might as well throw a few hundy on Kamala on Polymarket. I've seen worse odds
***Official Early Vote Tracking***
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Last: 3 mo ago by IDaggie06
In 2016, D led the voter registration by 330k. By 2020, that lead was down to 97k. Now, it has flipped and R leads by a whopping 1.077M. Incredible. FL results will reflect this seismic shift. I expect Trump to win FL by 15 pts. https://t.co/M21bDhAjbH
— au ng (@athein1) October 23, 2024
“Thing are very tense now,” says @MarkHalperin. “The early vote looks very good for Republicans. Not that they're going to win the early vote, but that the delta is going to be small enough. If it stays on this trajectory, Election Day would be anticlimactic. Democrats are going… pic.twitter.com/fNijXNPTs7
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 23, 2024
Here I thought Maricopa County have some of the most convoluted and confusing election procedures. Wisconsin says hold my beer.
WTH is "in person absentee"? Isn't that just in person early voting?
Quote:
All eyes are on Wisconsin polling locations to see if the long lines will continues again on the second day of voting.
Some voters in Northeast Wisconsin waited for over an hour in long lines on the first day of early voting for the 2024 general election.
The wait in Appleton was as long as two-and-a-half hours on Tuesday.
When voters realized just how long the wait could be, they were surprised. Some left, not able to wait for that long.
Quote:
The Wisconsin Elections Commission released a statement Tuesday evening regarding the delay some voters faced:
Due to higher than expected turnout for the first day of in-person absentee voting, the WisVote system that some clerks use experienced a period of slowness that has now been resolved. Clerks use WisVote to print a label that can be placed on the outside of in-person absentee certificate envelopes.
LINKQuote:
The same information can be affixed on the outside of the envelope manually with a pen.
Today's system lag was purely related to demands on the WisVote system due to high turnout.
This should not prevent any voter's ability to vote in-person absentee today. WEC staff worked quickly to increase system capacity to ensure that clerks can continue to facilitate in-person absentee voting efficiently.
WTH is "in person absentee"? Isn't that just in person early voting?
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
300+!akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
The benefit of early voting is that 1) enthusiastic voters can now be activated to chase other votes for your party, 2) the candidates dont have to dedicate $ or time to making sure they vote later, meaning they can devote their dollars to chasing leaners.akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
This could be the awakening of a silent plurality.
That is party registrations, not early votes.akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
- You request absentee ballot.
- You don't trust the USPS. (I have mail carrier relatives, don't trust the USPS; they don't.)
- You bring absentee ballot to voting location.
- They print the sticker that allows it to be tabulated there.
- You turn in ballot.
- Viola!
Thanks for catching my error. Damn that's a big shift in voter registration
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
I wonder if thats "Im registered in El Paso, but I wont be near my county for the duration of the early vote or election day periods because of work/dying parent, so I voted in Tarrant county."aggiehawg said:
Here I thought Maricopa County have some of the most convoluted and confusing election procedures. Wisconsin says hold my beer.Quote:
All eyes are on Wisconsin polling locations to see if the long lines will continues again on the second day of voting.
Some voters in Northeast Wisconsin waited for over an hour in long lines on the first day of early voting for the 2024 general election.
The wait in Appleton was as long as two-and-a-half hours on Tuesday.
When voters realized just how long the wait could be, they were surprised. Some left, not able to wait for that long.Quote:
The Wisconsin Elections Commission released a statement Tuesday evening regarding the delay some voters faced:
Due to higher than expected turnout for the first day of in-person absentee voting, the WisVote system that some clerks use experienced a period of slowness that has now been resolved. Clerks use WisVote to print a label that can be placed on the outside of in-person absentee certificate envelopes.LINKQuote:
The same information can be affixed on the outside of the envelope manually with a pen.
Today's system lag was purely related to demands on the WisVote system due to high turnout.
This should not prevent any voter's ability to vote in-person absentee today. WEC staff worked quickly to increase system capacity to ensure that clerks can continue to facilitate in-person absentee voting efficiently.
WTH is "in person absentee"? Isn't that just in person early voting?
Yes, I think Republicans could have a 500,000 vote edge in the early vote when it does wrap up and could end up winning the state by over a million.akm91 said:
Thanks for catching my error. Damn that's a big shift in voter registration
NV Update:
The early voting blog is updated!
