Seriously?
Did Sweden end up taking the best approach?
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Last: 6 mo ago by Enzomatic
fig96 said:You're right, we're obviously doing everything perfectly. That's why we're leading every other country in cases while most of the civilized western world has virtually eliminated new cases.Carnwellag2 said:Stupid post and statement not based factfig96 said:
, if people had been responsible all along we wouldn't have the case numbers we have.
I don't understand why it's so damn hard to understand most of the US shut everything down before the virus even got a foothold here outside of NYC. So many people feel like we're failing because we complete delayed a US first wave, and I feel like people aren't acknowledging this very much.
I also don't understand why people are expecting us to have the lowest amount of cases in western civilization when we have 330MM people.
Further, I don't understand when you say other western countries have virtually "eliminated" the virus why you refuse to acknowledge a lot of them had big first waves, which we are having now. A lot of those western counties who have it "under control" now also took stricter, freedom oppressing measures such as not allowing people out of their houses or apartments but an hour or two a day to get groceries. I for one am glad the US never did that.
How about we look at how our hospitals are doing and death rates on a per capita basis are doing rather than just looking at cases counts?
I don't understand why when we have 25% of the world's cases with 4% of the population and continue to add cases at 10-20x or more the rest of the western world it's controversial to say we aren't doing a very good job.
How many other countries are testing outside of hospitals?! The US is testing at an insane level.
Sweden started widespread testing late in their curve, saw that it was meaningless, and quit. They smartly realized the only thing that mattered was number hospitalized and deaths.
Sweden started widespread testing late in their curve, saw that it was meaningless, and quit. They smartly realized the only thing that mattered was number hospitalized and deaths.
if only we had the will to make use of our massive testing capacity by forcibly quarantining positive cases into de facto FEMA camps
I have no desire to even bother to argue about this so I'll leave y'all to it. If you think we're doing a great job in general handling this situation I don't know what to tell you.
We're not doing a great job, but you don't need to use misleading statistics to prove that point.
we're not doing a great job
fig96 said:
I have no desire to even bother to argue about this so I'll leave y'all to it. If you think we're doing a great job in general handling this situation I don't know what to tell you.
Anyone arguing total cases really doesn't have a valid point and loses all credibility.
Total cases aren't necessarily the indicator to go by but still matter, this whole "but you didn't die" argument tries to make a non-binary discussion very binary.ORAggieFan said:Anyone arguing total cases really doesn't have a valid point and loses all credibility.fig96 said:
I have no desire to even bother to argue about this so I'll leave y'all to it. If you think we're doing a great job in general handling this situation I don't know what to tell you.
But feel free to pick another category we're leading the world in. Y'all are picking a weird hill to die on here.
fig96 said:Total cases aren't necessarily the indicator to go by but still matter, this whole "but you didn't die" argument tries to make a non-binary discussion very binary.ORAggieFan said:Anyone arguing total cases really doesn't have a valid point and loses all credibility.fig96 said:
I have no desire to even bother to argue about this so I'll leave y'all to it. If you think we're doing a great job in general handling this situation I don't know what to tell you.
But feel free to pick another category we're leading the world in. Y'all are picking a weird hill to die on here.
We're not leading the world in deaths per capita. We're 10th.
USA! USA! USA!
With NY and NJ skewing the numbers
If you took out New York and New Jersey we'd be 19th.
fig96 said:
I don't understand why when we have 25% of the world's cases with 4% of the population and continue to add cases at 10-20x or more the rest of the western world it's controversial to say we aren't doing a very good job.
None of what you're referring to is per capita. Compare relative numbers and maybe a discussion can be had.
Should case counts be monitored? Yes. Are they a good indicator of how we are doing vs. other countries? Not really.fig96 said:
Total cases aren't necessarily the indicator to go by but still matter, this whole "but you didn't die" argument tries to make a non-binary discussion very binary.
Unless every country is testing with the exact same policies and quantities of tests, case counts will be basically meaningless when comparing one country to an other. Hospitalizations, ICU beds, and deaths are a much better measuring stick.
Monitoring case rates does help the US see whether we are trending upwards or downwards in the spread. However, comps to other countries using cases really only helps political animals who want to play gotcha politics.
Any comparison of countries should start with demographics.
If a country does not have a large number of 80+ year old individuals, specifically males 80+, the fatality numbers are going to look quite good.
If a country does not have a large number of 80+ year old individuals, specifically males 80+, the fatality numbers are going to look quite good.
You're right. Your virus is going to kill us all. Board up the windows! You watch too much Today Show. Their lead in yesterday was "On The Brink".
