Texagtrojan said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Texagtrojan said:

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I'm interested in how Maryland is so high. SOS of 113, a worse record against Q4 teams, etc. RPi needs an overhaul

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They're 38-10. That's the 4th best win % in the country. That's a big part of "how."

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38-10 against the 113th ranked schedule. Not impressed

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If you want to weigh strength of schedule even more than it is now, fine. But we'll end up with even more of the threads and posts complaining that your RPI ranking can drop even if you win a game.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Texagtrojan said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Texagtrojan said:

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I'm interested in how Maryland is so high. SOS of 113, a worse record against Q4 teams, etc. RPi needs an overhaul

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They're 38-10. That's the 4th best win % in the country. That's a big part of "how."

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38-10 against the 113th ranked schedule. Not impressed

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If you want to weigh strength of schedule even more than it is now, fine. But we'll end up with even more of the threads and posts complaining that your RPI can drop even if you win a game.

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Oh I agree with you, but it's much easier to get that many wins when your competition is that low.

painful loss for Southern Miss tonight --- RPI plummeted into the mid-20's

They're in a free fall. That's 5 losses in 8 games

With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

This is how tourney results and the laziness of the committee might play out

Imagine the 8 th seed and 12 th seed 15 th seed groups
The committee will have
2-4 seeds filled out with the host TBD



IMO One of the final national seeds will go to the " best " * team in the west

Best in the west get an 8
2 nd in west gets a 12
3 rd in the west get a 15
4 th in the west is a possibly
2 seed somewhere

Everybody has six games left and the tourney
Lots can happen to shake up 1,2,3,4
In the west

This also presumes Ga plays well enough down the stretch to get a 5
And UT is a lock at 1 or 2

* best as determined by whatever criteria the committee chooses that day

twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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Let me throw something else out there and tell me what you think. There are three ways for us to get to 18 SEC wins:

2-1 MSU and 2-1 Ole Miss (most likely)
3-0 MSU and 1-2 Ole Miss (likely)
1-2 MSU and 3-0 Ole Miss (very unlikely)

I believe the second scenario leaves us with the best RPI. The third scenario could leave us with an RPI in the 30's. The first scenario (if South Carolina is any indication) would leave us with an RPI in mid 20's after State. Then the question is does two wins in Oxford, with a hopeful slight bump in RPI from the SEC tourney get us back into the teens?

threeanout said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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Let me throw something else out there and tell me what you think. There are three ways for us to get to 18 SEC wins:

2-1 MSU and 2-1 Ole Miss (most likely)
3-0 MSU and 1-2 Ole Miss (likely)
1-2 MSU and 3-0 Ole Miss (very unlikely)

I believe the second scenario leaves us with the best RPI. The third scenario could leave us with an RPI in the 30's. The first scenario (if South Carolina is any indication) would leave us with an RPI in mid 20's after State. Then the question is does two wins in Oxford, with a hopeful slight bump in RPI from the SEC tourney get us back into the teens?

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My take: probably. Part of what hurt with the SC loss was that it was at home. That factor matters much more than opponents % and opp/opp %.

CapCityAg89 said:

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threeanout said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

---

If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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Let me throw something else out there and tell me what you think. There are three ways for us to get to 18 SEC wins:

2-1 MSU and 2-1 Ole Miss (most likely)
3-0 MSU and 1-2 Ole Miss (likely)
1-2 MSU and 3-0 Ole Miss (very unlikely)

I believe the second scenario leaves us with the best RPI. The third scenario could leave us with an RPI in the 30's. The first scenario (if South Carolina is any indication) would leave us with an RPI in mid 20's after State. Then the question is does two wins in Oxford, with a hopeful slight bump in RPI from the SEC tourney get us back into the teens?

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My take: probably. Part of what hurt with the SC loss was that it was at home. That factor matters much more than opponents % and opp/opp %.

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Yes, I agree. So one loss to State at home who has an almost identical winning percentage as South Carolina should produce a very similar RPI drop. Can we recover to the teens by taking 2 of 3 from Ole Miss on the road?

threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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The committee will decide what the best team in the west is and I think that team gets a national seed

I think five teams from the SEC get to host which means Vandy is going to be at two seed that nobody wants to play

And the fourth place team in the west is going to be a two sed that nobody wants to have at their regional

Is elite pitching down nationally this year or just in the SEC?

Seems like the PAC might have some arms, maybe?

Keegan99 said:

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Is elite pitching down nationally this year or just in the SEC?

Seems like the PAC might have some arms, maybe?

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I don't think it's that pitching is down -- rather, hitting is up, because of the increased value proposition of going to college with NIL vs. toiling for years in obscurity in the minor leagues.

SchizoAg said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Is elite pitching down nationally this year or just in the SEC?

