Beating a dead horse, and ignore me if you like and just "like the entertainment" but I hate to watch people throw away money because of a failure to understand how the game is played.
A monkey flipping a coin is going to hit 50% over the long-term. That means some weeks they may hit 30%, some weeks they may hit 70%. But over time that coin is going to skew towards 50%.
Break even with standard juice is roughly 52.4%.
So knowing these things, how on earth do far more than a small % of people end up losing money? (And I mean really losing money, not how 95% of the people you ask "always win my bets on A&M football!" or the like -- it's a combo of hindsight bias and delusion).
A half-point in college football costs roughly 10 cents. At a -120 line you have to hit 54.5% in order to break-even.
So the difference in flipping a coin and breaking even is 2.4%... And most bettors don't hit that. And the difference in a half-point is 2.1%...
Such a tiny difference in spread renders an already difficult task for bettors damn near impossible over the long-term. Sure in the short-term on an individual game you can overcome it -- just like you can flip a coin and get more tails than heads. But over time the math is always going to win.
So if you want a true edge -- not just a short-term "hope this coin flip goes my way" approach, you should follow these basic tenets:
1) Money management. It's already been discussed in a previous post pretty well -- this happens to be where most gamblers wind up going bust long before they statistically should (because remember, even flipping a coin long-term is going to take a while to even out).
2) Shopping lines. If you're playing only one book, you have to come to grips that you are already decreasing your chances of long-term success significantly (read: you won't win significantly long-term with responsible money management). You tend to think that getting +2 instead of +2.5 "probably won't matter", but again the math is always going to win over time.
3) Don't pay more for points than they are statistically worth. I already went over this in a previous post. But understand if the book is willing to sell you points, there's a reason. If you're needing to buy them to feel better about your wager, ask yourself if there isn't another wager that you would feel more comfortable on other than the one you are needing to "insure" with buying points?
4) Hedges should be used only when $$$ figures reach a point that you are no longer comfortable with the risk and/or you believe a significant factor of the game changed (like a QB is ruled out) and you no longer like the wager. You've got a future bet with a $10k payout and you want to hedge to guarantee yourself $4-5k? That can be justified. But normal every day situations shouldn't be hedged and should be viewed under the lens of "I placed this bet because I liked it, why hedge and give up that value?"
5) If a book is preventing or limiting you from doing something, then understand it's because they know they are vulnerable to it. Betting steam, "golden" totals, etc... If people get kicked off a book, there's a reason why. Sportsbooks like easy marks, and when someone knows what they are doing, sportsbooks no longer want them betting. Low limits? It means the book knows its a soft line (read: they either don't have a whole lot of historical data to back it up and the volume of wagers is low enough they aren't willing to risk that their number isn't right).
6) Dont assume because you are privy to information that "Vegas" already knows it. Our roster situation yesterday was not public betting knowledge until late Friday night to most. But as with all things don't just assume because you've got an edge that the edge will pay out in the small sample size. Also, know that sometimes line moves have nothing to do with the game and everything to do with who has made a bet. There's certain guys that can move a line on their own. Hell, in college hoops there's a guy that can move a line 8 points on his own.
7) Understand that consensus sites aren't giving you true information. "96% of the bets are on Team XYZ". Why on earth would a book feel the need to feed you this information? It's a marketing angle, nothing more. One more thing to see if they can get a square bettor to think they have a little more knowledge and pull the trigger on a wager.
And while this isn't a basic tenet, it's an easy practice I suggest to people who like to play a lot of the board and possibly need to narrow down their selections -- if a line has moved 2-3 points from where it was previously, just cross the bet off your list. If people out there were betting +5.5 and you are now getting +3.5... well... you simply aren't going to overcome that in the long term.