Interesting article about Covid in Africa:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why

Quote:

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Although Africa reported its millionth official COVID-19 case last week, it seems to have weathered the pandemic relatively well so far, with fewer than one confirmed case for every thousand people and just 23,000 deaths so far. Yet several antibody surveys suggest far more Africans have been infected with the coronavirusa discrepancy that is puzzling scientists around the continent.

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several possible factors in play:

Quote:

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Marina Polln of the Carlos III Health Institute in Madrid, who led Spain's antibody survey, says Africa's youthfulness may protect it. Spain's median age is 45; in Kenya and Malawi, it's 20 and 18, respectively. Young people around the world are far less likely to get severely ill or die from the virus. And the population in Kenya's cities, where the pandemic first took hold, skews even younger than the country as a whole, says Thumbi Mwangi, an epidemiologist at the University of Nairobi.

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Quote:

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Jambo is exploring the hypothesis that Africans have had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds in humans, which may provide some defense against COVID-19. Another possibility is that regular exposure to malaria or other infectious diseases could prime the immune system to fight new pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, Boum adds. Barasa, on the other hand, suspects genetic factors protect the Kenyan population from severe disease.

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and there's discussion about allowed for herd immunity:

Quote:

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If tens of millions of Africans have already been infected, that raises the question of whether the continent should try for "herd immunity" without a vaccine, Boum saysthe controversial idea of letting the virus run its course to allow the population to become immune, perhaps while shielding the most vulnerable. That might be preferable over control measures that cripple economies and could harm public health more in the long run. "Maybe Africa can afford it," given its apparent low death to infection ratio, Boum says. "We need to dig into that."

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Also very interesting stuff. I've often wondered what masking up and keeping our children distanced does to their immune systems to fight off other things. This might have legs seeing as how Africa can potentially withstand this because of previous diseases, including other coronaviruses. But this is just pure speculation.

Like the poster above me says though, age is a big key. But it's still why I'm a proponent of the 0-50 crowd operating as normal while shielding the elderly. 50s and 60s are in between and can make their own choices, too. Just make sure to shield 65 and up as best we can. Build immunity within the community. It's risky, but I tend to think it's the best way still.

Quote:

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Prof. Udi Qimron will soon head the Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University.

In an interview with Yediot Ahronot, Qimron shed further light on the coronavirus. "There is a very great interest for anyone who has supported the draconian measures taken around the world to say that Sweden's policy has failed. Because if it succeeded, and trillions went down the drain for no reason, someone will have to answer for it."

"That is why all over the world they prefer to claim that [Sweden] was wrong. But in the end, the truth came to the surface. In a world where decision makers, their advisers and the media were able to admit their mistake and the initial panic that gripped them, we would have long since returned to routine. The ongoing destruction due to the inability to admit this mistake, despite the epidemic's small mortality numbers, is outrageous. History will judge the hysteria."

"If we had not been told that there was an epidemic in the country, you would not have known there was such an epidemic and you would not have done anything about it," he said emphatically. "The fact that this issue runs all day in the media inflates it beyond its natural dimensions. If black death had raged here, as in the 14th century, you would not have had to follow the situation in the news, the bodies would have piled up in the streets. We were not and we are not in this situation today."

Prof. Qimron noted that the total number of coronavirus deaths does not exceed 0.1% of the total population in any country, and the death rate from coronavirus is less than 0.01% of the total world population, meaning that 99.99% of the world's population so far has survived the epidemic and the virus is negligibly lethal.

He said smart behavior would be the opposite of what we do today; Populations not at risk should become infected and create chains of immunity, which will protect the sick and the elderly. We are currently working for sweeping social distancing, which prevents such differential immunity, he said.

He went on to explain that infection of children is a welcome thing, because it protects at-risk populations. "For the same reason, I would open up the whole education system, because the vast majority is made up of people who are not at risk. Of course a solution needs to be found for teachers suffering from diabetes or other background diseases, but I see no reason to prevent activities that encourage the economy. Not only because it allows parents to go to work, but also because it lowers mortality in the long run. I would also ask children and young people to take off their masks. Of course, it is impossible to force a child to take off a mask, but proper information will do the job."

"At the same time, I would call on at-risk populations, our parents and people with background illnesses, to avoid social gatherings in the coming months until we reach the appropriate immune depth. It is possible and desirable to recommend at-risk populations to wear masks. I would also open the skies and abolish the isolation obligation for those returning from abroad. With the situation of carriers abroad compared to within Israel, there is no reason to isolate tourists, just as you and I are not isolated even though we have an even higher probability than that of a random tourist from abroad to be a carrier. These are things that got into our minds four months ago and we do not understand that their time has passed," he added.

