***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Brother Shamus
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10:15a, 10/22/24
We will see what happens in a couple of weeks.
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nortex97
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In reply to Kellso • 10:18a, 10/22/24
AG
Meanwhile, KAMala is taking a day off.



Surely that's wrong, right?

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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:22a, 10/22/24
AG
PA is looking great so far with Pressler's work. All eyes should be on Philadelphia these last 2 weeks. If Dem votes stay statistically down in Philadelphia, like they are currently, Trump should win very comfortably.
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jr15aggie
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10:25a, 10/22/24
AG
I still can't fathom how any of this is a "surprise" to anyone. Hillary was not exactly likeable, but she had a big name and had a huge following... she seemed almost destined to be the 1st female president. Trump smoked her!

Did we really think that Kamala would outperform Clinton vs. Trump? The ONLY advantage Kamala has over 2016 Clinton is that the media has gone more left with their Dem support and Trump hate.

Obviously most don't anticipate the Electoral map to be much different than in 2016, but I fully expect the margin of victory in the swing states to be larger. A popular vote victory by Trump also isn't out of the question.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to jr15aggie • 10:27a, 10/22/24
AG
if Elon had never bought Twitter we would have never had a shot.
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Kellso
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In reply to jr15aggie • 10:27a, 10/22/24
jr15aggie said:
I still can't fathom how any of this is a "surprise" to anyone. Hillary was not exactly likeable, but she had a big name and had a huge following... she seemed almost destined to be the 1st female president. Trump smoked her!

Did we really think that Kamala would outperform Clinton vs. Trump? The ONLY advantage Kamala has over 2016 Clinton is that the media has gone more left with their Dem support and Trump hate.

Obviously most don't anticipate the Electoral map to be much different than in 2016, but I fully expect the margin of victory in the swing states to be larger. A popular vote victory by Trump also isn't out of the question.
At this moment Vegas is stating there is a 53% chance that Trump wins between 332 and 365 electoral votes.
This race should be called by 11PM CST on Election Night.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:54a, 10/22/24
nortex97 said:
Meanwhile, KAMala is taking a day off.



Surely that's wrong, right?



Rs are .4% away from sticking the nail in the coffin with plenty of time left to run it up.

The reason why the 29% plus split is important given the added registrations and low propensity voters factored in (who have already voted), is it adds up to the Philly firewall. At 30% you now exceed the Philly firewall and that doesn't account for the black men in Philly voting for Trump as registered Ds.

Pittsburgh is very very light blue now and may flip.
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aggiehawg
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10:55a, 10/22/24
AG
Okay, rewatching Rich Baris from yesterday and picked up this little nugget.

Nearly 25% of the EV vote so far in PA are people who did NOT vote in 2020. Again Scott Pressler has done amazing work.

How would pollsters identify and reach those people in earlier polls? They would have been largely off of the radar for them.

ETA: That high of a number of voters who did not vote in 2020 also affects the size of the "firewall" Dems think they still have.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 10:57a, 10/22/24
AG
Quote:
Pittsburgh is very very light blue now and may flip.
That's Allegheny County, right? Several groups doing massive outreach there. Nearly a million door knocks thus far.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:00a, 10/22/24
Correct. My Corporate HQ sits there and I visit a few times a year.

Had a marketing gal down last week in Houston, who is left, and she was sad that she feels like Western PA is lost to Trump including Allegheny.

I didn't say anything but smiled inside.
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LMCane
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11:03a, 10/22/24
please lord!!

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LMCane
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:05a, 10/22/24
aggiehawg said:
Okay, rewatching Rich Baris from yesterday and picked up this little nugget.

Nearly 25% of the EV vote so far in PA are people who did NOT vote in 2020. Again Scott Pressler has done amazing work.

How would pollsters identify and reach those people in earlier polls? They would have been largely off of the radar for them.

ETA: That high of a number of voters who did not vote in 2020 also affects the size of the "firewall" Dems think they still have.

this is an issue we have been discussing many times- if the GOP is able to register "lapsed voters" or those NEVER registered before-

that would not be appearing in any polling of "likely voters" who are screened as usually those who have voted 3 of the last 4 times or whatever

hopefully groups like Pressler in AZ and GA and PA have registered tens of thousands of first timers who are older and never voted before
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will25u
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11:16a, 10/22/24
I'll post this over here too for the people who don't care about polls.

PA is going to be CLOSE. Probably within 1-2 points either way. Here is how registrations have been going in PA.

2008 - DEM + 1,236,467
2012 - DEM + 1,135,173(-101,294)
2016 - DEM + 916,274(-218,899)
2020 - DEM + 685,818(-230,456)
2024 - DEM + 297,824(-387,994)

PA is getting redder, but if someone is voting for Trump in PA they need to get out and VOTE.

And everyone else no matter where you live...

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to will25u • 11:30a, 10/22/24
AG
If it's going to be close I assume they'll be able to cheat to the win. Terrifying.
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will25u
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11:30a, 10/22/24
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada

Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to will25u • 11:36a, 10/22/24
will25u said:
I'll post this over here too for the people who don't care about polls.

PA is going to be CLOSE. Probably within 1-2 points either way. Here is how registrations have been going in PA.

2008 - DEM + 1,236,467
2012 - DEM + 1,135,173(-101,294)
2016 - DEM + 916,274(-218,899)
2020 - DEM + 685,818(-230,456)
2024 - DEM + 297,824(-387,994)

PA is getting redder, but if someone is voting for Trump in PA they need to get out and VOTE.

