***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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will25u
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5:28p, 10/19/24
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sonnysixkiller
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5:35p, 10/19/24
AG
Will the numbers be large enough to over come the democrats cheating in all the urban areas again. Seem to only take a water leak!
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MarkTwain
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6:27p, 10/19/24
This is extremely unusual for AZ. Particularly this early anyway as Dems are usually leading comfortably now in returns

β€œNever argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience" - Mark Twain
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SwigAg11
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In reply to MarkTwain • 6:40p, 10/19/24
AG
AZ GOP flipped the registrations by over 100,000 in the state. Insane swing from 2020.
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gggmann
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In reply to MarkTwain • 6:54p, 10/19/24
AG
No Maricopa County data, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.
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Tanya 93
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6:58p, 10/19/24
Wish we could vote early here.
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aezmvp
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7:06p, 10/19/24
It seems that there is a huge enthusiasm gap. That's going to be a serious problem for the Dems for a couple of reasons. It's going to seriously tax their GOTV getting higher propensity voters to the booth, which isn't good when you need those people to be hitting less frequent voters and shouldn't need it based on previous voters and it will force them to spend resources (not just money but most critically high level staff, surrogates, and regular GOTV staff out there. Also recognize how critical not getting teamsters and other major unions on board is here as in the past those unions (and especially Teamsters) have done a lot of grunt work. If that's a problem here (and I've suspected that for a while) then it will be rough for Team Blue. The other issue if there is a crash in Black turnout AND Trump pulls more of the black male vote (and all Black votes, but especially there) then states like NC, GA (which has been the strongest Sun Belt outside maybe (maybe) Nevada) and MI will be gone.

Watch carefully but I would bet that Kamala pulls resources from AZ and NC to redirect to PA, WI, MI and GA. Like maybe all but a couple of staffers at the field centers to take calls and hand out signs but everyone else on planes and in hotels for the last 2 weeks. Internal polling + IPEV will tell the tale. Last day to request ballots in AZ is the 25th. I'd watch for her to pull out of AZ on the 28th (quietly). Best guess in NC is that they will know by around the same time but may make a call earlier if the response isn't there. Especially if Clyburn looks at the numbers and say, yeah that's not happening, all the SC staff goes to GA.
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Squadron7
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7:17p, 10/19/24
AG
Question: Internal polling always seems to be thought of as more accurate than external.

Why is that?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to gggmann • 7:18p, 10/19/24
AG
gggmann said:
No Maricopa County data, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.

It's not early votes cast, but here is the Maricopa voter registrations which have flipped to R majority since 2020.

ETA: I'm actually not sure if the the Rs flipped registration majority or just really added on to their lead.

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Squadron7 • 7:19p, 10/19/24
AG
Squadron7 said:
Question: Internal polling always seems to be thought of as more accurate than external.

Why is that?

You pay for what you get, and the campaigns have money to spend.
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will25u
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7:45p, 10/19/24
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will25u
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8:00p, 10/19/24
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MarkTwain
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9:00p, 10/19/24
β€œNever argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience" - Mark Twain
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MarkTwain
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9:06p, 10/19/24
β€œNever argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience" - Mark Twain
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outofstateaggie
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10:53p, 10/19/24
AG
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AtticusMatlock
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10:54p, 10/19/24
Republicans are not telling people to vote only on Election Day now and are encouraging early voting. I know the post about the data in Virginia showing they aren't cannibalizing election day votes, but what about elsewhere? Are we just seeing a shift to where we won't see as huge of a surge on election day?
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2023NCAggies
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11:26p, 10/19/24
This seems like good news

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6363502993112
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to 4stringAg • 11:44p, 10/19/24
4stringAg said:
Elons millions are also going to on the ground election security measures from what I understand.

I also don't think the Dems have Zuckerbergs bucks to play around with this time which I think were a big factor in drop boxes and other insecurities


Social media is not censoring this one. Google is the only blatant one so far

It's partially why MSM is. Falling miserably this election. They're Fing DEAD after this one

I wish Elon would give 25 million to each senate candidate. The guy in Michigan really needs it. Hovde and McCornmick. Lake has turning point. Cao I hope moves to a state he can win. Dude is a GD good candidate. San same with the Mexico candidate. Adam Laxhalt needs to run in Nevada again. Rant sorry
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 4:43a, 10/20/24
SwigAg11 said:
AZ GOP flipped the registrations by over 100,000 in the state. Insane swing from 2020.


