It's all good, man. **** happens. Not your fault.

Islanders-Red Wings didn't get close to the over.

Yeah, I should have been more clear that they were leans but I didn't have time today to do a lot of research. I'm sorry again. Might need to take a couple days off.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Yeah, I should have been more clear that they were leans but I didn't have time today to do a lot of research. I'm sorry again. Might need to take a couple days off.

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Nah, man. You made it clear they were just leans and not a lot of time was spent on research. I knew the risks going in. If I wasn't up so huge for the week I wouldn't have played them.

More concerned with Southern Miss down 21 (accidentally bet that one twice) and Oklahoma State down 10-0 at KU.

Arkansas down 21-0 to ****ing Liberty.

Tough Tough Day so far!! Georgia needs to hold on and cover!

I'm 2-0 so far but about to get my first loss. Okie State stinking it up. Took Kstate for my fourth and final bet. At worst I'm out $10 for juice.

Under Tenn - Georgia looking good. Also hammered Tenn under 24.5 big time late in the first quarter.

Marshall & Baylor wins will help mitigate the losses a little. UAB putting up a fight but likely going to fall short.

any choice bets for late games? what's everyone doing on the Bama game?

Know Your Enemy said:

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Marshall & Baylor wins will help mitigate the losses a little. UAB putting up a fight but likely going to fall short.

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And as soon as I post that UAB ties it up with 15 seconds left!

UAB loses in double OT.

****ing ULL blew a 17-0 lead and with the game tied at 17 gave up a TD with 2 seconds left in the game. Had them +4.5.

Empty netter allows the Lightning to cover. At least I ended the day with a win. Hope for a strong NFL Sunday.

Same.

Tip of the hat to @Texasaggie2015 as there is zero chance I come up with a winning scenario in hockey

Texasaggie on soccer and hockey is fire.

I'm sorry fellas

It's a long year. Better weeks ahead.

Bad day. Here's a bad beat story meant for levity at this point as it's just one of those damn things.

So I had a tease that included Bama -7. Never loved it. And the game bore that out. But I was busy trying to get a live bet to off set it with at the time a +1.5. They change the odds, want a new password, change the odds, another hit on the password. The line changes and moves to a Ml. I place it thinking "how often does a 1.5 line come into play?" So flash forward after a surprising amount of back and forth scoring. Bama strikes first in OT. Up 7. Immediately give up a TD. I'm still thinking new set of downs. Nope. F-ers go for two. Ballsy Kelly move. And get it. Now I'm real really really mad that that +1.5 became a ML. Sigh.

Total day wound up being 4-5 including your Marshall, Baylor and Lightning wins.
I was already on OSU (big which huuurt) and Baylor.
Lost Arkie a couple of ways.
Lost Bama a couple of ways
Won FSU
…
Now clearing my head to focus on Sunday. Good luck with your plays.

texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm sorry fellas

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You've got to stop apologizing, man. You've posted way more winners than losers here. No one expects you to be perfect. If I post that I'm pissed about a loss in no way is that aimed at you. Just keep doing your thing.

No apology ever needed texasaggie - you have an awesome overall record and at end of day everyone is responsible for their own picks. To 'know your enemy' point - keep doing your thing!

In a sea of crap amongst the other threads, this one is still gold! Went 10-8 with all my picks yesterday. Half of those losers were absolute head scratchers, but so is ball! Looking forward to next week. I'll even post mine for consideration.

Went 4-0 on my NFL bets with 3 of them being my own picks. All 3 were overs in the Bears-Dolphins game. Each team over for the first half and over for the game. All of those hit early. Only had a slight sweat of the Jets-Bills under which I tailed our guru on. Helluva week. If I hadn't accidentally bet Southern Miss twice I'd be over $400 for the week on nothing but $25 bets.

Added an NBA bet for tonight. Over 12.5 rebounds (+115) for Nikola Vucevic of the Bulls. Raptors don't have any size to match up with him and the Bulls backup center Andre Drummond is out so Vooch will have to play more. Had 12, 13, and 15 in the last 3 games since Drummond has been out.

Beating a dead horse, and ignore me if you like and just "like the entertainment" but I hate to watch people throw away money because of a failure to understand how the game is played.

A monkey flipping a coin is going to hit 50% over the long-term. That means some weeks they may hit 30%, some weeks they may hit 70%. But over time that coin is going to skew towards 50%.

Break even with standard juice is roughly 52.4%.

So knowing these things, how on earth do far more than a small % of people end up losing money? (And I mean really losing money, not how 95% of the people you ask "always win my bets on A&M football!" or the like -- it's a combo of hindsight bias and delusion).

A half-point in college football costs roughly 10 cents. At a -120 line you have to hit 54.5% in order to break-even.