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2024
Out: Clark D firewall
In: Rural R firewall.
It's real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage.
Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV.https://t.co/Pl43XBMcPA
Just stupid to overclassify what is an in person voting during early voting period.
I noticed the same classification weirdness during the Kari Lake mini trials. Even Valenzuela, election employee for over 30 years could not keep all of the classifications straight during his testimony. And in Maricopa County, those classifications mean the votes are tabulated differently because the ballots are configured differently.
Why? No idea. And none of the Maricopa County election officials can explain that either.
I noticed the same classification weirdness during the Kari Lake mini trials. Even Valenzuela, election employee for over 30 years could not keep all of the classifications straight during his testimony. And in Maricopa County, those classifications mean the votes are tabulated differently because the ballots are configured differently.
Why? No idea. And none of the Maricopa County election officials can explain that either.
North Carolina 🌄
— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 23, 2024
Mail: 110,613 ballots
Early In-Person: 1,595,486 ballots
Ballots by party registration:
🔵 Democratic 34.5% | 589,084 votes
🔴 Republican 33.9% | 578,528 votes
⚪️ Other 31.6% | 538,487 votes pic.twitter.com/9ol3xb0MCD
North Carolina Early Vote Through Day 6 Comparison;
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 23, 2024
2020:
🔵 44% (+16)
🔴 28%
🟡 28%
Total: 2,186,981
2024:
🔵 34%
🔴 34%
🟡 32%
Total: 1,706,097
Well, what I understand is that if you show up to vote in a wrong county they give you a ballot that is state-wide elections only. So if you wanted to vote for your state-rep, you are SOL.aggiehawg said:
Just stupid to overclassify what is an in person voting during early voting period.
I noticed the same classification weirdness during the Kari Lake mini trials. Even Valenzuela, election employee for over 30 years could not keep all of the classifications straight during his testimony. And in Maricopa County, those classifications mean the votes are tabulated differently because the ballots are configured differently.
Why? No idea. And none of the Maricopa County election officials can explain that either.
I wonder if they allow federal elections on "absentee in person" like Congressional elections. "Tarrant county" would not have information on "El Paso's congressional race."
Per their registrar's websites, in person absentee voting in Wisconsin or in person vote by mail in Pennsylvania is how they early vote. You request the ballot, fill it out, and instead of mailing it in you go to the polling place and drop it off. You can't just show up and vote early like we do in Texas (edit: though you can do all the steps to get an absentee or mail in ballot in person and then fill it out and drop it off , instead of waiting for them to mail)
From what I saw they have to request the early ballot by 5 pm on Oct 31 in either state.
From what I saw they have to request the early ballot by 5 pm on Oct 31 in either state.
That "other" category has been breaking for Trump.will25u said:North Carolina 🌄
— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 23, 2024
Mail: 110,613 ballots
Early In-Person: 1,595,486 ballots
Ballots by party registration:
🔵 Democratic 34.5% | 589,084 votes
🔴 Republican 33.9% | 578,528 votes
⚪️ Other 31.6% | 538,487 votes pic.twitter.com/9ol3xb0MCD
This says 58% for trump
https://www.news10.com/news/ny-capitol-news/empire-state-weekly/new-poll-trump-gains-ground-among-independent-voters/
NC Early Voting Update 10/23:
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 23, 2024
R's won another day, the D lead down to 10K. The swings in both party ID and race are again just not sustainable for Ds. At some point they either have to show up or they will be so far behind Rs that it won't be possible to catch up.
Total Early… https://t.co/M5omjA6JJ5
Pretty solid.
Speaking of a million and Florida, Republicans have just crossed 1 million votes cast in Florida with the last update. In-person early voting started on Monday and Republicans have been running up the numbers.
Trump will not come close to winning Florida by 15 points. Lets be realistic here....or risk setting these people up to be very disappointed.will25u said:In 2016, D led the voter registration by 330k. By 2020, that lead was down to 97k. Now, it has flipped and R leads by a whopping 1.077M. Incredible. FL results will reflect this seismic shift. I expect Trump to win FL by 15 pts. https://t.co/M21bDhAjbH
— au ng (@athein1) October 23, 2024
I think it will be around to 10% maybe a little less.
