Good post

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says

cone said:

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if Sweden can't get above 7% seroprevalence while doing what they're doing, what does that say about the disease?

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More evidence for the vitamin D hypothesis? And the sterilization of sunlight? Days in Stockholm right now are lengthy. And if people are outside and in the sun, it's just not going to spread that effectively.

PJYoung said:

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cone said:

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if Sweden can't get above 7% seroprevalence while doing what they're doing, what does that say about the disease?

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I would say it's very encouraging.

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Is it? Im guessing the Swedes were hoping to take their lumps and get this over with quickly. If this is still dragging along when winter arrives it could get ugly.

I've worked with a lot of Swedes, and they've got funny euphemisms for all the illnesses they get when stuck inside together over the long winter. Norovirus is known as the " winter vomiting" there since every gets it.

PJYoung said:

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cone said:

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if Sweden can't get above 7% seroprevalence while doing what they're doing, what does that say about the disease?

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I would say it's very encouraging.

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Is it? Im guessing the Swedes were hoping to take their lumps and get this over with quickly. If this is still dragging along when winter arrives it could get ugly.

I've worked with a lot of Swedes, and they've got funny euphemisms for all the illnesses they get when stuck inside together over the long winter. Norovirus is known as the " winter vomiting" there since everyone gets it.

That's even more reason for them to continue as normal. The last thing they need is everyone cooped up together.

The slow steady spread they are getting will protect from a massive lockdown induced spread event.

Another thing to not forget is that Sweden's neighbors are not counting as many dead as Sweden. How you count really matters. Look at the Sweden curves, they are doing just fine.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Italy and Spain are mostly out of it now.

amercer said:

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PJYoung said:

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cone said:

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if Sweden can't get above 7% seroprevalence while doing what they're doing, what does that say about the disease?

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I would say it's very encouraging.

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Is it? Im guessing the Swedes were hoping to take their lumps and get this over with quickly. If this is still dragging along when winter arrives it could get ugly.

I've worked with a lot of Swedes, and they've got funny euphemisms for all the illnesses they get when stuck inside together over the long winter. Norovirus is known as the " winter vomiting" there since everyone gets it.

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On the flip side, and probably more in line with what PJ is thinking - if the Swedes don't have noticeably more immunity, it may point to the virus not being nearly as communicable as we thought

it would be encouraging insofar as even mild social distancing works to significantly slow the spread

that might be not what they want, but it seems to be how the disease works

schools open, still not spreading as expected

BowSowy said:

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amercer said:

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PJYoung said:

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cone said:

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if Sweden can't get above 7% seroprevalence while doing what they're doing, what does that say about the disease?

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I would say it's very encouraging.

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Is it? Im guessing the Swedes were hoping to take their lumps and get this over with quickly. If this is still dragging along when winter arrives it could get ugly.

I've worked with a lot of Swedes, and they've got funny euphemisms for all the illnesses they get when stuck inside together over the long winter. Norovirus is known as the " winter vomiting" there since everyone gets it.

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On the flip side, and probably more in line with what PJ is thinking - if the Swedes don't have noticeably more immunity, it may point to the virus not being nearly as communicable as we thought

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With the #s worldwide falling or at least staying flat and testing going up massively I feel really good at the moment about where we are at with this.

Georgia opened up on April 24th and their #s have stayed flat despite their testing quadrupling. Their positive test rate went from 20% in April to 5% now. The feared 2nd wave isn't happening this summer in the United States.

And yes, maybe Sweden is in for a world of hurt this winter because they are only at 7% infected right now instead of 30 or 40% but for now I see it as good news.

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And yes, maybe Sweden is in for a world of hurt this winter because they are only at 7% infected right now instead of 30 or 40% but for now I see it as good news.

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Why would Sweden be in for a world of hurt this winter relative to anyone else?

Squadron7 said:

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Quote:

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And yes, maybe Sweden is in for a world of hurt this winter because they are only at 7% infected right now instead of 30 or 40% but for now I see it as good news.

