At this point, it's all coming down to the independents and how they end up voting this time around. Though I guess that's true for every election.

The only rhetoric the Dems have at this point is that the Indy vote is going to break for Harris.

That will be true in places like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia. and Michigan. I'm... not sure looking at these early voting numbers if that's true everywhere. I think the bigger question is how much election DAY vote the GOP early vote is cannibalizing. If the GOP maintains their traditional lead in ED voting Trump gets to 270. Maybe a LOT higher based on these numbers.

That's my concern as well. Are these leads in early voting, just a result of folks who would normally vote election day, deciding to early vote? If so, a lot of the election day "jumps" we used to see for republicans, may no show up.

dtkprowler said:

---

That's my concern as well. Are these leads in early voting, just a result of folks who would normally vote election day, deciding to early vote? If so, a lot of the election day "jumps" we used to see for republicans, may no show up.

---

Certainly a concern....but also certainly better than the alternative of repetition of previous cycles being down a million votes going into election day in PA. I'd rather worry from ahead.

LuoJi said:

---

Any data suggest that Rs are not just pulling votes forward?

---

it's just that though.....the dem voter numbers are also way down compared to 2020 in a lot of areas....

so even if the R voter turnouts were exactly in line with what happened in 2020 we would still be in a better place current to date for this election cycle....

still aint over but it seems to be looking good.

🚨 BREAKING: New map reveals where Trump is improving so far in Pennsylvania mail-in voting from 2020.

The ENTIRE MAP is shaded red - he’s gaining everywhere. pic.twitter.com/Kx8TnR8DbG

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 28, 2024

Nevada vote update:

6K in mail loaded overnight in Clark: Dems+1.3K

GOP statewide lead: 32K, just under 5 percent

More later on the blog.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 28, 2024

I think the new republican ground game is getting people out to vote who have not voted in a long time. If we could do this consistently, the dems would be a minority dying party.

Concern... yes. But, in most areas where we have good models of the people voting GOP has been turning out a significant number of of 0, 1 and 2 quadrant voters.

Normally, when you're modeling targeted turn out you have zero history/new registration voters (0) and then your active voters are divided up by how often they vote in Federal Elections (1,2,3, and 4). Good campaigns also identify those that vote in the last 2 elections (2a), just the Presidential (2b) and those that are scattered (2c). Obviously the need for that depends on year, office being run for, etc.

The upshot is that again the GOP is seeing significant turnout gains in the lower quadrant voters (0,1, and 2) and still has quite a bit of room left in there AND the higher quadrants. That means you can spend fewer resources on the high quadrant people (sending a text message, etc) and more resources like door knocking, ballot harvesters, etc for the people lower in the quadrant closer to election day.

GOP voters need to keep up the enthusiasm and keep voting but so far it looks good. I'm cautiously optimistic. The scary trends for the Dems revolve around significantly lower black turnout and the polling and indications that Trump is making significant inroads in Latinos (overall, but especially male) and Black males (especially young Black males).

IF Kamala loses AND hemorrhaged black turnout there will be a significant conversation, behind the scenes anyway, about how her Jerk routine can't be repeated.

"I grew up a poor middle class Black child." Doesn't work with everyone.

That's because the GOP now finally has good leadership, not Romney clan moron(s) running it.

These numbers would be R winning numbers in VA, if they hold.

In my reference sheet for election night for VA I had Rs needing to get these numbers or better in these NOVA areas:

Alexandria: 19%
Arlington: 19%
Fairfax County: 30%
Loudoun: 38%
Prince William County: 37% https://t.co/hCuoaLaPlN

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 28, 2024

Conservatively, R lead would end up ~40k or so. In 2020, it was a D lead of 53k on E-eve that gave Biden a win of 33.6k votes. Don't hope indies will come to rescue Kamala. They won't. Trump wins NV easily this year. Trump +3 to 5 pts

2/End

— au ng (@athein1) October 28, 2024

MagnumLoad said:

---

I think the new republican ground game is getting people out to vote who have not voted in a long time. If we could do this consistently, the dems would be a minority dying party.