RandyAg98 said:
You're right. Your virus is going to kill us all. Board up the windows! You watch too much Today Show. Their lead in yesterday was "On The Brink".
So because I said if we'd been responsible all along we'd be in much better shape with case numbers I now think we're all going to die.RandyAg98 said:
You're right. Your virus is going to kill us all. Board up the windows! You watch too much Today Show. Their lead in yesterday was "On The Brink".
And y'all wonder why we can't have intelligent discussions about this.
US, Canada, and major European countries - death per MM population
That will be interesting to see in 6-12 months when we can somehow compare how each country was counting deaths. Sweden was anyone with covid that dies within 30 days was counted as covid whether the got shot or run over.
I am guessing we will have to compare overall average deaths from all causes for a 12-18 month period??
I am guessing we will have to compare overall average deaths from all causes for a 12-18 month period??
I'd like a definition of responsible all along
reality is we are a predominantly service based economy and a major consumer of global economic production
so we were boned from the outset. I'd say the muddle hasn't been ideal but it's not been completely catastrophic
yet
reality is we are a predominantly service based economy and a major consumer of global economic production
so we were boned from the outset. I'd say the muddle hasn't been ideal but it's not been completely catastrophic
yet
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Be careful drawing conclusions based on unemployment rates in the EU. Most of those countries made strong interventions to prevent that from rising, which cost a lot of government money.DadHammer said:
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Here is the EU as a whole.
Yes, when the govt pays your employer so they pay your salary, it is still govt support of the worker, just magically doesn't count as unemployement.dragmagpuff said:Be careful drawing conclusions based on unemployment rates in the EU. Most of those countries made strong interventions to prevent that from rising, which cost a lot of government money.DadHammer said:
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Here is the EU as a whole.
dragmagpuff said:Be careful drawing conclusions based on unemployment rates in the EU. Most of those countries made strong interventions to prevent that from rising, which cost a lot of government money.DadHammer said:
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Here is the EU as a whole.
It also means that their recovery will occur much quicker. Our decision to push people onto unemployment has lead to a massive increase in permanent job losses. Our decision not to renew the $600 weekly plus up means that most of the Newly unemployed will be taking in about 50% of the income they were pre-covid. This is only going to make the economic situation worse in this country. We will likely end up spending more per capita, because it's going to take us much longer to recover.
I agree. The EU approach to dealing with the economic damage of the pandemic was much smarter.SirLurksALot said:dragmagpuff said:Be careful drawing conclusions based on unemployment rates in the EU. Most of those countries made strong interventions to prevent that from rising, which cost a lot of government money.DadHammer said:
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Here is the EU as a whole.
It also means that their recovery will occur much quicker. Our decision to push people onto unemployment has lead to a massive increase in permanent job losses. Our decision not to renew the $600 weekly plus up means that most of the Newly unemployed will be taking in about 50% of the income they were pre-covid. This is only going to make the economic situation worse in this country. We will likely end up spending more per capita, because it's going to take us much longer to recover.
The lack of competent federal support, coordination, and leadership in the US response is a tremendous failure.
I would take Sweden's or Germany's response over anything the US has done. They both have a plan prioritizing different things. They weren't perfect, but it's much better than no plan.
Germany had similar GDP damage to the US, but is in a much, much better position to recover due to a) having a much lower virus prevalence and b) having people still in their jobs.
Sweden had less economic damage (although I think that 7.8x number is comparing two different numbers) and similar public heath results.
What about the better by far GDP numbers?
https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/08/03/covid-sweden-status-2020-08-03/
[url=https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/08/03/covid-sweden-status-2020-08-03/]
[/url]
Sweden all cause deaths for the year look... kinda normal.
[url=https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/08/03/covid-sweden-status-2020-08-03/]
[/url]Sweden all cause deaths for the year look... kinda normal.
I agree they are better, I just think the 7.8X better is not comparing like-to-like numbers.DadHammer said:
What about the better by far GDP numbers?
The US numbers are annualized, while I don't think Sweden's are.
It's think it's more of a -4.6% vs -9.5% as opposed to -4.6% vs -32.9%. Still a significant difference.
Its really hard to compare exactly, I agree. But the results are definitely better without much question
"Now, while still keeping in mind that these data only run to July 29th for 2020, *and* that the last 7-10 days might get slightly revised, it's still reasonable to state that thus far, all cause deaths in Sweden for 2020 Y2D are quite "Normal" nothing extraordinary! "
"It's quite clear from the graph that expected deaths for full year 2020 under the stated assumptions will be well in "normal" range, nothing remarkable, nothing extraordinary, and first and foremost: no cause for panic, disaster and doom & gloom! Despite all the media headlines."