And everyone else no matter where you live...

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
If turnout in Philly remains low it's a very good sign...not saying to put it in the W column yet but that is such a good sign for Trump. There is no excitement to show up and vote for Kamala.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to will25u • 11:40a, 10/22/24
AG
will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada

Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.
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aggiehawg
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1:02p, 10/22/24
AG
There are also more gun owners in CA than any other state. On 2nd Amendment alone, those should have much more sawy...if they voted en masse...which they apparently don't.
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MagnumLoad
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:07p, 10/22/24
aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?

I think the point is to try and get dems elected
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to MagnumLoad • 1:35p, 10/22/24
MagnumLoad said:
aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?

I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?

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will25u
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 1:41p, 10/22/24
Gyles Marrett said:
MagnumLoad said:
aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?

I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?

If I am not mistaken, they can go to a designated place, ask for a mail ballot, fill it out and drop it off at the same place and that is considered "mailed".
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to will25u • 1:50p, 10/22/24
will25u said:
Gyles Marrett said:
MagnumLoad said:
aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?

I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?

If I am not mistaken, they can go to a designated place, ask for a mail ballot, fill it out and drop it off at the same place and that is considered "mailed".
Clown system. I'm going to go leave a written note on a coworkers keyboard and call it an e-mail.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to will25u • 1:54p, 10/22/24
AG
will25u said:
Gyles Marrett said:
MagnumLoad said:
aggiehawg said:
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?

I think the point is to try and get dems elected
Wasn't even aware that in person early voting wasn't an option in PA. So the only in person voting they have is day of election day?

If I am not mistaken, they can go to a designated place, ask for a mail ballot, fill it out and drop it off at the same place and that is considered "mailed".
I think that is correct. Real screwy system there.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 2:35p, 10/22/24
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
nortex97 said:
Meanwhile, KAMala is taking a day off.



Surely that's wrong, right?



Rs are .4% away from sticking the nail in the coffin with plenty of time left to run it up.

The reason why the 29% plus split is important given the added registrations and low propensity voters factored in (who have already voted), is it adds up to the Philly firewall. At 30% you now exceed the Philly firewall and that doesn't account for the black men in Philly voting for Trump as registered Ds.

Pittsburgh is very very light blue now and may flip.


Trying to understand what all this means. You're saying R's are .4% away from a 29% split (which is an important barrier)? Are you referring to the D 61.72% and R 28.61%? That's a 33.11% split.

I may be complete misunderstanding. Just trying to follow what the data means.
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chilimuybueno
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2:47p, 10/22/24
AG
Voted today. And there was a nice long line at the Hilton on Post Oak here in Houston. Can't really tell by the looks of people, but if I had to guess I would say it was evenly split D vs. R.
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NPH-
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2:49p, 10/22/24
AG
You know what won't be picked up in early tracking? The non-voter vote. I take that back, you can literally count the non-votes by taking the known population and deducting the actual voters. It's actually a much higher number and actual voters are the minority, not the majority.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to chilimuybueno • 2:50p, 10/22/24
chilimuybueno said:
Voted today. And there was a nice long line at the Hilton on Post Oak here in Houston. Can't really tell by the looks of people, but if I had to guess I would say it was evenly split D vs. R.
any masks in line are 250% for Kamala.
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LMCane
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In reply to RED AG 98 • 2:51p, 10/22/24
RED AG 98 said:
will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada

Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.
polls are literally showing that is not a correct list

a few polls have Harris winning NC

while the last few polls have Trump winning Nevada

Michigan would be more likely to flip than WI
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to LMCane • 2:56p, 10/22/24
LMCane said:
RED AG 98 said:
will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada

Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.
polls are literally showing that is not a correct list

a few polls have Harris winning NC

while the last few polls have Trump winning Nevada

Michigan would be more likely to flip than WI
It's quite safe to say at this point polls mean absolutely nothing.

The percentage of voters in early voting who have not voted before or in a long time is very high and those voters would not ever be polled as they aren't viewed by pollsters as "likely voters". Pressler has done an incredible job getting new voters registered to turn out.
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will25u
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2:56p, 10/22/24
Thread on MN.

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NPH-
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In reply to LMCane • 2:56p, 10/22/24
AG
LMCane said:
RED AG 98 said:
will25u said:
From my understanding, the order of likely hood of a state staying or flipping Rep is as follows:

1. North Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Nevada

Nevada is not really needed by either party except for some fringe cases. The most important are WI MI PA. Harris will win if she sweeps those 3. Trump needs at least 1 along with AZ GA NC. Or 2 without GA.
I really hope this turnout and enthusiasm gap translates to local elections as well. Nearly as much as I want DC, I want governors and state officials to fix their systems following the outstanding of RD in Florida.
polls are literally showing that is not a correct list

a few polls have Harris winning NC

while the last few polls have Trump winning Nevada

Michigan would be more likely to flip than WI
do you have a link for this?
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to will25u • 3:00p, 10/22/24
will25u said:
Thread on MN.

Reading this (and this thought applies to other states as well) I know of many registered democrats who plan on voting for Trump. I know there's some cross over both ways somewhat but I'd be willing to bet there will be a bigger crossover of Dems for Trump. Just a thought when analyzing strictly based on votes by party affiliation.
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will25u
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3:05p, 10/22/24
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will25u
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3:12p, 10/22/24
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will25u
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3:14p, 10/22/24

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