***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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3:51p, 10/18/24
AG
There was a time I recall, during this cycle, that New Hampshire was thought to be in play.

I wonder if that may not be a surprise state, as well.
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will25u
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3:56p, 10/18/24
Republicans are a lot better equipped to look for the steal this time around.
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Captn_Ag05
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3:56p, 10/18/24
AG
Trump just announced he is going to be in New Hampshire Oct 30.
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:58p, 10/18/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Trump just announced he is going to be in New Hampshire Oct 30.

Yeah, I'm really wondering if that state is sneaky in play. I think it could be.

Which could also possibly throw Maine in there, too.

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FTAG 2000
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4:05p, 10/18/24
AG
Or he could just be doing all these places to make Harris campaign have to react and play D.

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4:13p, 10/18/24
AG
The most recent NH polls (538,RCP, The Hill average) I can find shows Harris up there by 6-9 pts.

I wonder what it showed in 2020 before the election and what the actual results were?

6-9 seems way tight at this point for a New England state given Trump's history of massive under polling
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to 4 • 4:24p, 10/18/24
AG
4 said:
The most recent NH polls (538,RCP, The Hill average) I can find shows Harris up there by 6-9 pts.

I wonder what it showed in 2020 before the election and what the actual results were?

6-9 seems way tight at this point for a New England state given Trump's history of massive under polling


On this date in 2020, Biden was up 12% in polls. Election Day, he won by 7%, delta of 5%.

Most recent polling last week shows her up 6.8% there. Hmm.
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 4:25p, 10/18/24
AG
Thank you.

That's what I'm saying. I think it's a lot closer than people realize
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Prosperdick
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 4:29p, 10/18/24
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
4 said:
The most recent NH polls (538,RCP, The Hill average) I can find shows Harris up there by 6-9 pts.

I wonder what it showed in 2020 before the election and what the actual results were?

6-9 seems way tight at this point for a New England state given Trump's history of massive under polling


On this date in 2020, Biden was up 12% in polls. Election Day, he won by 7%, delta of 5%.

Most recent polling last week shows her up 6.8% there. Hmm.
And "Scranton Joe" resonated a LOT more with them than Kalifornia Kamala.
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4stringAg
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4:34p, 10/18/24
AG
Elons millions are also going to on the ground election security measures from what I understand.

I also don't think the Dems have Zuckerbergs bucks to play around with this time which I think were a big factor in drop boxes and other insecurities
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Prosperdick
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In reply to 4stringAg • 4:41p, 10/18/24
AG
4stringAg said:
Elons millions are also going to on the ground election security measures from what I understand.

I also don't think the Dems have Zuckerbergs bucks to play around with this time which I think were a big factor in drop boxes and other insecurities
Yeah I think you're right about the Zuck bucks although they still have a crap ton of money to play with so I don't that that's much of a factor except there aren't millions of MIB's floating around this time.

I knew Elon had contributed 75 million (probably from under his couch cushions) but didn't know it was directed to election security, that's excellent news.
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LMCane
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In reply to 4 • 5:00p, 10/18/24
4 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Trump just announced he is going to be in New Hampshire Oct 30.

Yeah, I'm really wondering if that state is sneaky in play. I think it could be.

Which could also possibly throw Maine in there, too.


Maine splits their electoral votes- the point would be to take all of them rather than just 2 or 3
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LMCane
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5:01p, 10/18/24
Twitters saying the GOP is ahead in early voting in Nevada right now.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to 4stringAg • 5:03p, 10/18/24
AG
4stringAg said:
Elons millions are also going to on the ground election security measures from what I understand.

I also don't think the Dems have Zuckerbergs bucks to play around with this time which I think were a big factor in drop boxes and other insecurities
CTCL (Zuck's BS) is still around.

They are involved in some stuff in Montana that I saw, though it seemed the native Montanans were pushing back.

Will have to see if I can find that article again, it's (shockingly) nowhere to be found on a google search.

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will25u
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5:22p, 10/18/24

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Captn_Ag05
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5:22p, 10/18/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:23p, 10/18/24
AG
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will25u
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5:30p, 10/18/24
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to will25u • 5:43p, 10/18/24
AG
will25u said:


Someone find the Ralston tweets. He ok or melting? That will tell the tale.
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In reply to LMCane • 6:23p, 10/18/24
AG
LMCane said:
4 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Trump just announced he is going to be in New Hampshire Oct 30.

Yeah, I'm really wondering if that state is sneaky in play. I think it could be.

Which could also possibly throw Maine in there, too.


Maine splits their electoral votes- the point would be to take all of them rather than just 2 or 3

Yes, I'm aware
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SuhrThang
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6:41p, 10/18/24
If NH is in play maybe it's because illegals are easier to spot in that cold, mostly caucasion state. No sarcasm intended.
“A drunkard’s dream if I ever did see one”
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Captn_Ag05
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7:13p, 10/18/24
AG
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will25u
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7:29p, 10/18/24

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Captn_Ag05
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12:20a, 10/19/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 3:10a, 10/19/24
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
will25u said:


Someone find the Ralston tweets. He ok or melting? That will tell the tale.
Clark numbers aren't really in yet. He said his crystal ball is broken this year which is a tacit acknowledgment the state seems to have shifted more red.

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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:43a, 10/19/24
AG
The independent vote in NC appears to be coming from the red counties more-so than in the past:

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nortex97
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7:49a, 10/19/24
AG




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will25u
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8:05a, 10/19/24
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will25u
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8:23a, 10/19/24
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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 8:32a, 10/19/24
AG
Rest of that post:
Quote:
It is not R overperformance (R cannibalization of the Early Vote), it is D UNDERPERFORMANCE that is driving the changes in the early vote.

Rs only increased their volume of votes Day to Day by 15,773 (total within normal limits of population and registration gains, IMO). Ds LOST 19,513 voters.

The political/election terminology for underperformance is Turnout Problems.

Thanks to @aggou for this data!
From the thread:


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Bulldog73
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In reply to will25u • 10:22a, 10/19/24
AG
will25u said:
Glad to see that in the breakdown by sex, (men, women and other categories), that "other" is decreased in 2024. Probably not a demographic that is going to vote for Trump
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LMCane
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11:54a, 10/19/24
saw on the Twitters that North Carolina just moved to a GOP lead in early voting.

not sure that is verified but if true would be huge.
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aggiehawg
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12:30p, 10/19/24
AG
Quote:
The Republican National Committee (RNC) is focusing on "low propensity voters," and the turnout is already "dramatically higher" than in the past, RNC Chairman Michael Whatley said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily.

"We are focused on low propensity voters. That is really, truly the push. And we are combining door knocks with phone calls with direct mail with digital communication, emails, texts," he said, describing a low propensity voter as "somebody who is very likely to vote for Donald Trump if they vote, but they haven't voted in two years or four years or six years."

"And the Democrats are going to identify somebody the same kind of way, but it really, truly is … not a very regular voter. And so you know, what we're seeing in our first initial assessments out of Georgia, North Carolina, out of Arizona, out of Pennsylvania, is that we're having a really good response rate from the low propensity voters," he revealed.
LINK
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Captn_Ag05
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1:36p, 10/19/24
AG
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5:21p, 10/19/24
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