***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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mslags97
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In reply to rononeill • 10:12a
AG
rononeill said:
So all of this early voting analysis y'all are posting is pretty favorable. But this IS Texags and, let's be honest, the smart people on here tracking this stuff are generally conservatively oriented so MAY have biased sources. Are there any left leaning analyses saying the same data is good for the Dems? I'm just scared of getting blindsided Tuesday night...


Most of the pollsters and numbers are still from left-leaning sources.
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SwigAg11
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10:46a
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 10:51a
AG
Ruffini is pretty well respected in this field.
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SwigAg11
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10:52a
AG
Have to be careful interpreting what she means here. Basically, Trump's margins are much higher in WI/PA (more in the 800,000 range) compared to NC/GA (400,000 range). In other words, WI/PA are quickly getting out of reach for Harris, and it makes more mathematical sense to go after NC/GA due to needing half the raw vote counts.

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JDUB08AG
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10:52a
AG
That suburban Philly number is +85k for the GOP alone
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RGLAG85
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 11:07a
AG
JDUB08AG said:
That suburban Philly number is +85k for the GOP alone
Thanks for the info.
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Toptierag2018
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:09a
SwigAg11 said:
Have to be careful interpreting what she means here. Basically, Trump's margins are much higher in WI/PA (more in the 800,000 range) compared to NC/GA (400,000 range). In other words, WI/PA are quickly getting out of reach for Harris, and it makes more mathematical sense to go after NC/GA due to needing half the raw vote counts.



Well that's a great sign for Trump because he's going to win Georgia
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:11a
AG
She's not winning NC, from everything I have seen. Further, I don't see it even being that close. Trump wins that state easily.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:17a
AG
I completely agree with you, and your comments exactly lead into the point she is making - Kamala's best path forward mathematically is to get NC/GA.

Edit: This aligns with Halperin's comments last night that party insiders on both sides have said they would be shocked if Harris won WI.
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Philip J Fry
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11:19a
AG
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events

Or…maybe it's thst he's campaigning in north NC that's only 40 minutes from the VA border so it acts as a 2 for 1.
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mslags97
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11:21a
AG
I thought she had pulled all of her money and ads from NC and shifted that to MI and PA?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 11:22a
AG
Philip J Fry said:
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events

Or…maybe it's thst he's campaigning in north NC that's only 40 minutes from the VA border so it acts as a 2 for 1.
One of his NC stops today is close to the VA border; the other is on the other side of the state to the south.

Edit: I should have read his event list all the way. His Sunday/Monday NC rallies are all in the interior of the state.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:28a
AG
SwigAg11 said:
I completely agree with you, and your comments exactly lead into the point she is making - Kamala's best path forward mathematically is to get NC/GA.

Edit: This aligns with Halperin's comments last night that party insiders on both sides have said they would be shocked if Harris won WI.
I made the mistake of watching Halperin's evening stream last night. He had Jonathan Alter on the entire stream. Alter did nothing but trash talk Trump. To his credit, Halperin was trying to get him to tone it down but Alter just ignored him and talked over him constantly. It was a pretty disgusting. Alter defended the media taking Trump out of context on the warhawk Liz Cheney, claiming it was Trump's fault because of his "violent rhetoric."

Halperin, again to his credit, did say he found the media distorting Trump's words disgusting for journalism. Alter responded that since he was an "opinion journalist" he didn't need to be factual, ever.
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Philip J Fry
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11:30a
AG
I'm just saying, claiming he's solely focused on NC is wrong.

10 events.

VA: 1
NC/VA : 1
NC: 3
PA:3
GA:1
MI:1

That should tell you where his team thinks the path is.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to mslags97 • 11:42a
AG
mslags97 said:
I thought she had pulled all of her money and ads from NC and shifted that to MI and PA?


She didn't. That was a Trump narrative started by a Breitbart article. Sort of like the lefts narratives that Trump is exhausted or that no one goes to his rallies anymore. Campaigns always play these games. She will be in NC again this weekend.