2022 Marco Rubio - 16.4%
2022 Ron DeSantis - 19.4%
2022 AG - 21.2%
2022 Marco Rubio - 16.4%
2022 Ron DeSantis - 19.4%
2022 AG - 21.2%
To get to 15% gap you would need 1.6 mil votes over the opponent.
2020, the GOP won by 250k. So 1.35m is difficult. But every vote you flip is netting 2 votes (one fewer Dem, one more GOP). If Dade is red, that means flips on a major scale. And how realistic is it? Hurricane response and older americans who are wiser than the tictok generation could be massive.
2020, the GOP won by 250k. So 1.35m is difficult. But every vote you flip is netting 2 votes (one fewer Dem, one more GOP). If Dade is red, that means flips on a major scale. And how realistic is it? Hurricane response and older americans who are wiser than the tictok generation could be massive.
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?
I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.
My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.
I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.
My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.
I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
that simply is not true.akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
It's like stating that Trump will win West Virginia by 35 points so he will have a blowout nationally.
it's ONE STATE OUT OF 50 and not a battleground state
if it was Georgia or Pennsylvania your point would have merit-
it doesn't matter if we win Florida by 2 points or 15 points.
The reason it is bad for Democrats is because...agracer said:
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?
I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.
My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.
I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
1. Republicans are voting in line with previous elections. Maybe a few percent higher.
2. Democrats are underperforming by a pretty sizable margin. 5-10% under performance compared to 2016, 2020.
3. White vote is higher, Black vote is lower.
4. Harris has an enthusiasm problem.
it ABSOLUTELY matters that GOP is voting early for several important reasonsagracer said:
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?
I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.
My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.
I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
it is harder to cheat when there is less of a delta between early vote and same day voting
some people will die or get in accidents or be on business trips on election day
there will be snow or rain on election day
it enables the GOP and associated groups to "chase" ballots the next two weeks and cross off those who have voted to then focus on the smaller number they need to get to the polls
and it means there is less of a margin that the GOP needs to make up on election day
and it sets the media narrative
Ive listened to an analyst and he answered it this way.agracer said:
Does the number of early voters matter that much as this thread seems to be suggesting (a huge GOP swing)?
I never voted early until the 2016 election. It's just more convenient than the lines on election day. 10-minutes each time I've done it (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022) vs 45-60m in person day of. Wife is the same.
My dad is the same. He always voted on election day and now votes early every election cycle.
I also recall hearing that Dems voted early and my mail in far higher numbers than GOP for a long time. Is this simply the GOP voters have shifted more to early voting than in previous elections?
If you are a 4-for-4 voter (last 4 elections say "22,20,18,16") you are considered a "high propensity voter". You are like 95% likely that you are going to vote, regardless of when, so it dont matter.
The "miracle" this election is that Trump is turning out the low propensity voter and new voters, they are showing up to vote early as well. The more they show up early, the more time and $ Trump can spend going after the less enthusiastic.
🚨 BREAKING: Wisconsin Republican areas CRUSHED IT on day one of early voting.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024
🔴 Strong GOP counties: 34.7%
🔴 Lean GOP counties: 29.1%
🔵 Lean DEM counties: 11.4%
🔵 Strong DEM counties: 24.8%
That's the relative share of the day's vote. Republicans STORMED the polls.
h/t:… pic.twitter.com/lt34GnI7EZ
Yes and no.LMCane said:that simply is not true.akm91 said:
Holy Chit! 1M buffer just in early voting for Trump in FL? If that mirrors the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, it is going to be a blowout win for Trump.
It's like stating that Trump will win West Virginia by 35 points so he will have a blowout nationally.
it's ONE STATE OUT OF 50 and not a battleground state
if it was Georgia or Pennsylvania your point would have merit-
it doesn't matter if we win Florida by 2 points or 15 points.
If Trump is attractive to a large state, say Florida, by "70%" that means his appeal is transcending and trouncing Harris. Does it mean he will win Georgia to the north at 70/30? No, but the idea that the brand that is 30% in Florida is really 50%+1 in Georgia is unlikely.
There is a chance Trump actually wins the popular vote this year if Texas and Florida run it up, (as well as Dems disengaging in CA & NY). The momentum is red right now, and all the "October surprises" have been unsubstantiated and unverifiable claims. The landscape is set, short of a geopolitical event (war) which doesnt favor the 5'2" woman.