Seems like the PAC might have some arms, maybe?

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I don't think it's that pitching is down -- rather, hitting is up, because of the increased value proposition of going to college with NIL vs. toiling for years in obscurity in the minor leagues.

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I'd buy that if it was a trend, but this year is more of a standout compared to recent years. The elite, first-round Friday guys don't really exist in the SEC in 2022.

twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

It's going to be interesting how the cancellation of the IW game affects the RPI calculations, particularly on the Boyd's World needs report. Our ROWP changes from 0.494 to 0.552 now that we won't have the IW anchor game.

7 teams fighting for 5 maybe 6 host spots
If we are 3 in the west we are on the bubble
4 th and we are a 2 seed

Sq 17 said:

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7 teams fighting for 5 maybe 6 host spots
If we are 3 in the west we are on the bubble
4 th and we are a 2 seed

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18 wins will be 2nd or 3rd in the West and again, lock to host.

Dropped to 21 after Georgia lost

HoustonAg2106 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

---

If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

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18 wins is a top 20 RPI and a lock to host, book it.

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You are dreaming. You think if we go 1-2 vs State and 3-0 vs Ole Miss we are in the top 20?? We won't be top 20 if we go 2-1 vs each team.

Texagtrojan said:

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Dropped to 21 after Georgia lost

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Down another notch to 22.

threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

---

If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

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18 wins is a top 20 RPI and a lock to host, book it.

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You are dreaming. You think if we go 1-2 vs State and 3-0 vs Ole Miss we are in the top 20?? We won't be top 20 if we go 2-1 vs each team.

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We might be right at 20, but we will be top 20 and hosting if we are 18-12 in the SEC. Watch.

Edit: Don't forget Hoover by the way, that counts towards the RPI before the hosts are selected too

HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

---

If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

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18 wins is a top 20 RPI and a lock to host, book it.

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You are dreaming. You think if we go 1-2 vs State and 3-0 vs Ole Miss we are in the top 20?? We won't be top 20 if we go 2-1 vs each team.

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We might be right at 20, but we will be top 20 and hosting if we are 18-12 in the SEC. Watch.

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We are at # 22 now. Dropped 3 spots tonight after Georgia loss. It's a formula, not a coaches or sportswriter's vote. You can't add 2 + 2 to = 5.

Edit: Correct on Hoover, as it can only help our RPI.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

---

If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

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18 wins is a top 20 RPI and a lock to host, book it.

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You are dreaming. You think if we go 1-2 vs State and 3-0 vs Ole Miss we are in the top 20?? We won't be top 20 if we go 2-1 vs each team.

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We might be right at 20, but we will be top 20 and hosting if we are 18-12 in the SEC. Watch.

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We are at # 22 now. Dropped 3 spots tonight after Georgia loss. It's a formula, not a coaches or sportswriter's vote. You can't add 2 + 2 to = 5.

Edit: Correct on Hoover, as it can only help our RPI.

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We'll see, I know Kendall Rogers has said 18 wins gets us a host spot easily

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This is what he said, focus on the very last part....."if the RPI is in the 20-25 range"

"Having your RPI drop down to 24 because of one loss isn't optimal, but the Aggies are sitting at 14 SEC wins with two weekends to go. If A&M wins both of those series and is sitting at 18 league wins entering the SEC tournament, I find it very hard to believe they wouldn't be a Top 16 host, at minimum, even if the RPI is in the 20-25 range."

Ole Miss hosted back in 2016 with an RPI of like 22. They were 18-12, good for 4th in the SEC West and 7th in the SEC.

They went on a run in Hoover. That both helped their RPI and gave them some more quality wins.

Some games to watch tonight, some series to watch this weekend...

#23 Clemson at #15 Virginia...Clemson has a 9-14 ACC record so they're looking for a miracle to get back into hosting consideration but they will shoot up the RPI with a good series...Virginia is looking to lock up a regional bid and fight their way back into national seed discussion. UVa plays at #12 Louisville next week.

#12 Louisville at #7 Virginia Tech...Both are trying to track down Miami for the ACC crown. Virginia Tech can make themselves a virtual national seed lock with a good series while Louisville is currently solidly on the bubble with the #12 RPI but are on track to win the ACC Atlantic.

#6 Miami at #18 Florida State...Miami is trying to lock up the ACC title, they have a 1.5 game lead over Louisville, and have another tough series vs. #11 Notre Dame next week. Florida State is chasing a regional---their finish will impact Texas A&M quite a bit. They have every chance to lock it up, and control their own destiny with 3x Miami, 1x at #13 Florida, and 3x at #29 North Carolina to finish the year.

#21 Stanford at #91 Utah...Stanford is playing for a regional. They can move up with some strong play on the road. This will also impact A&M quite a bit. Utah's lost 6 games in a row. A Stanford sweep and they suddenly look really, really good for a regional.

