***Official Early Vote Tracking***

243,371 Views | 1696 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by IDaggie06
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 4 • 5:38p, 10/21/24
4 said:
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
At 27% split we have a very competitive race. If Rs get over 29% you can lock it up for Trump, because Rs always win Election Day by a lot in PA.

If it gets over 33% you're talking about an ass whipping of epic proportions for that state.

Can you explain what the "split" is when referring to VBM ballots?


See will's tweet below your response.

It's the split between R/D and then people can model returns based on the previous days and past elections.

All of this plays into what the Democrats firewall is going into IPEV only. If it's less than 750k Trump has a very very good shot at winning. If it's less than 500k, it will be a Trump rout.
Reply Quote
5
4
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 5:40p, 10/21/24
AG
Thanks!
Reply Quote
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 4 • 5:41p, 10/21/24
No problem. I believe 2020 firewall was over a million. Trump lost by 80,000
Reply Quote
4
Kellso
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 5:47p, 10/21/24
will25u said:
Folks are angry and excited about the chance to get Trump back in office.
By voting early this is a chance to FIGHT the establishment and avenge the defeat of 2020.

Based on early voting figure that have been totaled so far Vegas is saying Trump has a 53% chance of winning back the White House.

If Detroit and Philadelphia continue to sit out this election Trump will cruise to a relatively easy victory.
Democrats have not been all that enthusiastic about voting early in the 24 election.

Reply Quote
4
1 edit
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:09p, 10/21/24
AG
Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:12p, 10/21/24
Reply Quote
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:16p, 10/21/24
AG
Again, Cook Political Report moved the PA Senate race from leans Dem to tossup. Even Cook can't deny there are big Dem problems in PA. Trump has coatails against Casey. A very longterm political family with a machine.
Reply Quote
5
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:40p, 10/21/24
AG
Final play on Florida for the day (and what a day it was).

Reply Quote
2
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:24p, 10/21/24
Reply Quote
1
gigemJTH12
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:28p, 10/21/24
AG
Why do Dems vote earlier than Republicans?
Reply Quote
AtticusMatlock
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gigemJTH12 • 7:51p, 10/21/24
gigemJTH12 said:
Why do Dems vote earlier than Republicans?


They put a huge focus on mail-in balloting in the states which allow it. If you think about it from a resources standpoint it's easier to get people to sign up for a mail-in ballot and it is way easier for them to drop it off in the mail or at a drop off point at some point in a few weeks leading up to the election than it is to try to round them up near election day to push them to the physical polls. It is convenient for voters. Yes, there are downsides but to the average voter especially a voter who may not be as motivated to drive and wait in line it's something that they can do in 5 minutes at home.

This is the first year the Republicans have been embracing mail in.

In terms of in-person voting I don't think they've got a big advantage there.
Reply Quote
1 edit
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:34p, 10/21/24

Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:37p, 10/21/24
Reply Quote
3
1 edit
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:51p, 10/21/24
Reply Quote
2023NCAggies
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to LMCane • 9:27p, 10/21/24
PA looks good
Reply Quote
2
2023NCAggies
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aginlakeway • 9:28p, 10/21/24
aginlakeway said:
cman1494 said:
Worried about Pennsylvania based on what I'm seeing…

What are you seeing?


Not a damn thing. The democrats FREAKING OUT???????

Pressler just got the registration down under 300k it's never been that close

Y'all need to chill
Reply Quote
1
2023NCAggies
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to LMCane • 9:31p, 10/21/24
LMCane said:
does the GOP always lead in early voting in Arizona?

because right now it seems we are crushing it and have a large lead.


No I believe they do not. Turning point of dominating there.

I think we're going to smash them LM. Victory party, you place
Reply Quote
1
2023NCAggies
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 9:37p, 10/21/24
will25u said:


Over that 30% mile marker. Keep it there and we win PA!!!!!!!!
Reply Quote
4
PA24
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:29p, 10/21/24
AG
I have never voted early, always voted on Election Day. Today, I voted.


What if all these early voters are people like me? Come Election Day, the expected pop has already voted?

