***2022 RPI Tracker***

129,682 Views | 884 Replies | Last: 7 mo ago by 85AustinAg
dabo man
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I keep having this thought that we're going to wind up on the Caprock.

As one of my best friends from childhood now works for the City of Lubbock, I'd have to figure out a way to make at least some of the games...
Chrundle the Great
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dermdoc said:

We are hosting.

Lance Uppercut
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Aggies: 36 [+17]

3. @Georgia (2-1) [+1]
10. @Texas (1-0) [-4]
27. Auburn (1-2) [-4]
30. @Alabama (1-2) [+17]
33. @LSU (2-1) [-3]
40. Penn (1-2) [-2]

53. Texas State (1-0) [+4]
69. Kentucky (2-1) [+4]
73. *Iowa (1-0) [+4]
83. Houston (0-1) [+10]

101. *Washington State (0-1) [-6]
107. Santa Clara (2-1) [-11]
111. *Wichita State (0-1) [+8}

146. Lamar (1-0) [+21]
178. Houston Baptist (1-0) [+2]
199. @Rice (1-0) [-1]
220. A&M Corpus-Christi (1-0) [-17]
229. Tarleton State (1-0) [-11]
267. Fordham (3-0) [-3]

Q1: 8-8
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0



Upcoming Schedule:

2. Dallas Baptist [E]
20. Arkansas [+8]
124. Sam Houston State [-24]
11. @Vanderbilt [+5]
235. UT-Arlington [-12]
62. South Carolina [-2]
80. Mississippi State [-11]
178. Incarnate Word [-46]
55. @Ole Miss [-7]
HoustonAg2106
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dermdoc said:

How does Mizzou have that good of RPI?
Missouri is 1-9 vs top 25 teams and their RPI is 27

I have no idea how RPI works
TexasLeaguer
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Getting 3 wins this week would be HUGE!
Sterling82
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HoustonAg2106 said:

dermdoc said:

How does Mizzou have that good of RPI?
Missouri is 1-9 vs top 25 teams and their RPI is 27

I have no idea how RPI works

I was looking at that yesterday...looked at it sideways, upside down, right side up and couldn't discern a single metric that gave them a better RPI than A&M. Yet there it is. Mysterious indeed.
dabo man
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Missouri has gone 16-2 against a non-conference schedule filled with patsies. Their SEC East schedule has been brutal enough that their SOS is still #21. They're being rewarding for beating the teams that they should (and no one else).
Chrundle the Great
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Also remember home/away factor into RPI weight. Mizzou has played series at Tennessee and at Vandy and they also kicked off the season on a 7 game road trip in Louisiana. Before conf play they only hosted 5 games.
HoseMad
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RPI up to 32 (+4) after DBU win. SOS - 17
CypressAg09
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I know we had some not so great losses early, but we got to be close to the top in the wins against ranked teams column.
dabo man
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RPI dropped from #32 to #34 with Texas' loss tonight.
Emilio Fantastico
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Yet they are probably still being considered for a national seed.
Dr Lane Trowlan
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CypressAg09 said:

I know we had some not so great losses early, but we got to be close to the top in the wins against ranked teams column.


I count 9 wins & 6 losses to ranked teams.
Sterling82
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Missouri picked up a 1 run win over a tier 3 opponent at home and moved up one spot. A&M picks up a 13 run win over #2 team at home and moves up...one spot. Yeah, sure, okay!
Luke The Drifter
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Sterling82 said:

Missouri picked up a 1 run win over a tier 3 opponent at home and moved up one spot. A&M picks up a 13 run win over #2 team at home and moves up...one spot. Yeah, sure, okay!

So many factors come into play. What did the other teams around you in the RPI do last night? How did your opponents do last night (did your strength of schedule go up or down?) How many percentage points (decimal places) were you ahead or behind the other teams around you in the RPI?

The RPI is a flawed system, that's for sure...but it does not simply operate like a human poll does. There's no real factor for margin of victory and there's allegedly no bias for being a media darling or anything like that.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Luke The Drifter
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I'm not going to pretend to know the difference between Warren Nolan's RPI, ELO, or any other computer ranking system. But A&M is currently #16 in the ELO and much closer in score to the team 3 spots below us than we are to the team one spot ahead of us. We actually moved up 9 spots in the ELO after beating DBU.