#94 Michigan at #15 Maryland...Maryland is well on course to win the Big 10. The big question is: Can they get themselves a national seed? An RPI of 15 and a down Big 10 suggests no but with a lot of wins and a lot of luck, they could have an outside chance.

threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

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18 wins is a top 20 RPI and a lock to host, book it.

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You are dreaming. You think if we go 1-2 vs State and 3-0 vs Ole Miss we are in the top 20?? We won't be top 20 if we go 2-1 vs each team.

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We might be right at 20, but we will be top 20 and hosting if we are 18-12 in the SEC. Watch.

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We are at # 22 now. Dropped 3 spots tonight after Georgia loss. It's a formula, not a coaches or sportswriter's vote. You can't add 2 + 2 to = 5.

Edit: Correct on Hoover, as it can only help our RPI.

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We'll see, I know Kendall Rogers has said 18 wins gets us a host spot easily

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This is what he said, focus on the very last part....."if the RPI is in the 20-25 range"

"Having your RPI drop down to 24 because of one loss isn't optimal, but the Aggies are sitting at 14 SEC wins with two weekends to go. If A&M wins both of those series and is sitting at 18 league wins entering the SEC tournament, I find it very hard to believe they wouldn't be a Top 16 host, at minimum, even if the RPI is in the 20-25 range."

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What's your point? He said we will be hosting even if the RPI drops. I personally think it won't if we win our last two series plus Hoover coming up after that, but at the end of the day I don't care what the RPI is as long as we are hosting.

I think if we win both series we host. Throw in a sweep or two and national seed is a real possibility.

The only 18 win scenario that I think has us traveling as a #2 is losing 2 of 3 at home this weekend to an awful State team and then sweeping Ole Miss. We might be looking at a mid 30s or worse RPI in that case. Of course we'd still have Hoover but I believe we'd have signifiant work to do there to host in this scenario.

Anyway, let's make this a "moo" point and BTHOClanga this weekend. A sweep would be amazing.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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threeanout said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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twk said:

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threeanout said:

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With the assumption that we don't win the west, what is the general consensus on how high our RPI can be and still host, 1) Host a Super, 2) Host a Regional?

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If we don't win the West, then I think we'd have to be 12 or better to be in consideration for a top 8 seed. If we get 18 wins, we're hosting a regional, and I think our RPI would be the teens going into the SEC tournament. Might get one with 17, but it would be dicey, as I think our RPI would be in the 20s (tournament could possibly bump it a little). You never want to count on tournament play to make a difference because it often doesn't, but, occasionally, the committee will use tournament results to justify their seeding.

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I don't think so at all. I seriously doubt if we get 18 SEC wins that our RPI will be in the teens. More likely 25-30. Although as others have pointed out, it matters which of our 6 games we win. Therefore I don't think it's a lock that we will host if we get to 18 wins, and it's actually more likely that we will be a 2 seed.

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18 wins is a top 20 RPI and a lock to host, book it.

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You are dreaming. You think if we go 1-2 vs State and 3-0 vs Ole Miss we are in the top 20?? We won't be top 20 if we go 2-1 vs each team.

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We might be right at 20, but we will be top 20 and hosting if we are 18-12 in the SEC. Watch.

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We are at # 22 now. Dropped 3 spots tonight after Georgia loss. It's a formula, not a coaches or sportswriter's vote. You can't add 2 + 2 to = 5.

Edit: Correct on Hoover, as it can only help our RPI.

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We'll see, I know Kendall Rogers has said 18 wins gets us a host spot easily

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This is what he said, focus on the very last part....."if the RPI is in the 20-25 range"

"Having your RPI drop down to 24 because of one loss isn't optimal, but the Aggies are sitting at 14 SEC wins with two weekends to go. If A&M wins both of those series and is sitting at 18 league wins entering the SEC tournament, I find it very hard to believe they wouldn't be a Top 16 host, at minimum, even if the RPI is in the 20-25 range."

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What's your point? He said we will be hosting even if the RPI drops. I personally think it won't if we win our last two series plus Hoover coming up after that, but at the end of the day I don't care what the RPI is as long as we are hosting.

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You are putting words in his mouth. I don't care what the RPI is either as long as we host, but the guys that select who is hosting do care. The committee will have a hard time selecting a team to host that has an RPI at 25 or above. I do not think it has ever happened.

Nolan has his website updated with his prediction that if we go 18-12 by virtue of sweeping Miss. St. and taking 1 of 3 against Ole Miss that our RPI rank would be #27 to end the regular season. Winning both series 2-1 would give us a lower ranking. I don't think 27 would be high enough to host, so we would most likely need to win a game or two in Hoover.