---

I was listening to a pollster talk about what Daugherty is tweeting about above your post.

Essentially the rural voters, with years of losing to majority Blue cities, have depressed their vote because why should you vote in "Fairville, IL" if Chicago's vote determines everything? Essentially the rurals and suburbans are activating because the stakes are too high (as are the prices) and Trump is a populist candidate. After the assassination attempts they recognize that Dems are playing for blood. With rural getting more internets they are on social media more, they see immigrant murders, alphabet people pushing sterilization, they see "dead yt baby, lolz" from black supremacists, the target that was on Trump is on them.

They can't sit idle or half assing anymore.

Republicans made another huge gain in registrations in Pennsylvania. Registration is now closed there.

🚨 BREAKING: LAST-MINUTE PENNSYLVANIA GOP SURGE in voter registration for the last week.

🔴 REP: +36,507
🔵 DEM: +19,744

Per @UPTGOP, these are *backlogged* registrations.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 28, 2024

I think it's not really the GOP early vote, it's that Democrats are not turning out, especially black voters, at the rate they need. And that even ignores the surge with black males Trump has. Georgia and NC in particular back this up. Also, Dems are on a path to cannibalize their (losing) Election Day vote, as usual:

#NCEV update 10/28 am. R lead has further dipped to 23.7k, a Sunday souls-to-the-polls effect (was D lead by 330k in 2020). If the weekday trend from last week continues, Rs should have ~70k lead by 11/2. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC. pic.twitter.com/fvJlUJY905

— au ng (@athein1) October 28, 2024

Something kind of lovely just happened on the @2way morning meeting with @MarkHalperin @danturrentine and @seanspicer:

When asked what they'll do if their side loses:

The Trump supporter said she'll "be nervous but hopeful."

The Harris supporter said he's been "making a list…

— Erika Sanzi (@esanzi) October 28, 2024

#NVEV @RalstonReports has now waved the white flag on behalf of the Dems and coming from him, this is significant. Trump is gonna win NV. Senate seat and some House seats are in play! Go NV. Fight Fight Fight! Vote Vote Vote! https://t.co/BGYAHpQAIr

— au ng (@athein1) October 28, 2024

I have BRS. I want to be hopeful, but I do not trust polls any more.

Arizona Early Vote Update:

2024:
🔴 581k (+99k)
🔵 482k
🟡 322k

Total: 1.39 M

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 28, 2024

Arizona update. Even if you gave Harris a 6% win with independents, which I think is overly optimistic for her, Trump should be currently up 53-47 among those that have voted so far in Arizona. There is no indication that either Trump or Harris will pull a lot of voters from the other party.

Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.

Centre County has the largest university in Pennsylvania and one of the largest universities in the entire country

we are almost flipping it Republican.

I was up in Gettysburg yesterday with my Trump signs and stickers driving around. Pedal to the floor!

WHAT IN THE WORLD!

We are 979 voters away from flipping Centre County 🔵🔜🔴.

Centre County is home to Penn State University’s largest campus.

Something is happening.

This is historic.

— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 28, 2024

Anecdotal but interesting. Fulton County, GA.

Wowza. Biden won this county by ~3600 votes in 2020 but Trump on election day by 15000. That would be a massive turn around if Trump wins this by 10k votes. Would be an earthquake.

tremble said:

---

Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.

---

Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.

Over 42 million people have voted so far. Democrats are worried about Nevada and Florida increasingly looks unwinnable for Harris. But what's notable is Harris's early vote compared to Biden in blue states. It's a warning sign. https://t.co/PKAFtQ3CPK

— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) October 28, 2024

True.

I know very little about her except for that guy that used to name drop her here. But it's clear the people of AZ are not necessarily enamored with her and have not been in her prior statewide attempts.

sanangelo said:

---

tremble said:

---

Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.

---

Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.

