Chinese Spy Balloon

94,608 Views | 1075 Replies | Last: 28 days ago by lb3
Faustus
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BadMoonRisin said:

redcrayon said:

TexAgs91 said:

redcrayon said:

Rapier108 said:

redcrayon said:

We can't just shoot stuff down and endanger civilians. That debris can kill people and destroy property.
When it was over Montana, there are virtually nothing for it to fall on. Should have been blasted out of the sky right then and there.

Actually, should have shot it down over the Aleutian Islands.
Why would we do that when we had disabled it's ability to gather and transmit data?

You can't predict where the debris will land. This isn't that simple.

Actually, we can. Ever heard of physics?
I guess you should call the Pentagon and let them know that you are better at physics than they are. I'm sure they'd love your assistance since they're all idiots.


Lmao. We put a man on the moon more than 50 years ago and now we can't figure out how to pop a balloon.
. . .
We don't even know what the frequency is.
gigemags-99
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AG
Faustus said:

BadMoonRisin said:

redcrayon said:

TexAgs91 said:

redcrayon said:

Rapier108 said:

redcrayon said:

We can't just shoot stuff down and endanger civilians. That debris can kill people and destroy property.
When it was over Montana, there are virtually nothing for it to fall on. Should have been blasted out of the sky right then and there.

Actually, should have shot it down over the Aleutian Islands.
Why would we do that when we had disabled it's ability to gather and transmit data?

You can't predict where the debris will land. This isn't that simple.

Actually, we can. Ever heard of physics?
I guess you should call the Pentagon and let them know that you are better at physics than they are. I'm sure they'd love your assistance since they're all idiots.


Lmao. We put a man on the moon more than 50 years ago and now we can't figure out how to pop a balloon.
. . .
We don't even know what the frequency is.


I'll ask Kenneth.
LMCane
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aggielostinETX said:

So it seems the former military guys here all agree that we should not have shoot it down prior to this. Why did we even let it get here?

This seems like a massive **** up by our military to allow it to even get over our air space. Explain that.

That's what I mean by carrying the water. Y'all seem to be defending, poor performance and bad decisions.
I was a Captain in Air Force Intelligence 14N3-

don't lump me in with whoever else claims they are former military

we absolutely should have shot this down as soon as it entered US territorail airspace around Alaska
K2-HMFIC
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So you're saying immediately shooting it down over land was more important the tracking it, monitoring the SIGINT/EMINT coming off of it, then shooting it down over water to make our recovery of actionable material possible?
Bobaloo
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"Joe shot that MOFO down! Nobody messes with a Biden." -Concerned Moderate
eric76
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K2-HMFIC said:

So you're saying immediately shooting it down over land was more important the tracking it, monitoring the SIGINT/EMINT coming off of it, then shooting it down over water to make our recovery of actionable material possible?
Isn't it reasonable to assume that any electric emissions from the device were encrypted? The equipment itself, unharmed, could at least give us information about the capabilities of the payload.

But yeah, shooting it down immediately would certainly reduce whatever intelligence they are getting from it unless, of course, the intelligence they are looking for is how fast we can shoot it down.
1872walker
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45-70Ag
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1872walker said:


Gilligan
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aggiedata said:




Why not pop the balloon and let it drop?

Recover what you can. Why hit the payload?

Is the payload the only thing that can be targeted? Just curious as to what's being aimed at by the raptor.
Not a Bot
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About 20 years ago there was a giant weather balloon that flew off course out of control over Canada and a bunch of F-18s tried to shoot it down with their cannon rounds. They had to fire something like 1000 rounds into the balloon before it finally deflated. Cannon rounds are designed to explode on the impact, but the balloon doesn't provide the surface for the sensor to explode the round. So basically you have a bunch of small punctures in a large thick low-pressure balloon which causes slow air leaks and very slow deflation.

This one had enough structure for a heat-seeking seeking missile to hone in on it from short range. It was likely the only way they could get it down in a way that would allow for a drop over a relatively small area.
Gilligan
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Thank you!
ttu_85
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Not a Bot said:

About 20 years ago there was a giant weather balloon that flew off course out of control over Canada and a bunch of F-18s tried to shoot it down with their cannon rounds. They had to fire something like 1000 rounds into the balloon before it finally deflated. Cannon rounds are designed to explode on the impact, but the balloon doesn't provide the surface for the sensor to explode the round. So basically you have a bunch of small punctures in a large thick low-pressure balloon which causes slow air leaks and very slow deflation.

This one had enough structure for a heat-seeking seeking missile to hone in on it from short range. It was likely the only way they could get it down in a way that would allow for a drop over a relatively small area.
Modern AA missiles rarely hit a target. They detonate in proximity of a target using fragment and atmospheric concussion to destroy a target-- usually one moving a high speed-- another fighter. However radar proximity detonation should work just as well in this case given this balloon was carrying a big chunk of hardware on its underside.

Now one of you fighter jock can answer the question. "Can a pilot adjust the distance of detonation from the target on the fly, no pun intended?

