https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/early-voting-numbers-are-scary-for-harris-democrats-are-panicking-former-obama-campaign-manager-warns/ar-AA1trNwL

Quote:

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"Republicans are kicking our ass at early voting," Nevada Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus said during a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. "We cannot let that happen."
In Georgia, Republicans appear confident the state's record-setting early voting numbers will favor Trump. The former commander in chief lost Georgia by less than 1% in 2020, and Republicans have poured enormous time and resources into winning it back.
During the early voting period between Oct. 15 and Nov. 1, nearly 4 million Georgians cast in-person or absentee ballots, more than half the state's active voters. Over 700,000 people who voted already in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia Votes. Meanwhile, the top three counties for voter turnout rates are rural areas won by Trump in 2020.
A source on the Trump campaign told the New York Post Sunday that in four battleground states - Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, "Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the outlet reported.

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Philip J Fry said:

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/early-voting-numbers-are-scary-for-harris-democrats-are-panicking-former-obama-campaign-manager-warns/ar-AA1trNwL

Quote:

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"Republicans are kicking our ass at early voting," Nevada Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus said during a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. "We cannot let that happen."
In Georgia, Republicans appear confident the state's record-setting early voting numbers will favor Trump. The former commander in chief lost Georgia by less than 1% in 2020, and Republicans have poured enormous time and resources into winning it back.
During the early voting period between Oct. 15 and Nov. 1, nearly 4 million Georgians cast in-person or absentee ballots, more than half the state's active voters. Over 700,000 people who voted already in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia Votes. Meanwhile, the top three counties for voter turnout rates are rural areas won by Trump in 2020.
A source on the Trump campaign told the New York Post Sunday that in four battleground states - Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, "Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the outlet reported.

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2023NCAggies said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote

---

Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump

---

This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.

fightingfarmer09 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote

---

Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump

---

This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.

---

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.

I think R lead might end up ~40k by E-eve if large VBM drops 11/4. In 2020, it was a D lead of 53k on E-eve that gave Biden a win of 33.6k votes. Indies won’t lean Dems. They will likely be a draw or lean Trump. Trump wins NV easily this year. Trump +3 to 5 pts

2/End

— au ng (@athein1) November 4, 2024

“In terms of the data, the early vote continues to be a problem in terms of how much of a lead she has and the underperformance of black voters,” says @MarkHalperin of Kamala Harris. “Let’s see tomorrow where we are in Pennsylvania. I think the delta of the Democratic lead is… pic.twitter.com/OMAzXMIpev

— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) November 4, 2024

Obama campaign manager admits EV numbers are scary:

Former Obama Campaign manager knows it's over. "The early vote numbers are scary." pic.twitter.com/22OvAF3byZ

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 3, 2024

IDaggie06 said:

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fightingfarmer09 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote

---

Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump

---

This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.

---

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.

---

Please tell me if I'm wrong, but that's not what the early numbers seem to be showing. There is not a lot more early voting for Republicans. For the most part, the R's are hitting about the same as far as early voting. They are showing out at 100-101% of their 2020 returns. The difference is the dems are not hitting their 2020 early and mail in ballot numbers this go around which is where you get the lower dem lead going into Election Day.

I would not be surprised by the Rep's hitting or exceeding their ED numbers from 2020. I absolutely think there appears to be a much more energized base for Trump this year. I didn't think that could/would happen, but I believe his support is even larger now.

Maybe I'm wrong on PA. I do think Fla's early voting numbers have well passed 2020….. but the other states appear to mostly be in line with the 2020 numbers.

Edit to add: even in Fla, where Trump holds a massive lead, the early voting number is at 101% of 2020. It's just the Dems number is a much lower % of what they showed in early voting in 2020.

The stakes are high in Pennsylvania for this presidential election: “In Philadelphia, this is all about turnout,” says former Mayor @Michael_Nutter.

Watch the full conversation on Pennsylvania and North Carolina with @MariaTeresa, @CaitLeg, Berwood Yost, and @TimNaftali:… pic.twitter.com/HiFo6puHBe

— Columbia Institute of Global Politics (@ColumbiaIGP) November 1, 2024

Former Mayor of Philly.

Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results

I can't believe anyone is inspired to vote for Kamala, they are only voting against Trump. On the other hand, people are inspired by Trump and know what he is able to get done to help America once again.

Looking good in NC as long as R's vote like they have in the past.

#NCEV update 11/4 am. R lead receded by 400 to 40.6k. (was D lead by ~200k in 2020 but don’t have exact data). I think R lead might recede a bit more in am due to mail. R are +~250k compared to 2020. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should win NC 4+ pts. pic.twitter.com/ajC5a1m1q9

— au ng (@athein1) November 4, 2024

Early voting in Pennsylvania 2 days out. 2020 vs 2024

2020
🟦 1,587,654 (+1,040,038)
🟥 547,616

2024
🟦 893,998 (+372,799)
🟥 521,199

GOP are at their 2020 level turnout. Dem turnout is way down. The firewall is gone.

