We will see what happens in a couple of weeks.
***Official Early Vote Tracking***
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Last: 3 mo ago by IDaggie06
Meanwhile, KAMala is taking a day off.
Surely that's wrong, right?
To prepare for an interview. 🙄
— Oreo_Speedwagon (@1OreoSpeedwagon) October 22, 2024
Yes, Kamala needs a day off to prepare for something Trump does 10 times a day.
Surely that's wrong, right?
PA MAIL RETURNS: Wow, Rs are really picking up steam. I expected the overall gap close to slow, but instead it picked up in one day.
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 22, 2024
And the return rate closed INSANELY!!!!!!
D: 61.72% (Down 1.21%)
R: 28.61% (Up 1.01%)
Total RETURNS: 1,051,655
Return Rate:
D: 60.11%
R:… https://t.co/NQohTcMKph
PA is looking great so far with Pressler's work. All eyes should be on Philadelphia these last 2 weeks. If Dem votes stay statistically down in Philadelphia, like they are currently, Trump should win very comfortably.
I still can't fathom how any of this is a "surprise" to anyone. Hillary was not exactly likeable, but she had a big name and had a huge following... she seemed almost destined to be the 1st female president. Trump smoked her!
Did we really think that Kamala would outperform Clinton vs. Trump? The ONLY advantage Kamala has over 2016 Clinton is that the media has gone more left with their Dem support and Trump hate.
Obviously most don't anticipate the Electoral map to be much different than in 2016, but I fully expect the margin of victory in the swing states to be larger. A popular vote victory by Trump also isn't out of the question.
Did we really think that Kamala would outperform Clinton vs. Trump? The ONLY advantage Kamala has over 2016 Clinton is that the media has gone more left with their Dem support and Trump hate.
Obviously most don't anticipate the Electoral map to be much different than in 2016, but I fully expect the margin of victory in the swing states to be larger. A popular vote victory by Trump also isn't out of the question.
if Elon had never bought Twitter we would have never had a shot.
At this moment Vegas is stating there is a 53% chance that Trump wins between 332 and 365 electoral votes.jr15aggie said:
I still can't fathom how any of this is a "surprise" to anyone. Hillary was not exactly likeable, but she had a big name and had a huge following... she seemed almost destined to be the 1st female president. Trump smoked her!
Did we really think that Kamala would outperform Clinton vs. Trump? The ONLY advantage Kamala has over 2016 Clinton is that the media has gone more left with their Dem support and Trump hate.
Obviously most don't anticipate the Electoral map to be much different than in 2016, but I fully expect the margin of victory in the swing states to be larger. A popular vote victory by Trump also isn't out of the question.
This race should be called by 11PM CST on Election Night.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,966
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nortex97 said:
Meanwhile, KAMala is taking a day off.To prepare for an interview. 🙄
— Oreo_Speedwagon (@1OreoSpeedwagon) October 22, 2024
Yes, Kamala needs a day off to prepare for something Trump does 10 times a day.
Surely that's wrong, right?PA MAIL RETURNS: Wow, Rs are really picking up steam. I expected the overall gap close to slow, but instead it picked up in one day.
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 22, 2024
And the return rate closed INSANELY!!!!!!
D: 61.72% (Down 1.21%)
R: 28.61% (Up 1.01%)
Total RETURNS: 1,051,655
Return Rate:
D: 60.11%
R:… https://t.co/NQohTcMKph
Rs are .4% away from sticking the nail in the coffin with plenty of time left to run it up.
The reason why the 29% plus split is important given the added registrations and low propensity voters factored in (who have already voted), is it adds up to the Philly firewall. At 30% you now exceed the Philly firewall and that doesn't account for the black men in Philly voting for Trump as registered Ds.
Pittsburgh is very very light blue now and may flip.
Okay, rewatching Rich Baris from yesterday and picked up this little nugget.
Nearly 25% of the EV vote so far in PA are people who did NOT vote in 2020. Again Scott Pressler has done amazing work.
How would pollsters identify and reach those people in earlier polls? They would have been largely off of the radar for them.
ETA: That high of a number of voters who did not vote in 2020 also affects the size of the "firewall" Dems think they still have.
Nearly 25% of the EV vote so far in PA are people who did NOT vote in 2020. Again Scott Pressler has done amazing work.
How would pollsters identify and reach those people in earlier polls? They would have been largely off of the radar for them.
ETA: That high of a number of voters who did not vote in 2020 also affects the size of the "firewall" Dems think they still have.
