Ryan the Temp said:You can thank Trump demonizing mail ballots for the last six years for the reduction in Republican mail ballots..Captn_Ag05 said:Wakes up.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 2, 2024
Sees significant Clark mail drop.
Ds gained 6,000 votes overnight.
Rs still above 40K lead.
Tells fat lady to stop warming up, at least for a bit.
Crunching numbers, short blog post coming, longer one later.
Saturday update from ArizonaCaptn_Ag05 said:Friday morning update from Arizona:Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.
Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
Arizona Early Vote 2020 vs 2024:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2024
2020
🔵 37.4% (+0.4)
🔴 37.0%
🟡 25.6%
Total: 2,471,577
2024:
🔴 40.9% (+8.2)
🔵 32.7%
🟡 26.4%
Total: 2,218,682
If Republicans outvote Democrats on Tuesday, she may be able to eek out a win. I didn't think she had a chance a couple of weeks ago, but these numbers are eye opening. She has to hold on to more Republicans than polling shows her currently doing to win. She has also been getting absolutely smoked by independents in polling.JDUB08AG said:
Enough to maybe get lake over the finish line?
Captn_Ag05 said:
Another note on Arizona:
Arizona is a state that votes early traditionally, so you can tell more by looking at their 2020 data than maybe other states like Pennsylvania that voted so heavily by mail during Covid.
Look at the movement in Arizona. This is about 2/3 of the expected final vote. The remaining 1/3 will come on Election Day.
These things don't happen in isolation.Arizona Early Vote 2020 vs 2024:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2024
2020
🔵 37.4% (+0.4)
🔴 37.0%
🟡 25.6%
Total: 2,471,577
2024:
🔴 40.9% (+8.2)
🔵 32.7%
🟡 26.4%
Total: 2,218,682
Rockdoc said:
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.
Whos weoutofstateaggie said:Rockdoc said:
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.
I hope so. We said the same thing about Biden.
He will exceed his totals from 2020.Quote:
So I think a lot of the EV data suggests Trump can possibly match or exceed his voting totals from 2020. Somebody correct me if that's wrong.
Elon purchasing twitter likely saved this country. Not only does it continue to red pill thousands of potential voters but the ability to share critical information about precinct issues in real-time with no shadow-banning or other censorship is incredible.Isosceles_Kramer said:
biden was weak, is weak, and was carried across by "secure mail in votes". Twitter suppresses information and any questions on validity. It was too late
X is wide open, and while some things are false, real discrepancies are being investigated.
Hold the line and let's show up Tuesday and take this baby home.
Agree. Has been very helpful to the RNC and their legal teams to quickly respond.Quote:
Elon purchasing twitter likely saved this country. Not only does it continue to red pill thousands of potential voters but the ability to share critical information about precinct issues in real-time with no shadow-banning or other censorship is incredible.
This is my thought.jr15aggie said:
So I think a lot of the EV data suggests Trump can possibly match or exceed his voting totals from 2020. Somebody correct me if that's wrong.
I've always felt like Kamala would get similar numbers that Clinton did... Maybe a bit better because of the Orange Man Bad people.
2020 (81 million votes) isn't happening again. If the Dems come back down to numbers similar to 2016 it's going to be the biggest blowout since 2008.
and he was, the harvesting of Urban America using the drop boxes were not watchedoutofstateaggie said:Rockdoc said:
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.
I hope so. We said the same thing about Biden.
I think that picture was actually on this thread and I made the point that she was likely one of the first time voters who had no idea about the rules. It looks like there were a LOT of them in the swing states so it helps R's build a lead (or keep it much closer than normal) and then blow them out on ED when R's traditionally outvote D's.torrid said:
A woman in NJ wearing a MAGA T-shirt was told she could not vote in that clothing, so she took off the shirt and voted in her bra.
I will not post pictures, and Google at your own peril.
New York Republicans vote early in record numbers — but Dem turnout in ‘total free fall’ https://t.co/Qp3CKhFP5I pic.twitter.com/T7fQd909Nm
— New York Post (@nypost) November 2, 2024
Prosperdick said:Elon purchasing twitter likely saved this country. Not only does it continue to red pill thousands of potential voters but the ability to share critical information about precinct issues in real-time with no shadow-banning or other censorship is incredible.Isosceles_Kramer said:
biden was weak, is weak, and was carried across by "secure mail in votes". Twitter suppresses information and any questions on validity. It was too late
X is wide open, and while some things are false, real discrepancies are being investigated.
Hold the line and let's show up Tuesday and take this baby home.
PA24 said:and he was, the harvesting of Urban America using the drop boxes were not watchedoutofstateaggie said:Rockdoc said:
Kamala is a very weak candidate. Turnout will show it.
I hope so. We said the same thing about Biden.
PA MAIL RETURNS 11/2:
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 2, 2024
A surprise update on the weekend. The returns swung by less today, 0.34%. However, the return rate closed fast again, Rs likely to overtake by Monday or Tuesday.
D lead is 400,882, so they finally broke 400K.
My original model likely dies but that's how… https://t.co/AjHimGFQ1t
More proof that GOP EV is not changed by much from 2020. It is the Dems that are not voting like they did in 2020. Harris is toast. https://t.co/xy2CBRVY94
— au ng (@athein1) November 2, 2024
Good for her.torrid said:
A woman in NJ wearing a MAGA T-shirt was told she could not vote in that clothing, so she took off the shirt and voted in her bra.
I will not post pictures, and Google at your own peril.
nortex97 said:PA MAIL RETURNS 11/2:
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 2, 2024
A surprise update on the weekend. The returns swung by less today, 0.34%. However, the return rate closed fast again, Rs likely to overtake by Monday or Tuesday.
D lead is 400,882, so they finally broke 400K.
My original model likely dies but that's how… https://t.co/AjHimGFQ1tMore proof that GOP EV is not changed by much from 2020. It is the Dems that are not voting like they did in 2020. Harris is toast. https://t.co/xy2CBRVY94
— au ng (@athein1) November 2, 2024
Wasn't 33% return for Rs in PA supposed to be bordering on blowout territory for Trump. I know earlier on this thread someone said Trump would likely win the state at 30%, comfortably win at 31-32% and 33% would be blowout beyond margin of cheating type territory. Hope that's true.nortex97 said:PA MAIL RETURNS 11/2:
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 2, 2024
A surprise update on the weekend. The returns swung by less today, 0.34%. However, the return rate closed fast again, Rs likely to overtake by Monday or Tuesday.
D lead is 400,882, so they finally broke 400K.
My original model likely dies but that's how… https://t.co/AjHimGFQ1t
My observation going back several election cycles in NC. CM/unaffiliated voter always look for balance in how they vote, a combination of both Ds and Rs.MemphisAg1 said:
Interesting.
40% of his final rallies in NC
30% in PA
10% in MI
Nothing in WI
That would lead one to believe NC is still up for grabs.
samurai_science said:
Any word on Iowa?
IOWA early voting - by the years
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
🔵 2020: D+12
🔵 2022: D+18
🟡 2024: Tie
🟥 GOP shift of 12 points from 2020
Captn_Ag05 said:samurai_science said:
Any word on Iowa?IOWA early voting - by the years
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
🔵 2020: D+12
🔵 2022: D+18
🟡 2024: Tie
🟥 GOP shift of 12 points from 2020
