***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to will25u • 11:04a, 10/23/24
Oh I know, that's whats crazy to me. It's like JFF letting Duke jump out to a big lead then saying, ok watch this LOL
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will25u
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11:06a, 10/23/24
This is from Echelon Insights... No true how close they are or not.

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aezmvp
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 11:08a, 10/23/24
Yeah PA is a bigger state than most think. Dems basically can basically focus on Philly, Pittsburg, Lancaster, Harrisburg and Erie. All cities (ish by Texas standards). Pretty dense and so you can send your people to those areas and hit lots of people relatively quickly and relatively low cost. Republicans have been so far behind on registration that ground game is also difficult. This is the first cycle that R's have really fought hard and consistently to make up that ground.
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AtticusMatlock
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11:10a, 10/23/24
[NEVADA]

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agracer
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 11:11a, 10/23/24
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
agracer said:
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?

I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.

My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.

I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
Ive listened to an analyst and he answered it this way.

If you are a 4-for-4 voter (last 4 elections say "22,20,18,16") you are considered a "high propensity voter". You are like 95% likely that you are going to vote, regardless of when, so it dont matter.

The "miracle" this election is that Trump is turning out the low propensity voter and new voters, they are showing up to vote early as well. The more they show up early, the more time and $ Trump can spend going after the less enthusiastic.
How do they know this?

Are the states releasing data indicating that they have a lot of 'new' GOP/DEM voters?

Just curious.
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aezmvp
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:14a, 10/23/24
Same update as earlier. Basically Harris needs to win Independents by 15 points to make it tight. I bet they hit the panic button soon. The problem with the panic button in politics is it tends to drive high propensity voters to the polls but discourage mid propensity voters. Yes you'll activate your base and bring some low, but it's a tight spot to be in and it sucks your resources. They can afford, but may not have the staff, to reverse it 2 weeks out. Especially with news that outside GOP aligned groups are hiring staff for NM and NH.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to agracer • 11:16a, 10/23/24
AG
Quote:
How do they know this?

Are the states releasing data indicating that they have a lot of 'new' GOP/DEM voters?

Just curious.
Date of voter registration and follow my ballot apps that show they have voted.

We talked a week or so ago about the costs involved for the campaigns and PACs doing out reach. They keep tabs on who has voted and needs more reminders to vote and who has voted and then taken off the outreach database.
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txags92
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In reply to agracer • 11:18a, 10/23/24
AG
agracer said:
TheBonifaceOption said:
agracer said:
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?

I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.

My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.

I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
Ive listened to an analyst and he answered it this way.

If you are a 4-for-4 voter (last 4 elections say "22,20,18,16") you are considered a "high propensity voter". You are like 95% likely that you are going to vote, regardless of when, so it dont matter.

The "miracle" this election is that Trump is turning out the low propensity voter and new voters, they are showing up to vote early as well. The more they show up early, the more time and $ Trump can spend going after the less enthusiastic.
How do they know this?

Are the states releasing data indicating that they have a lot of 'new' GOP/DEM voters?

Just curious.
Both parties have lists of registered voters and know who voted in other previous elections. Those that haven't voted recently or who were registered recently are ranked a "low propensity", while folks who vote every election are considered "high propensity". When the SOS releases their records from early voting, they can cross reference those lists against their rankings of those voters to see who is turning out.
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to agracer • 11:27a, 10/23/24
agracer said:
TheBonifaceOption said:
agracer said:
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?

I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.

My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.

I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
Ive listened to an analyst and he answered it this way.

If you are a 4-for-4 voter (last 4 elections say "22,20,18,16") you are considered a "high propensity voter". You are like 95% likely that you are going to vote, regardless of when, so it dont matter.

The "miracle" this election is that Trump is turning out the low propensity voter and new voters, they are showing up to vote early as well. The more they show up early, the more time and $ Trump can spend going after the less enthusiastic.
How do they know this?

Are the states releasing data indicating that they have a lot of 'new' GOP/DEM voters?

Just curious.

They should have data sets on who has requested a ballot so they do not request multiple ballots for early vote.
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 11:29a, 10/23/24
TheBonifaceOption said:
TheBonifaceOption said:
County in central Texas. Been in line for an hour. About halfway done.

Sherrifs Deputy said it's been this bad all day.

One of the locations in the county (reddest) ran out of ballots, county seat running ballots out there on the regular.

1h45m from back of the line to receiving ballot. Line still around the block in 90F heat.

If he can take a bullet, people can endure an uncomfortable afternoon

It's Wednesday, I drove by today. Still a line that yielded a 2hr wait.

I assume it was like that on 10-22 as well.

Oh *****
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aezmvp
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 11:30a, 10/23/24
Most SoS websites also have ways for you to check if your vote has been counted. It's a database that has API access. Pretty easy to pull a list and have it match up to w/e your model looks like.
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LMCane
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 11:34a, 10/23/24
TheBonifaceOption said:
LMCane said:
akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
that simply is not true.

