***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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1836er
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:53p, 11/2/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:



I'm sorry, but that looks like Harris +3 to me.
LOL
Vance in '28
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 7:59p, 11/2/24
outofstateaggie said:
Rockdoc said:
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.


I hope so. We said the same thing about Biden.


I think Covid fear determined that more than anything. We forget how terrified so many people were.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 8:01p, 11/2/24
AG
Don't forget George Floyd and BLM. It drove black turnout to a crazy level.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 8:19p, 11/2/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
samurai_science said:
Any word on Iowa?



I'm sorry, but that looks like Harris +3 to me.


Interested in your logic. If you are figuring a 12 point swing in EV, wouldn't you also figure something similar for Election Day voting as well?
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coolerguy12
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 8:30p, 11/2/24
AG
Sarcasm…
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aezmvp
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 8:32p, 11/2/24
Not necessarily. You could be moving people that vote on election day to early vote aka cannibalization,
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smstork1007
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In reply to samurai_science • 8:46p, 11/2/24
AG
samurai_science said:
Any word on Iowa?



Not exactly what you're looking for, but not a whole lot out there either.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to aezmvp • 8:47p, 11/2/24
aezmvp said:
Not necessarily. You could be moving people that vote on election day to early vote aka cannibalization,

Wrong.

240k early votes for Republicans in 2024. There were 330k early votes for Republicans in 2020.

So they aren't overperforming, democrats ARENT SHOWING UP. It is evident everywhere.
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outofstateaggie
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8:47p, 11/2/24
AG
"Mail deluge"

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4stringAg
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8:50p, 11/2/24
AG
Why would the mail deluge just now be happening and not before? Some union told to vote D?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to 4stringAg • 8:59p, 11/2/24
In the past the Culinary Union have been told to try to get their ballots in on a certain day. My guess is a lot of them got dropped off on friday.
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will25u
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10:27p, 11/2/24
I can't deal with the moaning and groaning over on the Polls thread.

You get one outlier poll, and the world is coming to an end.

Anyway... Looking like ANOTHER good day of actual votes.

Let's finish strong people!

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outofstateaggie
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10:57p, 11/2/24
AG


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mslags97
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In reply to BusterAg • 11:13p, 11/2/24
AG
BusterAg said:
torrid said:
A woman in NJ wearing a MAGA T-shirt was told she could not vote in that clothing, so she took off the shirt and voted in her bra.

I will not post pictures, and Google at your own peril.
Good for her.

But, that is election law. Biden T-shirt would probably be turned away as well.


Nobody was arguing that. Just pointing out that there are first time voters coming out in droves for Trump.
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BusterAg
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In reply to mslags97 • 1:56a, 11/3/24
nortex97
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3:27a, 11/3/24
AG
Not really early voting but a pollster studying the polls/turnout thus far commenting on the rust belts;





This implies, as stated, that the real cannibalization happening broadly is being done by Dems with their base/most frequent voters;


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jr15aggie
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8:05a, 11/3/24
AG
It's almost as if the "rules" of 2020 allowed for a bunch of ballot harvesting shenanigans and now the EV data suggests that Dems, back to reality, can't get close to the same turnout.

Trump got a record number of votes too, so will be interesting to see if he matches vote totals from 2020 or if R turnout was also a bit aided by Covid.
Kamala ain't getting anywhere near 81 mil, that's for dang sure!
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nortex97
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8:17a, 11/3/24
AG
Still some shenanigans on mail in ballots up to 4 days after the election, but those are not 'expected' to be significant.



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aggiehawg
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8:27a, 11/3/24
AG
FWIW:



In person early voting has surpassed mail in ballots? In New Jersey? Can't rule out a ton of mail ballots suddenly arriving on election day but it will certainly be closer than past cycles.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:35a, 11/3/24
AG
I'm assuming that NJ skews Dem on ED voting?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 8:41a, 11/3/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
I'm assuming that NJ skews Dem on ED voting?
It is dominant Dem nearly everyday, across all types of voting. They will occasionally elect a GOP governor but other than that, statewide offices are predominantly Dem.

So to me at this point, I don't expect a Trump win in NJ but he's banking a lot of votes towards the popular vote numbers from an unexpected source considering past cycles over the decades.
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nortex97
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8:44a, 11/3/24
AG
The nuances of this post will be lost on some TDS-sufferers, but it's great to me that PA is so far red Kamala has to fantasize about a good Election Day in NC, given the numbers there:

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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:10a, 11/3/24
AG
I've been following along on her posts, and they seem very sound. And yes, you need to look at that post and others she's made as Harris's best path forward on needing the fewest ED votes to win (I.e. the lowest raw vote counts).