That's Allegheny County, right? Several groups doing massive outreach there. Nearly a million door knocks thus far.Quote:
Pittsburgh is very very light blue now and may flip.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,966
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Correct. My Corporate HQ sits there and I visit a few times a year.
Had a marketing gal down last week in Houston, who is left, and she was sad that she feels like Western PA is lost to Trump including Allegheny.
I didn't say anything but smiled inside.
Had a marketing gal down last week in Houston, who is left, and she was sad that she feels like Western PA is lost to Trump including Allegheny.
I didn't say anything but smiled inside.
please lord!!
Here is "The Morning Meeting," on which I report what my sources are saying: If the trajectory of early voting continues like it is now (IF IF IF), we will know on Election Day that Donald Trump has won, even before the polls open.https://t.co/ll1oEcDtgJ
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) October 22, 2024
aggiehawg said:
Okay, rewatching Rich Baris from yesterday and picked up this little nugget.
Nearly 25% of the EV vote so far in PA are people who did NOT vote in 2020. Again Scott Pressler has done amazing work.
How would pollsters identify and reach those people in earlier polls? They would have been largely off of the radar for them.
ETA: That high of a number of voters who did not vote in 2020 also affects the size of the "firewall" Dems think they still have.
this is an issue we have been discussing many times- if the GOP is able to register "lapsed voters" or those NEVER registered before-
that would not be appearing in any polling of "likely voters" who are screened as usually those who have voted 3 of the last 4 times or whatever
hopefully groups like Pressler in AZ and GA and PA have registered tens of thousands of first timers who are older and never voted before
I'll post this over here too for the people who don't care about polls.
PA is going to be CLOSE. Probably within 1-2 points either way. Here is how registrations have been going in PA.
2008 - DEM + 1,236,467
2012 - DEM + 1,135,173(-101,294)
2016 - DEM + 916,274(-218,899)
2020 - DEM + 685,818(-230,456)
2024 - DEM + 297,824(-387,994)
PA is getting redder, but if someone is voting for Trump in PA they need to get out and VOTE.
And everyone else no matter where you live...
VOTE VOTE VOTE!
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
PA is going to be CLOSE. Probably within 1-2 points either way. Here is how registrations have been going in PA.
2008 - DEM + 1,236,467
2012 - DEM + 1,135,173(-101,294)
2016 - DEM + 916,274(-218,899)
2020 - DEM + 685,818(-230,456)
2024 - DEM + 297,824(-387,994)
PA is getting redder, but if someone is voting for Trump in PA they need to get out and VOTE.
And everyone else no matter where you live...
VOTE VOTE VOTE!
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
If it's going to be close I assume they'll be able to cheat to the win. Terrifying.
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada
Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada
Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
If turnout in Philly remains low it's a very good sign...not saying to put it in the W column yet but that is such a good sign for Trump. There is no excitement to show up and vote for Kamala.will25u said:
I'll post this over here too for the people who don't care about polls.
PA is going to be CLOSE. Probably within 1-2 points either way. Here is how registrations have been going in PA.
2008 - DEM + 1,236,467
2012 - DEM + 1,135,173(-101,294)
2016 - DEM + 916,274(-218,899)
2020 - DEM + 685,818(-230,456)
2024 - DEM + 297,824(-387,994)
PA is getting redder, but if someone is voting for Trump in PA they need to get out and VOTE.
And everyone else no matter where you live...
VOTE VOTE VOTE!
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada
Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
There are also more gun owners in CA than any other state. On 2nd Amendment alone, those should have much more sawy...if they voted en masse...which they apparently don't.
aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?
I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?MagnumLoad said:aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?
I think the point is to try and get dems elected
If I am not mistaken, they can go to a designated place, ask for a mail ballot, fill it out and drop it off at the same place and that is considered "mailed".Gyles Marrett said:Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?MagnumLoad said:aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?
I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Clown system. I'm going to go leave a written note on a coworkers keyboard and call it an e-mail.will25u said:If I am not mistaken, they can go to a designated place, ask for a mail ballot, fill it out and drop it off at the same place and that is considered "mailed".Gyles Marrett said:Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?MagnumLoad said:aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?
I think the point is to try and get dems elected
I think that is correct. Real screwy system there.will25u said:If I am not mistaken, they can go to a designated place, ask for a mail ballot, fill it out and drop it off at the same place and that is considered "mailed".Gyles Marrett said:Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?MagnumLoad said:aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?
I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:nortex97 said:
Meanwhile, KAMala is taking a day off.To prepare for an interview. 🙄
— Oreo_Speedwagon (@1OreoSpeedwagon) October 22, 2024
Yes, Kamala needs a day off to prepare for something Trump does 10 times a day.
