Did Sweden end up taking the best approach?

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BiochemAg97
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In reply to tysker • 12:38p, 6/1/20
AG
tysker said:
That's what welfare is in choice theory and behavioral economics

eta: welfare being the cost at which individuals are willing to participate (or not). Longer+stronger lockdowns => more costly welfare (seems intuitive) and in Sweden the elderly cost more (also intuitive). I'm curious as to what US-centric results would look like.
I don't get why you say elderly cost more. Obviously if we lock elderly down more and keep them locked down longer, that costs more than a short lesser lockdown. So, given this particular virus and the desire to lock down elderly harder and longer, there is a larger cost born by the elderly.

But does a similar lockdown of a similar duration cost more to the elderly than the young? I'm not sure I understand why that is intuitive.
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tysker
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 1:17p, 6/1/20
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
tysker said:
That's what welfare is in choice theory and behavioral economics

eta: welfare being the cost at which individuals are willing to participate (or not). Longer+stronger lockdowns => more costly welfare (seems intuitive) and in Sweden the elderly cost more (also intuitive). I'm curious as to what US-centric results would look like.
I don't get why you say elderly cost more. Obviously if we lock elderly down more and keep them locked down longer, that costs more than a short lesser lockdown. So, given this particular virus and the desire to lock down elderly harder and longer, there is a larger cost born by the elderly.

But does a similar lockdown of a similar duration cost more to the elderly than the young? I'm not sure I understand why that is intuitive.
According to the paper, yes the elderly have a higher welfare cost but that makes sense as they have the greater benefit with respect to QALY and relative to this COVID outbreak.

From the abstract and conclusion provide in important caveat:
Quote:
This result indicates that strict stay-at-home policies are likely to be cost-effective only if they slow the spread of the disease much more than more lenient ones.

Quote:
These results indicate that stricter and longer lockdowns, such as those recently imposed in Italy and China, are disproportionately more costly than more lenient ones, such as those in Germany and Denmark. Whether the benefits in terms of reduced spreading of the virus outweigh such costs is outside of the scope of this paper. However, our results highlight that very strict stay-at-home policies are likely to be cost-effective only if the spread reduction is much higher than for more lenient policies.
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Keegan99
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1:49p, 6/1/20
AG
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Squadron7
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2:04p, 6/1/20
AG
Did. The. Hospitals. Ever. Get. Overrun?
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GAC06
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:11p, 6/1/20
AG
Keegan99 said:


Another reason comparing deaths from the worldometer site is pointless.
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tysker
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In reply to GAC06 • 2:24p, 6/1/20
AG
GAC06 said:
Keegan99 said:


Another reason comparing deaths from the worldometer site is pointless.
Normalizing causes of deaths across the world always struck as an impossible task. I'm sure there's a lack of consensus about how to define such things among individual doctors and practitioners, let alone hospitals, cities, states and countries. Plenty of competing interests, ethics and standards
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DadHammer
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In reply to Squadron7 • 6:48a, 6/2/20
AG
Squadron7 said:
Did. The. Hospitals. Ever. Get. Overrun?

No, they have not from all I have read.
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Keegan99
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9:53a, 6/2/20
AG
Oh.

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Rutedown
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10:04a, 6/2/20
Sweden is rushing to launch a formal inquiry into its no-lockdown coronavirus strategy, as its death rate remains among the world's highest

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-rushes-launch-no-lockdown-assessment-inquiry-deaths-mount-2020-6
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Complete Idiot
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10:44a, 6/2/20
Should I always take a tweet from el gato Malo as fact? Does anyone vet the claim that falling down stairs in Sweden could be labeled a covid death? Why would Sweden, who if anything wants to make their decisions look good, so that?
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HotardAg07
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11:18a, 6/2/20
AG

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GAC06
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 11:33a, 6/2/20
AG
Will be interesting to see those graphs as the year progresses. Given how many deaths are from nursing homes, we may have seen excess deaths early in the year that otherwise would have occurred later in the year.
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Keegan99
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11:45a, 6/2/20
AG
Here is how Sweden counts deaths:



(https://www.barrons.com/news/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-pass-4-000-health-authorities-01590408903)

This is Finland:



https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17567-finland-s-coronavirus-deaths-rise-closer-to-100-actual-number-could-be-much-higher.html

Anyone comparing "COVID death totals" among the nordics (or any countries, potentially) is ignoring the VASTLY different ways the countries are counting. Sweden is hyper aggressive with classification. Finland is very, very lax.