If so forget the Vulcan and just shot the thing in the side of the ass, say from either roughly 165 or 190 degrees with a slammer and be done with it. The balloon deflates while this thing goes down in Eastern Montana where the average pop density is less than 2 persons per square mile.
StandUpforAmerica
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Ellis Wyatt
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That balloon may as well have been a Chinese nutsack dragged across Joe Biden's face very publicly for days.
88planoAg
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Not a Bot said:

About 20 years ago there was a giant weather balloon that flew off course out of control over Canada and a bunch of F-18s tried to shoot it down with their cannon rounds. They had to fire something like 1000 rounds into the balloon before it finally deflated. Cannon rounds are designed to explode on the impact, but the balloon doesn't provide the surface for the sensor to explode the round. So basically you have a bunch of small punctures in a large thick low-pressure balloon which causes slow air leaks and very slow deflation.

This one had enough structure for a heat-seeking seeking missile to hone in on it from short range. It was likely the only way they could get it down in a way that would allow for a drop over a relatively small area.
Are you referring to the balloon material being thick?
G Martin 87
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91Challenger said:

Several unanswered questions, as far as I know.

What kind of sensors did it have? Optical? IR? SIGINT? (If so, what systems/wavelengths was it looking to exploit?) COMINT? (Again, what systems were they trying to exploit?). LIDAR/ground mapping? Radar? Ground-penetrating radar? These are all very important questions to ask.

Next, what did it do with the data collected? Was it sent off board immediately or was the data only stored on board? If the payload was not transmitting, then no reason to worry. However, given the volatile nature of data recovery from a balloon, I assume the system was actively transmitting data.

So, if it was actively transmitting, did we intercept the signals it was sending? And if we did, could we break their encryption to see what they know? orrrr were we able to jam their signal?

Finally, on destruction, did they hit the balloon or the payload? I'm sure you would attempt to hit the balloon in hopes of retrieving and exploiting the payload. So, what optimizes your chances of payload recovery? A water landing or hitting the ground?

Lots to ponder, and these are the questions our press should be asking, and I'm sure this was the discussion going on inside the DOD.
These are questions that our military should be asking, but definitely NOT be answering publicly. Chinese would love to know what our capabilities are; that's undoubtedly one of the mission goals for this thing. Why give them answers they may not have?
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Should have sent the tic-tac ufo to deal with the spy balloon.
Not a Bot
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Weather balloons are made from latex.



Not sure what the Chinese balloon was made out of.
88planoAg
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Not a Bot said:

Weather balloons are made from latex.



Not sure what the Chinese balloon was made out of.
Nope. Super thin plastic. Many times thinner than kitchen trash bags.
Not a Bot
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I just really wanted to post that picture.
88planoAg
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Not a Bot said:

I just really wanted to post that picture.
Gotchya.
BadMoonRisin
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mike0305 said:

Multiple sources claiming the balloon thing happened during the Trump admin as well, so Reps also sat on their hands and kept silent. Maybe not all of them knew, but calling out Dems at this point after it blew up in public is just political grandstanding, they were just as much wusses when at the wheel.


Oh horse*****
moses84
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I am passing along an email thread from The MERGE

The Beginning

ICYMI: A high-altitude balloon launched from China made its way across the Pacific, over Alaska (Jan 28th), through Canada (Jan 30th), and into the continental US (Jan 31st).

The threat seemed a bit inflated, so on Wednesday (Feb 1st), the Air Force launched 2 test-fleet F-22s (callsigns Rambo and Raptor) to fly from Nellis AFB, Nevada, to Montana to "intercept" it.

However, the US decided not to shoot it down due to the risk of falling debris.

The Middle

The US pressed China on the balloon, forcing China to claim ownership…but declared it an errant weather balloon.

By Thursday (Feb 2nd), the US clapped back that it was indeed a surveillance balloon with a rudimentary payload (no other details were offered, but here is a great HD photo to see the payload).

Behind the scenes, NORTHCOM and NASA were modeling the wind projections and debris pattern to inform a White House decision on whether to shoot it down over land or water.

That meant a waiting game until it drifted over the Atlantic, which gave the Air Force a few days to coordinate the shootdown.

F-22s would be the shooter due to the Raptor's unique ability to fly high into the bozosphere, beyond what mortal fighter jets are capable of.

The End

Early Saturday morning (Feb 4th), the balloon was spotted over the Carolinas, and aviation sleuths noticed the FAA had issued a massive Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) off the coast of South Carolina that blocked all civilian traffic.

We'll let the dust settle for the final list of military assets put into motion to shoot down a simple balloon, but we're tracking: F-15Cs, F-22s, numerous tankers, an E-3 AWACS, 1 Navy P-8 Poseidon, 1 Coast Guard C-130, 4 Navy ships, and a partridge in a pear tree.

Anyhoo, once the order was given, F-22s lit the burners, climbed above 50,000 feet, and lined up for the shot.

Due to the altitude, the Raptor had to use a missile. Why: the stealthy F-22 is restricted from shooting its gun above 50,000 feet due to the design limits of the gun door (when the trigger is pulled, the door pops open, exposing the gun barrel to shoot).

