***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Toptierag2018
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In reply to Ryan the Temp • 1:21p
Ryan the Temp said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..


Doesn't matter as long as they vote as expected on ED.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:02p
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:19p
AG
Another note on Arizona:

Arizona is a state that votes early traditionally, so you can tell more by looking at their 2020 data than maybe other states like Pennsylvania that voted so heavily by mail during Covid.

Look at the movement in Arizona. This is about 2/3 of the expected final vote. The remaining 1/3 will come on Election Day.

These things don't happen in isolation.

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JDUB08AG
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2:20p
AG
Enough to maybe get lake over the finish line?
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aezmvp
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 2:21p
If the final was +8 yes probably. 5 would be nail biter less and she loses probably. She is also the medias most hated candidate.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 2:26p
AG
JDUB08AG said:
Enough to maybe get lake over the finish line?
If Republicans outvote Democrats on Tuesday, she may be able to eek out a win. I didn't think she had a chance a couple of weeks ago, but these numbers are eye opening. She has to hold on to more Republicans than polling shows her currently doing to win. She has also been getting absolutely smoked by independents in polling.

I am still a bit skeptical that there will be that many crossover Trump voters not voting for her, but she seems to be uniquely unpopular there.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:28p
Captn_Ag05 said:
Another note on Arizona:

Arizona is a state that votes early traditionally, so you can tell more by looking at their 2020 data than maybe other states like Pennsylvania that voted so heavily by mail during Covid.

Look at the movement in Arizona. This is about 2/3 of the expected final vote. The remaining 1/3 will come on Election Day.

These things don't happen in isolation.


So in votes
R: 910K votes in 2020, 900k in 2024
D: 910k votes in 2020, 700k in 2024.

Yeah turnout is clearly favoring one side....
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Rockdoc
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2:29p
AG
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to texagbeliever • 2:33p
AG
Yes and on the independents, you can study election cycle after election cycle. When one party is showing up in bigger numbers/higher rate, the independents that show up will also favor the party that is more enthused.

If Democrat loyalists aren't showing up, what would make someone think that less partisan independents that may lean Democrat are going to show up?
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outofstateaggie
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In reply to Rockdoc • 3:13p
AG
Rockdoc said:
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.


I hope so. We said the same thing about Biden.
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