The only way to potentially compare is all cause mortality.
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HotardAg07
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1:12p, 6/2/20
AG
Keegan,
The graphs I posted were for all-cause mortality.
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beerad12man
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1:23p, 6/2/20
AG
It will still be interesting to see which ones flatten out over the course of the year. I still believe the majority of the spike were those that were going to be in this years numbers. Time will tell.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Keegan99 • 1:30p, 6/2/20
AG
Nvm
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twk
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3:52p, 6/2/20
AG
Quote:
The scientist behind lockdown in the UK has admitted that Sweden has achieved roughly the same suppression of coronavirus without draconian restrictions.

Neil Ferguson, who became known as "professor lockdown" after convincing Boris Johnson to radically curtail everyday freedoms, acknowledged that, despite relying on "quite similar science", the Swedish authorities had "got a long way to the same effect" without a full lockdown.

Sweden has adopted a far softer approach to Covid-19 than elsewhere in Europe, introducing voluntary social-distancing measures and keeping restaurants and bars and many schools open.

As of the end of May it had recorded 4,350 deaths from Covid-19. By contrast, as of Monday there had been at least 39,045 in England.

Financial data released in May also suggested Sweden had so far avoided a heavy blow to its economy by shunning a lockdown, its GDP contracting just 0.3 per cent in the first three months of the year, compared to 3.8 per cent across the eurozone.

The UK economy contracted two per cent, the sharpest drop since the height of the financial crisis.
Quote:
Giving evidence to the same Lords committee on Tuesday, Professor Ferguson said he had the "greatest respect" for Swedish scientists.

"They came to a different policy conclusion but based really on quite similar science."

He added: "I don't agree with it. But scientifically, they're not that far from scientists in any part of the world."
Quote:
While pointing out that Sweden's mortality rate is not declining in a similar way to that of other European countries, Prof Ferguson said: "Nevertheless it is interesting that adopting a policy which is short of a full lockdown - they have closed secondary schools and universities and there is a significant amount of social distancing but it's not a full lockdown - they have got quite a long way to the same effect.

"That is something we are looking at very closely."
Telegraph article
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DadHammer
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In reply to twk • 8:38p, 6/2/20
AG
[Let's avoid the personal attacks--Staff]
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fig96
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In reply to DadHammer • 11:10p, 6/2/20
AG
A lot of us actually don't have a particular agenda and are just interested to see what happens.
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Ribbed Paultz
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6:46a, 6/3/20


Quote:
At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic.

"Clearly, there is potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden," Tegnell said.

The comments appeared to frustrate some members of the government. Sweden's minister of health and social affairs, Lena Hallengren, said Tegnell "still can't give an exact answer on what other measures should have been taken. That question remains, I think," the minister said, according to Dagens Nyheter.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Ribbed Paultz • 6:59a, 6/3/20
AG
Ribbed Paultz said:


Quote:
At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic.

"Clearly, there is potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden," Tegnell said.

The comments appeared to frustrate some members of the government. Sweden's minister of health and social affairs, Lena Hallengren, said Tegnell "still can't give an exact answer on what other measures should have been taken. That question remains, I think," the minister said, according to Dagens Nyheter.
I think they have acknowledged that they could have protected elder care facilities better. But that is probably true for most countries. IIRC, their elder care deaths were about half their deaths, much like the US.

I think you always have to ask what could have been done better. That doesn't necessarily mean the overall strategy was bad, just that there can be improvement in the details.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Ribbed Paultz • 7:42a, 6/3/20
AG
"Anyone comparing "COVID death totals" among the nordics (or any countries, potentially) is ignoring the VASTLY different ways the countries are counting. Sweden is hyper aggressive with classification. Finland is very, very lax.

The only way to potentially compare is all cause mortality."

Even at the most aggressive counting they are better than the U.K., Spain, Italy, Belgium, and others who locked down.
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Squadron7
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10:15a, 6/3/20
AG
Again....if the hospitals were never overrun in Sweden then what really accounts for the different mortality rates? It would have to fall in the areas of 1) Different treatments or, 2) Different system of counting COVID deaths.