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https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/285341

Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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Prof. Udi Qimron will soon head the Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University.
In an interview with Yediot Ahronot, Qimron shed further light on the coronavirus. "There is a very great interest for anyone who has supported the draconian measures taken around the world to say that Sweden's policy has failed. Because if it succeeded, and trillions went down the drain for no reason, someone will have to answer for it."

"That is why all over the world they prefer to claim that [Sweden] was wrong. But in the end, the truth came to the surface. In a world where decision makers, their advisers and the media were able to admit their mistake and the initial panic that gripped them, we would have long since returned to routine. The ongoing destruction due to the inability to admit this mistake, despite the epidemic's small mortality numbers, is outrageous. History will judge the hysteria."

"If we had not been told that there was an epidemic in the country, you would not have known there was such an epidemic and you would not have done anything about it," he said emphatically. "The fact that this issue runs all day in the media inflates it beyond its natural dimensions. If black death had raged here, as in the 14th century, you would not have had to follow the situation in the news, the bodies would have piled up in the streets. We were not and we are not in this situation today."

Prof. Qimron noted that the total number of coronavirus deaths does not exceed 0.1% of the total population in any country, and the death rate from coronavirus is less than 0.01% of the total world population, meaning that 99.99% of the world's population so far has survived the epidemic and the virus is negligibly lethal.

He said smart behavior would be the opposite of what we do today; Populations not at risk should become infected and create chains of immunity, which will protect the sick and the elderly. We are currently working for sweeping social distancing, which prevents such differential immunity, he said.

He went on to explain that infection of children is a welcome thing, because it protects at-risk populations. "For the same reason, I would open up the whole education system, because the vast majority is made up of people who are not at risk. Of course a solution needs to be found for teachers suffering from diabetes or other background diseases, but I see no reason to prevent activities that encourage the economy. Not only because it allows parents to go to work, but also because it lowers mortality in the long run. I would also ask children and young people to take off their masks. Of course, it is impossible to force a child to take off a mask, but proper information will do the job."

"At the same time, I would call on at-risk populations, our parents and people with background illnesses, to avoid social gatherings in the coming months until we reach the appropriate immune depth. It is possible and desirable to recommend at-risk populations to wear masks. I would also open the skies and abolish the isolation obligation for those returning from abroad. With the situation of carriers abroad compared to within Israel, there is no reason to isolate tourists, just as you and I are not isolated even though we have an even higher probability than that of a random tourist from abroad to be a carrier. These are things that got into our minds four months ago and we do not understand that their time has passed," he added.

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https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/285341

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A lot of us have been saying the same things for months. It's a complete failure by the media to provide news with proper context, by healthcare officials to do the same, and, especially, by political leaders at all levels of govt.

It became a race for bottom line covid deaths, and when you publicize things this much, politician's don't want to lose. Or risk the perception of losing

It wasn't about what was best for each state or country as a whole. I've said it a few times, 99% of families will have to deal with something worse than covid this year. We are one with a non covid death in the family. A very select few will be affected worse by covid than the reaction to covid.

PJYoung said:

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I don't think Sweden's COVID story can be written for a couple of years. It is possible that they front-end loaded their excess deaths into 2020 and that in 2021/2022 they will have significantly fewer deaths than would have been expected with a three year actuarial analysis starting at the beginning of 2020.

The 55k number is about right, but what the article does NOT do is make clear the margin. Which would seem to be important if discussing "the most deaths in 150 years!", I would think? Was it by 1 death? 100? 1000? More?

Here's roughly what happened for January through the first of August.




And how about deaths per capita? Since Sweden today has more people that it did even ten years ago. And more old people, too. And if you normalize for population size, there really is no margin. The year 2020 was a bit more than some recent years, but not nearly as bad as a few decades ago.

Keegan99 said:

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The 55k number is about right, but what the article does NOT do is make clear the margin. Which would seem to be important if discussing "the most deaths in 150 years!", I would think? Was it by 1 death? 100? 1000? More?

Here's roughly what happened for January through the first of August.




And how about deaths per capita? Since Sweden today has more people that it did even ten years ago. And more old people, too. And if you normalize for population size, there really is no margin. The year 2020 was a bit more than some recent years, but not nearly as bad as a few decades ago.