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 4, 2024

Likely last ever rally for Donald Trump. Grand Rapids, Michigan.

🚨 NEW: Trump has a PACKED last day on the campaign trail today.

🔴 Raleigh, North Carolina: 10AM
🔴 Reading, Pennsylvania: 2PM
🔴 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: 6PM
🔴 Grand Rapids, Michigan: 10:30PM

JD VANCE:
🔴 La Crosse, Wisconsin: 9:30AM
🔴 Flint, Michigan: 1:15PM
🔴 Atlanta,…

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

will25u said:

---

Early voting in Pennsylvania 2 days out. 2020 vs 2024

2020
🟦 1,587,654 (+1,040,038)
🟥 547,616

2024
🟦 893,998 (+372,799)
🟥 521,199

GOP are at their 2020 level turnout. Dem turnout is way down. The firewall is gone.

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 4, 2024

---

I thought I had seen that Dems had broken through to +400,000? Did a bunch of R returns come in to bring it back down?

IDaggie06 said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

2023NCAggies said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote

---

Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump

---

This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.

---

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year. So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.

---

2024 EV is at the same level as 2020 EV turnout for Republicans so there is no reason to think 2024 ED turnout will be less. It will only be less if men are not motivated. I doubt that is the case.

IDaggie06 said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

2023NCAggies said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote

---

Democrats are more in line with 2016 enthusiasm than 2020. 2016 turnout for dems, 2020 turnout for Rs. which means blowout for Trump

---

This is the only way to really dive into the numbers. The data appears to show that the early vote for Rep will be in line with 2020 with the potential to have an equal Election Day turnout. While the Dem are not matching that. The votes are technically still out there, but it will be a heroic effort to get them out.

Republicans MUST match the 2020 ED turnout to overcome the change in demographic makeup and female shift in voting. I think the democrats are definitely pulling some female republican voters.

---

Republlicans are not going to match 2020 ED turnout just like the democrats aren't. But Republicans do not need to match it, they just need to perform well. For instance, in 2020 Penslyvania democrasts had over 1 million vote lead going into election day but they are exepected to have roughly 500k lead this year. Part of this is a lot more republicans voting early this year . So while they aren't going to match 2020 ED turnout, they still have plenty to overcome the 500k deficit with a solid turnout on Tuesday and without dems having an unrealist ED turnout.

---

As you can see in the percentage above that is not necessarily true. Republican turnout is in line with 2020. Democrats are just down 20% from 2020.

SwigAg11 said:

---

will25u said:

---

Early voting in Pennsylvania 2 days out. 2020 vs 2024

2020
🟦 1,587,654 (+1,040,038)
🟥 547,616

2024
🟦 893,998 (+372,799)
🟥 521,199

GOP are at their 2020 level turnout. Dem turnout is way down. The firewall is gone.

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 4, 2024

---

I thought I had seen that Dems had broken through to +400,000? Did a bunch of R returns come in to bring it back down?

---

Seems it is.

PA MAIL RETURNS 11/4:

A small mail update from Sunday to Today. Hopefully tomorrow's is bigger. The swings were extremely small but also in D favor.

D lead is 409,904 they increased by 3K which is smaller than the day before. The pattern did continue to get smaller on a day to… https://t.co/czgc6QSzmx

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 4, 2024

[Not going to derail this with a discussion on election fraud. Plenty of other threads for that -- Staff]

No idea where that David Chapman guy got his numbers, but they're at least a week old. PA's official number today had 997,450 Dem returned ballots vs 587,546 Republican.

tallgrant said:

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No idea where that David Chapman guy got his numbers, but they're at least a week old. PA's official number today had 997,450 Dem returned ballots vs 587,546 Republican.

---

So Dems lead is just over 400,000 whereas it was over a million in 2020. This also will be interesting to track:

Pretty much every poll shows that there are far more Biden 2020 voters voting for Trump juxtaposed to Trump 2020 voters voting for Harris.

The Trump 2020 to Harris 2020 voter in the last NYT Poll was < 2%. The Biden 2020 to Trump 2020 voter was 5%, identical to @BIGDATAPOLL. https://t.co/h1dLpIfXRi

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 4, 2024

If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Florida 🍊🐊
Conclusion of in-person early voting

Total early votes: 8,204,236 (+366,084 since Nov 2)
Vote-by-mail: 2,842,937 votes (🔵 D+7)
In-person early: 5,357,235 votes (🔴 R+19)

Ballots by party registration
🔴 Republican 43.2% | 3,545,236 votes (+108,383)
🔵 Democratic… pic.twitter.com/h75zD0g65U

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) November 4, 2024

will25u said:

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If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Florida 🍊🐊
Conclusion of in-person early voting

Total early votes: 8,204,236 (+366,084 since Nov 2)
Vote-by-mail: 2,842,937 votes (🔵 D+7)
In-person early: 5,357,235 votes (🔴 R+19)

Ballots by party registration
🔴 Republican 43.2% | 3,545,236 votes (+108,383)
🔵 Democratic… pic.twitter.com/h75zD0g65U

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) November 4, 2024

---

Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.