Warren Nolan ELO

Oregon
25-11
1620.91
15

Texas A&M
23-13
1614.56
16

TCU
25-12
1614.29
17

Florida
23-14
1613.54
18

Wake Forest
28-9
1611.97
19
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
twk
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Luke The Drifter said:

Sterling82 said:

Missouri picked up a 1 run win over a tier 3 opponent at home and moved up one spot. A&M picks up a 13 run win over #2 team at home and moves up...one spot. Yeah, sure, okay!

So many factors come into play. What did the other teams around you in the RPI do last night? How did your opponents do last night (did your strength of schedule go up or down?) How many percentage points (decimal places) were you ahead or behind the other teams around you in the RPI?

The RPI is a flawed system, that's for sure...but it does not simply operate like a human poll does. There's no real factor for margin of victory and there's allegedly no bias for being a media darling or anything like that.
This. RPI is a mathematical formula based on wins and losses, with a home/road factor applied for non-conference games. Note that a win at home in non-conference (even against a good DBU team) factors in to the formula as less meaningful than our road win against a woeful Rice team, although the relative strength of our opponents is factored in as another part of the equation. But, somewhat counterintuitively, who you beat (or lose to) doesn't matter: it's just who you play, where you play, and did you win or lose.

The SEC went 9-4 last night, which isn't very good, and most of those wins were against mediocre (at best) competition. That didn't help our numbers.
Sterling82
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twk said:

Luke The Drifter said:

Sterling82 said:

Missouri picked up a 1 run win over a tier 3 opponent at home and moved up one spot. A&M picks up a 13 run win over #2 team at home and moves up...one spot. Yeah, sure, okay!

So many factors come into play. What did the other teams around you in the RPI do last night? How did your opponents do last night (did your strength of schedule go up or down?) How many percentage points (decimal places) were you ahead or behind the other teams around you in the RPI?

The RPI is a flawed system, that's for sure...but it does not simply operate like a human poll does. There's no real factor for margin of victory and there's allegedly no bias for being a media darling or anything like that.
This. RPI is a mathematical formula based on wins and losses, with a home/road factor applied for non-conference games. Note that a win at home in non-conference (even against a good DBU team) factors in to the formula as less meaningful than our road win against a woeful Rice team, although the relative strength of our opponents is factored in as another part of the equation. But, somewhat counterintuitively, who you beat (or lose to) doesn't matter: it's just who you play, where you play, and did you win or lose.

The SEC went 9-4 last night, which isn't very good, and most of those wins were against mediocre (at best) competition. That didn't help our numbers.

Yeah, I get all of those intricacies. But when a team has a 1-9 tier 1 record and is front of a team with a 9-8 tier 1 record the inherent flaws scream out. I'm not the one to dig into it and wouldn't do so if I was but this one scenario makes me think the parameters need some adjustment.
Houstonag
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Just take care of business this weekend. Minimize giving up walks, stop looking at strikes, no errors.
Luke The Drifter
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Ten(?) or so years ago, the RPI formula was tweaked to give northern teams a little bit of help. Anyone north of a California to Texas to North Carolina line has to play the first month of the season on the road because of weather concerns. These teams were having to spend a lot more travel money and were wearing themselves out before conference play even began. So now, you get a HUGE amount of credit for playing road games. Not necessarily winning or losing road games...just a lot of credit for playing them.

The southern teams are starting to figure this out. As much as we in the SEC love to have as many home games as possible, it really helps the RPI to do what A&M, for example, has done. Tuesday road games at Rice, A&M-Corpus, and Texas benefit us a ton more than playing them all at home. I really wish we would do a true road non-conference series like we used to do. These tourneys are nice and I like playing teams we don't typically see on the schedule, but a weekend at Pepperdine, Arizona, or even South Alabama (I'm thinking of my golfing options here...) would be great in a lot of ways.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Texagtrojan
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Dr Lane Trowlan said:

CypressAg09 said:

I know we had some not so great losses early, but we got to be close to the top in the wins against ranked teams column.


I count 9 wins & 6 losses to ranked teams.


Bama and Auburn….neither were ranked when we played them
VegasAg86
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Aren't we 23-13?

