FIFYQuote:
What is going to happen is most likely they will relax shelter-in-place orders, some businesses will gradually reopen back up,
FIFYQuote:
What is going to happen is most likely they will relax shelter-in-place orders, some businesses will gradually reopen back up,
Am I the only one chuckling about "what does Coach Gillispie have to do with this?" I guess I need to use the "googles" and figure out what BCG stands for LOL.KidDoc said:This is why A&M is studying BCG vaccine as a preventative for COVID. India should have been over run with deaths but it was not. Is universal BCG the answer?culdeus said:cone said:
is South Korea going to be a closed system into perpetuity?
as far as the virus is concerned, they are still virgin timber
So is Vietnam. And to an extent India.
KidDoc said:This is why A&M is studying BCG vaccine as a preventative for COVID. India should have been over run with deaths but it was not. Is universal BCG the answer?culdeus said:cone said:
is South Korea going to be a closed system into perpetuity?
as far as the virus is concerned, they are still virgin timber
So is Vietnam. And to an extent India.
It is a vaccine to prevent Tuberculosis. We don't have an issue with TB in the US so it isn't one of the standard courses. Other countries (SK, India, etc) still routinely give the vaccine. It is approved for Bladder cancer in the US because it also has the effect of generally boosting the immune system.swintie said:Am I the only one chuckling about "what does Coach Gillispie have to do with this?" I guess I need to use the "googles" and figure out what BCG stands for LOL.KidDoc said:This is why A&M is studying BCG vaccine as a preventative for COVID. India should have been over run with deaths but it was not. Is universal BCG the answer?culdeus said:cone said:
is South Korea going to be a closed system into perpetuity?
as far as the virus is concerned, they are still virgin timber
So is Vietnam. And to an extent India.
Pumpkinhead said:
A year from now, in your daily routine, whether if it having to stand on a little dot in some line to stay 6 feet apart, have to wear a mask somewhere, there is protective thing between you and a cashier so can't breath in their face, capacity limits, whatever...there will probably be something in your 'new normal' that reminds you of COVID.
Those results don't really surprise me. It isn't expected to prevent infection since it isn't going to create any covid specific antibodies. And the study is too small to really see an effect on severity with only 1 severe case in each group. Also they are only looking at people who have COVID symptoms.CompEvoBio94 said:
The BCG vaccination connection merits more study. However, a new study from Israel finds no evidence of BCG vaccination protecting against SARS-CoV-2 infections. Apparently, since 1982 only immigrants to Israel from countries with high levels of TB have been regularly immunized with BCG. So, within Israel they can look for an effect of the vaccination. They found no significant effect of BCG vaccination: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766182
hope you are right.BiochemAg97 said:
I'm going to disagree with your reasoning for 4, but not really with your sentiment.
California Ag 90 said:Pumpkinhead said:
A year from now, in your daily routine, whether if it having to stand on a little dot in some line to stay 6 feet apart, have to wear a mask somewhere, there is protective thing between you and a cashier so can't breath in their face, capacity limits, whatever...there will probably be something in your 'new normal' that reminds you of COVID.
things i feel confident predicting at this point.
1. a year from now, in the vast majority of the country, life will largely be as it was pre-February. the virulence and actual death rate for the broad population is simply too low to justify the sort of long-term social disruption you are predicting. Most businesses cannot maintain profitability in the scenarios you describe, and government cannot bail out those businesses indefinitely. rational behavior will dictate far greater protective effort and restrictions for at-risk categories, and normalcy for the rest. States/regions that attempt to stick to the sort of 'everybody is at risk' strategies as you describe are going to be economically decimated and face rapid declines in financially well-off population - which will force them to relax those one-size-fits-all restrictions.
2. elderly will continue to be at risk, especially in nursing home environments where many elderly are densely packed. this will drive a reversion to elders living out life with family instead of being in elder care facilities. home health care service businesses are a great investment in anticipation of this inevitable trend.
3. obesity as a 'normal' condition to be embraced (Lizzo etc) will fade as a social justice trend.
4. there will be no vaccine for COVID 19. I really hope i'm wrong about this, but see no reason for the broad statements of faith that these viruses that have long confounded scientists are suddenly going to be overcome by massive amounts of money and effort. nature has her way and her day, whether we like her or not.
just my view.
I stopped reading the moment I saw it was Washington Post.74OA said:
Sweden's approach wouldn't work in many countries: TRUST
"What Sweden has demonstrated is the advantage of a high degree of trust in government. People did not have to be ordered to stay at home, wash their hands and flatten the curve; they accepted the recommendations of the government and followed them. In a public health emergency, this reflects common sense and good judgment, a contrast to the noisy demands in the United States to break free from government orders."
NASAg03 said:
They also say that Georgia isn't a success story because they fake their numbers or don't sequence them properly (hard to do based on differences between date reported and actual dates).
fig96 said:NASAg03 said:
They also say that Georgia isn't a success story because they fake their numbers or don't sequence them properly (hard to do based on differences between date reported and actual dates).
I'd be very hesitant to call Georgia a success story at this point.
They did seem to put out some creatively manipulated graphs last week and got rightly called out for it, and their case numbers seem a bit suspect. The graph of cases there per reported data follows no logical curve or pattern which would seem to indicate inaccurate data at some point in the process.
