***Official Early Vote Tracking***

251,386 Views | 1696 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by IDaggie06
Philip J Fry
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:10p, 11/3/24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/early-voting-numbers-are-scary-for-harris-democrats-are-panicking-former-obama-campaign-manager-warns/ar-AA1trNwL


Quote:
"Republicans are kicking our ass at early voting," Nevada Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus said during a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. "We cannot let that happen."
In Georgia, Republicans appear confident the state's record-setting early voting numbers will favor Trump. The former commander in chief lost Georgia by less than 1% in 2020, and Republicans have poured enormous time and resources into winning it back.
During the early voting period between Oct. 15 and Nov. 1, nearly 4 million Georgians cast in-person or absentee ballots, more than half the state's active voters. Over 700,000 people who voted already in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia Votes. Meanwhile, the top three counties for voter turnout rates are rural areas won by Trump in 2020.
A source on the Trump campaign told the New York Post Sunday that in four battleground states - Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, "Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the outlet reported.
Reply Quote
2023NCAggies
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:17p, 11/3/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote


Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump
Reply Quote
e=mc2
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Philip J Fry • 11:32p, 11/3/24
Philip J Fry said:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/early-voting-numbers-are-scary-for-harris-democrats-are-panicking-former-obama-campaign-manager-warns/ar-AA1trNwL


Quote:
"Republicans are kicking our ass at early voting," Nevada Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus said during a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. "We cannot let that happen."
In Georgia, Republicans appear confident the state's record-setting early voting numbers will favor Trump. The former commander in chief lost Georgia by less than 1% in 2020, and Republicans have poured enormous time and resources into winning it back.
During the early voting period between Oct. 15 and Nov. 1, nearly 4 million Georgians cast in-person or absentee ballots, more than half the state's active voters. Over 700,000 people who voted already in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia Votes. Meanwhile, the top three counties for voter turnout rates are rural areas won by Trump in 2020.
A source on the Trump campaign told the New York Post Sunday that in four battleground states - Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, "Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the outlet reported.
Reply Quote
fightingfarmer09
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:55p, 11/3/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote
2023NCAggies said:


Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump


This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.
Reply Quote
IDaggie06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 12:09a, 11/4/24
+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)
2023NCAggies said:


Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump
fightingfarmer09 said:


This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.
Reply Quote
2 edits
nortex97
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:01a, 11/4/24




Obama campaign manager admits EV numbers are scary:


Reply Quote
mslags97
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to IDaggie06 • 5:01a, 11/4/24
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)
fightingfarmer09 said:


This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.
IDaggie06 said:

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.


Please tell me if I'm wrong, but that's not what the early numbers seem to be showing. There is not a lot more early voting for Republicans. For the most part, the R's are hitting about the same as far as early voting. They are showing out at 100-101% of their 2020 returns. The difference is the dems are not hitting their 2020 early and mail in ballot numbers this go around which is where you get the lower dem lead going into Election Day.

I would not be surprised by the Rep's hitting or exceeding their ED numbers from 2020. I absolutely think there appears to be a much more energized base for Trump this year. I didn't think that could/would happen, but I believe his support is even larger now.

Maybe I'm wrong on PA. I do think Fla's early voting numbers have well passed 2020….. but the other states appear to mostly be in line with the 2020 numbers.

Edit to add: even in Fla, where Trump holds a massive lead, the early voting number is at 101% of 2020. It's just the Dems number is a much lower % of what they showed in early voting in 2020.
Reply Quote
1 edit
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to mslags97 • 5:32a, 11/4/24
I think the ED cannabilization (or not) will be highly dependent per state this time. For some states where GOP really targeted new registrations (e.g., PA), the GOP also really pushed for EV from those new voters.

That being said, the GOP is undeniably in a much better position across the board than 2020.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Prosperdick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to IDaggie06 • 7:26a, 11/4/24
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)
fightingfarmer09 said:


This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.
IDaggie06 said:

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.

Speaking of Pennslyvania...
Reply Quote
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:46a, 11/4/24


Former Mayor of Philly.
Reply Quote
SpreadsheetAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:48a, 11/4/24
Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results
Reply Quote
Muy
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:53a, 11/4/24
I can't believe anyone is inspired to vote for Kamala, they are only voting against Trump. On the other hand, people are inspired by Trump and know what he is able to get done to help America once again.
Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:55a, 11/4/24
Looking good in NC as long as R's vote like they have in the past.

Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:01a, 11/4/24
Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:02a, 11/4/24
Likely last ever rally for Donald Trump. Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Reply Quote
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 8:06a, 11/4/24
will25u said:
I thought I had seen that Dems had broken through to +400,000? Did a bunch of R returns come in to bring it back down?
Reply Quote
texagbeliever
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to IDaggie06 • 8:06a, 11/4/24
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)
fightingfarmer09 said:


This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.
IDaggie06 said:

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.


2024 EV is at the same level as 2020 EV turnout for Republicans so there is no reason to think 2024 ED turnout will be less. It will only be less if men are not motivated. I doubt that is the case.
Reply Quote
1 edit
harge57
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to IDaggie06 • 8:08a, 11/4/24
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)
fightingfarmer09 said:


This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.
IDaggie06 said:

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year . So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.