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Why would Sweden be in for a world of hurt this winter relative to anyone else?

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I think his point is only 7% have it, so it's possible, maybe even likely a second wave will come test will spread faster in the winter like the flu does. Might even be what we see here in Texas as the population that has it is pretty low currently.

It seems to logically make sense. Maybe the only reason it doesn't happen is the virus isn't as transmittable as we thought, which maybe is something the 7% shows in Sweden.

At the end of they day, I personally believe there is a lot more we're just going to have to wait and we what happens.

If they weren't in a world of hurt this spring or right now, why would they be in a world of hurt in the fall with some immunity?

Yeah, this is a hammer looking for a nail. To have more or less blown this thing off and 7% of people got infected, should be viewed as a good thing. You then look at NYC and see why 20% of them got it and try to be more like Sweeden, not less.

Sweeden done F-ed up if the immunity they got is not durable, but in the absence of that information you can say they did a great if not the best job of all. I do admit, they probably went all in on the "Immunity is durable" thing a little too quickly, but it seems to be paying off.

culdeus said:

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Yeah, this is a hammer looking for a nail. To have more or less blown this thing off and 7% of people got infected, should be viewed as a good thing. You then look at NYC and see why 20% of them got it and try to be more like Sweeden, not less.

Sweeden done F-ed up if the immunity they got is not durable, but in the absence of that information you can say they did a great if not the best job of all. I do admit, they probably went all in on the "Immunity is durable" thing a little too quickly, but it seems to be paying off.

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Why too quickly? In absence of evidence to the contrary, everything we know about virology, biology, immunology would indicate durable immunity (although probably not permanent).

And even the suggestions of people getting it a second time (positive tests after recovery) as been shown to be a false indicator. The studies in SK showed those repeat positives were not infectious virus and those people also had no symptoms.

It is like the world threw everything we have learned about virology and immunology for the past 100 years and threw it out the window, assuming instead that this virus was the exception to everything until proven otherwise.

Squadron7 said:

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Quote:

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And yes, maybe Sweden is in for a world of hurt this winter because they are only at 7% infected right now instead of 30 or 40% but for now I see it as good news.

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Why would Sweden be in for a world of hurt this winter relative to anyone else?

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I was only referencing this quote above mine:

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If this is still dragging along when winter arrives it could get ugly.

I've worked with a lot of Swedes, and they've got funny euphemisms for all the illnesses they get when stuck inside together over the long winter. Norovirus is known as the " winter vomiting" there since everyone gets it.

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GAC06 said:

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If they weren't in a world of hurt this spring or right now, why would they be in a world of hurt in the fall with some immunity?

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I'm not saying they will be. But they kind of got it on the back end of spring like we did, right? Sweden and us didn't get it during peak spread season like Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb. Like us, summer seems to be helping slow the spread just as it is with most viruses as people are less congregated with one another, which seems to be the way this virus spreads most effectively.

My point is 7% is not all that significant if your saying herd immunity might be in the 50-70% range. 7% doesn't slow the spread nearly as quickly during peak spread times. I think they'll see a second wave in the fall/winter. I think numbers wise that just makes sense if you're assuming this virus is just as contagious, if not more, than the flu.

I also want to clarify that I have no idea if they'll be in a world of hurt in the fall/winter. I'm only commenting on I think they'll have a second wave during that period as I think the USA will as well.

I would like to also say a lot of people look at Sweden has having everything open, but they did ban large gatherings and school for the ages 16+. From what we know now, it does look like the virus most effectively transmits via close contact with people. I personally think that's the largest player for why they don't look like they're in a world of hurt right now.

I'm curious what happens in the fall/winter if Sweden allows large gatherings. If a second wave starts to show, do they ban them again?

Edit to say that I think Sweden thought this virus would go through there population faster than just 7%. I think the one good thing the 7% shows is that the virus just might not transmit as fast as people thought, so maybe if they do have a second wave with large gatherings allowed, they will be good to go based on transmission rate alone.

Death projections for Sweden have now fallen to below 6,000 by September 1st. The other projections ended August 4th.

