***Official Early Vote Tracking***

243,305 Views | 1696 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by IDaggie06
aggiehawg
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3:30p, 9/25/24
AG
Ned Ryan makes a good point about chasing ballots and the costs involved. (Starts at 38 minutes.)

It costs money for reminding people to send in their ballots and until you do, you will be on a list for reach out. So the earlier you return your ballot or vote during early voting, the quicker you are off of the list and that saves money. The first few texts could cost like 12$ but waiting until election day could easily raise those costs to $100 per voter. So for the GOTV costs, vote as early as you can.

Very interesting discussion.

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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:34p, 9/25/24
AG
Basically what Todd pressler has been saying. When it's broken down from a cost benefit view it's amazing it took the gop so long to adjust.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:37p, 9/25/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Basically what Todd pressler has been saying. When it's broken down from a cost benefit view it's amazing it took the gop so long to adjust.
I just had never thought about that before, then againI have been off of the GOP radar screen (as a party) for several years now so I don't get bothered by that kind of outreach much anymore.
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will25u
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5:56p, 9/25/24
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will25u
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3:04p, 9/26/24
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IDaggie06
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3:13p, 9/26/24
AG
This is a fun thread and I remember going down this rabbit hole in 2020 of monitoring early voting, gaps needed, etc .... But unfortunately none of it mattered and gave a false sense of hope when in the middle of the night of the election the magical Biden spike happend in a few states (Wisconsin, etc).

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dirtylondrie712
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 3:35p, 9/26/24
AG
They changed all the rules in 2020 and the absolute number of total votes exploded. Most of those rules are no longer in place, so these early voting numbers seem more important this cycle than last.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to will25u • 3:40p, 9/26/24
AG
I wonder what numbers of those low propensity voters are being recorded. How does he know this, by the way?
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Captn_Ag05
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5:09p, 9/26/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:11p, 9/26/24
AG
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TheBonifaceOption
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5:24p, 9/26/24
It's gonna be funny if Virginia gets called in September
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nortex97
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6:53a, 9/27/24
AG
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:16a, 9/27/24
AG
Most important line on the voter registration changes is Pennsylvania.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:23a, 9/27/24
Waffledynamics said:
I wonder what numbers of those low propensity voters are being recorded. How does he know this, by the way?

They probably ask in the poll who did you vote for in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020. Obviously people under 30 will be at most 2 out of 4.
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sam callahan
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7:24a, 9/27/24
I won't believe Virginia goes red until I see Jake Tapper in the fetal position banging his head on the floor singing my Old Virginia Home.

As Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

VA is overrun with people living off the fat hog of the federal government and they aren't going to do anything that would put that in jeopardy.

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nortex97
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:30a, 9/27/24
AG
Absolutely true as far as the significance of PA in this election, but overall I am long term heartened by their net losses in places like New Jersey, Delaware and other 'true blue' areas as it could/should be a reflection of both their national and state-local level leadership impacting the remaining residents over time to move away from the Dem voter/thought plantation.

Keep in mind, the GOP basically has zero real messaging/media/leadership in many of those states, and there is little legal migration to them, as well, which is what makes me think this is real decay on their side.
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nortex97
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8:56a, 9/27/24
AG
Reasons for optimism abound in the numbers:
Quote:
It wasn't until George W. Bush's reelection campaign of 2004 when the country achieved registration parity between the two parties, tied at 47%. Democrats opened up a lead again with the Barack Obama era, and continued holding that advantage in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, although the margin had narrowed significantly. Democrats led Republicans, 46-43 in party ID, which translated to a 2.1% popular vote victory by Hillary over Donald Trump. She got thumped in the Electoral College.

In 2020, Joe Biden's party ID advantage swelled to 48-43. He won the popular vote by 4.5%, and eked out a very narrow Electoral College victory. The bottom line? Democrats have never led Republicans on party ID in front of a presidential election by less than 3 points going back to 2004. It's the end of September, 2024, and Republicans currently hold a three-point advantage of their own over Democrats in party registration, a net 6-point shift in four years.

