The only thing I can figure is a lot of their opponents played Tennessee and some other highly rated teams.

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A victory should never result in a drop in RPI.

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RPI is an average. Teams move up in the RPI not only because they increase their RPI, but teams because other teams drop.

If the average can't drop no matter who you beat, then the incentive of playing a tough schedule across the season shifts to an incentive of getting the average up high at the beginning of the season and then doing whatever it takes to not lose the rest of the way.

I think this place would very quickly lose its mind over mid-majors that get off to a hot non-conference start and then just seem stuck near the top of the rankings because they keep winning against crappy opponents.

I don't know for sure where they'd be, but seems no way a 43 win UConn team falls from 11th to 50th in such a system

Precisely why a weighted system for victories is needed. Beat a crap team get less points. Beat a great team earn more points. But, never have it that beating an IW would drop your RPI.

It would reward SOS as it relates to RPI.

Emilio Fantastico said:

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The only thing I can figure is a lot of their opponents played Tennessee and some other highly rated teams.

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A&M played a lot of opponents that played Tennessee and some other highly rated teams also.

I don't pretend to know the ins or outs of RPI so I don't know for sure why Maryland ranks so high with a rather mundane SOS but winning a lot matters and the Terps have an excellent winning %..

And when the numerical difference is only .005 the extra road games can get a team that handful of thousandths

The committee may hesitate sending them there since they have already played each other twice this year.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Basketball and Chain said:

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Maryland played 26 road games.

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Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others

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Yup. 44 total wins, 19 which are on the road along with only 2 home losses --> Lots of positive multipliers and just a couple negative.

and on the flipside...TCU is RPI #34 for multiple good reasons.

17 of the Frogs' 35 wins -- almost half -- are against Q4 teams.

TCU is only 8-13 vs. the top 50...and 15-17 vs. the top 100 --- those are not good marks.

the Frogs lost series to Kentucky, Florida State, West Virginia, OU, and t.u.

mid-30's is about right

djktamu said:

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They played at Towson, at Delaware, at Campbell. Rutgers plays in the same conference, went 22-9 on the road, yet has a #41 ranking in the RPI. A #3 to #41 ranking is justified when a game and a half separated Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten? The RPI makes no sense. The analytics are way outdated, and I hope the committee does not weigh the RPI much into their decision making.

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Rutgers best 2 road games were at #28 Coastal Carolina and #64 VCU.

Maryland played 3 at #14 DBU, 1 at #25 East Carolina, 3 at #41 Rutgers, and 3 at #58 Campbell.

RPI isn't perfect by any means but picking out a couple of midweek games as if Rutgers didn't play Iona, Saint Peter's, Princeton and bunch of other crap isn't the argument

RED AG 98 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Basketball and Chain said:

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Maryland played 26 road games.

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Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others

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Yup. 44 total wins, 19 which are on the road along with only 2 home losses --> Lots of positive multipliers and just a couple negative.

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You call it a "multiplier"... Is the home/road adjustment actually multiplied in the formula, so that playing on the road vs. a top team gets a greater adjustment than playing on the road vs. a crap team?

W said:

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and on the flipside...TCU is RPI #34 for multiple good reasons.

17 of the Frogs' 35 wins -- almost half -- are against Q4 teams.

TCU is only 8-13 vs. the top 50...and 15-17 vs. the top 100 --- those are not good marks.

the Frogs lost series to Kentucky, Florida State, West Virginia, OU, and t.u.

mid-30's is about right

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Problem is, all of those metrics -- Q4, top 50, top 100 -- are based on the flawed RPI metric, so who knows how good they really are?

If they don't tweak RPI this season they why don't we just start changing a bunch of our Tuesday night games to road games? Get the win and the road bump

Heck some of those early season directional schools just play them at their park

Not sure if we change schedules in 1 offseason but if you could do it…don't see why we couldn't tweak things

SchizoAg said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Basketball and Chain said:

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Maryland played 26 road games.

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Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others

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Yup. 44 total wins, 19 which are on the road along with only 2 home losses --> Lots of positive multipliers and just a couple negative.