With that map, NV becomes important for Trump because then he could lose NC and still win.
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nortex97
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 9:17a, 11/3/24
AG
Agreed. Here's Pruser's take on the same data/state:



Quote:
Others - 1,524,456
Republicans - 1,478,746
Democrats - 1,437,281

Others won the Saturday vote, Democrats came in second, and Republicans finished third. Absentee votes will roll in over the next three days, tightening the final EV margin a touch.

41,465 raw vote lead (over Democrats)
+0.9% current electorate (over Democrats)

The comparison vs. 2020 shows that the total number of early voters in both is pretty close, and the total # of white early voters is nearly identical. The big difference, of course, is that, like GA, there is a couple of points drop in the black share of the vote.

The female/male margin vs. 2020 is also identical at 10.5%.

What will the final ~1 million voters in NC look like? Well, a lot like this, but like GA, we'll likely see an ever-so-slightly whiter, more Republican, and more male vote than the first 4.44 million voters.

The final expected electorate in NC remains R+1 - R+3.
Basically a similar conclusion. But I am heartened that the male/female split finished up identical vs. 2020. The drop in black voters is also good (just due to math, not a racial intent here) for Trump in all of the states that matter (even if the projections of him getting to around 20 percent of the black vote are true, that's still a group he benefits from not strongly over-performing in turnout).
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aggiehawg
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9:44a, 11/3/24
AG
Quote:
Battleground races in New York could decide the balance of power in the House. In 2022, New York Republican victories enabled the GOP to clench control of the chamber. If Republicans defeat Democrats in 2024 and retain their seats, the party will have a strong chance of retaining a House majority.

All GOP-targeted districts have so far outperformed their historical 2022 turnout margins by as much as 50 percent, sources familiar with early vote data told Breitbart News. The districts reaching the 50 percent threshold are 4, 17, 18, and 19.

Sources tell Breitbart News the positive turnout is driven by support for former President Donald Trump and House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik's (R-NY) ground game operation.
Quote:
Stefanik's ground game during the 2022 midterms is widely credited for handing Republicans control of the House and preventing the Biden-Harris administration from passing more legislation to fuel inflation and enact amnesty measures.

"For the first time, New York is possibly in play for the presidential race and will certainly determine the House Majority," Stefanik told Breitbart News:
LINK

GOP has a deep bench going forward.

Dems have no bench other than maybe Governor Shapiro in PA.
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aggiehawg
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10:46a, 11/3/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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1:06p, 11/3/24
AG
Need to click to read the entire thing.

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harge57
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:10p, 11/3/24
AG
So NC is Kamala's "best chance" to win and the Republicans have a bigger lead than they ever have going into election day?

Sounds good to me.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to harge57 • 1:12p, 11/3/24
AG
harge57 said:
So NC is Kamala's "best chance" to win and the Republicans have a bigger lead than they ever have going into election day?

Sounds good to me.
Could have been written a bit more clearly but yes I think that's what it says.
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aggiehawg
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1:17p, 11/3/24
AG


Did Elon send his people in?
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aggiehawg
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1:25p, 11/3/24
AG
Am I reading this wrong? Doesn't look all that great to me. Some help? PA early voting compiled by the U of FLA Election Lab.

LINK
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:27p, 11/3/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Am I reading this wrong? Doesn't look all that great to me. Some help? PA early voting compiled by the U of FLA Election Lab.

LINK
I'm only repeating what I've gathered so far. These numbers are significantly better for GOP than prior elections. Its been mentioned on here the GOP needs to get to 30% of the early vote to feel really good about election day turnout, and they are around 33%.

So assuming the GOP has normal turnout on Tuesday, they are in good shape.
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4stringAg
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1:28p, 11/3/24
AG
NC makes me nervous because of the huge independent turnout. Hopefully those lean Trump. It would be a bitter pill if she won that state after the western part got questionable help from the feds during the hurricane fallout
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nortex97
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1:28p, 11/3/24
AG


Earlyvotedata has a bunch of predictions/calls on X as to winners (POTUS and senate), based on EV data:



Again, trends:


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Z3phyr
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:31p, 11/3/24
My understanding is that number is only mail in (so expected to be heavily blue) so in person early and election day will be more red. Now comparing the numbers from covid to estimate turnout breakdown is hard so hopefully that 30% number was more from polling on how people were expecting to vote
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