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***2022 College Football Betting Thread***

95,722 Views | 1583 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by texasaggie2015
texasaggie2015
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11:04a, 10/20/22
AG
West Virginia +7 at Texas Tech

If you have 6.5 and need to buy a point, I think it's worth it. Super windy conditions in Lubbock on Saturday and WV has the better rushing attack. This should be a one score game the whole way.

Maryland -14 vs Northwestern

Everything I'm looking at tells me this game won't be close. Northwestern has a tendency to make games ugly and stay within reach, but I don't see it here. My numbers have this Maryland -17.5.

Also, this is probably my least confident week to date. Oddsmakers did well across the board but there's still value to be found... just not as much as previous weeks. Adjust your bets accordingly.
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Know Your Enemy
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:19a, 10/20/22
AG
Weird. My book doesn't have either of those games listed.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Know Your Enemy • 11:33a, 10/20/22
AG
That's very weird. My book has WV listed but I don't see it on Bovada.

Another bonus play to make up for my late posts: Aston Villa (either ML or draw no bet) vs Fulham. Whatever you're more comfortable with and whether you're feeling aggressive.

Moneyline meaning Aston Villa to win straight up. Draw no bet means if Aston Villa wins, you win. But if the game is a draw your bet is a wash. Your book may have draw no bet as "PK". Obviously there will be heavier juice on the draw no bet.

Personally, I'm playing it safe and taking the draw no bet... but if you wanna roll the dice a bit I don't blame you. The game is at 1:30pm this afternoon. Let's have some workday degenerate fun.
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jmedge05
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 12:04p, 10/20/22
AG
I know nothing about the EPL but why not make a boring workday a little more interesting. Tailing you all the way to a very small bank.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to jmedge05 • 12:06p, 10/20/22
AG
I love it
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Know Your Enemy
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12:26p, 10/20/22
AG
**** it. I took Aston Villa to win, baby.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Know Your Enemy • 1:58p, 10/20/22
AG
Love it. Fulham dominating so far but hopefully Aston Villa adjusts.
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Know Your Enemy
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2:57p, 10/20/22
AG
Excuse me, sir. WTF is happening right now??????????
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Know Your Enemy • 2:59p, 10/20/22
AG
Stupid, stupid red card certainly doesn't help... oh well, we'll win it back.
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jmedge05
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 3:49p, 10/20/22
AG
Yes we will. I swear I'm the world's greatest cooler. Vegas needs to hire me to place bets on sure winners. I'll turn a sure win into a sure defeat simply by looking at the line.

****tongue in cheek, I've had a rough week so far.****
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Know Your Enemy
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In reply to jmedge05 • 6:53p, 10/20/22
AG
You even cost this guy his job! Lol.

http://www.espnfc.com/aston-villa-engaston_villa/story/4774140/steven-gerrard-out-as-aston-villa-manager-after-3-0-defeat-to-fulham
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Know Your Enemy • 7:06p, 10/20/22
AG
That's actually really funny
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jmedge05
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In reply to Know Your Enemy • 6:31a, 10/21/22
AG
Know Your Enemy said:
You even cost this guy his job! Lol.

http://www.espnfc.com/aston-villa-engaston_villa/story/4774140/steven-gerrard-out-as-aston-villa-manager-after-3-0-defeat-to-fulham


And I feel bad about that ….. but how do you lose 3-0 to Fulham!?!
****insert Tuttle chair throwing meme******
(I know nothing about the EPL, but a name like that should lose)
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texasaggie2015
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8:21a, 10/21/22
AG
UCLA +6 at Oregon (now +6.5.. didn't expect this)
Clemson -13 vs Syracuse (now -13.5)
Duke/Miami under 59.5 (now 58)
UTEP +4 vs FAU (now +3.5)
Arkansas State/ULL under 51.5 (still 51.5)
Boise State/Air Force under 48.5 (now 47.5)
Maryland -14 vs Northwestern (still -14)
West Virginia +7 at Texas Tech (now +6)
Houston -3 at Navy

- Looks like we made some good bets early in the week based on how 5 of the above lines have moved.

- Keeping a very close eye on the Spencer Sanders situation in Stillwater. If he's good to go, I expect that spread to move considerably before kickoff. I'm just not comfortable playing it right now with limited knowledge of their backup.

- Strongly leaning towards Purdue +2.5 against Wisconsin. Going to dig more into it.
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Proposition Joe
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10:21a, 10/21/22
Don't buy points in college football.
Don't buy points in college football.
Don't buy points in college football.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 10:22a, 10/21/22
AG
I've been doing this a long time. There are certainly situations where buying points can be the right move. To each his own though.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 10:34a, 10/21/22
texasaggie2015 said:
I've been doing this a long time. There are certainly situations where buying points can be the right move. To each his own though.

I'm sure there's gamblers that swear by a lucky coin also.

Buying points in college football is a losing proposition. There is negative value in it. There's decades worth of data that show this.

If you need to decrease value on your wager by buying a half a point to feel more comfortable, then it's a game that you didn't feel comfortable enough with in the first place.

