Do you think that has to do with the recent study about T cell response and lack of antibodies?

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You were out here definitively saying that the deaths for COVID would definitely be less than 60,000

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Yep. IHME used fraudulent Chinese data to predict. My bad for trusting the "experts".

The fact that we have to deal with three different graphs so the "narrative" can be set is disgusting in the first place.

"Source: FT analysis of mortality data"

Tautological citations!


The graph I posted has data from http://www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se/pxweb/sv/ssd/START__BE_BE0101__BE101G/ManadFoddDod/

Keegan,

Two seconds of research. Financial Times CV analysis is here:https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Found at the bottom of the page:

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https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

SOURCES Unless otherwise stated, national-level case and deaths data comes from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Data for the US its territories comes from the Covid Tracking Project. Data for UK deaths data comes from the Department of Health and Social Care. Data for Spain comes from the Institute of Health Carlos III . Previous versions of this page used data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering and Worldometer. Regional-level case and deaths data comes from official sources or verified local aggregation projects: the Covid Tracking Project (for US states), Montera34 (Spain), the Italian Department of Civil Protection, Public Health France, Jan-Philip Gehrcke (Germany), Canton of Zurich Statistical Office (Switzerland and Liechtenstein), the Public Health Agency of Sweden, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the National Health Commission of China, and Tom E. White (UK). The full excess mortality dataset used for this analysis is freely available for download on Github. It is compiled from data originally produced by: Statistics Austria, Sciensano (Belgium), the Civil Registry of Brazil, the Chilean Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge, and Innovation, Statistics Denmark, the Civil Registry of Ecuador, Statistics Finland, the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (current and historic data), the German Federal Statistical Office, Statistics Iceland, Jakarta Provincial Park and Forest Service, the Israeli Ministry of Health, the Italian National Institute of Statistics, Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Norway, the Peruvian Ministry of Health, the Portuguese Directorate-General for Health, the Russian Federal State Statistic Service, the City of Moscow, the St Petersburg Civil Registry Committee, the South African Medical Research Council, the Spanish Institute of Health Carlos III, Statistics Sweden, the Swiss Federal Statistics Office, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, the UK Office for National Statistics (current and historic data for England and Wales), National Records of Scotland, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, and the US National Center for Health Statistics. Help us improve these charts: Please email coronavirus-data@ft.com with feedback, requests or tips about additional sources of national or municipal all-cause mortality data. Thank you to the many readers who have already helped us with feedback and suggestions. We continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day. We will respond to as many people as possible.

Keegan99 said:

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"Source: FT analysis of mortality data"

Tautological citations!


The graph I posted has data from http://www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se/pxweb/sv/ssd/START__BE_BE0101__BE101G/ManadFoddDod/

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Dont forget this project is the self-proclaimed 'best measure for international comparisons of Covid deaths' even though there are known inconsistencies with COVID-death tracking within hospitals, by doctors and among cities and states within the US alone. I'm not sure how one can easily compare data between countries when there are different definitions of "COVID death" between people, institutions and countries. I'm not exactly sure what the end-goal of this project is supposed to be.

The FT reporting does not rely on COVID coding, it is reporting on changes in all-causes death.

HotardAg07 said:

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The FT reporting does not rely on COVID coding, it is reporting on changes in all-causes death.

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Maybe I'm just being dense but I dont think that's accurate at all. The author even admits as much in the twitter feed:

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We're tracking Covid deaths, in this particular case using excess deaths as a proxy. If total deaths fall due to e.g fewer road deaths & homicides as in South Africa, that's great news, but it doesn't mean they had negative Covid deaths.

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The issue I have is that COVID deaths are inconsistency measures across locations but also they are not taking into account what others refer to as 'negative deaths' (lives saved due to COVID-related shutdowns). It just appears inconsistent in its measurement from the start. Also wouldn't we like to see per capita figures? So again I'm not sure what the end point of the exercise is and don't get me wrong, I think it's kinda cool but I'm not sure what value it adds.


editing to add: I think I have a better grasp of the excess death proposition the FT is claiming and again I think it's cool but I'm not sure what exactly it's telling us. COVID is obviously pulling forward deaths. As has been asked numerous times (I think by Keegan and others) how many of COVID deaths would have died were going to die anyways over the next 6-24 months? If the number is different than a random walk, why?

Also I'm not sure why they show 65,700 excessive deaths in the UK and only 43,000 confirmed deaths. Why the large disparity. The difference is only 7,000 (122k vs. 115k) in the US. There does seems to be a positive bias toward excessive deaths versus confirmed deaths but they aren't reducing lives saved as negative deaths so something else has to be going on in the figures. Are COVID deaths being over-reported or under-reported?