Reply Quote
5
harge57
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PA24 • 10:34p, 10/21/24
AG
There very well maybe some of that "cannibilization", but I think it also shows a clear difference in enthusiasm.
Reply Quote
6
PA24
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to harge57 • 10:37p, 10/21/24
AG
harge57 said:
There very well maybe some of that "cannibilization", but I think it also shows a clear difference in enthusiasm.
That makes sense, and I agree.
Reply Quote
Stat Monitor Repairman
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:03p, 10/21/24
Harris County (Houston) posts record early voting numbers.
Reply Quote
1
AggieAces06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:12p, 10/21/24
AG
I think you're looking at the outstanding ballots, not what had been received.

Or am I wrong?
Reply Quote
2
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:45p, 10/21/24
AG
Reply Quote
3
txags92
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to harge57 • 12:09a, 10/22/24
AG
harge57 said:
There very well maybe some of that "cannibilization", but I think it also shows a clear difference in enthusiasm.
I thought there was some analysis posted yesterday looking at the "high propensity" vs "low propensity" voters on each side and the analysis was showing that the Ds were turning out their HP voters in bigger numbers while the LP R voters were making up a bigger portion of the early voting numbers. Also saw somebody saying that it wasn't that Rs were increasing their totals so much as it was Ds underperforming their previous numbers that was accounting for the swing. That would argue against cannibalism of Election Day voters by the Rs.
Reply Quote
2023NCAggies
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:30a, 10/22/24
Reply Quote
4
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:10a, 10/22/24
AG






Pretty good data so far, but I would not start measuring for the curtains quite yet.
Reply Quote
1
Gyles Marrett
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 2023NCAggies • 7:58a, 10/22/24
2023NCAggies said:
LMCane said:
does the GOP always lead in early voting in Arizona?

because right now it seems we are crushing it and have a large lead.


No I believe they do not. Turning point of dominating there.

I think we're going to smash them LM. Victory party, you place
Last few election cycles usually R's are quite a bit behind in early vote in AZ.....Not only are they not behind this year by much...they're ahead.
Reply Quote
LMCane
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:32a, 10/22/24
seeing other Tweets claiming the GOP is actually ahead in early ballots in both Arizona and Nevada

will only feel calm if we get up to 30% of all early returns in PA.

heading up again to Gettysburg a few times later in the week with the Trump car stickers and posters.
Reply Quote
10
Cedar Bayou Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:49a, 10/22/24
AG
Just voted in Fort Bend County. Took me five minutes to get it done with no wait

Richmond area Ags-Richmond Water Maintenance Facility is the place to go
Reply Quote
5
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:01a, 10/22/24
AG
NBC reporting Harris campaign 'concerned' about early voting in MI and NC. I think they have pulled spending in AZ and NV.



The gambling markets are also reflective of early voting at this point;


Note that the blue side of the twitterverse tends to oversimplify their 'fire wall' targets for EV.


Reply Quote
2
FTAG 2000
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:34a, 10/22/24
AG
Where are you seeing that they pulled funding in those states?
Reply Quote
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 9:42a, 10/22/24
AG
Rest of Rich Baris tweet.

Quote:
This is not some super secret formula or advanced mathematics. If the registration trends are moving against you, each cycle the "firewall" math changes, the very possibility of building a firewall dims.

Florida is a great example, albeit a more evolved one.

But these trends have been apparent in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona for some time now. People just chose to ignore them.

There is a point when a party hits an almost Event Horizon-like situation
The post mortem on this election will be epic, far surpassing the wailing and gnashing of teeth when Hillary lost. Especially so were Trump to narrowly win the popular vote, which I believe he has a good shot at that. Reasons are two fold: enough voter rolls have been cleaned up removing hundreds and hundreds of thousands of phantom voters. The Dem lawfare election game has not been as robust nor successful this cycle.
Reply Quote
9
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 10:06a, 10/22/24
AG
100 percent.



Again, it's not over, but…there is zero question which side is doing well vs. despondent.
Reply Quote
11
Kellso
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 10:11a, 10/22/24
nortex97 said:
100 percent.



Again, it's not over, but…there is zero question which side is doing well vs. despondent.
Kamala's campaign team at this very moment is sending emails to her most ardent supporters warning them that she is in grave danger of losing the election unless they cough up $5.

The Democrats are sensing defeat in the air. Only one side has voters that have been enthusiastic to vote in the 24 election.
Reply Quote
5
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.