It's like stating that Trump will win West Virginia by 35 points so he will have a blowout nationally.

it's ONE STATE OUT OF 50 and not a battleground state

if it was Georgia or Pennsylvania your point would have merit-

it doesn't matter if we win Florida by 2 points or 15 points.
Yes and no.

If Trump is attractive to a large state, say Florida, by "70%" that means his appeal is transcending and trouncing Harris. Does it mean he will win Georgia to the north at 70/30? No, but the idea that the brand that is 30% in Florida is really 50%+1 in Georgia is unlikely.

There is a chance Trump actually wins the popular vote this year if Texas and Florida run it up, (as well as Dems disengaging in CA & NY). The momentum is red right now, and all the "October surprises" have been unsubstantiated and unverifiable claims. The landscape is set, short of a geopolitical event (war) which doesnt favor the 5'2" woman.

correct- obviously it is better to win by 15 than to lose by 15

but my point is that one can not extrapolate winning a national election based on ONE state's returns
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to LMCane • 11:39a, 10/23/24
"Why is Trump winning 70%" and "what messaging is working to get these groups to vote like this" are the important questions.

Truthfully there isn't sooo much localization that "*education level* *skin color* *gender*" voters are that dissimilar from one state to the next. Especially regionally.
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aezmvp
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In reply to LMCane • 11:41a, 10/23/24
If we already know by election day that WI, NV, NC are over and lets say that Trump is up in PA/MI/MN/AZ or whatever it will significantly diminish ED voting in California and New York. It will also push some other red voters to the polls and might make places like NJ close. That has pluses and minuses but I would LOVE for Trump to win the popular vote. It would be crushing to the far left and the media.
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gigemJTH12
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11:47a, 10/23/24
AG
is there any pro-democrat news coming out that is actually credible??

I am treating this whole election with a pessimistic attitude because I believe they will cheat. So I am not letting myself get excited until I see him swearing in.

but is there any real info coming out thats concerning?
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coolerguy12
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:53a, 10/23/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
The "October surprises" have not simply been unsubstantiated and unverifiable claims, but are directly refuted by those who were physically present. The insane lying by the media on this is dumbfounding to me, though admittedly, I view honesty as one of the most important qualities someone can have.


It's because they have spent nearly a decade trying to "get him" and they are simply out of ammo. They literally have nothing left at this point.
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Kellso
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 12:00p, 10/23/24
gigemJTH12 said:
is there any pro-democrat news coming out that is actually credible??

I am treating this whole election with a pessimistic attitude because I believe they will cheat. So I am not letting myself get excited until I see him swearing in.

but is there any real info coming out thats concerning?
The Democrats are running scared at the moment. Kamala is sending her supporters emails with panicked tones attempting to get her base to the polls.

Trump has done a masterful job of embracing early voting in this years election cycle. Team Trump is up at the moment, but Kamala still has the next two weeks to try and comeback.

Make no mistake about it....Kamala is the underdog. She faces a mighty uphill climb to defeat Trump because of how enthusiastic his supporters are to vote for him.

Early election returns show that the excitement in the inner city just isn't there for Kamala like there was for Joe Biden.

The one silver lining for Team Kamala is that an un-enthusiastic voters vote is worth the same as someone that is enthusiastic.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Kellso • 12:03p, 10/23/24
AG
Kellso said:
gigemJTH12 said:
is there any pro-democrat news coming out that is actually credible??

I am treating this whole election with a pessimistic attitude because I believe they will cheat. So I am not letting myself get excited until I see him swearing in.

but is there any real info coming out thats concerning?
The Democrats are running scared at the moment. Kamala is sending her supporters emails with panicked tones attempting to get her base to the polls.

Trump has done a masterful job of embracing early voting in this years election cycle. Team Trump is up at the moment, but Kamala still has the next two weeks to try and comeback.

Make no mistake about it....Kamala is the underdog. She face a mighty uphill climb to defeat Trump because of how enthusiastic his supporters are to vote for him.

Early election returns show that the excitement in the inner city just isn't there for Kamala like there was for Joe Biden.

The one silver lining for Team Kamala is that an un-enthusiastic voters vote is worth the same as someone that is enthusiastic.


This all sounds like great news to me.
One day at a time.
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will25u
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12:22p, 10/23/24

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nortex97
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12:23p, 10/23/24
AG
LFG.





Folks, it ain't over but again it's getting pretty close:

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will25u
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12:39p, 10/23/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 12:40p, 10/23/24
AG
will25u said:

Has he stopped putting out his analytics at this point?
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agsalaska
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:54p, 10/23/24
AG
The last I saw his models started breaking towards Trump about 10 days ago. My guess is he will publish all the way to the final.

He was the only one that gave Trump a chance in 16 and also saw the lack of buildup for the red wave of 22. Doubt he quits with two weeks to go but you never know.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Bulldog73
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In reply to LMCane • 12:56p, 10/23/24
AG
LMCane said:
TheBonifaceOption said:
LMCane said:
akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
that simply is not true.