Warren Nolan RPI
AgEng06
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It's updated now.
AggieMD95
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How is Dallas Baptist 2nd ?
SchizoAg
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AggieMD95 said:

How is Dallas Baptist 2nd ?
The RPI formula is heavily biased. It gives a lot of weight to away games and non-conference games. This is to encourage tough non-conference scheduling, at the expense of the integrity of the rankings.
ColoradoMooseHerd
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I would like to see the Aggies at the Sunken Diamond
Sq 17
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Definitely looks like a few teams have higher RPI,s BUT those teams are ahead of us because quirks in the formula. ( Mizzou for example )
Removing those teams from consideration how close is A&M to being considered as a first round host ?
Given the Nolan ELO of 18 maybe the Ags are already there.
Luke The Drifter
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Sq 17 said:

Definitely looks like a few teams have higher RPI,s BUT those teams are ahead of us because quirks in the formula. ( Mizzou for example )
Removing those teams from consideration how close is A&M to being considered as a first round host ?
Given the Nolan ELO of 18 maybe the Ags are already there.

We're closer than most people think. Our strength of schedule will continue to climb over the next 5 weeks - just have to make sure we win at least 3 of the next weekend series and avoid getting swept if we don't win the series.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
TXAggie2011
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SchizoAg said:

AggieMD95 said:

How is Dallas Baptist 2nd ?
The RPI formula is heavily biased. It gives a lot of weight to away games and non-conference games. This is to encourage tough non-conference scheduling, at the expense of the integrity of the rankings.


No, the RPI doesn't weigh non-conference games any differently than conference games. Yes, it does weigh award away wins more than a home win, and punishes home losses more than an away loss.

DBU has played a very difficult schedule to this point and won their fair share.

It will sort itself out as the conference schedule goes along and DBU plays more and more weaker teams.
twk
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TXAggie2011 said:

SchizoAg said:

AggieMD95 said:

How is Dallas Baptist 2nd ?
The RPI formula is heavily biased. It gives a lot of weight to away games and non-conference games. This is to encourage tough non-conference scheduling, at the expense of the integrity of the rankings.


No, the RPI doesn't weigh non-conference games any differently than conference games. Yes, it does weigh award away wins more than a home win, and punishes home losses more than an away loss.

DBU has played a very difficult schedule to this point and won their fair share.

It will sort itself out as the conference schedule goes along and DBU plays more and more weaker teams.
RPI awards different values for home wins/losses and road wins/losses, but only in non-conference play. It's something like a home conference win is a 1.0, while a home non-conference win is a .7, and a road non-conference win is a 1.3. I don't remember the exact numbers, but that gives you an idea how it works.
TXAggie2011
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Road wins are counted as 1.3 wins while road losses are counted as 0.7 of a loss. Home losses are counted as 1.3 losses and home wins are counted as 0.7 of a win.

But this applies across the whole season. There's no differentiation between conference and non-conference in the RPI.

There are some statisticians out there who have argued they should make it more like 1.2-0.8 to more accurately reflect home field advantage. The current adjustments were based on home teams winning about 60-65% of the time or something like that. I forget the exact %
twk
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Quote:

But this applies across the whole season. There's no differentiation between conference and non-conference in the RPI.
I'm pretty sure that's not correct. They were concerned about giving bonus points to the northern teams that have to travel to start the season. No reason to give a road bonus for conference play.
dcaggie04
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twk said:

Quote:

But this applies across the whole season. There's no differentiation between conference and non-conference in the RPI.
I'm pretty sure that's not correct. They were concerned about giving bonus points to the northern teams that have to travel to start the season. No reason to give a road bonus for conference play.


Can you provide any sources for this contention? I have seen nothing that says the adjustments are only for non-con games.
twk
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dcaggie04 said:

twk said:

Quote:

But this applies across the whole season. There's no differentiation between conference and non-conference in the RPI.
I'm pretty sure that's not correct. They were concerned about giving bonus points to the northern teams that have to travel to start the season. No reason to give a road bonus for conference play.


Can you provide any sources for this contention? I have seen nothing that says the adjustments are only for non-con games.
I've been looking for that, but can't find it. Perhaps I'm wrong. However, I know they discussed doing it this way (making the distinction between non-conference and conference games) because doing it for conference plays makes zero sense. The whole point was to reward teams who voluntarily go on the road to play. Your conference schedule is not some voluntary choice. Now, that should mostly balance out, unless you have a team that is particularly good on the road in conference play, but it just isn't logical to give A&M, for example, bonus points for winning games in Athens and dock them for winning games in College Station as that has nothing to do with the concern which caused the adjustment (northern teams having to hit the road to start the season).

I've got to hit the road to make it down to College Station for tonight's game, but I'll do some further looking.
SchizoAg
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If non-conference SoS is not weighted separately, then why is it shown as a column in the rankings table? They don't show conference SoS, just non-conference SoS and overall SoS.
 
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