I normally wait until later in the week to post my picks but I'm posting these now before they move (I think they will):
Purdue ML (-115) at Syracuse: I have Purdue at about -6.5 on a neutral field, so this should be around Purdue -3 at Syracuse. For those new to betting, money line (ML) means you're picking Purdue to win straight up. Tricky spot going on the road for Purdue but they should win by a field goal or so. Don't overthink this one. Pick the better team.
Western Kentucky +6.5 at Indiana: Indiana's secondary struggled mightily against Idaho last week, and I think WKU has the weapons to expose them and keep this game close the whole way. This is also a lookahead spot for the Hoosiers as they travel to Cincinnati next week. I think the Hilltoppers will be more motivated and they're also coming off a bye...so they should be well rested and ready to go. They should keep this within the number.
Kansas at Houston -9.5: I actually do think Kansas is much improved this year and Lance Leipold has done a fantastic job there. You gotta think it's only a matter of time before a bigger program comes calling. That said, Houston is the much better football team and this number is off. I think this is an overreaction to Kansas' overtime win over West Virginia last week. I have UH as a two touchdown favorite, so I'm trusting my numbers. Clayton Tune should have his way with the Jayhawk secondary and I expect the Coogs to get off to a fast start and never look back. Take Houston here.
Arkansas State at Memphis -14: This is another game where my numbers do not match what the oddsmakers came up with at all. I know this isn't the same caliber Memphis team we've seen over the last 8 years or so, but they're still lightyears ahead of Arkansas State. The Red Wolves just simply suck. Don't put stock into what they did against Grambling.. Grambling is a bad team. And I know they kept it somewhat respectable against Ohio State but we all know the Buckeyes didn't care about that game. My numbers have this at Memphis -20.5 and I think they'll win by at least three touchdowns. Lay the points and ride with the Tigers.
Buffalo at Coastal Carolina -14: I LOVE this spot for Coastal Carolina. Buffalo is off to an 0-2 start this season, and after losing to Holy Cross on a Hail Mary, I highly doubt they'll be motivated on the road in a brutal spot for them. Yes, Coastal Carolina almost suffered an unexplainable loss to Gardner-Webb... but they won the game and I expect them to be desperate to shake it off and make a statement. I often defer to the better coaching staff in spots like this. Coastal Carolina and Jamey Chadwell have the edge there and it's not even close. I expect a 45-17 type game and an easy cover. I think we're seeing a massive overreaction after Coastal's close call last week and this line should be closer to -20.
Kansas at Houston over 57.5: I'm already on Houston -9.5, but I'm jumping on this total too. This Houston offense is legit with senior QB Clayton Tune and one of the best WRs in the country in Nathaniel Dell. The other side of the ball has been a problem for them as they give up 30 PPG. Kansas still stinks but they're improving fast like I mentioned before and the offense is way ahead of their defense. They should be able to get to 21-28 points in this one and I think the Cougar offense will easily get to 40+. 45-24 final score sounds right and this would get us over the total and give us a Houston cover as well. Lock it in.
North Texas +3 at UNLV: Take note that the line is North Texas +2.5 and I'm buying a half point to get to +3 to be safe. I don't have a lot to say about this one, but I strongly believe the wrong team is favored and the market is overreacting to UNLV playing a P5 school (Cal) close last week. This is a great spot to fade them. Not only does Cal stink and you shouldn't put too much stock into the result, but this is a classic letdown spot for a G5 team coming off a hard fought game on the road. North Texas is just the better team and my numbers disagree with the line. I have North Texas as a 6-point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be around UNT -3 or -3.5.
Louisiana Tech +34 at Clemson: Yeah I know, this one made me cringe too but hear me out. Clemson doesn't really blow out teams in non-conference play. They're 1-7 against the spread in September in the last three seasons. They also haven't covered in 6 straight games when favored by 30+. Oh, and they also have a huge game against Wake Forest this week. Will the Tigers lose this game? Absolutely not. But I do think Dabo Swinney wants to come out of this game healthy and ready for conference play and will keep things vanilla. No need to run up the score. Louisiana Tech likes to sling the ball around and will score enough points to keep this within the number. Hell, 45-14 is a win for us. Lock it in.
