both increased cases and decreased cases. Fascinating.

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ORAggieFan said:

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How's that government intervention in FL vs CA working?

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Keegan99 said:

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Glad to see you admitting that policies which confine people to homes are harmful.

By the way, where is the spike in the US from Thanksgiving that all of the experts predicted?

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Gordo14 said:

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ORAggieFan said:

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How's that government intervention in FL vs CA working?

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Population density and climate are easy explinations for why this is happening. Again, if you want to prove your point you have to normalize for that or you have to model California without the government mandates. Until you do either, you're literally arguing that somehow less human interaction = more transmission.

Florida may very well look bad in January or February. Given where they are geographically that's about when you'd expect to see it. For the same reason that Dallas is worse than Houston right now.

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All of the policies from governments thinking they can control a virus? Useless.

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goodAg80 said:

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All of the policies from governments thinking they can control a virus? Useless.

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What?

Are you saying the vaccine is wasted effort? I am not following.

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But this does not prevent people from making simplistic judgments.

Sweden's response to the COVID-19 virus is a perfect example of this habit. The response has not been decided by politicians, it has not involved major adjustments, and all key decisions have been left to the state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has relied on appealing to his compatriots to behave responsibly.

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To begin with, Sweden shut down high schools and universities, but not grade schools and kindergartens; it restricted very large gatherings, allowed restaurants, shops, and services to remain open, while leaving to the individual the responsibility of limiting smaller gatherings. The early consequence of these decisions seemed severe: Excess mortality began to rise steeply in late March, and in April it reached levels far higher than in any of the country's immediate Nordic neighbors. But by midsummer, cumulative mortalities divided by the size of the population were considerably lower in Sweden than in several populous European nations. By the middle of November, cumulative death rates were twice as high in Belgium, 45 percent higher in Spain, 25 percent higher in the United States, United Kingdom, and Italy (the country with extensive restrictive lockdowns) and 12 percent higher in France. On the other hand, the mortality rate in Finland and Norway was only about 10 percent that of Sweden, and Denmark's rate was about 80 percent lower.

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EuroMOMO, which monitors mortality, shows Swedish deaths rising substantially above normal from the 13th to the 21st week of 2020, returning within normal range by the 27th week, and steadily declining afterward to below the normally expected rate by the 40th week of 2020. By the 45th week, Swedish mortality remained well below the expected level and even below the Norwegian rate.

Meanwhile France, Italy, Spain and Belgium had, once again, high excess mortalities, and only the Finnish mortality was well below the Swedish rate. The final verdict about Sweden's relative success or indefensible failure is still many months in coming.

Obviously, you can use these comparisons to portray Sweden as either a success (vis--vis Spain, the U.K., or the United States) or a failure (vis--vis Germany or Finland). But we will have to wait until the second wave of the pandemic has fully asserted itself to see how such comparisons will fare.

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Keegan99 said:

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If you want to see seasonality.

All of the policies from governments thinking they can control a virus? Useless.

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Keegan99 said:

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Holidays and gatherings?

Every great plains and midwest state peaked before Thanksgiving.

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GAC06 said:

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You know that deaths lag, right? And that what he said is accurate?

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Keegan99 said:

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Great. Now do screenshots of detected infections (aka "cases") for those same states.

Here's a freebie. Note the peak of November 19th.

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Mamma mia!
Last but not least, the Melodifestivalen a national obsession since Abba won over Europe with Waterloo in 1974 will run for over a month, starting February 6th. With 28 participating artists and four separate competitions leading up to the grand finale on March 13th, Swedes should be well-equipped to handle a continued "soft lockdown" in case the Covid situation is still gloomy. We already know the late winter/early spring weather will be.

But by the end of spring, even young, healthy Swedes should have received the Covid-19 vaccine (according to the government's current, possibly too optimistic plan). This means the arrival of summer could be even more of a raucous event than it usually is. Anyone who's moved here during the dark months and then witnessed the mass release of pale, shorts-wearing, beer-swilling Swedes as soon as the first rays of sunshine peek through the clouds knows what I'm talking about. One Swedish news podcast recently predicted that the post-Covid summer of '21 will be a "human koslpp". God help us.

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cone said:

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it's pretty much the weather imo

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RGV AG said:

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I don't think the weather is a lynch pin impact. I believe, from personal experience, that airflow and sharing air or recirculated air in confined spaces is more of a factor in the spread.

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cone said:

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California isn't on the same continent?

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