***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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btk55
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In reply to NPH- • 9:42a, 11/5/24
AG
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)
Dem EV lead in 2020 was 1,000,000 and Biden won by less than 100,000 votes. Republicans historically vote on Election Day, so dems were hoping for a EV lead of 500,000 at MINIMUM this cycle. If Republicans show up today, PA goes red.
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FireAg
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In reply to NPH- • 9:42a, 11/5/24
AG
Trump was down 1.1M votes going into ED 2020…

He lost by ~100K votes…

So ED voting closed the gap by ~1M votes in 2020…

If he gets the same turnout as 2020, but only has to close the a gap of 420K votes…he wins PA…
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jokershady
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In reply to aggietony2010 • 9:43a, 11/5/24
AG
aggietony2010 said:
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)


It was 1.2 million (I think) in 2020.
This.

If I'm understanding things correctly....assuming the exact same voter turnout for PA that we had in 2020 for the actual election day, Trump should win PA by 400k - 500k votes....cause if memory serves that 1.2 million gap was closed down to Biden only winning PA by 100k votes.....

Did I do math good?
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NPH-
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In reply to Legal Custodian • 9:43a, 11/5/24
AG
Legal Custodian said:
I'm probably responding cynically because I'm not sure how you could not know this when following this thread by now.

But the lead for D's back in 2020 from early voting was around 1.1million or so. So it is precipitously less.


To be fair I tried my best to follow this thread, and I admitted on the front end I was uneducated about that specific margin and its significance
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to NPH- • 9:43a, 11/5/24
AG
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)
Look at the numbers from 2020 and 2016.

PA Dems always vote early in HUGE numbers and Republicans dominate on ED.

Trump only lost by 80,000 votes in 2020 and he was down by nearly 1 million votes with early voting numbers.

Only being down by 400k means he can more than make-up that ground if the GOP just remains consistent (they don't even necessarily have to overperform on election day to win).
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Barnyard96
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In reply to NPH- • 12:20p, 11/5/24
AG
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NPH-
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12:47p, 11/5/24
AG
Does anyone else want to reply to me? Feel like almost all of F16 is pointing this out now.
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to NPH- • 1:21p, 11/5/24
AG
NPH- said:
Does anyone else want to reply to me? Feel like almost all of F16 is pointing this out now.
I think most on here are just frustrated with getting the same questions over and over again.

We tend to forget that not everybody keeps track of these threads at all times.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to jamieboy2014 • 1:26p, 11/5/24
AG
Maybe not all 10 of you need to reply
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 1:27p, 11/5/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Maybe not all 10 of you need to reply
Everyone replied at once. I for one typed mine out and then looked and 4 others had beaten me to the punch.

We're not on the phone coordinating this y'know.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 1:29p, 11/5/24
Barnyard96 said:

Fun and cool, gives you that good old American town vibe.
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Squadron7
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:31p, 11/5/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Barnyard96 said:

Fun and cool, gives you that good old American town vibe.

No illegal immigration hotels in Dixville Notch, I surmise.
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Toptierag2018
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1:38p, 11/5/24


Thoughts? Mark Halperin retweeted it.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 1:39p, 11/5/24
If he pulls Pennsylvania, it probably won't matter
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In reply to Squadron7 • 1:40p, 11/5/24
AG
Squadron7 said:
2023NCAggies said:
Barnyard96 said:

Fun and cool, gives you that good old American town vibe.

No illegal immigration hotels in Dixville Notch, I surmise.

Not yet
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Texas velvet maestro
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 1:42p, 11/5/24
Toptierag2018 said:


Thoughts? Mark Halperin retweeted it.
I know a number of women who are pro-choice but aren't single issue voters. Are Iowan women really such a monolith? Maybe they're voting for keeping their own public restrooms.
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IDaggie06
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 1:43p, 11/5/24
AG
Toptierag2018 said:


Thoughts? Mark Halperin retweeted it.
Lol riiiight, this guy has no clue what he is talking about. The early voting for women and men in Iowa was essentially identical to 2020. And he is only basing his post off early voting, nothing to do with today. Zero percent chance Trump lose Iowa

Edit to add: In the early voting Trump is barely winning this year where he was down 12% in 2020.

Selzer proved herself to be incompetent during that interview a couple days ago with Mark when she wasn't even able to understand crosstabs and asked what "R and D" mean..
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