***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:36p, 10/31/24
aezmvp said:
Men have a tendency to vote on Election Day for whatever reason. Those numbers will come down and are a full point lower than 2020. Additionally the number of married women is up like 5%+ over 2020. That should mitigate it but yes, Dems are putting big stock into the female numbers and they are somewhat worrisome.
Men are lazy with stuff that can be put off and are more irresponsible than women, so they tend to vote more.

I am that way, but I manage to vote every election
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Silvertaps
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2:49p, 10/31/24
AG
I've always voted on election day, and I really have no explanation why. I've just had no reason to do it earlier as lines have never been an issue.
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will25u
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9:49p, 10/31/24
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Captn_Ag05
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11:23p, 10/31/24
AG
Republicans gained again in early voting in Nevada today. Tomorrow is the last day of in-person voting and then it is just mail and Tuesday's vote (which should be several points R). Increasingly having a hard time seeing how Trump doesn't win Nevada.

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aezmvp
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:26p, 10/31/24
There is a reason Ralstons X feed has been increasingly witchy over the last 3 days.
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IDaggie06
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11:32p, 10/31/24
AG
I've become somewhat confident in Trumps odds for Nevada but as we all know, it's a rare situation where Nevada presidential race will actually matter. It's all coming down to PA or Wisconsin.
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nortex97
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 4:26a, 11/1/24
AG
You're probably right but the net trend of early voting is very favorable to republicans across the board, and not just in those states that 'matter' but can be indexed in shifts in blue and red states too (that won't flip but a significant push toward the red direction):



And as we wrap up mail/early voting we can also extrapolate to missing voters on Election Day propensity for the two sides:




Another example (please click thru the thread below, a few posts long) for an explanation why even if you accept a poll such as Marist showing Harris up 2, it can easily be calculated/extracted on the basis of the early vote turnout and remaining voters that Trump will/should win PA when factoring in the existing data;


And I just don't buy into the gender gap panic theory about early voting. That's trying to read the entrails too much. Similarly, it's not a workable theory that 2020 can be discarded now as a comparator to this cycle's early voting data good news for the GOP: context always matters.

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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:25a, 11/1/24
Keep voting Republicans! Pour it on!!
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nortex97
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7:28a, 11/1/24
AG
More on PA from a guy/gal who called it for Trump 3 days ago:

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CS78
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:10a, 11/1/24
Has anyone considered what percentage of Republican election day voters die every four years? Even if party numbers stay the same, they are likely being replaced with younger (more likely to early vote) voters. Obviously not a huge number but possibly significant?
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harge57
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In reply to CS78 • 8:36a, 11/1/24
AG
CS78 said:
Has anyone considered what percentage of Republican election day voters die every four years? Even if party numbers stay the same, they are likely being replaced with younger (more likely to early vote) voters. Obviously not a huge number but possibly significant?


Even worse than not voting on election day, they start voting democrat.
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aezmvp
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:37a, 11/1/24
Yeah I'm following the map and the county by county breakdown is great. The biggest piece is getting our ED out. I'd knock off 2% from the gains from EV to ED on that map due to cannibalization but still excellent. If Trump really has doubled his support in the AA community going from either 7-12% to 15-20% then we'll see a blood bath. Not sure that will carry down ballot but it might help McCormick get over the top. Was happy to see some estimates of the senate get to 54-46 today.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 8:49a, 11/1/24
IDaggie06 said:
I've become somewhat confident in Trumps odds for Nevada but as we all know, it's a rare situation where Nevada presidential race will actually matter. It's all coming down to PA or Wisconsin.


Nevada is really important if he wins NH
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Captn_Ag05
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9:22a, 11/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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9:24a, 11/1/24
AG
In NC, "others" outvoted Republicans and Democrats yesterday and may be on pace to be the top voting group in early voting by the time it closes Saturday. Republicans are now outvoting Dems by around 50k.

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Captn_Ag05
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10:57a, 11/1/24
AG
In Florida, Republicans just crossed over the 800,000 voter advantage margin in votes cast and continue to turn out at a higher rate than Democrats. Election day should be several points red. Florida is on pace for a million plus margin for Trump.