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dragmagpuff
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In reply to Squadron7 • 12:44p, 6/3/20
AG
Squadron7 said:
Again....if the hospitals were never overrun in Sweden then what really accounts for the different mortality rates? It would have to fall in the areas of 1) Different treatments or, 2) Different system of counting COVID deaths.

Different age distributions of infected. If you perfectly locked down the olds, your death rate/infection would be way lower.
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dragmagpuff
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12:48p, 6/3/20
AG

Also, from the Bloomberg article:
Quote:
What's more, there's so far limited evidence that Sweden's decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.


Obviously in an interconnected global economy, you don't have perfectly isolated test cases, but the economic benefits may not be as strong as thought.
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twk
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In reply to dragmagpuff • 12:58p, 6/3/20
AG
dragmagpuff said:

Also, from the Bloomberg article:
Quote:
What's more, there's so far limited evidence that Sweden's decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.


Obviously in an interconnected global economy, you don't have perfectly isolated test cases, but the economic benefits may not be as strong as thought.
No one country can avoid the fallout from a world-wide recession caused by the other 180 countries locking down. The question is, would the world have been better off taking the Swedish approach? i.e., would the level of deaths be tolerable. Anyone who contends that a different global decision regarding lockdowns would have still resulted in the same magnitude of harm to the economy is really getting out on a limb. There would have been some slowdown with no governmental action, but not nearly as much.
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fig96
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In reply to twk • 1:18p, 6/3/20
AG
I feel like we're also way too early to really determine anything economically, whether in Sweden or anywhere else. It's interesting to look at current indicators but long term results remains to be seen, and second quarter earnings are going to be bleak.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to dragmagpuff • 3:38p, 6/3/20
AG
dragmagpuff said:

Also, from the Bloomberg article:
Quote:
What's more, there's so far limited evidence that Sweden's decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.


Obviously in an interconnected global economy, you don't have perfectly isolated test cases, but the economic benefits may not be as strong as thought.
I find it hard to believe the 7% will hold true for Europe as a whole.

Additionally, you would need to consider the effect of radical changes in govt debt (or at least reallocation of budgeted funds) as a lot of Europe lockdown countries basically took on the burden of paying the workforce. Programs like paying companies 80% of their payroll takes a lot out of the govt coffers.
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94chem
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9:53p, 6/3/20
60% of Swedes live alone. Sorry if this has already been mentioned. They don't really compare to anybody.
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Keegan99
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In reply to 94chem • 9:59p, 6/3/20
AG
94chem said:
60% of Swedes live alone. Sorry if this has already been mentioned. They don't really compare to anybody.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/524909/sweden-number-of-single-person-households/

About 1.8MM of 4.7MM households are single occupant. And with a population of 10.3MM that means about 17.5% of Sweden live alone. That's nowhere close to 60%.
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94chem
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In reply to Keegan99 • 10:24p, 6/3/20
Keegan99 said:
94chem said:
60% of Swedes live alone. Sorry if this has already been mentioned. They don't really compare to anybody.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/524909/sweden-number-of-single-person-households/

About 1.8MM of 4.7MM households are single occupant. And with a population of 10.3MM that means about 17.5% of Sweden live alone. That's nowhere close to 60%.


Sir John, read the blue highlighted text in the article you just linked. I meant to say that 60% of the households were single. I can't decipher the math in that link.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to 94chem • 10:28p, 6/3/20
Its not even 60% of households, much less 60% of Swedes.

However, I would like to see the percent of single person households vs the percent in America.
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94chem
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 10:32p, 6/3/20
Complete Idiot said:
Its not even 60% of households, much less 60% of Swedes.

However, I would like to see the percent of single person households vs the percent in America.


Perhaps, but that's not what the link says.

Sweden's household size is 2.2. US is 2.6. India is 4.9.
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94chem
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 10:35p, 6/3/20
Complete Idiot said:
Its not even 60% of households, much less 60% of Swedes.

However, I would like to see the percent of single person households vs the percent in America.


The number I heard for the US was 28% versus 58% for Sweden. Obviously, 1.8/4.7 is less than 58%, but the web is full of places, including the one linked by Sir John, that seem to say more than half.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to 94chem • 10:55p, 6/3/20
Sorry, I'm supportive of saying comparing Sweden to America, or almost any two countries, to each other has a lot of caveats. But.....you said 60% of Swedes live in single person households. That is not factual as far as I can tell and I'd ask that you either edit the post or provide proof.
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