It's like stating that Trump will win West Virginia by 35 points so he will have a blowout nationally.

it's ONE STATE OUT OF 50 and not a battleground state

if it was Georgia or Pennsylvania your point would have merit-

it doesn't matter if we win Florida by 2 points or 15 points.
Yes and no.

If Trump is attractive to a large state, say Florida, by "70%" that means his appeal is transcending and trouncing Harris. Does it mean he will win Georgia to the north at 70/30? No, but the idea that the brand that is 30% in Florida is really 50%+1 in Georgia is unlikely.

There is a chance Trump actually wins the popular vote this year if Texas and Florida run it up, (as well as Dems disengaging in CA & NY). The momentum is red right now, and all the "October surprises" have been unsubstantiated and unverifiable claims. The landscape is set, short of a geopolitical event (war) which doesnt favor the 5'2" woman.

correct- obviously it is better to win by 15 than to lose by 15

but my point is that one can not extrapolate winning a national election based on ONE state's returns
From what I understand, the results in Duval County in FL are a leading indicator of what will happen in GA and maybe NC based on election history. And Duval County is R+0.8 in mail and early voting. So there's that.
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akm91
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:58p, 10/23/24
AG
Miami Dade early voting is +11K R which more than overcomes both Broward (-7K R) and Orange (-3K R) combined!

Assuming 50/50 split of Independents (which is rather generous)

As of 10/23 8 am.

FL Early Voting Results
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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Gyles Marrett
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1:53p, 10/23/24
So what are we all going to do as Americans with seeing this early data when the vote count stops at 2 am and the cases of 100% Kamala votes get scanned until she's on top? At least the cheat will be more obvious this time.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to akm91 • 1:55p, 10/23/24
akm91 said:
Miami Dade early voting is +11K R which more than overcomes both Broward (-7K R) and Orange (-3K R) combined!

Assuming 50/50 split of Independents (which is rather generous)

As of 10/23 8 am.

FL Early Voting Results
The current tracker shows Miami Dade early vote as +11K D not R
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Squadron7
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1:58p, 10/23/24
AG
Anecdotal, but I am standing in the longest early voting line I've ever experienced in my very red burg.
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tk111
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In reply to Squadron7 • 2:01p, 10/23/24
AG
Squadron7 said:
Anecdotal, but I am standing in the longest early voting line I've ever experienced in my very red burg.
As a statistician, I approve this message.
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NPH-
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 2:04p, 10/23/24
AG
Gyles Marrett said:
akm91 said:
Miami Dade early voting is +11K R which more than overcomes both Broward (-7K R) and Orange (-3K R) combined!

Assuming 50/50 split of Independents (which is rather generous)

As of 10/23 8 am.

FL Early Voting Results
The current tracker shows Miami Dade early vote as +11K D not R
that's no bueno, is it?
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akm91
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 2:04p, 10/23/24
AG
I was looking at only the Early Voting Tab, where it's showing 34K R and 23K D.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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AgCMT
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2:06p, 10/23/24
AG
When will we start to see numbers for Texas?
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will25u
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2:14p, 10/23/24
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Kellso
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In reply to AgCMT • 2:22p, 10/23/24
AgCMT said:
When will we start to see numbers for Texas?

Here are some early numbers.
Kamala has a lot of work to do in the inner city. If Detroit, Milwaukee and Philly stay home....then Trump will win easily.
If I was deadset on Trump winning then I would be praying for the Democrats to stay at home and sit out this election like they did in 2016.

Quote:
The number of Texans who showed up at the polls on the first day of early voting is up at least 15% over that for the 2020 presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

At least 870,000 people cast a ballot Monday, surpassing 2020s opening day by over 87,000, though some counties are still reporting their tallies, according to Texas Secretary of State data.

Quote:
Still, state data shows record-high first-day early voting presidential election numbers around North Texas boosted the statewide tally. But that wasn't the case in Dallas County, where numbers dipped below those for 2020 and 2016.

Dallas County officials reported 56,074 voters cast ballots on Monday. According to the state, that's fewer than the 60,573 voters who went to the polls in person on the first day of early voting in October 2020 and 58,775 voters in October 2016.

Collin County reported seeing 43,398 voters, more than the 39,469 in 2020 and 31,283 in 2016. There were 49,813 voters who showed up Monday in Denton County, compared with 36,040 in 2020 and 16,936 in 2016. In Tarrant County, 58,247 people voted Monday, more than the 42,351 in 2020 and 43,149 in 2016.



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aezmvp
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2:30p, 10/23/24
So far roughly 27% of AZ is in and outside of the independents the GOP advantage is 50k. The GOP is behind in turnout as well with a growing lead because of the registration efforts. That means the GOP has the chance to increase their lead as they go on as well. The real question is where turnout overall is. 2020 was almost 80%, 2016 was just over 70%. That's about a 300k difference.

Also important to note is that the difference in 2020 in returned ballots was within a few thousand of the total difference. We will see about 75% of the ballots come in early if trends hold. Bottom line IF this keeps going on Kamala will need to win by 10 points on ED AND with independents. That seems.... unlikely.
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