The balloon was somewhere around 60-65,000 feet, and the lead Raptor took the shot at 58,000 feet.

Fox 2! The pilot fired an AIM-9X, which uses an imaging IR (IIR) Focal Plane Array (FPA) seeker, the same tech used in sensitive thermal cameras. Here's a sweet video showing the AIM-9X shacking the balloon payload and subsequently popping the balloon.

The balloon's payload is now sitting in 47 feet of water; the Navy and Coast Guard are working on retrieving the payload.


The Flail

The payload on the balloon is probably trivial for intelligence gathering, but that's not the big takeaway here.

The mere act of sending a balloon from China over the US is a fantastic way to mess with your adversarythe exact kind of grey-zone shadiness we'd cook up.

China got to probe public reactions and government responses with almost zero risk.

In the process, it consumed the attention of US media and citizens all week, forced the US military into dozens of meetings from the Pentagon to the flight line, consumed 1,000+ man-hours, and spent millions of dollars in military operating costs…to deal with a single balloon.

Well played, China. Well played.



Fun Fact: The F-22s flew with the callsign Frank. Why: the F-22s were from the 27th Fighter Squadron and have air combat lineage going back over 100 years to a guy named Frank Lukethe first airman awarded the Medal of Honor and famous for shooting down balloons during World War I. The 27th Fighter Squadron "Fightin' Eagles" proudly carry that heritage todaytheir mascot is a cherished stuffed toy eagle named Frank. We'd bet money that Frank was in the cockpit for the shot.


Parting thought: The F-22's 58,000 AIM-9X shot against the ~60,000-foot target may be the highest altitude air-to-air kill in history. For the record, balloons have been considered valid kills since World War I.
TequilaMockingbird
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Quote:

mike0305 said:

Multiple sources claiming the balloon thing happened during the Trump admin as well, so Reps also sat on their hands and kept silent. Maybe not all of them knew, but calling out Dems at this point after it blew up in public is just political grandstanding, they were just as much wusses when at the wheel.

Refuted by multiple sources.
eric76
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AG
Not a Bot said:

Weather balloons are made from latex.



Not sure what the Chinese balloon was made out of.
We found a large balloon in a pasture about the time I was in junior high. It had something like a thin, aluminum foil coating. Was that not a weather balloon? There was no payload attached to it so there wasn't much to look at.

We always assumed it was a weather balloon.
fka ftc
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Two questions.

On the cannon rounds that only explode on impact. When an F-22 or similar rolls off a couple thousand rounds air to air, where do these things land and do they explode on contact with earth (assuming gravity applies to cannon rounds).

And surely during Great China Balloon Twour, did this thing not fly over a missile / artillery range where risk of hitting civilians is essentially eliminated?

And how the hell could we not commandeer the signal to steer this thing and guide it in for a nice little landing?
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
eric76
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fka ftc said:

And how the hell could we not commandeer the signal to steer this thing and guide it in for a nice little landing?
I don't know what they did, but it would be possible for the software to require that all incoming commands be encrypted and/or signed to validate that any commands are authentic. If they did that, then we would not be able to command it to do anything unless we had the private keys necessary to encrypt the commands.

Note. This is just one possibility. I would never think that they would not have some method of verifying the commands.
TRADUCTOR
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Should of launched a big attack balloon carrying dude with parachute and stick wearing Red Bull helmet.
fka ftc
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Anything designed by man can be circumvented by man. So not buying any encryption nonsense.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
Decay
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fka ftc said:

Anything designed by man can be circumvented by man. So not buying any encryption nonsense.

Given enough time maybe. Only had a few days
fka ftc
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Username: tiktokbeeeches
Password: we****onyou247

But if encryption could not be broken, this underscores taking it down in a more recoverable area regardless of potential for property damage or even loss of life.

Biden had no issue letting 13 US soldiers die for a political point to be scored. Then doubled down by drone striking an innocent man and his family.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
TequilaMockingbird
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I'm just curious.....if a few Chinese warplanes were to show up over Montana, is Biden going to wait until they're over the Atlantic to shoot them down?
fka ftc
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No, that would be direct aggression to Xi and he is not authorized by the Chairman for such public affronts.

I heard this morning they were scrambling to get it down before the 12 mile territory limit to avoid being called to carpet by China at the UN for violation of International laws.

Just let that sink in. Biden was SCARED of UN and Xi reaction if shot down at mile 13 over international waters.

There is NO defending that action.

Oh, and Cory Booker tried to repeat that Trump balloon nonsense with no challenge from Chuck for details. Lies lies and more lies from the left.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Quote:

We'll let the dust settle for the final list of military assets put into motion to shoot down a simple balloon, but we're tracking: F-15Cs, F-22s, numerous tankers, an E-3 AWACS, 1 Navy P-8 Poseidon, 1 Coast Guard C-130, 4 Navy ships, and a partridge in a pear tree.
AI art generator to design campaign service medal for units involved in spy balloon response.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Spy balloon set to be the hottest Halloween costume of 2023.
 
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