Deaths in Sweden have dropped big time. Are they actually near herd immunity?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

The curve in the death graph looks familiar.

DadHammer said:

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Deaths in Sweden have dropped big time. Are they actually near herd immunity?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

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They had their highest number of new cases recorded on June 24th, recently, but I have to assume that is because they are testing way more and/or testing a smartly targeted group of people.

I do think deaths is the ultimate measurement since it is death we fear, not getting sick, and the deaths/day curve looks very similar in many places with outbreaks. AS long as deaths have been recorded with the same criteria throughout the pandemic, that should mean either it spread way more quickly than we could detect and the at risk population was hit early and those at most risk died - but with them no longer in the population, death rate drops. OR it means we are treating it much better than early on, early on it was heavy ventilator usage and other treatments and maybe current treatments are more effective. OR it means the virus has become less deadly than it was early on, which I've read isn't uncommon in novel virus outbreaks.

But yes, based on that deaths per day curve, it seems they have reached herd immunity or one of the other explanations above has applied, not matter the explanation it means they are way past the worst of this Covid outbreak in their country. (Unless they did social distance way more than I realize and if they change that behavior it might spike up a little again, but that doesn't sound like it is true)

TImeline of Diamond Princess: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7156812/

(just for data and analysis, no commentary)

There was a German ski village that reported 42% infected last week - or I should say, 42% who tested positive for antibodies. But if it is felt we can't distinguish between antibodies for COvid 19 from antibodies for other coronaviruses, perhaps that number has no meaning. HAving said that, I don't think we should necessarily believe the 20% burnout statement, at least not as it is stated. I do think that when the deaths start dropping greatly is when we THINK 20% have been infected, but it could be a higher percentage that what we think. Not that it matters necessarily, based on deaths per day the virus seems to burn through a population in 4-10 weeks.

Don't forget, Sweden is counting more deaths than its neighbors.

So hard to compare.

DadHammer said:

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Don't forget, Sweden is counting more deaths than its neighbors.

So hard to compare.

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Source?

Go through the thread there are references all over this thread.

Sweden is pretty aggressive with counting COVID fatalities.

https://www.barrons.com/news/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-pass-4-000-health-authorities-01590408903

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State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the Public Health Agency stressed countries' death tolls should be compared with caution.

"In Sweden, anybody who has the diagnosis of COVID-19 and dies within 30 days after that is called a COVID-19 case, irrespective of the actual cause of death. And we know that in many other countries there are other ways of counting that are used," he told AFP.

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Thread discussing some of the Nordic data, from an all-cause fatality perspective.

DadHammer said:

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Don't forget, Sweden is counting more deaths than its neighbors.

So hard to compare.

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I don't doubt that, but I do doubt they're inflating numbers enough to have per capita deaths over 5 times higher.

It has been answered multiple times earlier in the thread.

Thank you, I don't feel a obligated to keep reposting things already pointed out way back in the discussion. People need to read through the discussions themselves and not expect everyone to go back for them.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Looking at new infections - they spiked in June but are coming down again.

The death rate 7 day average is down to about 3.

Just looking at the graphs covid in Sweden is either over or just about over. Took about 12 weeks to build and then die off. So lots of hope the rest of the world sees the same approximately 12 week burn and then it dissipates. Tough 12 weeks for people though.

Still praying for a treatment breakthrough to end this sooner.

Yes, Houston has a density of 3k per square mile. Stockholm is 18k.

Helps explain why Houston is likely to fare a bit better.

Already we are seeing this, as Texas all-cause death rate is below expectation for February through June, at 98% of expected per the CDC.

(See table 2 here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)

But in fairness, we're not really out of the ordinary in that respect. Most of the country is at or below all-cause death expectations.

Doesn't look like the "offset by fewer automobile deaths" theory holds much water.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-roads-are-quieter-due-to-coronavirus-but-there-are-more-fatal-car-crashes-11588152600

http://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2020/05/04/massachusetts-roadway-deaths-coronavirus

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/20/859829779/as-states-locked-down-in-march-motor-vehicle-fatality-rate-spiked-by-14

https://abc7.com/traffic-fatalities-california-highway-patrol-speeding-covid-19/6198603/


The absolute number of traffic accidents did fall, reducing claims, but fatalities didn't budge that much, if at all. And in many locations roadway fatalities increased.

Interesting. Maybe we can add that to stress-related when it's all said and done.

Come to think of it, I remember early in the lockdown having to drive to Fedex before they closed to get a package I missed. Coming home at just after 8:00 PM I-45 was the damn autobahn. I always drive pretty fast (5-10 over limit) and dudes were blowing by. I chalked it up to bored kids not having school the next day.