Woke up and saw South Dakota State -4.5. Was gonna smash it.

Got to work two hours later and it was South Dakota State -7. Son of a *****.

I hit on the Islanders and I did a thing with two of the basketball picks - a small parlay bet that won!

Nice work and keep 'em coming!

Stars/Lightning over 6

Vegas -1.5 vs Sharks.

College basketball lines are sharp today. I'll keep digging.

Buffalo Sabres ML vs Vancouver. Both teams playing their backup goalies. Big advantage Buffalo and they're playing at home. Sabres have been ice cold but I like them to bounce back here.

Stars lost but hit the over easily. 5-4

Let's go Knights. I'll take a 2-1 night if we can get there

1-2 night. Sorry fellas. Weird performance by Vegas last night.. but hey, it's a part of the game. Can't profit every night. It's all about profiting long term.

Let's have a big day. I was able to lock in UAB -21.5 against Presbyterian this morning... but it's already moved to -25.

I loved UMass Lowell at -12 but it's already moved to -14. I'll have to look into that more. I mentioned this before, but keep an eye on the Riverhawks. They will be a cash cow until the oddsmakers make adjustments.

American -3 vs William & Mary

Small play. Still trying to get a feel for these bad teams but I do think American is 6-7 points better than W&M.

Miami Ohio +1 at Northern Illinois... MACtion

Alright, here we go. Full card today. This is one of those "hold your nose when you place the bet and just check the score when it's over" cards. I think we have a lot of good value but the games are gross and the lines are a little off based off my projections and what I've seen.

UMass Lowell -13 vs Sacred Heart: I've been saying all week that I'm bullish on the Riverhawks so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. This is a good team that I think will contend for a conference title. Tons of returning production, very well coached and extremely good defensively. I wanted this at -12.5 but I'm okay with it at -13 too. This game is going to stink but let's ride the Riverhawks until the oddsmakers catch up. I see a 15-17 point win.

UAB -21.5 vs Presbyterian: Presbyterian is just awful. Plain and simple. This UAB loves to push the pace and the Blue Hose (what a nickname) don't have the personnel to keep up. This line has moved all the way to -27 in some books. I wouldn't play it at that number, but I do expect this to be close to a 30 point UAB win.

Miami Ohio +1 at Northern Illinois: First of all, this is football.. not basketball. Haha. But I do think the wrong team is favored here. Most of the Redhawks struggles this year have been without starting QB Brett Gabbard. He's back and this is a matchup that strongly favors Miami. Miami will throw the ball behind their experienced QB and NIU is awful at defending it. NIU loves to run, run and run some more and Miami is one of the best teams in the country defending it. Plus, the Redhawks still have bowl eligibility to fight for. The Huskies don't. Take the Redhawks.

American -3 vs William & Mary: I faded W&M for the majority of last year and it got laughable how profitable it was. Well, they aren't any better this year. And even though American is also very bad, they're playing at home and I think they're about 7 points better. I would love to get more into the Xs and Ox here, but this is just a fade on a really bad team on the road. Simple as that.

Delaware State +8.5 at Columbia: My goodness I wanted to vomit while placing this bet.. Delaware State has been one of, if not the worst team in the country for a while. The truth is they returned a lot of minutes and from what I've seen this year, they're much improved. They hung in there with Villanova and I think the confidence and momentum carries over. Columbia is a horrendous basketball team and I would have this closer to Delaware State +2.5. I'm playing the spread to be safe but I wouldn't mind a moneyline sprinkle. The Hornets might be a team to ride until the books catch up.

Clint Capela over 11.5 rebounds (play to -115) vs Celtics: Pretty simple play here. Boston is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and Capela is a rebounding machine. If he can stay out of foul trouble, I think he can get to 13-14 boards in this one.

St Louis Blues/Chicago Blackhawks under 6: I always hate playing unders because it's simply not fun to watch, but this is the right play. The Blackhawks are horrific offensively and play at a snails pace. The Blues are also at the bottom half of the league in almost every offensive category. I think St Louis is due for regression, but I'm not worried about that tonight. I just don't see this going over. A push is possible but I can live with that.

Best of luck to all who are tailing.

Unable to get almost all of the ncaa games…like at all…you must be onto something.

Appreciate it. I'm tailing on the bets I can. None of your college basketball plays are up in my book. No NBA player props yet but they tend to show up later in the day.

If there's an "extras" tab in your book, try looking there. Also recommend having more than one book if possible.

Adding Eastern Michigan +7.5 tonight (football).

What's the scoop on the MACtion games? They've been all over the place with me lately. Every time I feel like I've found a statistical edge, the opposite has happened.

Edit (Whoops - Didn't read the part about Miami OH, guess that leaves the EMU pick. Kent beat the brakes off BGSU contrary to my original belief.)

did you see my post on the prior page?

Are you familiar with [url=https://spankodds.com/][/url]https://spankodds.com/
I assume you're using multiple books & this is a great way to track opening lines & real time updates across books.

Pretty cool to see when syndicates hit a number and the books move past key numbers across the board. Eye opening in that if you're betting with the public you're way too late.

Thanks for the info. I saw it but blanked on responding!

Adding John Collins over 12.5 points vs Boston

Okay….I am tailing your entire card, props and all today except for MALO…couldn't get it.

No pressure lol

Was finally able to add the Capela, Delaware State, and American bets.

Awful down the stretch for UMass Lowell. Missed FTs and several missed point blank layups.

