Prosperdick said:
SpreadsheetAg said:
Question:
Aren't early votes just transferring the date that a voter submits from Day-of to Earlier? So the net gain is technically Zero?
I understand that this shows eagerness and velocity of the parties (i.e. enthusiasm), and that's encouraging for the GOP / Trump in terms of where this was at versus 2020. But unless this also translates to MORE votes for the GOP... how is the data that helpful?
Also, does early voting also not give fraudsters (if you believe they exist) more data to know how much to cheat by earlier in the process?
2020 was an outlier due to two main reasons: the tremendous amount of MIB's and people afraid to stand close to each other in long lines. That drove a lot of the early voting tallies.
R's are matching those tallies with a lot of low propensity voters and those who have never voted before so it means the R's who normally vote on ED are still voting on ED but Dems are underperforming by a LOT and the ones who ARE voting early are more high propensity voters so they are more likely cannibalizing the vote than Republicans.
Also, to your last point, with millions of fewer MIB's means fewer ballots to harvest. If R's have a huge lead tomorrow night there aren't as many ballots left to chase.
Something else to realize also is that a voter who has voted in the last 4 elections is much more likely to eventually vote and is very easy to convince to go to the polls. A voter who has voted in 0 or 1 of the last 4 elections takes significantly more effort (phone calls, texts, door knocking, transportation, etc.) to get to the polls.
The Rs (through the efforts of guys like Scott Presler in PA and Turning Point USA in AZ) have gotten a lot of 0 and 1 voters to vote early via mail in or in person EV and have a lot of 3s and 4s who have not yet voted. The Ds have seen fewer 0s and 1s and their EV numbers took up more of their 3s and 4s. So IF they are going to try to get the increase in turnout to happen on election day that they need, the Ds are going to have to do it by getting a large number of 0s and 1s to go to the polls and wait in line to vote. I have seen no sign of the Ds having the kind of ground game this cycle that would be necessary to make that happen.