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You call it a "multiplier"... Is the home/road adjustment actually multiplied in the formula, so that playing on the road vs. a top team gets a greater adjustment than playing on the road vs. a crap team?

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A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.


By the way, basketball's NET uses 1.4 and 0.6.

bullard21k said:

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If they don't tweak RPI this season they why don't we just start changing a bunch of our Tuesday night games to road games? Get the win and the road bump

Heck some of those early season directional schools just play them at their park

Not sure if we change schedules in 1 offseason but if you could do it…don't see why we couldn't tweak things

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Because road games don't put butts in Blue Bell.
I would only go in the road for a marquee matchup like
Texas
Tech
TCU
along with the occasional DBU, Texas State, rice, Houston

What I would like to see is us doing a four game series home or road against a high profile baseball team.

Someone recently posted that the formula for RPI is based on 25% of a team's record, 50% of a team's opponent's record, and 25% of their opponent's opponent's' record. Seems like a good tweak would be to allocate a higher winning percentage to a team's record at the expense of the other two factors.

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I would love to have a California road trip every year to start the season. Play a San Diego team and pepperdine or UCSB.

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Back in the day, we would often start our season at UT Pan-Am!!

And I'd like to see us go back to Arizona. We played them out there every other year during MJ's tenure, but I never made the roadie. There was always some sort of gemology convention in Tuscon that weekend, which made rooms scarce and pricey.

SchizoAg said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.

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That's ******ed. Historically, crap teams have tended to travel to good teams, for several reasons. That's a big factor in this statistic. It's not actually twice as hard to win on the road as at home. This is a big problem with the current RPI formula.

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Meh. I think I've seen a stat that over 60% of conference games are won by homes teams, so 65% probably isn't that far off. But either way, you have to keep in mind that this is only 25% of the RPI. The other 75% accounts for SoS which is why beating a ****ty team on the road still doesn't help you nearly as much as beating a good team on the road. See the posts about Maryland vs Rutgers.

Not far off becomes a big deal when differences are 0.0001.

Getting a neutral site win or two against some fellow Top 20 RPI teams should help move us to the top of the current group we're bunched tightly together with.

TXAggie2011 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.

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That's ******ed. Historically, crap teams have tended to travel to good teams, for several reasons. That's a big factor in this statistic. It's not actually twice as hard to win on the road as at home. This is a big problem with the current RPI formula.

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Meh. I think I've seen a stat that over 60% of conference games are won by homes teams, so 65% probably isn't that far off.

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I find that hard to believe. Baseball has a lesser homefield advantage than other sports. In MLB home teams win about 54% of the time.
https://sabr.org/journal/article/home-field-advantage/

Even if it's 60%, when you consider that the difference between 50% and 67% is the difference between "just as hard" and "twice as hard"... 60% is actually "that far off" from 67%.

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But either way, you have to keep in mind that this is only 25% of the RPI. The other 75% accounts for SoS which is why beating a ****ty team on the road still doesn't help you nearly as much as beating a good team on the road. See the posts about Maryland vs Rutgers.

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The error propagates through that 75% to compound the effect. Teams that play a lot of teams that play a lot of road games (i.e. teams in crap conferences) benefit.

Unfortunately Florida plummeted this weekend so we that won't happen in the first game like it was looking there for a bit. Arky is potential game 2 and while they're a great team theIr rpi is worse than ours. Will need to win a couple to have a potential good RPI matchup now.

Florida is still Top 25. Their actual RPI figure didn't really drop.

Arkansas is a bit worse.

But neutral site games against Top 40 RPI teams are nice bumps.

The real prize, of course, is a game against UT. But Vandy, Auburn, or UGA would be pretty sweet, too.

Keegan99 said:

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Getting a neutral site win or two against some fellow Top 20 RPI teams should help move us to the top of the current group we're bunched tightly together with.

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What if South Carolina gets on a heater and we play them twice?

So per this year's RPI, in 2023, we need to schedule 50% of non-conference schedule on the road. No more 22 games at Blue Bell with one away series and one tourney.

Amirite?