It's really too early to tell what's going to happen anywhere in the US at this point with quarantine restrictions being lifted very recently, we'll know a lot more in a few weeks.
It sure seems like being out of order creates a downward trend that doesn't actually exist.dragmagpuff said:fig96 said:NASAg03 said:
They also say that Georgia isn't a success story because they fake their numbers or don't sequence them properly (hard to do based on differences between date reported and actual dates).
I'd be very hesitant to call Georgia a success story at this point.
They did seem to put out some creatively manipulated graphs last week and got rightly called out for it, and their case numbers seem a bit suspect. The graph of cases there per reported data follows no logical curve or pattern which would seem to indicate inaccurate data at some point in the process.
It's really too early to tell what's going to happen anywhere in the US at this point with quarantine restrictions being lifted very recently, we'll know a lot more in a few weeks.
For reference, this is the Georgia plot being referenced. I'm not sure what they were going for by arranging the dates out of order.
https://thisistrue.com/fixing-georgia/fig96 said:It sure seems like being out of order creates a downward trend that doesn't actually exist.dragmagpuff said:fig96 said:NASAg03 said:
They also say that Georgia isn't a success story because they fake their numbers or don't sequence them properly (hard to do based on differences between date reported and actual dates).
I'd be very hesitant to call Georgia a success story at this point.
They did seem to put out some creatively manipulated graphs last week and got rightly called out for it, and their case numbers seem a bit suspect. The graph of cases there per reported data follows no logical curve or pattern which would seem to indicate inaccurate data at some point in the process.
It's really too early to tell what's going to happen anywhere in the US at this point with quarantine restrictions being lifted very recently, we'll know a lot more in a few weeks.
For reference, this is the Georgia plot being referenced. I'm not sure what they were going for by arranging the dates out of order.
But you could also say 5/7th of the Massachussets population is in the Boston MSA, with a population density of 462 people per square mile, vs Sweden with 62 people per square mile.Keegan99 said:
Those articles always blindly paint Sweden as some death factory. Their numbers are markedly better than Massachusetts despite a 40%+ larger population.
I didn't see Stockholm mentioned in the post I quoted, only Sweden and Massachusetts. Since Sweden has 40% larger population that Mass, that seemed to be what you were comparing.Keegan99 said:
I chose Massachusetts because Boston and Stockholm have similar population sizes and densities of 13k per square mile.
There just aren't many American cities that dense.
Fitch said:
Can't explain why, but every time I read about Sweden the mental image is Toronto, even though it's basically the population of Georgia.
Herd immunity is a nice goal for smaller countries, but I don't think the US has the stomach to get there sans vaccine. The math isn't kind.
I could be wrong, but I don't think you've heard anything because the announcements have been focused, almost exclusively, on aspects of life where there is to be a change in status. I think nursing homes are still on lockdown in most states, denying visitors, ramping up testing for staff, and making sure that staff has PPE. I haven't heard of any state easing restrictions on nursing homes, but, I could have missed that.Beat40 said:Fitch said:
Can't explain why, but every time I read about Sweden the mental image is Toronto, even though it's basically the population of Georgia.
Herd immunity is a nice goal for smaller countries, but I don't think the US has the stomach to get there sans vaccine. The math isn't kind.
Have you heard anything from any leader in America about actually trying to protect the elderly and nursing homes in any reopening plan? The answer is no. America does not apparently have the will to tell certain people they are more at risk than someone else and include it in the plan.
If we actually planned around the risk areas, we can cut down the mortality rate drastically and get to where we need to be. I'd argue we could have done it from the beginning, at least with age groups, based on corroborating data from SK, Italy, and other more reliable countries.
To clarify, I'm in the pro-reopening camp. I'm also hopeful we'll approach this thoughtfully and seriously.DadHammer said:
Fitch
I hear you but IMHO, the virus is here and if your hospitals have plenty of capacity locking down your economy does nothing but kill more in the long run and ruin your country. The deaths are coming whether we can stomach them or not. Texas hospitals are not even close to having issues, actually the opposite. Without patients people are getting furloughed and no one is getting treated. How many deaths are we going to see now from a multitude of other conditions not getting treated? It will dwarf covid before long. Someone posted early the suicide hotline calls have increase like 8,000% alone. I haven't read that study myself so don't quote that.
Open being safe, not stupid. Americans can do anything they put their minds to. I think people are taking safety serious now and want to get back to work and living.
Yes, and I disagree with the bolded part. Texas is halfway through a two week period testing every nursing home resident and staff member in the state. It's a focus, but we seem to be figuring out it's practically impossible to indefinitely put up a fire wall around vulnerable populations. People are imperfect at maintaining the rigor required to keep the bug out.Beat40 said:Fitch said:
Can't explain why, but every time I read about Sweden the mental image is Toronto, even though it's basically the population of Georgia.
Herd immunity is a nice goal for smaller countries, but I don't think the US has the stomach to get there sans vaccine. The math isn't kind.
Have you heard anything from any leader in America about actually trying to protect the elderly and nursing homes in any reopening plan? The answer is no. America does not apparently have the will to tell certain people they are more at risk than someone else and include it in the plan.
If we actually planned around the risk areas, we can cut down the mortality rate drastically and get to where we need to be. I'd argue we could have done it from the beginning, at least with age groups, based on corroborating data from SK, Italy, and other more reliable countries.