The "October surprises" have not simply been unsubstantiated and unverifiable claims, but are directly refuted by those who were physically present. The insane lying by the media on this is dumbfounding to me, though admittedly, I view honesty as one of the most important qualities someone can have.
What have they even been? I follow politics more than probably 90% of people and don't even know what you are talking about as far as October surprises lol.....which is telling about their significance, whatever they are.SwigAg11 said:
The "October surprises" have not simply been unsubstantiated and unverifiable claims, but are directly refuted by those who were physically present. The insane lying by the media on this is dumbfounding to me, though admittedly, I view honesty as one of the most important qualities someone can have.
Republicans with another good day in PA.
Wisconsin:
Pennsylvania 🚂
— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 23, 2024
Mail and absentee voting update
Total: 1,123,509 (+71,854 since Oct 22)
🔵 Democratic 60.9% | 684,724 votes (+35,664)
🔴 Republican 29.2% | 328,074 votes (+27,212)
⚪️ Other 9.9% | 110,711 votes (+8,978) pic.twitter.com/evpD4S1GGY
🚨 BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans just posted another huge single day mail-in voting update.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024
🔴 Day gain on returns: R+1.4
🔴 Day gain on requests: R+0.7
The 2020 mail-in ballots were D+41.6. Today, they are D+31.7, and will CONTINUE declining.
GOP overperforming big.
Pennsylvania Mail Return Rate:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 23, 2024
Oct 16: 🔵 +8.9
Oct 17: 🔵 +8.5
Oct 18: 🔵 +7.9
Oct 21: 🔵 +7.8
Oct 22: 🔵 +6.5
Oct 23: 🔵 +5.9
Wisconsin:
🚨 BREAKING: Wisconsin Republican areas CRUSHED IT on day one of early voting.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024
🔴 Strong GOP counties: 34.7%
🔴 Lean GOP counties: 29.1%
🔵 Lean DEM counties: 11.4%
🔵 Strong DEM counties: 24.8%
That's the relative share of the day's vote. Republicans STORMED the polls.
h/t:… pic.twitter.com/lt34GnI7EZ
CRIMSON red counties below posted huge turnout yesterday (percent of FINAL 2022 votes):
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 23, 2024
Florence - 73%
Dodge - 54%
Clark - 102% (!!!)
Oconto - 67%
Shawano - 62%
Dios Mio https://t.co/BcWzMkcmAn
I know historically D's vote more so early and R's vote on election day....but it will always be weird to me how overwhelming that happens in PA. So much that being down 31% means R's in great shape lolwill25u said:
Republicans with another good day in PA.Pennsylvania 🚂
— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 23, 2024
Mail and absentee voting update
Total: 1,123,509 (+71,854 since Oct 22)
🔵 Democratic 60.9% | 684,724 votes (+35,664)
🔴 Republican 29.2% | 328,074 votes (+27,212)
⚪️ Other 9.9% | 110,711 votes (+8,978) pic.twitter.com/evpD4S1GGY🚨 BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans just posted another huge single day mail-in voting update.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024
🔴 Day gain on returns: R+1.4
🔴 Day gain on requests: R+0.7
The 2020 mail-in ballots were D+41.6. Today, they are D+31.7, and will CONTINUE declining.
GOP overperforming big.
Trump was down 1.1 million in 2020 and ED got it back to about ~80k extra for Biden.Gyles Marrett said:I know historically D's vote more so early and R's vote on election day....but it will always be weird to me how overwhelming that happens in PA. So much that being down 31% means R's in great shape lolwill25u said:
Republicans with another good day in PA.Pennsylvania 🚂
— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 23, 2024
Mail and absentee voting update
Total: 1,123,509 (+71,854 since Oct 22)
🔵 Democratic 60.9% | 684,724 votes (+35,664)
🔴 Republican 29.2% | 328,074 votes (+27,212)
⚪️ Other 9.9% | 110,711 votes (+8,978) pic.twitter.com/evpD4S1GGY🚨 BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans just posted another huge single day mail-in voting update.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024
🔴 Day gain on returns: R+1.4
🔴 Day gain on requests: R+0.7
The 2020 mail-in ballots were D+41.6. Today, they are D+31.7, and will CONTINUE declining.
GOP overperforming big.
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