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:00a, 11/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
In Florida, Republicans just crossed over the 800,000 voter advantage margin in votes cast and continue to turn out at a higher rate than Democrats. Election day should be several points red. Florida is on pace for a million plus margin for Trump.


Do we have any idea on the possible breakdown of the FL independents?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:06a, 11/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:07a, 11/1/24
AG
1-2 point difference in either direction. Largely won't move the margin for either.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:15p, 11/1/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
1-2 point difference in either direction. Largely won't move the margin for either.

Keep pouring it on Reps! I would love Trump 15+ in FL!
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tallgrant
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1:00p, 11/1/24
Pruser has about the most even-handed take I've seen on the mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania. I think it's slightly better news for the Republicans, but with mail-in voting being so new plus the first time they had it being Covid it's really hard to see what is going on.
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Thunderstruck xx
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:00p, 11/1/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


This doesn't seem good for PA going to Trump. Is there any hope?
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aggiehawg
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1:03p, 11/1/24
AG
I am behind on today's People's Pundit stream but Baris just said there are over 380,000 low propensity voters (2 or fewer past elections) that have early voted in Michigan.
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txags92
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In reply to Thunderstruck xx • 1:05p, 11/1/24
AG
Thunderstruck xx said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


This doesn't seem good for PA going to Trump. Is there any hope?
The hope stems from traditional patterns of Rs showing up much larger on ED than they do in EV. Rs have infrequent or first time voters making a big push in their EV numbers and the D margin now is about 1/2 of what it was in 2020, while Biden only won 2020 by about 80k. So having a D lead of 400-500k less than in 2020 would seem to be a good sign, as is the low turnout in Philly. Only time will tell if ED patterns hold the same.
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tallgrant
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1:07p, 11/1/24
There's tons of hope. The Republicans were outvoted by 1.4 million votes in 2020, and by 700K in 2022. So this is narrowing that gap to 400k between parties (my guess is Indies go about 70-30 Dem in early votes, and since they're tracking for a little over 200K Id' guess the final difference is about 450k ), and as long as the Republicans aren't just pulling away from their election day vote (where they've traditionally outvoted the Democrats, and get more Independents) they can win. Having the gap going into election day is probably good news for the Republicans.

But the voting patterns aren't terribly helpful because Pennsylvania just started doing mail-in balloting (which all their early voting in person is tied to). We effectively have the Presidential election with Covid, plus the 2022 midterm to compare this against. If the Democrats don't show up in big numbers in election day, they're in a huge heap of trouble. But back in 2016 they did 100% of voting on election day, so who knows how well their machine is set up this year?

And on the Republican side, the question that's been all over this thread is whether they're mobilizing new votes vs. just getting what would otherwise be an election day vote.

A whole lot of things could happen here.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Ryan the Temp • 1:13p, 11/1/24
AG
Republicans are doing a better job at turning out new and low propensity voters in Arizona and have more in the tank left of the high propensity voters. The last week of October registrations just dropped as well and Republicans added over 6k to their margin over Democrats. There are now 296,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats after being around 120k four years ago. So, not only are there significantly more new Republicans than Democrats in Arizona, they are also turning out at a higher rate.

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LMCane
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:36p, 11/1/24

[We already warned you and gave you a timeout for continuing to derail this thread with comments about who Trump should have picked for his VP. That is irrelevant to this thread and is a derail. Since you insist, take some more time off. Do it again when you come back and take a longer vacation -- Staff]
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1836er
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In reply to Thunderstruck xx • 2:42p, 11/1/24
AG
Most here probably don't need to hear this message, but I'm doing to say it anyway; it is for that small, but vocal minority on the right who are spreading last minute "doom and gloom" or "concern" about the direction of this election.


Literally ALL the signs from voter registration data and early/mail-in voting everywhere are good for Trump (PA, NC, GA, AZ, etc). To argue that any of these signs are actually good for Harris requires one to buy into a myriad of unlikely assumptions, such as...

1) Turnout levels amongst Republican-leaning independents and Democrat-leaning independents will trend opposite of rather than with the party the lean with.