---

I don't think it's about Lake as much is it that Trump outpolls ALL the other Republicans on the ballot by 2 (or more) points... and I would suspect in most states with a Senate race it will play out like that too. If Trump can win states by 2-3 points he probably drags the Senate candidates across the finish line with him.

The difference between Trump and other Republicans is the byproduct of realignment, and is mainly coming from independents, Democrats, and former Democrats voting for Trump, who just aren't comfortable with voting for other Republicans down ballot yet.

sanangelo said:

---

tremble said:

---

Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.

---

Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.

---

If she keeps losing she's a bad candidate

Which a long way of saying Trump has coattails whereas Kamala does not. Just the opposite, in fact.

LMCane said:

---

Centre County has the largest university in Pennsylvania and one of the largest universities in the entire country

we are almost flipping it Republican.

I was up in Gettysburg yesterday with my Trump signs and stickers driving around. Pedal to the floor!

WHAT IN THE WORLD!

We are 979 voters away from flipping Centre County 🔵🔜🔴.

Centre County is home to Penn State University’s largest campus.

Something is happening.

This is historic.

— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 28, 2024

---

Heard these same things in 2020 too, only for it all to fall apart on election night. Don't get excited.

Maroon Elephant said:

---

I live in deep red Northeast Tarrant County and I've never seen voting lines like I have this year. I was finally able to get into the parking lot at my closest polling location today but still had a 45 minute wait. I take that as a good sign.

---

and in Montgomery County Maryland a very blue part of a blue state-

went the first morning for early voting, parked in the back, walked in with no line, voted with no line.

the most cool guy said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Centre County has the largest university in Pennsylvania and one of the largest universities in the entire country

we are almost flipping it Republican.

I was up in Gettysburg yesterday with my Trump signs and stickers driving around. Pedal to the floor!

WHAT IN THE WORLD!

We are 979 voters away from flipping Centre County 🔵🔜🔴.

Centre County is home to Penn State University’s largest campus.

Something is happening.

This is historic.

— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 28, 2024

---

Heard these same things in 2020 too, only for it all to fall apart on election night. Don't get excited.

---

Are you just telling us your personal opinion-

or you actually have hard data that this is exactly the same thing that occurred in 2020 regarding Centre County?

dtkprowler said:

---

That's my concern as well. Are these leads in early voting, just a result of folks who would normally vote election day, deciding to early vote? If so, a lot of the election day "jumps" we used to see for republicans, may no show up.

---

I voted early, but I always vote early.

the most cool guy said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Centre County has the largest university in Pennsylvania and one of the largest universities in the entire country

we are almost flipping it Republican.

I was up in Gettysburg yesterday with my Trump signs and stickers driving around. Pedal to the floor!

WHAT IN THE WORLD!

We are 979 voters away from flipping Centre County 🔵🔜🔴.

Centre County is home to Penn State University’s largest campus.

Something is happening.

This is historic.

— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 28, 2024

---

Heard these same things in 2020 too, only for it all to fall apart on election night. Don't get excited.

---

Data or just things that you heard?

GAC06 said:

---

sanangelo said:

---

tremble said:

---

Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.

---

Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.

---

If she keeps losing she's a bad candidate

---

The sheriff that ran against Lake in the primary would be winning right now IMO.

I have never heard anyone discuss this issue before--

what happens if all the pollsters of Pennsylvania are believing that the Democrats had a 350,000 registered voter advantage on election day.

when the reality is that the democrats only have a 127,000 registered voter advantage on election day?

wouldn't that cause a small error in the polling?

Pennsylvania News

A week ago, democrats had an advantage of 297,824 voter registrations.

Today, that lead has been narrowed to 281,091.

-16,733

🔵 gained 19,774 voters, while 🔴 gained 36,507 voters.

If you take out inactive voters, 🔵 - 🔴 = 117,268.

A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE

— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 28, 2024

Changes the size of the firewall in the states that Dems think they had.

been away all weekend. we still feeling good?