As you can see in the percentage above that is not necessarily true. Republican turnout is in line with 2020. Democrats are just down 20% from 2020.
Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SwigAg11 • 8:35a, 11/4/24
will25u said:
SwigAg11 said:
I thought I had seen that Dems had broken through to +400,000? Did a bunch of R returns come in to bring it back down?
Seems it is.

Reply Quote
Prosperdick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:58a, 11/4/24
[Not going to derail this with a discussion on election fraud. Plenty of other threads for that -- Staff]
Reply Quote
tallgrant
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:17a, 11/4/24
No idea where that David Chapman guy got his numbers, but they're at least a week old. PA's official number today had 997,450 Dem returned ballots vs 587,546 Republican.
Reply Quote
Prosperdick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to tallgrant • 9:20a, 11/4/24
tallgrant said:
No idea where that David Chapman guy got his numbers, but they're at least a week old. PA's official number today had 997,450 Dem returned ballots vs 587,546 Republican.
So Dems lead is just over 400,000 whereas it was over a million in 2020. This also will be interesting to track:

Reply Quote
txags92
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to tallgrant • 9:21a, 11/4/24
tallgrant said:
No idea where that David Chapman guy got his numbers, but they're at least a week old. PA's official number today had 997,450 Dem returned ballots vs 587,546 Republican.
So roughly a 410k advantage for Ds vs 1.1 M in 2020, with R turnout about the same as 2020 and D turnout way down. Add to that the Rs turning out a lot of new and low propensity voters, and they have a lot left in the tank for ED.
Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:29a, 11/4/24
If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Reply Quote
1 edit
will25u
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:39a, 11/4/24


Reply Quote
1 edit
Prosperdick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 9:44a, 11/4/24
will25u said:
If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.
Reply Quote
nortex97
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Prosperdick • 9:49a, 11/4/24
Miami Dade also has a large Puerto Rican expat community (something like 1.3 million I think, in FL statewide), in addition to the Cubano one. That segment of voters don't seem too mad at Trump based on EV is my point.
Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:51a, 11/4/24
Reply Quote
txags92
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Prosperdick • 9:52a, 11/4/24
will25u said:
If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Prosperdick said:
Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.
When there is a huge enthusiasm swing between the two parties, it would be pretty shocking to see the Ind voters swing heavily towards the side with a distinct lack of voter enthusiasm.

I also think an underestimated factor on the D side is how Kamala was annointed without a primary process. She was not a widely popular politician in her party, so to have her "selected" using a non-democratic process is likely to have turned quite a few D and D-leaning voters off. They may not go vote for Trump, they will likely just not vote.
Reply Quote
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Prosperdick • 9:52a, 11/4/24
Prosperdick said:

Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.
1) For the states that provide the information, Rs are maintaining their 2020 EV numbers (a little ahead in some places), and Ds are down from 2020.
2) The Independent breakdown is going to vary by state, but nationally, I believe the polls have been showing that Trump is in the lead for the Independent vote.
Reply Quote
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 9:52a, 11/4/24
Thank you Scott Presler! He got those disaffected and low propensity voters in PA to not only register but to vote.
Reply Quote
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:53a, 11/4/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Which just entirely debunks the Dem/MSM talking point of women coming out in massive numbers to vote for Harris.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Prosperdick • 9:53a, 11/4/24
Prosperdick said:


Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.
Point A goes against all of their recent history.

Point B ALSO goes against typical voting history for Independents. Especially with a polarizing Trump and a very marginal candidate in Harris with baggage of the previous 4 years. At best it would be 40/60, maybe 50/50.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
Reply Quote
SpreadsheetAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:55a, 11/4/24
Question:

Aren't early votes just transferring the date that a voter submits from Day-of to Earlier? So the net gain is technically Zero?

I understand that this shows eagerness and velocity of the parties (i.e. enthusiasm), and that's encouraging for the GOP / Trump in terms of where this was at versus 2020. But unless this also translates to MORE votes for the GOP... how is the data that helpful?

Also, does early voting also not give fraudsters (if you believe they exist) more data to know how much to cheat by earlier in the process?
Reply Quote
Prosperdick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to txags92 • 9:57a, 11/4/24
+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)
Prosperdick said:
Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.
txags92 said:
When there is a huge enthusiasm swing between the two parties, it would be pretty shocking to see the Ind voters swing heavily towards the side with a distinct lack of voter enthusiasm.

I also think an underestimated factor on the D side is how Kamala was annointed without a primary process. She was not a widely popular politician in her party, so to have her "selected" using a non-democratic process is likely to have turned quite a few D and D-leaning voters off. They may not go vote for Trump, they will likely just not vote.
Something else that I don't see many people discussing in terms of Indy voters is how many of them were RFK supporters? They are now voting Trump obviously so when I keep hearing Kamala supporters saying Indy will break huge for her I just don't understand why? Actually I do, it's all they have at this point.
Reply Quote
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.