In NC, independent/third party now lead Republicans and Democrats in early voting. I think that has made it difficult for either campaign to get a good feel for how it's actually going there.

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MelvinUdall
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:45a
In fairness, she dumped in $2.7 million in for ad buys, then the next day pulled out $2 million, so she is still has ads but far less than the $2.7 million she initially dumped in.
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SwigAg11
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11:47a
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:54a
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:56a
AG
Clark County? That's all union based then. Members are being contacted and forced to fill out ballots. as the Trafalgar pollster told Bill O'Reilly always happens.
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Waffledynamics
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12:00p
AG
Interesting to see the perspective from the other side Re: Nevada:



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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 12:18p
Toptierag2018 said:
SwigAg11 said:
Have to be careful interpreting what she means here. Basically, Trump's margins are much higher in WI/PA (more in the 800,000 range) compared to NC/GA (400,000 range). In other words, WI/PA are quickly getting out of reach for Harris, and it makes more mathematical sense to go after NC/GA due to needing half the raw vote counts.



Well that's a great sign for Trump because he's going to win Georgia


That's a pretty wild map
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:21p
AG
Most of the pollsters posted have data to follow up their reasoning, may not be the most accurate but at least they are trying to prove their point. Swann Marcus is a hardcore leftist Bernie Bro and Biden lover that follows the young Turks. He comes off as someone that lives in his parents basement trying to find social media post to fight about.

He has a post where he thinks Harris will get over 330 and says it has been this way for months. The only people voting for Trump are betas. Yeah not a pollster by any means
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:22p
AG
I saw plenty of posts on X that refuted everything he claims; his numbers and claims don't line up.

I can try to find them.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:22p
AG
Thanks. Was wondering where that guy came from.
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Toptierag2018
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:58p
Philip J Fry said:
I'm just saying, claiming he's solely focused on NC is wrong.

10 events.

VA: 1
NC/VA : 1
NC: 3
PA:3
GA:1
MI:1

That should tell you where his team thinks the path is.


Yup, Wisconsin is in good shape so they want to make sure they lock down NC, GA, & PA.
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backintexas2013
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:03p
AG
That person isn't showing any stats. He is just talking about feel and what he thinks will happen.
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newbie11
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1:09p
The reason I think trump will win is because a "friend" of mine who is an extreme liberal in DC, works for a lib think tank, has been posting a lot of early voting data on his fb page. His interpretations of the data seem desperate to me. That's as reliable as it gets imo.
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outofstateaggie
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1:10p
AG


Freaking mail in.
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samurai_science
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In reply to newbie11 • 1:12p
newbie11 said:
The reason I think trump will win is because a "friend" of mine who is an extreme liberal in DC, works for a lib think tank, has been posting a lot of early voting data on his fb page. His interpretations of the data seem desperate to me. That's as reliable as it gets imo.
My condolences
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Ryan the Temp
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:12p
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..
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nortex97
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1:13p
AG
Yet more evidence as to Dem panic in minority/urban turnout;

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samurai_science
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In reply to Ryan the Temp • 1:14p
Ryan the Temp said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..
Citation needed as usual with your posts
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Ryan the Temp • 1:18p
AG
Ryan the Temp said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..
Rs are still EV'ing at similar numbers as 2020 and more so by mail in certain states like NV and PA. Do you have any data to back up your statement?

Edit: The Trump campaign has made a HUGE push this time to vote early and for everyone to get their votes banked by ED.
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Squadron7
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 1:21p
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Ryan the Temp said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..
Rs are still EV'ing at similar numbers as 2020 and more so by mail in certain states like NV and PA. Do you have any data to back up your statement?

He's on a roll.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Ryan the Temp • 1:21p
AG
Ryan the Temp said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..
It is actually a significant increase in mail-in ballots for Republicans compared to prior cycles.
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