rononeill said:
So all of this early voting analysis y'all are posting is pretty favorable. But this IS Texags and, let's be honest, the smart people on here tracking this stuff are generally conservatively oriented so MAY have biased sources. Are there any left leaning analyses saying the same data is good for the Dems? I'm just scared of getting blindsided Tuesday night...
Raw absentee ballot returns by PA Micro-Communities by party, through 10/31 vs. similar points in 2020/22.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 2, 2024
We're seeing the minority Dem turnout problem come into clearer view, with lowest Dem performances vs 2020 in Latino Philly, Black Philly, and Black Pittsburgh. pic.twitter.com/z3nv8uR1qY
For all the people asking why Trump is campaigning in NC: https://t.co/SvCHUc3Bxj
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 2, 2024
Thanks for the info.JDUB08AG said:
That suburban Philly number is +85k for the GOP alone
SwigAg11 said:
Have to be careful interpreting what she means here. Basically, Trump's margins are much higher in WI/PA (more in the 800,000 range) compared to NC/GA (400,000 range). In other words, WI/PA are quickly getting out of reach for Harris, and it makes more mathematical sense to go after NC/GA due to needing half the raw vote counts.For all the people asking why Trump is campaigning in NC: https://t.co/SvCHUc3Bxj
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 2, 2024
One of his NC stops today is close to the VA border; the other is on the other side of the state to the south.Philip J Fry said:
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events
Or…maybe it's thst he's campaigning in north NC that's only 40 minutes from the VA border so it acts as a 2 for 1.
I made the mistake of watching Halperin's evening stream last night. He had Jonathan Alter on the entire stream. Alter did nothing but trash talk Trump. To his credit, Halperin was trying to get him to tone it down but Alter just ignored him and talked over him constantly. It was a pretty disgusting. Alter defended the media taking Trump out of context on the warhawk Liz Cheney, claiming it was Trump's fault because of his "violent rhetoric."SwigAg11 said:
I completely agree with you, and your comments exactly lead into the point she is making - Kamala's best path forward mathematically is to get NC/GA.
Edit: This aligns with Halperin's comments last night that party insiders on both sides have said they would be shocked if Harris won WI.