So the difference in flipping a coin and breaking even is 2.4%... And most bettors don't hit that. And the difference in a half-point is 2.1%...

Such a tiny difference in spread renders an already difficult task for bettors damn near impossible over the long-term. Sure in the short-term on an individual game you can overcome it -- just like you can flip a coin and get more tails than heads. But over time the math is always going to win.

So if you want a true edge -- not just a short-term "hope this coin flip goes my way" approach, you should follow these basic tenets:

1) Money management. It's already been discussed in a previous post pretty well -- this happens to be where most gamblers wind up going bust long before they statistically should (because remember, even flipping a coin long-term is going to take a while to even out).

2) Shopping lines. If you're playing only one book, you have to come to grips that you are already decreasing your chances of long-term success significantly (read: you won't win significantly long-term with responsible money management). You tend to think that getting +2 instead of +2.5 "probably won't matter", but again the math is always going to win over time.

3) Don't pay more for points than they are statistically worth. I already went over this in a previous post. But understand if the book is willing to sell you points, there's a reason. If you're needing to buy them to feel better about your wager, ask yourself if there isn't another wager that you would feel more comfortable on other than the one you are needing to "insure" with buying points?

4) Hedges should be used only when $$$ figures reach a point that you are no longer comfortable with the risk and/or you believe a significant factor of the game changed (like a QB is ruled out) and you no longer like the wager. You've got a future bet with a $10k payout and you want to hedge to guarantee yourself $4-5k? That can be justified. But normal every day situations shouldn't be hedged and should be viewed under the lens of "I placed this bet because I liked it, why hedge and give up that value?"

5) If a book is preventing or limiting you from doing something, then understand it's because they know they are vulnerable to it. Betting steam, "golden" totals, etc... If people get kicked off a book, there's a reason why. Sportsbooks like easy marks, and when someone knows what they are doing, sportsbooks no longer want them betting. Low limits? It means the book knows its a soft line (read: they either don't have a whole lot of historical data to back it up and the volume of wagers is low enough they aren't willing to risk that their number isn't right).

6) Dont assume because you are privy to information that "Vegas" already knows it. Our roster situation yesterday was not public betting knowledge until late Friday night to most. But as with all things don't just assume because you've got an edge that the edge will pay out in the small sample size. Also, know that sometimes line moves have nothing to do with the game and everything to do with who has made a bet. There's certain guys that can move a line on their own. Hell, in college hoops there's a guy that can move a line 8 points on his own.

7) Understand that consensus sites aren't giving you true information. "96% of the bets are on Team XYZ". Why on earth would a book feel the need to feed you this information? It's a marketing angle, nothing more. One more thing to see if they can get a square bettor to think they have a little more knowledge and pull the trigger on a wager.


And while this isn't a basic tenet, it's an easy practice I suggest to people who like to play a lot of the board and possibly need to narrow down their selections -- if a line has moved 2-3 points from where it was previously, just cross the bet off your list. If people out there were betting +5.5 and you are now getting +3.5... well... you simply aren't going to overcome that in the long term.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Yeah, I should have been more clear that they were leans but I didn't have time today to do a lot of research. I'm sorry again. Might need to take a couple days off.

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Don't leave!! Us degenerates need our work day bets!!!

Know Your Enemy said:

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Added an NBA bet for tonight. Over 12.5 rebounds (+115) for Nikola Vucevic of the Bulls. Raptors don't have any size to match up with him and the Bulls backup center Andre Drummond is out so Vooch will have to play more. Had 12, 13, and 15 in the last 3 games since Drummond has been out.

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This one pissed me off. He had 6 rebounds in the first quarter and ended with 12. He played lazy a lot and spent too much time on offense hanging outside the 3-point line when he had a significant size advantage. Still think it was a good wager, just didn't work out this time.

Didn't have time today to post here but those who follow my Action profile saw I had Pacific +16 at Stanford and hit with ease. I also have Islanders/Flames over 6.

Hmm…I didn't get the usual notifications on those.

I've got Ravens 1H and game at -1.5. Half unit each... Ravens come out blazing and drop their leads. Thinking they're more than the Saints tonight.

MACtion for the Week: Ohio -2 and BGSU ML... Have a couple others I'm looking at as well.

Unfortunately I tailed you on Penn. Getting drilled by Iona. Lol.

Sorry for going off the grid for a few days. Had a lot of things going on I needed to focus on before getting back in the groove. I'll have a few bonus plays today and take my first look at the CFB slate.

Let's have another profitable week.

First CFB play of the weekend: Cincinnati -5 vs ECU. I have this closer to Cincinnati -9.5.

Wow, lots of super sharp lines this week. This is brutal. I'll keep digging.