***2022 RPI Tracker***

129,392 Views | 884 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by 85AustinAg
HoustonAg2106
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ordRV80 said:

Please, somebody explain to me how Maryland, with 3 Q4 losses, only THREE Q1 wins and a SOS of 101 can have an RPI of #3????

I really am just trying to understand.
Emilio Fantastico
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The only thing I can figure is a lot of their opponents played Tennessee and some other highly rated teams.
TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

A victory should never result in a drop in RPI.
RPI is an average. Teams move up in the RPI not only because they increase their RPI, but teams because other teams drop.

If the average can't drop no matter who you beat, then the incentive of playing a tough schedule across the season shifts to an incentive of getting the average up high at the beginning of the season and then doing whatever it takes to not lose the rest of the way.

I think this place would very quickly lose its mind over mid-majors that get off to a hot non-conference start and then just seem stuck near the top of the rankings because they keep winning against crappy opponents.

I don't know for sure where they'd be, but seems no way a 43 win UConn team falls from 11th to 50th in such a system
LatinAggie1997
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Precisely why a weighted system for victories is needed. Beat a crap team get less points. Beat a great team earn more points. But, never have it that beating an IW would drop your RPI.

It would reward SOS as it relates to RPI.
djktamu
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's time to trash the RPI. That is all.
jkag89
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Emilio Fantastico said:

The only thing I can figure is a lot of their opponents played Tennessee and some other highly rated teams.
A&M played a lot of opponents that played Tennessee and some other highly rated teams also.

I don't pretend to know the ins or outs of RPI so I don't know for sure why Maryland ranks so high with a rather mundane SOS but winning a lot matters and the Terps have an excellent winning %..
Basketball and Chain
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Maryland played 26 road games.
Sq 17
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And when the numerical difference is only .005 the extra road games can get a team that handful of thousandths
jaxisback
How long do you want to ignore this user?
RPI was not designed to identify the teams with the best resumes, it was designed to weight the selection in favor of poor weather areas of the country. That's why it has the ridiculously heavy slant between home/away.

Unfortunately that engineered ranking method is rife with unintended consequences. As teams have become more sophisticated at gaming the model it has gotten worse as an overall performance metric.

It is now almost entirely flawed.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Que Te Gusta Mas said:

W said:

oh yes, it's a great list of 2-seeds this year:

Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida State, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Arizona, and several Big 12 teams


The 1 seed who gets one of those teams as their 2 seed and Ole Miss as their 3 seed is going to be pleased.
this reminds me...for a long time this year it looked like neither Ole Miss nor State would make the postseason.

which is the dream scenario of Southern Miss -- host a regional without fans from either school. But Ole Miss' late season surge will likely put the Rebels and their fans in Hattiesburg...to the chagrin of USM
TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Basketball and Chain said:

Maryland played 26 road games.


Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others
threeanout
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The committee may hesitate sending them there since they have already played each other twice this year.
RED AG 98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TXAggie2011 said:

Basketball and Chain said:

Maryland played 26 road games.


Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others
Yup. 44 total wins, 19 which are on the road along with only 2 home losses --> Lots of positive multipliers and just a couple negative.
djktamu
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
They played at Towson, at Delaware, at Campbell. Rutgers plays in the same conference, went 22-9 on the road, yet has a #41 ranking in the RPI. A #3 to #41 ranking is justified when a game and a half separated Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten? The RPI makes no sense. The analytics are way outdated, and I hope the committee does not weigh the RPI much into their decision making.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
and on the flipside...TCU is RPI #34 for multiple good reasons.

17 of the Frogs' 35 wins -- almost half -- are against Q4 teams.

TCU is only 8-13 vs. the top 50...and 15-17 vs. the top 100 --- those are not good marks.

the Frogs lost series to Kentucky, Florida State, West Virginia, OU, and t.u.

mid-30's is about right
TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
djktamu said:

They played at Towson, at Delaware, at Campbell. Rutgers plays in the same conference, went 22-9 on the road, yet has a #41 ranking in the RPI. A #3 to #41 ranking is justified when a game and a half separated Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten? The RPI makes no sense. The analytics are way outdated, and I hope the committee does not weigh the RPI much into their decision making.


Rutgers best 2 road games were at #28 Coastal Carolina and #64 VCU.

Maryland played 3 at #14 DBU, 1 at #25 East Carolina, 3 at #41 Rutgers, and 3 at #58 Campbell.

RPI isn't perfect by any means but picking out a couple of midweek games as if Rutgers didn't play Iona, Saint Peter's, Princeton and bunch of other crap isn't the argument
dermdoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I would hate to have Ole Miss or South Varolina as a two or three seed in my regional.

Pitching is suspect but man they can hit.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
SchizoAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
RED AG 98 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

Basketball and Chain said:

Maryland played 26 road games.


Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others
Yup. 44 total wins, 19 which are on the road along with only 2 home losses --> Lots of positive multipliers and just a couple negative.
You call it a "multiplier"... Is the home/road adjustment actually multiplied in the formula, so that playing on the road vs. a top team gets a greater adjustment than playing on the road vs. a crap team?
SchizoAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
W said:

and on the flipside...TCU is RPI #34 for multiple good reasons.

17 of the Frogs' 35 wins -- almost half -- are against Q4 teams.