That's the macro. The micro is just as telling. In Arizona a couple days ago, New York Times/Siena released a series of Battleground results, and showed Donald Trump opening up a 5-point lead in the Grand Canyon State, outside of the margin of error. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth ensued amongst the left, trying to poke holes in the methodology of the poll. They complained because they believe it oversampled Republicans. Nate Cohn has the details both from 2020 and now.


Turnout matters, no doubt, but it's nice to start with a lead, finally.
Quote:
In Pennsylvania, going again from micro to macro, Republicans statewide have lost 1,466 registered voters in the last four years. That's bad. Democrats have lost 329,289 registered voters in the same period of time. That's not just worse, that's catastrophic.

I'll give you two more examples from states that won't necessarily be in play this time, but do bring into focus the Republican El Nino effect I'm talking about in this column.

In New York, a state that has seen their population decline since the last Census, costing them a House seat in Congress, Republicans currently have just under 50,000 fewer voters on their rolls than they did in 2020. Compare that to the Democrats, who have over 410,000 fewer voters on their rolls.
More at the link.
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dirtylondrie712
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:50a, 9/27/24
AG
How do you lose registered voters?? Does that mean those people either moved out of the state or their registration expired and they didn't renew??
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nortex97
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In reply to dirtylondrie712 • 10:03a, 9/27/24
AG
Yes, or they changed their party affiliation. A lot of states I think make the choice basically part of the drivers license renewal process.

Even relatively recently (as in, within the past 10 years) in red states like Oklahoma in small towns you basically had to be a registered Democrat to participate in real primaries etc. in smaller towns. This is something that only changes over time, in significant ways, is my point/understanding. For instance (another example), if I wanted to personally impact who might win the Dallas County commissioners court (or Harris County), and could stomach the guilt of associating with the Democrat party, often one would have to register as a Democrat to vote in their primary. That doesn't change quickly.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:06a, 9/27/24
AG
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nortex97
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12:22p, 9/27/24
AG
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dirtylondrie712
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:17p, 9/27/24
AG
But isn't your scenario actually bad news? What if a bunch of Pennsylvania dems registered as republicans so they could vote against Trump in the primary? I hope that's not why registration is up for Republicans.
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nortex97
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In reply to dirtylondrie712 • 2:20p, 9/27/24
AG
Almost definitely not. Trump won the PA primary with over 80 percent of the vote, after he had the nomination sealed up, in July. Plus, it would fly in the face of all the registration data from folks like Scott Pressler etc. We should/could get some early vote data from PA on Monday, fyi.
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Captn_Ag05
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6:30p, 9/27/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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6:32p, 9/27/24
AG
Flip side

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XpressAg09
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:37a, 9/28/24
AG
The question is: are blacks voting left or right this time around?

A black vote in 2024 isn't nearly as likely to be Democrat this time around.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:13p, 9/30/24
AG
It appears Republicans are doing a good job getting out the infrequent voter in Virginia so far.

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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:01a, 10/1/24
AG
It's still too early to draw conclusions on VA's numbers though. NoVa votes more in the last few weeks of early voting when they quadruple the stations (I didn't realize this until this am), so the communists will close well.





PA data is looking 'good-ish' imho:
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Captn_Ag05
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11:37a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:39a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:40a, 10/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:40a, 10/1/24
AG
Anyone notice a trend?
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Captn_Ag05
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4:53p, 10/2/24
AG
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4stringAg
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4:59p, 10/2/24
AG
In several of the swing states, the Rs are up in mail in ballot requests and Ds are down. Just my interpretation of that:

  • R's have gotten the message about using mail-in voting and not waiting until election day. The question will be if these are net new voters or just substituting mail in for in person.
  • D's don't seem to have the enthusiasm they did in 2020 for mail in voting (or else because Covid is not hanging over everything, maybe feel like they will vote in person, can't tell from just the numbers).
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2023NCAggies
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8:35a, 10/3/24
Seems PA is a huge focus for Trump (duh). Elon has been dispatched. Also reports DEMs have so much cash they do not know what to do with it, so they are throwing it at races that are far fetched, like Texas, Ohio and Florida. They have probably spent over 100 million in Montana.

All that to say, if they are outspending Rs by that much and Trump is almost leading, not a good sign, you have basically maxed out your support already and polls continue to be neck and neck.

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