#FL #EarlyVote 10/19. Dem lead in EV (VBM+IPEV) now is 64k. This day in 2020, it was 459k. Graph's peaking soon. This Dem lead will be gone soon after IPEV starts 10/21. Combined with the sure R lead in Election Day vote, Trump should win FL by 1M votes minimum. pic.twitter.com/28WI2oV5FR

— au ng (@athein1) October 19, 2024

Will the numbers be large enough to over come the democrats cheating in all the urban areas again. Seem to only take a water leak!

This is extremely unusual for AZ. Particularly this early anyway as Dems are usually leading comfortably now in returns

A special 43k Saturday ballot update. Including Pima 18k, Pinal 12k, Yavapai 11k, and Gila 2k. Great to see regular reporting from our rural counties

Total: 323k
🔵: 130k 🔴: 162k ⚫: 79k
Turnout: 8.6%
🔵: 10.4% 🔴: 10.5% ⚫: 5.1%

Adv 🔴+32k Ballots |🔴+0.1% TO

Link 👇 pic.twitter.com/iPTL1YvFo3

— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) October 19, 2024

AZ GOP flipped the registrations by over 100,000 in the state. Insane swing from 2020.

No Maricopa County data, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.

Wish we could vote early here.

It seems that there is a huge enthusiasm gap. That's going to be a serious problem for the Dems for a couple of reasons. It's going to seriously tax their GOTV getting higher propensity voters to the booth, which isn't good when you need those people to be hitting less frequent voters and shouldn't need it based on previous voters and it will force them to spend resources (not just money but most critically high level staff, surrogates, and regular GOTV staff out there. Also recognize how critical not getting teamsters and other major unions on board is here as in the past those unions (and especially Teamsters) have done a lot of grunt work. If that's a problem here (and I've suspected that for a while) then it will be rough for Team Blue. The other issue if there is a crash in Black turnout AND Trump pulls more of the black male vote (and all Black votes, but especially there) then states like NC, GA (which has been the strongest Sun Belt outside maybe (maybe) Nevada) and MI will be gone.

Watch carefully but I would bet that Kamala pulls resources from AZ and NC to redirect to PA, WI, MI and GA. Like maybe all but a couple of staffers at the field centers to take calls and hand out signs but everyone else on planes and in hotels for the last 2 weeks. Internal polling + IPEV will tell the tale. Last day to request ballots in AZ is the 25th. I'd watch for her to pull out of AZ on the 28th (quietly). Best guess in NC is that they will know by around the same time but may make a call earlier if the response isn't there. Especially if Clyburn looks at the numbers and say, yeah that's not happening, all the SC staff goes to GA.

Question: Internal polling always seems to be thought of as more accurate than external.

Why is that?

gggmann said:

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No Maricopa County data, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.

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It's not early votes cast, but here is the Maricopa voter registrations which have flipped to R majority since 2020.

ETA: I'm actually not sure if the the Rs flipped registration majority or just really added on to their lead.

I’m SO glad you asked!

Maricopa:
🟥: 1,037,355 (⬆️ 122,128 )
🟦: 868,929 (⬆️54,586 ) https://t.co/AxoUxzXMi8

— Hannah Toth (@HannahToth29) October 17, 2024

Squadron7 said:

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Question: Internal polling always seems to be thought of as more accurate than external.

Why is that?

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You pay for what you get, and the campaigns have money to spend.

Sunday will be the lowest volume day; not every county will be open, and those that are; most have reduced hours.

For example, DeKalb, Cobb, and Fulton will have a noon to 5 pm schedule.

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 20, 2024

My jaw dropped when I pulled this data.

I’m beginning to think Trump could actually come within 2-4 points in Virginia.