TCU is only 8-13 vs. the top 50...and 15-17 vs. the top 100 --- those are not good marks.

the Frogs lost series to Kentucky, Florida State, West Virginia, OU, and t.u.

mid-30's is about right
Problem is, all of those metrics -- Q4, top 50, top 100 -- are based on the flawed RPI metric, so who knows how good they really are?
bullard21k
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If they don't tweak RPI this season they why don't we just start changing a bunch of our Tuesday night games to road games? Get the win and the road bump

Heck some of those early season directional schools just play them at their park

Not sure if we change schedules in 1 offseason but if you could do it…don't see why we couldn't tweak things
TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
SchizoAg said:

RED AG 98 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

Basketball and Chain said:

Maryland played 26 road games.


Winning 19 of them is what separates them from a lot of others
Yup. 44 total wins, 19 which are on the road along with only 2 home losses --> Lots of positive multipliers and just a couple negative.
You call it a "multiplier"... Is the home/road adjustment actually multiplied in the formula, so that playing on the road vs. a top team gets a greater adjustment than playing on the road vs. a crap team?


A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.


By the way, basketball's NET uses 1.4 and 0.6.
SchizoAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TXAggie2011 said:

A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.
That's ******ed. Historically, crap teams have tended to travel to good teams, for several reasons. That's a big factor in this statistic. It's not actually twice as hard to win on the road as at home. This is a big problem with the current RPI formula.
Wicked Good Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bullard21k said:

If they don't tweak RPI this season they why don't we just start changing a bunch of our Tuesday night games to road games? Get the win and the road bump

Heck some of those early season directional schools just play them at their park

Not sure if we change schedules in 1 offseason but if you could do it…don't see why we couldn't tweak things


Because road games don't put butts in Blue Bell.
I would only go in the road for a marquee matchup like
Texas
Tech
TCU
along with the occasional DBU, Texas State, rice, Houston

What I would like to see is us doing a four game series home or road against a high profile baseball team.
powerbelly
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I would love to have a California road trip every year to start the season. Play a San Diego team and pepperdine or UCSB.
McInnis
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Someone recently posted that the formula for RPI is based on 25% of a team's record, 50% of a team's opponent's record, and 25% of their opponent's opponent's' record. Seems like a good tweak would be to allocate a higher winning percentage to a team's record at the expense of the other two factors.
dabo man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

I would love to have a California road trip every year to start the season. Play a San Diego team and pepperdine or UCSB.
Back in the day, we would often start our season at UT Pan-Am!!
dabo man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And I'd like to see us go back to Arizona. We played them out there every other year during MJ's tenure, but I never made the roadie. There was always some sort of gemology convention in Tuscon that weekend, which made rooms scarce and pricey.
TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
SchizoAg said:

TXAggie2011 said:

A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.
That's ******ed. Historically, crap teams have tended to travel to good teams, for several reasons. That's a big factor in this statistic. It's not actually twice as hard to win on the road as at home. This is a big problem with the current RPI formula.
Meh. I think I've seen a stat that over 60% of conference games are won by homes teams, so 65% probably isn't that far off. But either way, you have to keep in mind that this is only 25% of the RPI. The other 75% accounts for SoS which is why beating a ****ty team on the road still doesn't help you nearly as much as beating a good team on the road. See the posts about Maryland vs Rutgers.
TAM85
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Not far off becomes a big deal when differences are 0.0001.
Keegan99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Getting a neutral site win or two against some fellow Top 20 RPI teams should help move us to the top of the current group we're bunched tightly together with.
SchizoAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TXAggie2011 said:

SchizoAg said:

TXAggie2011 said:

A road win counts as 1.3 wins, a home win counts at 0.7 wins. And vice versa for losses.

It's based on a statistic that something like 2/3rds of college baseball games are historically won by the home team.
That's ******ed. Historically, crap teams have tended to travel to good teams, for several reasons. That's a big factor in this statistic. It's not actually twice as hard to win on the road as at home. This is a big problem with the current RPI formula.
Meh. I think I've seen a stat that over 60% of conference games are won by homes teams, so 65% probably isn't that far off.
I find that hard to believe. Baseball has a lesser homefield advantage than other sports. In MLB home teams win about 54% of the time.
https://sabr.org/journal/article/home-field-advantage/

Even if it's 60%, when you consider that the difference between 50% and 67% is the difference between "just as hard" and "twice as hard"... 60% is actually "that far off" from 67%.
Quote:

But either way, you have to keep in mind that this is only 25% of the RPI. The other 75% accounts for SoS which is why beating a ****ty team on the road still doesn't help you nearly as much as beating a good team on the road. See the posts about Maryland vs Rutgers.
The error propagates through that 75% to compound the effect. Teams that play a lot of teams that play a lot of road games (i.e. teams in crap conferences) benefit.
RED AG 98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Unfortunately Florida plummeted this weekend so we that won't happen in the first game like it was looking there for a bit. Arky is potential game 2 and while they're a great team theIr rpi is worse than ours. Will need to win a couple to have a potential good RPI matchup now.
Keegan99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Florida is still Top 25. Their actual RPI figure didn't really drop.

Arkansas is a bit worse.

But neutral site games against Top 40 RPI teams are nice bumps.

The real prize, of course, is a game against UT. But Vandy, Auburn, or UGA would be pretty sweet, too.
Que Te Gusta Mas
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Keegan99 said:

Getting a neutral site win or two against some fellow Top 20 RPI teams should help move us to the top of the current group we're bunched tightly together with.


What if South Carolina gets on a heater and we play them twice?
MaroonStain
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So per this year's RPI, in 2023, we need to schedule 50% of non-conference schedule on the road. No more 22 games at Blue Bell with one away series and one tourney.

Amirite?
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.