To each their own on gambling strategies. I'm just speaking towards the math. Taking -130 odds on a coin flip might wind up being profitable for plenty of people, that doesn't make it a smart move.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 10:58a, 10/21/22
AG
Quote:
To each their own on gambling strategies.
And mine has hit at a 56% rate over the last three years. I'll stick with mine. Like we both said, to each their own!
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aggieeducator
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:54a, 10/21/22
AG
You are both right. But as far as this chain is concerned, texasaggie2015 runs the show, so coin flip goes to him. Not saying your math is wrong prop joe, just saying the guy has been a gift horse to just about everyone on the chain…and as the saying goes, I don't look gift horses in the mouth.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 2:05p, 10/21/22
texasaggie2015 said:
Quote:
To each their own on gambling strategies.
And mine has hit at a 56% rate over the last three years. I'll stick with mine. Like we both said, to each their own!

Don't take my comments as implying you don't know how to handicap a team or pick winners. I haven't followed the thread that closely.

But when it comes to lines, value and understanding how the books operate, I learned from and worked with the very best. So take it as a way to possibly turn yourself from a really great handicapper hitting over 56% to a really great handicapper hitting over 57%.
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texasaggie2015
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2:18p, 10/21/22
AG
Some bonus NBA picks. Small plays on each, probably a half unit. The season just got started so we're still getting a read:

Minnesota -8 at Utah
Toronto +2.5 at Brooklyn
New Orleans -6.5 at Charlotte
Bam Adebayo over 15.5 points vs Boston
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 2:21p, 10/21/22
AG
No problem sir, you're absolutely welcome to share your opinion and thoughts.

I also want to remind everyone that even the best handicappers will go through cold streaks. We've been on fire with CFB and I don't anticipate that to end this week... but when it does, bear with me and we will right the ship.
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Know Your Enemy
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 2:30p, 10/21/22
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Some bonus NBA picks. Small plays on each, probably a half unit. The season just got started so we're still getting a read:

Minnesota -8 at Utah
Toronto +2.5 at Brooklyn
New Orleans -6.5 at Charlotte
Bam Adebayo over 15.5 points vs Boston
Bam was straight TRASH Wednesday night against the Bulls. Even missed an easy dunk. He's got to have a bounce back game and with Robert Williams out he should be able to hit that over.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Know Your Enemy • 3:03p, 10/21/22
AG
You read my mind sir
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Know Your Enemy
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3:09p, 10/21/22
AG
Damn. My book doesn't have that one either.
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Know Your Enemy
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12:10a, 10/22/22
AG
Ugh, forgot I took your lead on the Rangers last night and they lost in OT. But I went on my own and took over 28.5 for DeMar DeRozan tonight and he went for 32. Need a big Saturday.
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hoosier-daddy
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12:14a, 10/22/22
Sports gambling is illegal in Texas. Hopefully Beto will crack down on you lawbreaking sinners. Staff should be ashamed for allowing this blatant illegal thread to continue.
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Know Your Enemy
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In reply to hoosier-daddy • 12:34a, 10/22/22
AG
Who said any of us are in Texas?
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texasaggie2015
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11:26a, 10/22/22
AG
Added Houston -3 right before kickoff.
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hoosier-daddy
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11:41a, 10/22/22
W Georgia St/App St O58.5
W Georgia Tech/ Virginia U13.5 1q
W Georgia Tech/ Virginia U13.5 1q
W Temple +14 v Tulsa
L UAB +1.5 v WKU
11 Houston/Navy O51
11 Syracuse +13.5 v Clemson
11 Iowa +29 v Ohio St
11 Army -6.5 v ULaMon
11 Kansas +10 v Baylor
11:30 Miami -8 v Duke
12 BG/C Michigan O50.5
12 Buffalo +7.5 v Toledo
1 N Illinois -2.5 v Ohio
2:30 Northwestern +14 v Maryland
2:30 Memphis +7 v Tulane
2:30 Memphis/Tulane O56.5
2:30 Memphis/Tulane O56.5
2:30 Wake Forest -20.5 v BC
2:30 BYU -6.5 v Liberty
2:30 Texas/Oklahoma St U60.5
3:00 Colorado St -5.5 v Hawaii
6 Boise St +3.5 v Air Force
6:30 UCF -5 v E Carolina
6:30 UCF/E Carolina Ui64
6:30 TAMU -3 v South Carolina

Sean Brady/Muhammad 36/25
Fiorot/Chookagain 54.35/25
Dillashaw v Sterling 25/37.25
Charles Oliveira/Islam Makhachev 31.12/50
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texasaggie2015
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12:32p, 10/22/22
AG
Wow. I'll have to make a big adjustment on Syracuse moving forward. Sorry everyone.
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texasaggie2015
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2:23p, 10/22/22
AG
Maryland's QB is out. Gotta be kidding me.
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jmedge05
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 3:47p, 10/22/22
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Wow. I'll have to make a big adjustment on Syracuse moving forward. Sorry everyone.


Look keep doing good things. No need for apologies. I did not tail you on that one, so it wasn't my fault.
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Know Your Enemy
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4:52p, 10/22/22
AG
Not a good start at all today.
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hoosier-daddy
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6:08p, 10/22/22
missed posting these

6:30 TAMU/South Carolina U45
7 Kansas St +4 v TCU
7 Pitt +2.5 v Louisville


1-3 ufc. bleh
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