Miami Dade also has a large Puerto Rican expat community (something like 1.3 million I think, in FL statewide), in addition to the Cubano one. That segment of voters don't seem too mad at Trump based on EV is my point.

Share Of Woman In Early Vote:

2020:
🟣 Woman 56%

2024:
🟣 Woman 53%

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 4, 2024

Prosperdick said:

---

will25u said:

---

If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Florida 🍊🐊
Conclusion of in-person early voting

Total early votes: 8,204,236 (+366,084 since Nov 2)
Vote-by-mail: 2,842,937 votes (🔵 D+7)
In-person early: 5,357,235 votes (🔴 R+19)

Ballots by party registration
🔴 Republican 43.2% | 3,545,236 votes (+108,383)
🔵 Democratic… pic.twitter.com/h75zD0g65U

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) November 4, 2024

---

Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.

---

When there is a huge enthusiasm swing between the two parties, it would be pretty shocking to see the Ind voters swing heavily towards the side with a distinct lack of voter enthusiasm.

I also think an underestimated factor on the D side is how Kamala was annointed without a primary process. She was not a widely popular politician in her party, so to have her "selected" using a non-democratic process is likely to have turned quite a few D and D-leaning voters off. They may not go vote for Trump, they will likely just not vote.

Prosperdick said:

---

Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.

---

1) For the states that provide the information, Rs are maintaining their 2020 EV numbers (a little ahead in some places), and Ds are down from 2020.
2) The Independent breakdown is going to vary by state, but nationally, I believe the polls have been showing that Trump is in the lead for the Independent vote.

Thank you Scott Presler! He got those disaffected and low propensity voters in PA to not only register but to vote.

Prosperdick said:

---

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.

---

Point A goes against all of their recent history.

Point B ALSO goes against typical voting history for Independents. Especially with a polarizing Trump and a very marginal candidate in Harris with baggage of the previous 4 years. At best it would be 40/60, maybe 50/50.

Question:

Aren't early votes just transferring the date that a voter submits from Day-of to Earlier? So the net gain is technically Zero?

I understand that this shows eagerness and velocity of the parties (i.e. enthusiasm), and that's encouraging for the GOP / Trump in terms of where this was at versus 2020. But unless this also translates to MORE votes for the GOP... how is the data that helpful?

Also, does early voting also not give fraudsters (if you believe they exist) more data to know how much to cheat by earlier in the process?

txags92 said:

---

Prosperdick said:

---

will25u said:

---

If you didn't know yet....

FLORIDA IS RED!

Republicans with ~846k lead headed into election day. Also had 1+ million vote advantage in IPEV. Miami Dade is STILL Red. Republicans are voting in line with 2020 while Democrats are underperforming BIGLY!

NPA/Other votes combined with ED votes in 2020 broke 56.11% Trump and 43.89% Biden(Don't have time to split it out.)

Democrats had a total EV advantage of ~125k in 2020.

Looking at 2+ million outstanding votes for election day.

2020 Republican EV - 3,466,098
2024 Republican EV - 3,545,236(+79,138)
2020 Democrat EV - 3,591,161
2024 Democrat EV - 2,699,548(-891,613!!!)
2020 NPA EV - 2,000,852
2024 NPA EV - 1,959,453(-41,399)

Florida 🍊🐊
Conclusion of in-person early voting

Total early votes: 8,204,236 (+366,084 since Nov 2)
Vote-by-mail: 2,842,937 votes (🔵 D+7)
In-person early: 5,357,235 votes (🔴 R+19)

Ballots by party registration
🔴 Republican 43.2% | 3,545,236 votes (+108,383)
🔵 Democratic… pic.twitter.com/h75zD0g65U

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) November 4, 2024

---

Crazy that Miami Dade is STILL red, I would have thought by now the Dems would have overtaken the lead for that very liberal county. If that trend occurs nationally it will be a landslide.

Also, another trend is Dems underperforming across MANY states, especially the swing states. There has been no edict declared by Kamala to instruct Dems to wait until ED to vote so that has to be VERY concerning for them.

I know I've seen the left say Independents are breaking hard for Kamala, which I doubt, but even if that's true I don't think it will be enough to make up for the underperformance in early voting.

---

When there is a huge enthusiasm swing between the two parties, it would be pretty shocking to see the Ind voters swing heavily towards the side with a distinct lack of voter enthusiasm.

I also think an underestimated factor on the D side is how Kamala was annointed without a primary process. She was not a widely popular politician in her party, so to have her "selected" using a non-democratic process is likely to have turned quite a few D and D-leaning voters off. They may not go vote for Trump, they will likely just not vote.

---

Something else that I don't see many people discussing in terms of Indy voters is how many of them were RFK supporters? They are now voting Trump obviously so when I keep hearing Kamala supporters saying Indy will break huge for her I just don't understand why? Actually I do, it's all they have at this point.