"It's quite clear from the graph that expected deaths for full year 2020 under the stated assumptions will be well in "normal" range, nothing remarkable, nothing extraordinary, and first and foremost: no cause for panic, disaster and doom & gloom! Despite all the media headlines."
Yet to be determined. I could see where employers kept employees on while the govt was paying the bills, but demand destruction due to COVID could lead to layoffs and business closings once the govt checks stop.SirLurksALot said:dragmagpuff said:Be careful drawing conclusions based on unemployment rates in the EU. Most of those countries made strong interventions to prevent that from rising, which cost a lot of government money.DadHammer said:
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Here is the EU as a whole.
It also means that their recovery will occur much quicker. Our decision to push people onto unemployment has lead to a massive increase in permanent job losses. Our decision not to renew the $600 weekly plus up means that most of the Newly unemployed will be taking in about 50% of the income they were pre-covid. This is only going to make the economic situation worse in this country. We will likely end up spending more per capita, because it's going to take us much longer to recover.
Also, part of the issue with the $600 weekly bonus unemployment was people not wanting to go back to work because they were getting more from unemployment. Obviously these were low income jobs to start with.
I have not idea what the better solution is, but I'm pretty sure the US trying a dozen different approaches instead of committing to one was not it.
BiochemAg97 said:Yet to be determined. I could see where employers kept employees on while the govt was paying the bills, but demand destruction due to COVID could lead to layoffs and business closings once the govt checks stop.SirLurksALot said:dragmagpuff said:Be careful drawing conclusions based on unemployment rates in the EU. Most of those countries made strong interventions to prevent that from rising, which cost a lot of government money.DadHammer said:
For Sweden - some economics.
Trading Economics projects a second-quarter GDP change of -4.2 percent (and a third-quarter growth of 2.4 percent). Depending on your preferred method of calculation, we could casually say that's 7.8 times better than what the U.S. saw last quarter.
As of June 18, Statista forecast a 2.6 percent drop in Sweden's employment rate for 2020. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported unemployment in the U.S. shot up 11.2 percentage points from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April, before dropping a bit to 13.3 percent in May and 11.7 percent in June as parts of the economy reopened.
Here is the EU as a whole.
It also means that their recovery will occur much quicker. Our decision to push people onto unemployment has lead to a massive increase in permanent job losses. Our decision not to renew the $600 weekly plus up means that most of the Newly unemployed will be taking in about 50% of the income they were pre-covid. This is only going to make the economic situation worse in this country. We will likely end up spending more per capita, because it's going to take us much longer to recover.
Also, part of the issue with the $600 weekly bonus unemployment was people not wanting to go back to work because they were getting more from unemployment. Obviously these were low income jobs to start with.
I have not idea what the better solution is, but I'm pretty sure the US trying a dozen different approaches instead of committing to one was not it.
The approach most European countries used was to nationalize approximately 80% of payrolls as long as companies kept people employed, and they kept this in place until all the restrictions were lifted. This method helped to both keep people employed and keep businesses opened.
Our approach to stimulus was to push people on to the unemployment system. Forbes estimates up to 42% of all job losses could be permanent. That is obviously going to prolong the recovery as even after the pandemic is over many of the jobs the unemployed had pre-covid no longer exist. The European countries won't have this problem because they choose to use their stimulus to keep people employed.
The $600 was originally given out because existing unemployment systems only pay out an average of 45% of your previous salary. Since consumer spending drives the economy the goal was to replace 100% of previous income. However, the existing state unemployment systems weren't capable of doing that. The $600 dollar amount was chosen to get as many people back to 100% of income. Yes, that means that some people ended up making more than they did previously, but not everyone that lost their job is making more. Removing the $600 isn't going to result in significantly more people going back to work. It's hard to go back to work if nearly half the jobs lost don't exist anymore. The main issue is that our government created this problem when they decided to push people onto the unemployment system. There were better ways to handle it and as we watch the European economies recover faster we will have nobody to blame but ourselves.
fig96 said:So because I said if we'd been responsible all along we'd be in much better shape with case numbers I now think we're all going to die.RandyAg98 said:
You're right. Your virus is going to kill us all. Board up the windows! You watch too much Today Show. Their lead in yesterday was "On The Brink".
And y'all wonder why we can't have intelligent discussions about this.
Out of curiosity when you say "if we'd been responsible" what would you have liked the plan to be? I see vague statements like this or "we should have done better" all the time but never any actual policies offered. At the end of the day we can't stay shut down forever and, as we're learning now, shutdowns seem to just delay the eventual spike anyways.