2) Independents who don't lean Republican or Democrat (which is a very small percentage) will break way more heavily than they normally do for Harris this time than they did last time or they normally do for the Democrats.

3) There will be a significant decrease is Republican turn-out on election day with high and medium propensity voters compared to the last two presidential elections.

4) Democrat lower and medium propensity voters, on the other hand, who normally vote early or by mail (or not at all) will somehow show up in considerably larger percentages this time as election day voters.

5) Republicans gaining on Democrats over the last four years by 100,000s of voter registrations in key swing states (PA, AZ, NC, etc.) will somehow lead to Republicans doing worse rather than better than four years ago.

6) Early voting and mail-in voting data that shows women voting at rates (compared to men) comparable to the past several elections, somehow means than men aren't going to vote on election day at rates (compared to women) comparable to what they typically do on election day.

... not to mention just some basic common sense as well.

6) In the Rust belt states, which have populations that are disproportionately more white, more working class, and more Catholic than the nation as a whole, Kamala Harris will somehow do better in these particular states than Joe Biden (whose entire political career and image uniquely appealed to this demographic) did, when Donald Trump is polling way, way better nationwide in 2024 than he was in 2020.


We are past the "persuasion" phase of this election and into the (final) encouraging your own side's voters while demoralizing the other side's voters phase. They're throwing out all the hopium they can to their own side's voters to gin up enthusiasm, while simultaneously using the media and the pundit class to try and demoralize Republicans.

What you are seeing now (the last few days of the election) from the media, the Dems, and their allies in the pundit class are nothing more than psyops designed to affect last minute/election day turnout. For them to succeed, they have manipulate you to the point where you disbelieve what you are seeing with your own eyes.

They to do this all the time, every election, and some on the right are either dumb enough, naive enough, irrationally pessimistic enough, or just have really bad memories, and fall for it every time. Do not fall for it... IT IS ALL PROPAGANDA designed to manipulate you.
Vance in '28
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aggiehawg
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3:27p, 11/1/24
AG
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FireAg
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In reply to 1836er • 3:37p, 11/1/24
AG
My only concern…ED vote cannibalism from EVs…

It's literally my only concern at this point…
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jr15aggie
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In reply to 1836er • 3:37p, 11/1/24
AG
Agreed. Between polling last couple months and now the EV data... It's pretty much all good news for Trump across the board.

You have to really find creative ways of analyzing the data to make it look hopeful for Kamala.

You can also look at the "body language" of each campaign. Right now it all looks bad for Kamala.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:42p, 11/1/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
I am behind on today's People's Pundit stream but Baris just said there are over 380,000 low propensity voters (2 or fewer past elections) that have early voted in Michigan.

Did he have a rough estimate breakdown on those low propensity voters and how they would vote per his polling?

I have watched two of his episodes now, and he is very bullish on Trump. However, he is that way based on his polling where he has intentionally tried to get a good cross-section of different demographic groups. I think every episode he mentions that he intentionally tries to get more minority data to get better estimates of his polls.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to FireAg • 3:45p, 11/1/24
AG
FireAg said:
My only concern…ED vote cannibalism…

It's literally my only concern at this point…
Don't worry about that in Michigan. Baris ran his numbers on the EV and saw that over 380,000 were low propensity voters (2 or fewer in past elections).Pollsters wouldn't even have those people on their radar under the definitions of likely voter that they use.

And in PA, Scott Pressler has been targeting those low propensity voters as well, getting them registered and following up to get them out to vote.
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nortex97
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In reply to jr15aggie • 3:49p, 11/1/24
AG
Based on the 1/4 and 0/4 numbers, I don't think cannibalization is a problem to worry about now. Look at counties even near the battleground states;





(In person early voting has almost doubled mail in there in WI at this point).



I honestly don't even see any real early-voting metrics that worry me right now.

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aggiehawg
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:57p, 11/1/24
AG
Baris often talks about the Duval County, Florida and state of Georgia connection. Seems weird to me but the history is there.

As to other correlations, he also is adamant that PA, MI and WI always vote the same within a few percentage points. So if PA goes GOP, so will MI and WI. That makes me mildly nervous but not seriously so.
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