5 goals in 5 minutes in STL/CHI. Unreal.

texasaggie2015 said:

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5 goals in 5 minutes in STL/CHI. Unreal.

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Gotta hope for a scoreless 3rd period to get the push.

I was watching it. That was just a really weird few minutes.

Celtics/Hawks is a blowout. It was a tight spread. Starters will likely barely play in the 4th. Extremely unlucky.

Miami Ohio and Eastern Michigan took care of business for us.

Crap. Just realized that Miami Ohio game is coming to the end of the 3rd quarter and not the 4th. Sorry about that.

Those player props make me sweat too much. Yeeesh.

Net positive for the evening, all that matters!…and while props and nhl let us down tonight, that 5 goals in 5 minutes was just nuts… and one point away on one of the props.

For the weekend, tailing you on everything except UCLA +2.5 and then have added Penn State -19 and Ole Miss -2.5 and Tulane -3.5.

Any thoughts on the additions?

I'll look when I get to the office

Grab Georgia Tech -12 vs Northern Illinois (NCAAB)

Also grab St Thomas +4 at Montana

aggieeducator said:

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For the weekend, tailing you on everything except UCLA +2.5 and then have added Penn State -19 and Ole Miss -2.5 and Tulane -3.5.

Any thoughts on the additions?

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For what it's worth, I think the UCLA loss last week is working in my favor here. I have UCLA favored by one at home.

I actually like the Penn State pick. I have that spread closer to -21.5 so good value there. I may add that one.

I get why you took Ole Miss there and in a perfect world they should be favored by around 5-6 points... but I don't like this spot for them. Coming off an emotional loss against Alabama and with the Egg Bowl next week. Seems like an opportunity for Arkansas to catch them napping and I think the oddsmakers have adjusted the spread accordingly. I'm staying away, but Ole Miss could absolutely cover.

I like the Tulane play. I've been thinking about that one. I like the way the Green Wave defense matches up with the Mustangs offense in what should be a pretty back and forth game... at the end of the day, I like Tulane to create a big turnover or two and win by a possession. I just wish it was -3 and we wouldn't have to worry about the hook. I may end up playing it.

I went back and looked and my college basketball plays have been spot on for the most part this year. Hopefully the oddsmakers take their sweet time adjusting. There was a night a few days ago when I said the lines were sharp and didn't have any college hoops plays.. I had 5 leans that night and they all lost. Which is good because I seem to know when to pull the trigger so far. Those stinky games I played yesterday all hit besides UMass Lowell. American, Delaware State, UAB all came through for us. Not trying to toot my own horn, it's just cool seeing all the work I've put in pay off.

I do think both of the player props were good bets. Nobody saw the blowout coming (Atlanta was a two point underdog) and Capela ended up only playing 16 minutes and had 8 rebounds.. on pace to easily clear the number. Collins ended up with 12 points (we had the over 12.5) and would have exceeded that if the game was closer. That's the risk you take with player props. I would make the same bets today.

For now, go get Georgia Tech -12 and St Thomas +4 (+4.5 in some books) before the lines move. College hoops lines move by the minute. Also VCU -3 vs Pitt. And Colorado -5.5 vs UMass... that's our Daytime Degenerate Workday Play of the Day.

Alright, here we go... here's today's card so far. I may add a couple. Lines may change or may have changed since I played these. If you're unsure if you should still play, feel free to ask here.

Colorado -5.5 vs UMass: It's back... the Daytime Degenerate Workday Play of the Day! But seriously, you never know what to expect in these early season neutral site games... but that being said, I'm pretty confident here. This Colorado team is very good defensively and defense travels. I love the Frank Martin hire for UMass, but with a team full of transfers, the Minutemen will take a while to gel. We caught a glimpse of how good this Colorado team can be when they click after knocking off Tennessee. Normally this would be a letdown spot, but I expect the Buffs to ride the momentum and cover the spread. I think the Buffs win by 8-10 points.

VCU -3 vs Pittsburgh: Both of these teams played yesterday, and logic may indicate that Pittsburgh will have fresher legs coming off a blowout loss. I disagree and think fatigue won't come into play until the third day of a tournament. These are college kids. They're fine. VCU is frankly a much better team than Pitt and this is a nightmare matchup for the Panthers. VCU is year in and year out one of the better defensive teams in the country. Pitt... well, they simply can't score the basketball and have questionable guard play at best. I don't expect either team to light up the scoreboard but I do expect VCU to cover this spread with relative ease. 72-61 sounds right.

Georgia Tech -12 vs Northern Illinois: This is just a classic "don't overthink it" spot for me. Georgia Tech won't contend in the ACC but I have them rated significantly higher than NIU. This should be closer to GT -15.5 or -16 in my opinion.

Winnipeg Jets -1.5 vs Anaheim Ducks: This play is similar to the one above. Puck lines can be scary but I really don't expect the Jets to have any problem with the Ducks in this one. The Jets have a major advantage from an Xs and Os standpoint, and the Ducks are just plain awful on the road and Winnipeg is one of the better home teams in the league. Trust the Jets to take care of business here.

St Thomas +4 at Montana: I actually think the Tommies may win this outright but I'm sticking with the spread to be safe. St Thomas loves to let it fly on offense and their defense is seemingly much improved from last year. Montana has looked horrific this year as they haven't been remotely competitive in their games. This game should come down to the wire and I expect the Tommies to cover the small number.

'Preciate the write up as always! Love the explanations.