A 7.5-point collapse for Democrats in early vote margins even AFTER removing everyone who voted on Election Day in 2020 is simply catastrophic for Kamala…

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) October 20, 2024

NC Day 2 Early Voting Comparison:

2024 - 334477
🔴 - 117787 / 35.2% (+2.0)
🔵 - 111173 / 33.2%
🟡 - 104068 / 31.1%

2022 - 136873
🔵 - 53557 / 38.4% (+6.3)
🔴 - 43978 / 32.1%
🟡 - 40094 / 29.3%

2020 - 323185
🔵 - 130686 / 40.4% (+8.8)
🔴 - 102014 / 31.6%
🟡 - 89377 / 27.7%

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 19, 2024

Virginia Early vote Return 2020 vs 2024 (Projection)

2020
🔵60% (+28 )
🔴32%
🟡 7%
TOTAL: 1,804,460

2024
🔵52% (+13)
🔴39%
🟡9%
TOTAL: 919,126

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 19, 2024

Turnout in Clark has already exceeded 2020 turnout, more than 28,000 already. Will have totals and breakdowns later, if I can stay up that late (I'm old), otherwise I will update the blog in the AM. https://t.co/EyzaAP4awU

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 20, 2024

Republicans are not telling people to vote only on Election Day now and are encouraging early voting. I know the post about the data in Virginia showing they aren't cannibalizing election day votes, but what about elsewhere? Are we just seeing a shift to where we won't see as huge of a surge on election day?

This seems like good news

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6363502993112

4stringAg said:

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Elons millions are also going to on the ground election security measures from what I understand.

I also don't think the Dems have Zuckerbergs bucks to play around with this time which I think were a big factor in drop boxes and other insecurities

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Social media is not censoring this one. Google is the only blatant one so far

It's partially why MSM is. Falling miserably this election. They're Fing DEAD after this one

I wish Elon would give 25 million to each senate candidate. The guy in Michigan really needs it. Hovde and McCornmick. Lake has turning point. Cao I hope moves to a state he can win. Dude is a GD good candidate. San same with the Mexico candidate. Adam Laxhalt needs to run in Nevada again. Rant sorry

SwigAg11 said:

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AZ GOP flipped the registrations by over 100,000 in the state. Insane swing from 2020.

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Right now the GOP registration advantage in Arizona is around 300k

Maricopa county has 150k advantage for republicans.

Clark numbers are not posted on Clark site, but SOS has them. Big turnout, almost 30K.

Republicans on first day crushed Dems in Clark and elsewhere in early voting, lead by almost 2 to 1 statewide.

I'll combine with mail and update the blog shortly. pic.twitter.com/vYld3pclHV

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 20, 2024

From his blog:

Quote:

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It's late, blog mates, and it's been a long day, so I am going to do a quick post now with all the data. I will try to post a detailed chart every day with all of the information about votes cast, percentage of the electorate that has voted and is left and the partisan splits. It is a dense chart, and feel free to ignore it. I will post it at the end of every blog, and give you the highlights above it. To wit:
--We have no Clark mail yet, which almost surely will give the Democrats a big advantage in the biggest county. But for now, with every other county reporting., the Rs are ahead by 11,000 votes and 14 percentage points, 46-32. The Republicans won mail balloting by just a little (all those rurals offset a Democratic landslide in Washoe in mail) but by almost 2-to-1 in in-person voting, which was expected to happen (this was the pattern last cycle). When the Clark mail comes in, if it is not substantially to the Dems' advantage, that may be a warning beacon for them.
--Some of the rurals have pretty high early turnout when you combine mail and in-person. Nine of them are in double digits and a handful are approaching a fifth of their registered voters already. They may be cannibalizing in-person and Election Day voting, but it's too early to tell.

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Clark County numbers are apparently actually in now. Net 13K for team communists, not sure if that is good or not vs. expectations.

45D-26R, net ~13k for Ds

— Daniel Cowan (@danielscowan) October 20, 2024

gggmann said:

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No Maricopa County data, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.

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Yep, Maricopa Dominion machines are in pit row just waiting to come out.

People saying NV IPEV numbers too good to be true.

Are we on track for Trump +2 there, or will my state polls be too left again?

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) October 20, 2024

Is he factoring the first drop of Clark county data in those statements?

I believe so.

Suffice it to say that it is best to dispel the idea of a "firewall" in NV this year.

If there is one (not guaranteed), it won't be of any meaningful size. The combination of near 50/50 registration and Republicans getting out early this year means this will not look like…

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 20, 2024

No Firewall for Ds in NV (where it is a true term to use) means a likely loss in the state. No this is not wish casting or bias, it is just a product of the nature of the state (60-70% of total vote is early vote).