Surely that's wrong, right?PA MAIL RETURNS: Wow, Rs are really picking up steam. I expected the overall gap close to slow, but instead it picked up in one day.
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 22, 2024
And the return rate closed INSANELY!!!!!!
D: 61.72% (Down 1.21%)
R: 28.61% (Up 1.01%)
Total RETURNS: 1,051,655
Return Rate:
D: 60.11%
R:… https://t.co/NQohTcMKph
Rs are .4% away from sticking the nail in the coffin with plenty of time left to run it up.
The reason why the 29% plus split is important given the added registrations and low propensity voters factored in (who have already voted), is it adds up to the Philly firewall. At 30% you now exceed the Philly firewall and that doesn't account for the black men in Philly voting for Trump as registered Ds.
Pittsburgh is very very light blue now and may flip.
Trying to understand what all this means. You're saying R's are .4% away from a 29% split (which is an important barrier)? Are you referring to the D 61.72% and R 28.61%? That's a 33.11% split.
I may be complete misunderstanding. Just trying to follow what the data means.
Voted today. And there was a nice long line at the Hilton on Post Oak here in Houston. Can't really tell by the looks of people, but if I had to guess I would say it was evenly split D vs. R.
You know what won't be picked up in early tracking? The non-voter vote. I take that back, you can literally count the non-votes by taking the known population and deducting the actual voters. It's actually a much higher number and actual voters are the minority, not the majority.
any masks in line are 250% for Kamala.chilimuybueno said:
Voted today. And there was a nice long line at the Hilton on Post Oak here in Houston. Can't really tell by the looks of people, but if I had to guess I would say it was evenly split D vs. R.
polls are literally showing that is not a correct listRED AG 98 said:I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada
Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
a few polls have Harris winning NC
while the last few polls have Trump winning Nevada
Michigan would be more likely to flip than WI
It's quite safe to say at this point polls mean absolutely nothing.LMCane said:polls are literally showing that is not a correct listRED AG 98 said:I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada
Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
a few polls have Harris winning NC
while the last few polls have Trump winning Nevada
Michigan would be more likely to flip than WI
The percentage of voters in early voting who have not voted before or in a long time is very high and those voters would not ever be polled as they aren't viewed by pollsters as "likely voters". Pressler has done an incredible job getting new voters registered to turn out.
Thread on MN.
(2) As of today, the numbers seem to show 400K votes in the hopper for early/absentee voting. With the number of days remaining and the trajectory up to now, I feel pretty comfortable saying early/absentee voting will get us around 600K votes
— mngander (@mngander92) October 22, 2024
do you have a link for this?LMCane said:polls are literally showing that is not a correct listRED AG 98 said:I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada
Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
a few polls have Harris winning NC
while the last few polls have Trump winning Nevada
Michigan would be more likely to flip than WI
Reading this (and this thought applies to other states as well) I know of many registered democrats who plan on voting for Trump. I know there's some cross over both ways somewhat but I'd be willing to bet there will be a bigger crossover of Dems for Trump. Just a thought when analyzing strictly based on votes by party affiliation.will25u said:
Thread on MN.(2) As of today, the numbers seem to show 400K votes in the hopper for early/absentee voting. With the number of days remaining and the trajectory up to now, I feel pretty comfortable saying early/absentee voting will get us around 600K votes
— mngander (@mngander92) October 22, 2024
North Carolina 🌄
— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 22, 2024
Mail and Early In-Person Voting Update
Total: 1,381,184
🔵 Democratic 35.0% | 483,075 votes
đź”´ Republican 33.6% | 463,914 votes
⚪️ Other 31.4% | 434,195 votes
Check out our updated dashboard for NC: https://t.co/OI3c59nadM pic.twitter.com/poD3xCwfKo
Florida is an apocalypse for Democrats right now.
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 22, 2024
Was D+7% turnout edge for mail, then in person early started yesterday and it is now over R+3% at lunchtime. I am watching Duval County, which is a perfect mirror for GA for the past two decades, which is possible to flip to R+…
The overall Florida map is now at 3.26% Advantage Trump. It started at close to 0% this morning.
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 22, 2024
Loosely translated: If all voting stopped right now and we count them, we'd see Trump win Florida by ~4%.
And that 4% margin happened in just one day that is not even done yet.…
Hearing reports of LOOOOOONG lines today in the reddest parts of WOW in Wisconsin—great news!
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) October 22, 2024
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