Looking better all the time.

https://covid19-projections.com/sweden

Now you support projections?

The facts are, Sweden has had the world's highest corona death rate per capita two weeks in a row.

Carolin_Gallego said:

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Now you support projections?

The facts are, Sweden has had the world's highest corona death rate per capita two weeks in a row.

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Answer this: what is flattening the curve about - making sure hospitals are prepared and not overwhelmed or saving as many lives as possible?

Beat40 said:

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Carolin_Gallego said:

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Now you support projections?

The facts are, Sweden has had the world's highest corona death rate per capita two weeks in a row.

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Answer this: what is flattening the curve about - making sure hospitals are prepared and not overwhelmed or saving as many lives as possible?

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I mean, ideally both.

You never ever post any answers. Why?

Try making a logical argument instead of whining and derailing every thread. Thanks.

For Carolyn

From Dr. Coates - More positive news...

For the people still living in fear of Covid-19.
You don't have to here is the latest estimates of mortality rates from the CDC which is not far off of the numbers I gave you the other night. Basically if you are under 50 it is less than the flu and over 50 greater than the flu.

Per CDC, symptomatic case fatality rates by age:
0-49 yrs: 0.02% - 0.1%
50-64: 0.1% - 0.6%
65+: 0.6% - 3.2%
All ages: 0.2% - 1%

Symptomatic case hospitalization rates by age:
0-49 yrs: 1.3% - 2.6%
50-64: 3.6% - 5.7%
65+: 5.2% - 10%
All ages: 2.8% - 4.1%

The CDC estimates that between 20% and 50% of infections are asymptomatic.

As for Asymptomatic patients. Even more reasons to not live in fear as new study shows they may not be as infectious as we once suspected.
In this study they followed all of the contacts of 35 asymptomatic patients. This included hospital staff, family members and patients, who were routinely screened. This totaled up to 455 contacts 224 hospital staffs, 196 family members and 35 patients who had been exposed. They followed all of these 455 contacts who were exposed to asymptomatic patients. The median contact time was 4 days for patients and 5 days for family members. During the quarantine seven patients plus one family member developed mild respiratory symptoms and fever. There were no severe respiratory symptoms. All CT images showed no signs of Covid-19 and all tested negative. In summary they concluded all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

[url=https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC7219423%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0mb4WMuQnssXTxbDGGtax8mI0ob0OgL_AbVq49tdcCfiBM148PwVLGgvQ&h=AT01wg0OqDumloJdhwufKREZb48YEeNEj6Dy59t5_npRkOTzMfzUTPEwpnOZhKASj0WMBlLeOT6BsQBxyZMOMhVqy31xeu6Z1S5NC5cDfVuw8K6HPeTQIuk4xnVsmIPHNY6Wy8entDie22ZhYL3L_TGyDwo3zz_QZWwJ8Mj6FFHeJEmNVtn1GpG1B6FjJMclf0dEloLnG1hu5tKGiV8349CZtC3vI8t77GZNtWi0Z6FICHJafDNgbEPI1WVSPQsNE_rGu1z1k60sBlW6GIrMJ92D3VICHvSSgVAfxJH9sXmmi_IsdmBo0R2w04JBWjeriY_Ix-uzvxyyDrYL0fRhFeWD1DQnSzCSd4l1dmt6mNYDzlfPSib_Z8b7F0IbCHNLZLAYaI4r3eQgAHClqZikhzLX_kw4Dc1c1b4lYOM43YeSzswemYYiCqtjnXThqPMxuU8F95ogflbIZXul_E-wa6X2doM2OlLN9fN0oG-xTMnyllmHlyxQXMqcy3WuTwwyxvuw0Ux4Y8XamwiBbr4FZZ6NumnD1gj-C3leezUKu0hIXnoiyukKC4VY1SMwDiS3wT7iU4raqT-Ms_C6q4QmkG6a433w5jvMF-puCvKWDsJ9Yna9ZYb3y1BIfjXNmUXo1QHVYBRfNO0][/url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219423/