Don't take my word for it. @RalstonReports will provide his… https://t.co/wEeF8OBFe8

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 20, 2024

In the Halls of the Trumpen King

Clark County, NV Early Voting (10/19)
W/ Day/batch 1 comparisons:

Mail
2024: D+16.1
2022: D+23.4
2020: D+36.8

In-person
2024: R+18.7
2022: R+8.1
2020: D+7.2

— Garrett Herrin (@GarrettHerrin) October 20, 2024

I enjoy this thread. But, it makes me wonder where the truth lies in the numbers.
EV reports here show very positive results for GOP
But, at your own peril, take a look at surly, and they're full of the exact same enthusiasm, just for team blue.
They're expecting a MASSIVE Reagan level blowout of Trump in 3 weeks. The liberal insanity/arrogance on that page is wild. But, the numbers they seem to tout about women outpacing men and "firewalls" being insurmountable definitely makes me anxious about what's real and what's a biased cherry-picking of data

normalhorn said:

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I enjoy this thread. But, it makes me wonder where the truth lies in the numbers.
EV reports here show very positive results for GOP
But, at your own peril, take a look at surly, and they're full of the exact same enthusiasm, just for team blue.
They're expecting a MASSIVE Reagan level blowout of Trump in 3 weeks. The liberal insanity/arrogance on that page is wild. But, the numbers they seem to tout about women outpacing men and "firewalls" being insurmountable definitely makes me anxious about what's real and what's a biased cherry-picking of data

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I'm debating if I should subject myself to Surly after your comment. I'm curious how they could possibly spin the numbers. I guess the only thing that makes sense is if they assume the Republicans are just cannibalizing their day of voting to be early instead this year?

My $.02? Never, ever look at the Cloak Room. Once you DO look in it, you can't unsee the mess it'll make in your mind.
They take hive mind, throw away any rational thought, and put on a level of arrogance that I didn't think could be possible. They believe fully that every conservative is a racist, evil, uneducated piece of useless garbage. They can't fathom that ANYONE can be conservative and still a decent person

will25u said:

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MSNBC at an early voting location in Arizona:

"We did not find a single person who would audibly tell us they would vote for Kamala Harris." pic.twitter.com/gxBMqJKLaL

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 16, 2024

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That's Mojave County which is Lake Havasu not Maricopa.

DEMs are gonna get smoked in Arizona. Pray Lake can win

Democratic ballot returns in Arizona have collapsed.

By this time in 2020, Arizona 🔵Democrats had turned in roughly 369k ballots.

They turned in roughly 117,000 through yesterday.

So Dems are turning out a THIRD of what they were 4 years ago.

— Ben Larrabee, Father of the Year (@Ben_Larrabee) October 20, 2024

But comparing to Covid election is problematic in a vacuum.

Tonight's GA update is a small one; the first Sunday vote yielded a total of 42,044 in-person votes. Rolling into tomorrow, this is where we stand on the racial split in the state:

⚪White - 59.01% (-0.52%)
⚫Black - 27.71% (+0.29%)

In Georgia, we've never had 1.4 million…

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 21, 2024

Clark County, NV mail in ballots very telling.

Democrats are cannibalizing their high-propensity vote at a greater frequency than Republicans.

Republicans are doing a better job at getting low propensity voters than Democrats. pic.twitter.com/xS1KktFVoq

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) October 20, 2024

Right now, GOP early voting strength is coming from low propensity voters.

What that means if it continues: election DAY vote will not be impacted as much.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 20, 2024

Why would Florida be in play you dolt? Democrats are doing at least 8 points worse than they were in 2020. Mail is more red than 2022.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 20, 2024

Nevada and Arizona are going to Trump.

No way 😱

Nevada just saw a 25% shift from Democrat to Republican on day 1 of early voting 👀

2020
🔵 44% (+7)
🔴 37%
🟡 19%
27k Total

2024
🔴49% (+18)
🔵 31%
🟡 20%
30k Total

ABSOLUTE INSANITY!

— Matt Wallace (@MattWallace888) October 20, 2024