***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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2023NCAggies
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6:54p, 10/6/24
I know this early voting tracking but I'm going to post trending articles. Staff if I need to start official election thread, let me know please

Of course it's the man that has to lead. Black men wavering to trump. This might be that "break away" election Rs desperately needed.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/05/opinion/african-americans-are-finally-voting-for-their-best-interests/

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2023NCAggies
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6:59p, 10/6/24
My prediction almost

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SwigAg11
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 7:26p, 10/6/24
AG
That seems like a bold prediction!
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Captn_Ag05
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1:52p, 10/7/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:00p, 10/7/24
AG
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2023NCAggies
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5:53p, 10/7/24
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-poll-shows-hispanics-backing-southwest-swing-states
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will25u
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8:24p, 10/7/24
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2023NCAggies
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8:34p, 10/7/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 8:45p, 10/7/24
AG
will25u said:

It is a Monday night, so I wouldn't expect a big uptick. Will be interesting to watch over the next week.
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nortex97
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6:28a, 10/8/24
AG




Long post/good thread on early voting tea leaves;

Quote:
Yes, it is far too early to make general assumptions about early voting; we have just 2 million votes in, and no state has a substantial number of votes to say anything meaningful.

However, before polls close on November 5th, we'll see 70% of the total vote in Florida and Arizona, 65% of the vote in Nevada, 60% of the vote in North Carolina and Georgia, etc. 65 million votes will be cast before you wake up Tuesday morning, November 5th.

We'll know the racial makeup of this vote, where it comes from, and what party it comes from (in party registration states). In some states, we'll also know the voter frequency in terms of how many votes they've cast in elections past.

With that much of the vote at our fingertips and demographic and party voting trends post-2020, getting to 100% in these states and knowing what the electorate looks like isn't very hard.

Seeing party turnout rates and knowing what the final electorate looks like will not reveal votes. But it goes a hell of a long way in helping us figure out whether there's an enthusiasm gap between races, ages, sexes, or parties that will make a difference.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:41a, 10/8/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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12:10p, 10/8/24
AG
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:42p, 10/8/24
Arizona has a huge "independent" voter population. A lot of them will swing to Dems unless the GOP is running a moderate. Trump may have a shot but Lake is toast.
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JDUB08AG
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1:00p, 10/8/24
AG
I don't understand what half these tweets are saying/implying
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2023NCAggies
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5:37p, 10/8/24
Guys in PA are kicking ass with Registration

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2023NCAggies
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5:54p, 10/8/24
This is interesting. Look at the drop off in Georgia and Nevada. That would likely be good news for Trump, in my opinion.

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Captn_Ag05
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9:12a, 10/9/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:31p, 10/10/24
AG
Republican leaders in PA feel that they need to be at 30% of the requests to be well situated. Republicans have started slowly inching towards that number.

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aggiehawg
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3:05p, 10/10/24
AG
Scott Pressler doin' work.



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Waffledynamics
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12:09p, 10/11/24
AG


ETA: Am I the only one that isn't sure what that X axis is?
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jeremiahjt
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:26p, 10/11/24
Waffledynamics said:


ETA: Am I the only one that isn't sure what that X axis is?


Days until election?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:33p, 10/11/24
I think it's days until the request deadline. Maybe not. Last day to request is October 29th in Pennsylvania.
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will25u
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In reply to jeremiahjt • 1:45p, 10/11/24
jeremiahjt said:
Waffledynamics said:


ETA: Am I the only one that isn't sure what that X axis is?


Days until election?
Yes. 25 Days until election.
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SwigAg11
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7:03p, 10/11/24
AG
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will25u
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8:20p, 10/11/24
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Captn_Ag05
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10:49a, 10/12/24
AG
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:30a, 10/12/24
AG
Assuming good for GOP?
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will25u
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6:34p, 10/12/24
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will25u
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6:35p, 10/12/24
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Captn_Ag05
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10:57a, 10/13/24
AG
Trump will obviously get blown out in CA, but perhaps this speaks to enthusiasm of voters.

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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 1:07p, 10/13/24
AG
That's a good follow. Good news overall but Dems doing their fraud thing again in Philadelphia:


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will25u
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6:57p, 10/13/24
Thread.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 7:08p, 10/13/24
AG
will25u said:
Thread.

If parsed that thread, he's stating that Reps have a significant enthusiasm advantage over Dems. Probably doesn't expect Trump to win VA, but it will be closer than the last 2 elections. However, he admits that if the polls keep shifting towards Trump, then it will be interesting to revisit in a week.
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texasnativeforumvisitor
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:46p, 10/13/24
Interesting that republicans point to 30% of requested ballots to feel comfortable (and they're super close!) while dems look to the 390k firewall (sorry not sure how to embed on my mobile):



I guess technically both can exist at the same time. I am very curious to see which theory proves correct if both exist at the same time.


Edit: oops look like it embedded, wasn't aware the link would show.
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will25u
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8:24p, 10/13/24
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