Right now the GOP registration advantage in Arizona is around 300k

Maricopa county has 150k advantage for republicans.
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nortex97
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 5:35a, 10/20/24
AG


From his blog:
Quote:
It's late, blog mates, and it's been a long day, so I am going to do a quick post now with all the data. I will try to post a detailed chart every day with all of the information about votes cast, percentage of the electorate that has voted and is left and the partisan splits. It is a dense chart, and feel free to ignore it. I will post it at the end of every blog, and give you the highlights above it. To wit:
--We have no Clark mail yet, which almost surely will give the Democrats a big advantage in the biggest county. But for now, with every other county reporting., the Rs are ahead by 11,000 votes and 14 percentage points, 46-32. The Republicans won mail balloting by just a little (all those rurals offset a Democratic landslide in Washoe in mail) but by almost 2-to-1 in in-person voting, which was expected to happen (this was the pattern last cycle). When the Clark mail comes in, if it is not substantially to the Dems' advantage, that may be a warning beacon for them.
--Some of the rurals have pretty high early turnout when you combine mail and in-person. Nine of them are in double digits and a handful are approaching a fifth of their registered voters already. They may be cannibalizing in-person and Election Day voting, but it's too early to tell.
Clark County numbers are apparently actually in now. Net 13K for team communists, not sure if that is good or not vs. expectations.

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ts5641
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In reply to gggmann • 7:28a, 10/20/24
gggmann said:
No Maricopa County data, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.
Yep, Maricopa Dominion machines are in pit row just waiting to come out.
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nortex97
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7:40a, 10/20/24
AG
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:43a, 10/20/24
AG
Is he factoring the first drop of Clark county data in those statements?
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nortex97
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 9:19a, 10/20/24
AG
I believe so.



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Quo Vadis?
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9:35a, 10/20/24
In the Halls of the Trumpen King

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normalhorn
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9:36a, 10/20/24
I enjoy this thread. But, it makes me wonder where the truth lies in the numbers.
EV reports here show very positive results for GOP
But, at your own peril, take a look at surly, and they're full of the exact same enthusiasm, just for team blue.
They're expecting a MASSIVE Reagan level blowout of Trump in 3 weeks. The liberal insanity/arrogance on that page is wild. But, the numbers they seem to tout about women outpacing men and "firewalls" being insurmountable definitely makes me anxious about what's real and what's a biased cherry-picking of data
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
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SwigAg11
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In reply to normalhorn • 10:20a, 10/20/24
AG
normalhorn said:
I enjoy this thread. But, it makes me wonder where the truth lies in the numbers.
EV reports here show very positive results for GOP
But, at your own peril, take a look at surly, and they're full of the exact same enthusiasm, just for team blue.
They're expecting a MASSIVE Reagan level blowout of Trump in 3 weeks. The liberal insanity/arrogance on that page is wild. But, the numbers they seem to tout about women outpacing men and "firewalls" being insurmountable definitely makes me anxious about what's real and what's a biased cherry-picking of data

I'm debating if I should subject myself to Surly after your comment. I'm curious how they could possibly spin the numbers. I guess the only thing that makes sense is if they assume the Republicans are just cannibalizing their day of voting to be early instead this year?
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normalhorn
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 10:41a, 10/20/24
My $.02? Never, ever look at the Cloak Room. Once you DO look in it, you can't unsee the mess it'll make in your mind.
They take hive mind, throw away any rational thought, and put on a level of arrogance that I didn't think could be possible. They believe fully that every conservative is a racist, evil, uneducated piece of useless garbage. They can't fathom that ANYONE can be conservative and still a decent person
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
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jja79
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In reply to will25u • 12:39p, 10/20/24
AG
will25u said:


That's Mojave County which is Lake Havasu not Maricopa.
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2023NCAggies
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5:16p, 10/20/24
DEMs are gonna get smoked in Arizona. Pray Lake can win

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nortex97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:12p, 10/20/24
AG
But comparing to Covid election is problematic in a vacuum.
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will25u
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9:50p, 10/20/24
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will25u
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9:53p, 10/20/24

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will25u
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10:01p, 10/20/24
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2023NCAggies
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8:14a, 10/21/24
Nevada and Arizona are going to Trump.

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