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So minimal increases in total deaths and significantly better economic results than their neighbors. Why exactly are people still trying to argue against the Sweden approach?

SirLurksALot said:

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Keegan99 said:

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The 55k number is about right, but what the article does NOT do is make clear the margin. Which would seem to be important if discussing "the most deaths in 150 years!", I would think? Was it by 1 death? 100? 1000? More?

Here's roughly what happened for January through the first of August.




And how about deaths per capita? Since Sweden today has more people that it did even ten years ago. And more old people, too. And if you normalize for population size, there really is no margin. The year 2020 was a bit more than some recent years, but not nearly as bad as a few decades ago.

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So minimal increases in total deaths and significantly better economic results than their neighbors. Why exactly are people still trying to argue against the Sweden approach?

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Because 80%+ of people just react on emotions and/or are idiots

Certain people have to justify the lock downs and the fear mongering.

That simple.

DadHammer said:

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Certain people have to justify the lock downs and the fear mongering.

That simple.

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Isn't cognitive bias a wonderful thing. If you decided or supported the lockdown decision and it turns out to not have really been necessary or helpful, then you have to acknowledge that the economic destruction, increase in suicides, child abuse, hunger, etc was not necessary.

Also note how the headline shifts for maximum propaganda value.

In the first part, it uses non-per-capita all-cause deaths. This in and of itself is outright schlock - Sweden had more deaths this year than Sweden in 1950? Wow! Deaths for every western country have followed an increasing trendline in recent centuries. Because population has increased!

In the second part, it shifts to coronavirus deaths, which then introduces the error of classification across borders. An honest analysis would look at EuroMomo all-cause mortality by country.

But the press is not interested in that.

Updated all cause mortality from October through July.

This was a bad flu season for Sweden, after an exceedingly mild 2018-2019.

Just to put a final nail in the propaganda from Reuters.

fig96 said:

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DadHammer said:

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Certain people have to justify the lock downs and the fear mongering.

That simple.

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Some of us also don't have an obsessive need to be right.

It sucks if it turns out we didn't need to lock down like we did.

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Of course we didn't "need" to lockdown. This was never in question. Even a worst case scenario of 2.2 million dead means 327 million live and we are all but done with this thing now. While that's a high number and said for the less than 5% of families it would have effected, in reality, 95+% of the world would likely have been better off never having known there was anything more than a flu going around if this wasn't publicized. Or at the least, if nationally, we would have come out and just said a bad flu is going around this year that we expect to hit more of the population than normal. To protect yourself, here is what you can do and here are the ages it seems to affect most. No fear mongering. No media involved. No politics. Just an individual choice for each person and their family. I'm still a firm believer in that. This isn't the black plague or ebola spreading like wildfire. Our country would have not only survived, but our population would have continued to increase and the average age of death change remained unnoticeable even if we did absolutely nothing. You wouldn't have the side effects of the virus, other than maybe hospitals cancelling an appointment you had due to lack of staffing. Okay, maybe a few more in there would have issues with much needed surgeries. So you'd have to factor that in. Otherwise, the vast majority of us would have never known this was going on and would be better off, with a much shorter road to recovery as a nation as a whole.

Instead, we have our most divided nation of our lifetime, morale at an all time low in my lifetime, children's morale and future more unknown, more people out of work than ever before in my life(I think), etc.

So now it just comes down to emotion, and what you feel is better. All the fallout we have received, or...... let's say if we did NOTHING, we end up with 800k dead. Instead, by the time a vaccine comes, we end up with 300k dead by locking down, wearing masks, and all the social distancing rules now required. Some say yes, to save those 500k were well worth all the other destruction. Some would say no, it wasn't worth going through all of that for our society as a whole in the long run. And it's very rare you'll get everyone in agreement.

But one this is for certain. There was never a "need" to lockdown. Just a difference of opinion in what is best for society as a whole, and even the smartest people in the world can't come to an agreement there.

I think the total number of deaths will be about the same Over a 12 month period if we did nothing but what you just posted. We will see. Every single area that comes out of a lock down has the same spike in cases so in reality they just delayed the deaths.

I downloaded the Swedish all-cause data myself from here:
https://www.scb.se/om-scb/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/scb-publicerar-preliminar-statistik-over-doda-i-sverige/

Ran it through the same exact analysis that I did in this post:
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3126261

Below is what I found:




For comparison:
Texas



and US overall: